Impact of intra-daily SST variability on ENSO characteristics in a coupled model   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Sébastien Masson  Pascal Terray  Gurvan Madec  Jing-Jia Luo  Toshio Yamagata  Keiko Takahashi 《Climate Dynamics》2012,39(3-4):681-707

This paper explores the impact of intra-daily Sea Surface Temperature (SST) variability on the tropical large-scale climate variability and differentiates it from the response of the system to the forcing of the solar diurnal cycle. Our methodology is based on a set of numerical experiments based on a fully global coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation in which we alter (1) the frequency at which the atmosphere sees the SST variations and (2) the amplitude of the SST diurnal cycle. Our results highlight the complexity of the scale interactions existing between the intra-daily and inter-annual variability of the tropical climate system. Neglecting the SST intra-daily variability results, in our CGCM, to a systematic decrease of 15% of El Ni?o—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude. Furthermore, ENSO frequency and skewness are also significantly modified and are in better agreement with observations when SST intra-daily variability is directly taken into account in the coupling interface of our CGCM. These significant modifications of the SST interannual variability are not associated with any remarkable changes in the mean state or the seasonal variability. They can therefore not be explained by a rectification of the mean state as usually advocated in recent studies focusing on the diurnal cycle and its impact. Furthermore, we demonstrate that SST high frequency coupling is systematically associated with a strengthening of the air-sea feedbacks involved in ENSO physics: SST/sea level pressure (or Bjerknes) feedback, zonal wind/heat content (or Wyrtki) feedback, but also negative surface heat flux feedbacks. In our model, nearly all these results (excepted for SST skewness) are independent of the amplitude of the SST diurnal cycle suggesting that the systematic deterioration of the air-sea coupling by a daily exchange of SST information is cascading toward the major mode of tropical variability, i.e. ENSO.  相似文献   

Advance and prospectus of seasonal prediction: assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model ensemble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980–2004)     

Bin Wang  June-Yi Lee  In-Sik Kang  J. Shukla  C.-K. Park  A. Kumar  J. Schemm  S. Cocke  J.-S. Kug  J.-J. Luo  T. Zhou  B. Wang  X. Fu  W.-T. Yun  O. Alves  E. K. Jin  J. Kinter  B. Kirtman  T. Krishnamurti  N. C. Lau  W. Lau  P. Liu  P. Pegion  T. Rosati  S. Schubert  W. Stern  M. Suarez  T. Yamagata 《Climate Dynamics》2009,33(1):93-117

We assessed current status of multi-model ensemble (MME) deterministic and probabilistic seasonal prediction based on 25-year (1980–2004) retrospective forecasts performed by 14 climate model systems (7 one-tier and 7 two-tier systems) that participate in the Climate Prediction and its Application to Society (CliPAS) project sponsored by the Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC). We also evaluated seven DEMETER models’ MME for the period of 1981–2001 for comparison. Based on the assessment, future direction for improvement of seasonal prediction is discussed. We found that two measures of probabilistic forecast skill, the Brier Skill Score (BSS) and Area under the Relative Operating Characteristic curve (AROC), display similar spatial patterns as those represented by temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) score of deterministic MME forecast. A TCC score of 0.6 corresponds approximately to a BSS of 0.1 and an AROC of 0.7 and beyond these critical threshold values, they are almost linearly correlated. The MME method is demonstrated to be a valuable approach for reducing errors and quantifying forecast uncertainty due to model formulation. The MME prediction skill is substantially better than the averaged skill of all individual models. For instance, the TCC score of CliPAS one-tier MME forecast of Niño 3.4 index at a 6-month lead initiated from 1 May is 0.77, which is significantly higher than the corresponding averaged skill of seven individual coupled models (0.63). The MME made by using 14 coupled models from both DEMETER and CliPAS shows an even higher TCC score of 0.87. Effectiveness of MME depends on the averaged skill of individual models and their mutual independency. For probabilistic forecast the CliPAS MME gains considerable skill from increased forecast reliability as the number of model being used increases; the forecast resolution also increases for 2 m temperature but slightly decreases for precipitation. Equatorial Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies are primary sources of atmospheric climate variability worldwide. The MME 1-month lead hindcast can predict, with high fidelity, the spatial–temporal structures of the first two leading empirical orthogonal modes of the equatorial SST anomalies for both boreal summer (JJA) and winter (DJF), which account for about 80–90% of the total variance. The major bias is a westward shift of SST anomaly between the dateline and 120°E, which may potentially degrade global teleconnection associated with it. The TCC score for SST predictions over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean reaches about 0.68 with a 6-month lead forecast. However, the TCC score for Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index drops below 0.40 at a 3-month lead for both the May and November initial conditions due to the prediction barriers across July, and January, respectively. The MME prediction skills are well correlated with the amplitude of Niño 3.4 SST variation. The forecasts for 2 m air temperature are better in El Niño years than in La Niña years. The precipitation and circulation are predicted better in ENSO-decaying JJA than in ENSO-developing JJA. There is virtually no skill in ENSO-neutral years. Continuing improvement of the one-tier climate model’s slow coupled dynamics in reproducing realistic amplitude, spatial patterns, and temporal evolution of ENSO cycle is a key for long-lead seasonal forecast. Forecast of monsoon precipitation remains a major challenge. The seasonal rainfall predictions over land and during local summer have little skill, especially over tropical Africa. The differences in forecast skills over land areas between the CliPAS and DEMETER MMEs indicate potentials for further improvement of prediction over land. There is an urgent need to assess impacts of land surface initialization on the skill of seasonal and monthly forecast using a multi-model framework.  相似文献   

Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean–atmosphere models     

Emilia K. Jin  James L. Kinter III  B. Wang  C.-K. Park  I.-S. Kang  B. P. Kirtman  J.-S. Kug  A. Kumar  J.-J. Luo  J. Schemm  J. Shukla  T. Yamagata 《Climate Dynamics》2008,31(6):647-664

The overall skill of ENSO prediction in retrospective forecasts made with ten different coupled GCMs is investigated. The coupled GCM datasets of the APCC/CliPAS and DEMETER projects are used for four seasons in the common 22 years from 1980 to 2001. As a baseline, a dynamic-statistical SST forecast and persistence are compared. Our study focuses on the tropical Pacific SST, especially by analyzing the NINO34 index. In coupled models, the accuracy of the simulated variability is related to the accuracy of the simulated mean state. Almost all models have problems in simulating the mean and mean annual cycle of SST, in spite of the positive influence of realistic initial conditions. As a result, the simulation of the interannual SST variability is also far from perfect in most coupled models. With increasing lead time, this discrepancy gets worse. As one measure of forecast skill, the tier-1 multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts of NINO3.4 SST have an anomaly correlation coefficient of 0.86 at the month 6. This is higher than that of any individual model as well as both forecasts based on persistence and those made with the dynamic-statistical model. The forecast skill of individual models and the MME depends strongly on season, ENSO phase, and ENSO intensity. A stronger El Niño is better predicted. The growth phases of both the warm and cold events are better predicted than the corresponding decaying phases. ENSO-neutral periods are far worse predicted than warm or cold events. The skill of forecasts that start in February or May drops faster than that of forecasts that start in August or November. This behavior, often termed the spring predictability barrier, is in part because predictions starting from February or May contain more events in the decaying phase of ENSO.  相似文献   

Investigating the vibration properties of integrated ceiling systems considering interactions with surrounding equipment     

Liangjie Qi  Keiichiro Kunitomo  Masahiro Kurata  Yoshiki Ikeda 《地震工程与结构动力学》2020,49(8):772-793

Studies on recent earthquakes highlighted that buildings with minimal structural damage still suffer from extensive damage and failure of nonstructural components. The dropping and damage of suspended ceiling systems, which typically consist of acceleration-sensitive nonstructural elements, resulted in lengthy functional disruptions and extended recovery time. This article experimentally and analytically examined the vibration properties of an integrated ceiling system considering the interactions with surrounding electrical equipment. The theoretical stiffness and corresponding frequency of electrical equipment were initially derived and then verified by subsequent vibration tests and numerical analyses. The seismic performance of the air conditioner (AC) was evaluated with different installment configurations based on design spectra and floor response spectra. Vibration tests of the suspended integrated ceiling system considering the interactions with surrounding equipment showed that the inclusion of peripheral constraints increased the first horizontal vibration frequency of the ceiling system by a factor of approximately 6. The natural frequencies of all components in the integrated ceiling system were almost identical, which was attributed to the coupled behavior between the ceiling panels and surrounding equipment, emphasizing the effect of interactions between adjacent components during dynamic analysis. Based on the above experimental investigation, an associated numerical model of the integrated ceiling system was created. Finally, corresponding parametric studies that included the interactions with surrounding equipment, reinforcing braces of ACs and strengthening members at the rise-up location between two elevations were performed.  相似文献   

PALEO-EARTHQUAKE STUDY METHODS ON BEDROCK FAULT SURFACE—HISTORY,CURRENT SITUATION,SUGGESTIONS AND PROSPECTS          下载免费PDF全文

ZOU Jun-jie  HE Hong-lin  YOKOYAMA Yosuke  WEI Zhan-yu  SHI Feng  HAO Hai-jian  ZHUANG Qi-tian  SUN Wen  ZHOU Chao  SHIRAHAMA Yoshiki 《地震地质》2019,41(6):1539-1562

