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121.
Many marine fishes use spatially distinct habitats as juveniles and adults. Determining which juvenile habitats are most important to sustaining adult populations (i.e., which habitats are nurseries) has proven difficult, in part due to challenges in estimating survival of juveniles in putative nursery habitats. Recent technological advances have made largescale tagging efforts a viable approach to estimating survival of juvenile fishes by increasing recapture rates and enabling the use of individual-identification tags. These techniques, using Passive Integrated transponder (PIT) tags and autonomous antenna detection systems (antenna), have been successfully applied in freshwater environments. This paper reports the adaptation of these techniques to estuarine mangrove creeks (salinity: 2–28‰) for research of the juvenile life stage on an estuarine-dependent marine fish,Centropomus undecimalis. Retention rate of PIT tags in juveniles >120 mm standard length was 100%, with no mortality. The antenna detection field covered 48% of the creek water column, and the antenna was experimentally determined to detect approximately 67% of tagged fish that swam through. Overall recapture rate of tagged fish by the antenna was >40%. This recapture rate is higher than the sparse data typical of traditional tag-recapture studies. A time-dependent Jolly-Seber model was fit to the data, providing estimates of capture probability (0.8) and weekly apparent survival (0.41) that will be invaluable in comparing juvenile habitats of different quality (e.g., natural versus anthropogenically degraded). This research demonstrates the viability of this approach to fish research in estuarine habitats.  相似文献   
122.
A fast, automated, gas chromatographic system for the airborne measurement of PAN and a series of its homologues is described and its performance is evaluated. Response factors for PAN, PPN, APAN, PiBN, and MPAN have been determined and are discussed with regard to ECD response and to potential losses in the analytical system. Calibration methods used for these tasks are described and compared. The results from this work should help investigators who are employing the widely used GC/ECD method for the measurement of peroxyacyl nitrates to evaluate peaks of PAN homologues that cannot be calibrated for by using the reported response factors.  相似文献   
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Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) describe alternative outcomes for socioeconomic development. Papers describing the conceptual framework for SSPs refer to challenges to mitigation and to adaptation as fundamental concepts. Identifying which socioeconomic factors are the most important determinants of these challenges, and how to combine them in an internally consistent manner, is critical to scenario design. Here we demonstrate a systematic and traceable approach for identifying and prioritizing scenario elements. In this study, we identify 13 determinants of mitigation and adaptation challenges at a globally aggregated scale based on a survey of 25 experts. In addition, we use 19 expert elicitations and a cross-impact balance analysis to create approximately 1.5 million combinations of trends for these determinants and rank them in terms of internal consistency. Using the 1,000 most consistent combinations, we construct composite metrics for challenges to mitigation and adaptation to uncover distinguishable characteristics for five types of SSPs: those with Low, Medium, and High challenges to both mitigation and adaptation (consistent with SSPs 1–3), and those in which adaptation challenges or mitigation challenges dominate (consistent with SSPs 4–5). We find a distinguishing characteristic for mixed typology SSP4 (low mitigation challenges, high adaptation challenges): High trends for innovation capacity could lower challenges to mitigation but not necessarily challenges to adaptation. We also find that a low trend for quality of governance consistently corresponds to higher challenges to adaptation. These findings are suggestive for future research on the SSPs in particular, while our analytical approach is instructive for scenario development in general.  相似文献   
128.
The scientific community is developing new global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes that could pose risks to human and natural systems; how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; and the relationship of future climate change adaptation and mitigation policy responses with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to and process of developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, as described in the three subsequent papers in this Special Issue (Van Vuuren et al., 2013; O’Neill et al., 2013; Kriegler et al., Submitted for publication in this special issue). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop, apply, and revise this framework in an iterative and open-ended process. A key goal of the framework design and its future development is to facilitate the collaboration of climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to develop policy- and decision-relevant scenarios and explore the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with additional climate change.  相似文献   
129.
Grass seed farmers have burned their fields in Idaho and Washington State for decades. Field burning, however, creates small particulate matter air pollution, thus engendering a growing public backlash by the 1990s that manifested itself in new clean air advocacy groups. The new groups’ push for policy change eventually met with significant success in both cases. How did each set of advocates approach the challenge of policy change? More specifically, what kinds of policy venues did each group choose and why? This research uses the cases to explore and explain each clean air group's choices vis-à-vis hypotheses of venue choice. Three hypotheses are tested—Schattschneider's (1960 Schattschneider , E. E. 1960 . The semisovereign people . New York , NY : Holt, Rinehart, and Winston . [Google Scholar]) “expanded scope of conflict” thesis, ACF's (Sabatier and Jenkins-Smith 1999 Sabatier , P. , and H. Jenkins-Smith . 1999 . The advocacy coalition framework: An assessment . In Theories of the policy process , ed. P. A. Sabatier , 117166 . Boulder , CO : Westview Press . [Google Scholar]) contention that groups strategically apply their resources in order to increase the likelihood of achieving their primary goal(s), and Pralle's (2003 Pralle , S. B. 2003 . Venue shopping, political strategy, and policy change . J. Public Policy 23 : 233260 .[Crossref] [Google Scholar], 2010 Pralle , S. B. 2010 . Shopping around: Environmental organizations and the search for policy venues . In Advocacy organizations and collective action , ed. A. Prakash and M. K. Gugerty , 177203 . Cambridge , MA : Cambridge University Press .[Crossref] [Google Scholar]) thesis that internal group constraints deter groups from moving into new venues.  相似文献   
130.
Genovesa Crater Lake is a remote, hypersaline lake in the northern Galápagos archipelago that contains a finely laminated sediment record. This sediment record has the potential to provide a high-resolution history of past climate variability in the eastern tropical Pacific. Here we present modern climate, lake, and sediment observations from 2009 to 2012 to explore how local climate variability influences Genovesa Crater Lake and its sediments. Surface lake temperature is strongly linked to air temperature and is highly seasonal. Temperature stratification is strongest during the warm season, whereas temperature becomes more uniform through the water column in the cool season. Deeper and earlier mixing occurred during the 2010 La Niña, which subsequently delayed 2011 cool season mixing and maximum warm season surface temperatures in 2011 and 2012. Lake salinity changes are influenced by precipitation, evaporation and persistent seawater influx. The largest declines in subsurface salinity follow months after the rainy season, when temperatures cool and fresher surface water from the previous warm/wet season mixes into the subsurface. Between 2009 and 2012, more calcium carbonate precipitated during a period of higher salinity. The period of highest calcium carbonate abundance measured in sediment records that span the late nineteenth to twentieth century coincides with the failure of two consecutive rainy seasons in 1988 and 1989 as well as the coldest monthly sea surface temperature measured at Puerto Ayora in 1989. More calcium carbonate-rich laminae from AD 1550 ± 70 to 1675 ± 90 may indicate a greater frequency of prolonged droughts or cooler temperatures, although enhanced productivity may also modulate carbonate precipitation. More Ca-rich laminae in Genovesa coincide with dry conditions inferred from other Galápagos sediment proxies, as well as prolonged dry and cool conditions inferred from reconstructions of the Southern Oscillation Index and NINO3 sea surface temperatures.  相似文献   
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