STUDY OF THE EFFECTS OF REDUCING SYSTEMATIC ERRORS ON MONTHLY REGIONAL CLIMATE DYNAMICAL FORECAST     

曾新民  席朝笠 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2009,15(1):102-105

A nested-model system is constructed by embedding the regional climate model RegCM3 into a general circulation model for monthly-scale regional climate forecast over East China. The systematic errors are formulated for the region on the basis of 10-yr (1991-2000) results of the nested-model system, and of the datasets of the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and the temperature analysis of the National Meteorological Center (NMC), U.S.A., which are then used for correcting the original forecast by the system for the period 2001-2005. After the assessment of the original and corrected forecasts for monthly precipitation and surface air temperature, it is found that the corrected forecast is apparently better than the original, suggesting that the approach can be applied for improving monthly-scale regional climate dynamical forecast.  相似文献   

Study on the Effects of Land Surface Heterogeneitiesin Temperature and Moisture on Annual Scale Regional Climate Simulation     

ZENG Xinmin  LIU Jinbo  MA Zhuguo  SONG Shuai  XI Chaoli  WANG Hanjie 《大气科学进展》2010,27(1):154-163

The ``combined approach', which is suitable to represent subgrid land surface heterogeneity in both inter-patch and intra-patch variabilities, is employed in the Biosphere/Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) as a land surface component of the regional climate model RegCM3 to consider the heterogeneities in temperature and moisture at the land surface, and then annual-scale simulations for 5 years (1988--1992) were conducted. Results showed that on the annual scale, the models response to the heterogeneities is quite sensitive, and that the effect of the temperature heterogeneity (TH) is more pronounced than the moisture heterogeneity (MH). On the intraannual scale, TH may lead to more (less) precipitation in warm (cold) seasons, and hence lead to larger intraannual variability in precipitation; the major MH effects may be lagged by about 1 month during the warm, rainy seasons, inducing ～6% more precipitation for some sub-regions. Additionally, the modeled climate for the northern sub-regions shows larger sensitivities to the land surface heterogeneities than those for the southern sub-regions. Since state-of-art land surface models seldom account for surface intra-patch variabilities, this study emphasizes the importance of including this kind of variability in the land surface models.  相似文献   

山东省远距离热带气旋暴雨研究   总被引：22，自引：2，他引：20  

杨晓霞  陈联寿  刘诗军  薛德强  陈文选 《气象学报》2008,66(2):236-250

应用1971-2003年的山东降水资料、常规天气图资料、台风年签和NCEP资料,对在华南沿海登陆和活动的热带气旋在山东造成远距离暴雨的气候特征进行统计分析,对环流形势场进行合成分析.建立了山东省远距离热带气旋暴雨的天气学模型.分别计算分析了山东有和无远距离热带气旋暴雨合成的水汽和温湿能的收支.结果表明:在华南沿海登陆和活动的热带气旋与西风带环流系统和副热带高压相互作用在山东造成的远距离热带气旋暴雨年均2.5次.暴雨的范围广、强度大.出现暴雨的时间比热带气旋登陆时间滞后.在山东造成远距离暴雨的热带气旋在华南沿海登陆时,中心东部有一股东南风或偏南风低空急流指向内陆.中高纬度中低层西风带环流弱,位置偏北.500 hPa西风带中的偏北气流与副高边缘的偏南气流在山东境内汇合.低层850-700 hPa伴有低值系统影响,山东为气旋性环流控制.热带气旋登陆后其中心附近的中低层偏南风急流向北伸展,绕过副高脊线直达山东.在台风中心附近至山东之间建立起水汽和温湿能的输送通道,把高温高湿的暖湿空气源源不断地向山东输送.在台风登陆后12-48小时内,山东暴雨区上空有大量的水汽和温湿能的净流入.暖湿气流与西风带气流相汇合,产生辐合上升,造成暴雨.  相似文献   

山东增雨飞行安全气象条件预报方法介绍     

龚佃利  刘诗军 《山东气象》2008,28(1):1-4

介绍了影响飞机增雨飞行安全的积冰、颠簸、对流等不利气象条件的指数计算方法,及其对应的积冰、颠簸、对流发生强度等级标准。利用中尺度数值预报系统输出的温度、相对湿度、风场、过冷水含量等模式预报结果,制作了相关指数预报产品,并在飞机增雨天气保障业务中进行了应用。以2005年5月16—17日飞机增雨作业过程为例,简要分析了积冰指数等预报产品在安全飞行气象保障中的应用情况。  相似文献   

鄂尔多斯盆地盐池-定边地区长7烃源岩有机地球化学特征及沉积环境研究     

席胜利  刚文哲  杨清宇  陈果  刘亚洲  王宁  刘兰 《现代地质》2019,33(4):890-901

通过对鄂尔多斯盆地盐池-定边地区长7段烃源岩的分析,研究区长7段烃源岩有机碳平均含量为3.22%,生烃潜量均值为12.8 mg/g,氯仿沥青“A”均值为0.55%,可以划分为较好-好的烃源岩,具有良好的生烃潜力。利用有机岩石学分析、热解分析,并结合饱和烃生物标志物分析,发现研究区长7段烃源岩有机质类型以Ⅱ₁型和Ⅱ₂型为主,有机质以菌藻类生源为主,并伴有部分高等植物生源。烃源岩有机质成熟度R_o值介于0.42%~0.76%之间,并且热解T_max也主要集中在440~455 ℃之间,并且正构烷烃分布特征及甾、藿烷异构化参数说明烃源岩有机质处于低熟-成熟度阶段。根据饱和烃中甾藿烷参数、三环萜烷参数、伽马蜡烷指数、β-胡萝卜烷相对含量以及姥植比参数特征,研究区长7段烃源岩沉积环境为湖相淡水弱氧化-弱还原环境。  相似文献   