  相似文献   

库木库里背斜活动性初步研究          下载免费PDF全文

孙浩越  何宏林  付碧宏  杨顺虎  白濱吉起  池田安隆  狩野谦一  越後智雄 《地震地质》2014,36(1):1-13

库木库里盆地位于青藏高原北缘,与柴达木盆地一山之隔,是二者的过渡地带,也是高原主体部分向NE扩展的前缘地区;现今构造表现为被3条大型活动构造带(走滑的阿尔金断裂带、东昆仑断裂带和逆冲的祁漫塔格褶皱逆冲系)所夹持。因此,该盆地对于研究青藏高原北缘的构造活动性、活动历史,探讨高原的扩展模式具有十分重要的意义。虽然库木库里盆地南、北两侧均发育活动性很强的大型走滑断裂,但是在盆地中央发育1条大型背斜,走向NWW-SEE,与祁漫塔格褶皱逆冲系和柴达木盆地内的褶皱构造走向一致,说明盆地目前遭受NNE向的挤压。通过对盆地地形横、纵剖面和阶地展布形态的分析,得出背斜有自西向东扩展变形的特征;野外调查和测年结果显示,背斜东段冰川融水形成了大型冰水扇,形成年龄为(87.09±2.31)~(102.4±3.7)ka,进而获得背斜东段自晚更新世以来平均隆升速率的最大值为(2.78±0.28)~(3.28±0.28)mm/a。库木库里盆地整体的活动性很强,在构造上与其北边的柴达木盆地类似,都受控于阿尔金断裂南侧的NNE向的区域挤压作用。  相似文献   

Sedimentary records of natural and artificial Huanghe (Yellow River) channel shifts during the Holocene in the southern Bohai Sea   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Shuqing QiaoXuefa Shi  Yoshiki SaitoXiaoyan Li  Yonggui YuYazhi Bai  Yanguang LiuKunshan Wang  Gang Yang 《Continental Shelf Research》2011,31(13):1336-1342

Two gravity cores collected off the modern Huanghe (Yellow River) delta in the southern Bohai Sea were analyzed for grain size, the total organic carbon (TOC)/total nitrogen (TN) ratio, color diffraction, magnetic susceptibility, ¹⁴C dating and ¹³⁷Cs and ²¹⁰Pb isotope contents to clarify changes in the sedimentary environment during the Holocene. In particular, the effect of natural and artificial river-course shifts of the Huanghe on the Bohai Sea sediment was investigated. A peat layer, scouring surface and sharp changes in the grain size, TOC/TN ratio, sediment color (L^?, a^?) and magnetic susceptibility were identified and are likely to be due to the early-Holocene sea-level rise resulting in environmental changes from coastal to shelf environments in the Bohai Sea. After the sea level reached its maximum at 6-7 ka BP, the lateral shifts in the river course of the Huanghe formed 10 superlobes, and superlobe 7 (11-1048 AD) and superlobe 10 (1855-present) of the Huanghe delta affected the core sites. The northern site of BH-239 has been more affected by the Huanghe since the middle Holocene. Notably, in the superlobe 10 period, the reshaping of the northern Huanghe delta due to an artificial river-course shift from northward to eastward in 1976 (e.g., a∼10 km shoreline retreat due to coastal erosion) was recorded in the core sediments, particularly in terms of the TOC/TN ratio, sediment color (L^? and a^?) and magnetic susceptibility, owing to the huge sediment supply from coastal erosion of the former river mouth area.  相似文献   

Stratigraphy of multiple piston-core sediments for the last 30,000 years from Lake Biwa, Japan     

Keiji Takemura  Akira Hayashida  Makoto Okamura  Hiromi Matsuoka  Mohammed Ali  Mohammed Ali  Yoshiki Kuniko  Masayuki Torii  Masayuki Torii 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2000,23(2):185-199

  相似文献   

Magnetic polarity stratigraphy of Siwalik Group sediments of Karnali River section in western Nepal     

Pitambar Gautam  Yoshiki Fujiwara 《Geophysical Journal International》2000,142(3):812-824

  相似文献   

Geochemical and Grain-Sized Implications for Provenance Variations of the Central Yellow Sea Muddy Area Since the Middle Holocene     

Lina Ai  Zongzhu Han  Xiao Wu  Yoshiki Saito  Houjie Wang 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2020,19(3):577-588

Based on high-resolution analysis to a 280-cm long sediment core obtained from the muddy area in the central Yellow Sea, we examined the provenance of muddy sediments and discussed the changing marine sedimentary environment since the middle Holocene. The results indicated that fine-grained sediments in the muddy area were mainly derived from the Huanghe(Yellow River) and Changjiang(Yangtze River) with considerable stepwise variations during the past 6.6 kyr. The Yellow Sea Warm Current was initiated at 6 kyr when the sea level was high together with the enhanced East Asian Winter Monsoon. These in combination established the framework of shelf circulation in the Yellow Sea that began to trap the river-derived fine-grained sediments. From 4.9 kyr to 2.8 kyr, both the Kushiro Current and East Asian Monsoon were significantly weakened, reducing the delivery of Changjiang sediments to the muddy area. As a result, the sediments were mainly originated from the Huanghe. From 2.8 kyr to 1.5 kyr the continuously weakened East Asian Winter Monsoon and enhanced Yellow Sea Warm Current entrapped more fine-grain sediments. Whereas the enhanced East Asian Winter Monsoon and the human caused increase in sediment load of the Huanghe since 1.5 kyr, and direct delivery of Huanghe sediments to the Yellow Sea during 1128–1855 AD might dominated the sedimentation in the study area. The stepwise variations of the sediment provenance and composition of the Central Yellow Sea muddy sediments are of importance to understanding the formation of muddy deposit in the central Yellow Sea and the associated variations of marine environment since the middle Holocene.  相似文献