Applications of Light Stable Isotopes(C,O, H) in the Study of Sandstone Diagenesis: A Review     

XI Kelai  CAO Yingchang  LIN Miruo  LIU Keyu  WU Songtao  YUAN Guanghui  YANG Tian 《《地质学报》英文版》2019,93(1):213-226

This article reviews the applications of light stable isotope, including carbon, oxygen and hydrogen, in thestudies on origin and formation temperature of authigenic carbonate, quartz and clay minerals. Theoretical knowledge andanalytical methods for major light stable isotopes are introduced in detail. Negative and positive δ¹³C values indicatesignificant differences on the origin of carbonate cements. The δ¹⁸O value is an effective palaeotemperature scale forauthigenic minerals formation. Various fractionation equations between δ¹⁸O and temperature are proposed for carbonatecements, quartz cements and clay minerals, whose merit and demerit, applicable conditions are clarified clearly. Clumpedisotope analysis can reconstruct the temperature of carbonate precipitation with no requirement on the δ¹⁸O of initial waters,which makes temperature calculation of carbonate cements formation more convenient and accurate. Hydrogen and oxygenisotopes mainly reflect the origin of diagenetic fluid for clay mineral formation, providing reliable evidence for diageneticenvironment analysis. This work aims at helping researchers for better understanding the applications of light stable isotopein sandstone diagenesis.  相似文献   

The Ordovician Magnetostratigraphy and Cyclostratigraphy:A Review     

DAI Shuang  LUO Junhu  DEKKERS Mark  WANG Weiguo  QIANG Xiaoke  WU Huaichun  QIANG Lei  TIAN Chao  XI Haiyu  KRIJISMAN Wout 《《地质学报》英文版》2019,93(Z1):94-97

正The study of magnetostratigraphy and cyclostratigraphy in the last two decades has provided a great deal of opportunities to improve the geologic time scale.The Cenozoic and Mesozoic geologic timescale have been well calibrated (Gradstein et al..2012;Ogg et al,2012;Cohen et al.,2018).However,for the Paleozoic era the uncertainty over boundary ages are still very large.The reasons include that the geomagnetic polarity  相似文献   

易发程度指数法在宣州区地质灾害易发区划分中的应用研究     

张刘柱  陈雪梅  郑立博  席恺  李宗洋 《地质灾害与环境保护》2019,30(2):92-96

在分析地质灾害成因的基础上,选取了地形地貌、地质背景、气候、地质灾害点密度、人类工程活动等5个主要影响因素对宣州区地质灾害的易发性进行分区评价,并对区内的地质灾害易发区进行划分。根据分析评价结果,将宣州区划分为4个地质灾害易发区。分区结果较符合宣州区地质灾害发育实际情况,为宣州区的防灾减灾工作提供科学依据。  相似文献   

基于犯罪模式理论的犯罪出行空间特征与影响因素——以长春市南关区扒窃为例     

赵梓渝  刘大千  肖建红  王士君 《地理研究》2021,40(3):885-899

犯罪出行是犯罪地理学的重要研究议题,在犯罪防控、侦破等警务实践中具有突出的技术贡献。受制于研究数据的限制,中国犯罪出行实证研究较为缺乏。论文研究了2010—2016年长春市南关区扒窃犯罪出行的空间模式与影响因素,并指出：① 2010—2016年长春市南关区扒窃犯罪出行平均距离为5.74 km,存在明显的空间衰减效应,空间模式为就近掠夺,在距离犯罪者居住地2 km处出现犯罪缓冲区。② 南关区扒窃犯罪高发区与犯罪群体主要聚居地在空间上呈现重叠,该区域犯罪以就近掠夺的空间模式为主。③ 回归模型验证了犯罪者人口属性中性别、户籍地、是否就业和具有前科劣迹、涉案金额、犯罪地点所属类型对于出行距离的显著影响,其中户籍地变量为理解转型期中国大城市犯罪行为具有一定意义。  相似文献   

RTK测量对传统大地测绘方法的影响及精度分析     

贾桂宝  容金宏  席玉国  景文凯 《测绘与空间地理信息》2017,(4)

随着RTK测量技术的不断发展,其在测量模式、效率及精度等方面都对传统大地测绘方式提出了挑战,而且其特殊的基站与流动站测量模式使某些工程测量手段的实现更加方便有效。本文从RTK定向、替代导线测量、工程放样、地形图测量等几个方面对RTK技术方法的应用进行了概述,通过对比分析实验数据得出了两种测量方式的效率和精度特点。  相似文献