Adsorption of Benzoic Acid and Related Carboxylic Acids onto FeOOH(Goethite): The Low Ionic Strength Regime     

Charles F. Whitehead  Richard F. Carbonaro  Alan T. Stone 《Aquatic Geochemistry》2015,21(2-4):99-121

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The challenge to detect and attribute effects of climate change on human and natural systems     

Dáithí Stone  Maximilian Auffhammer  Mark Carey  Gerrit Hansen  Christian Huggel  Wolfgang Cramer  David Lobell  Ulf Molau  Andrew Solow  Lourdes Tibig  Gary Yohe 《Climatic change》2013,118(2):381-395

Future scenarios of the energy system under greenhouse gas emission constraints depict dramatic growth in a range of energy technologies. Technological growth dynamics observed historically provide a useful comparator for these future trajectories. We find that historical time series data reveal a consistent relationship between how much a technology’s cumulative installed capacity grows, and how long this growth takes. This relationship between extent (how much) and duration (for how long) is consistent across both energy supply and end-use technologies, and both established and emerging technologies. We then develop and test an approach for using this historical relationship to assess technological trajectories in future scenarios. Our approach for “learning from the past” contributes to the assessment and verification of integrated assessment and energy-economic models used to generate quantitative scenarios. Using data on power generation technologies from two such models, we also find a consistent extent - duration relationship across both technologies and scenarios. This relationship describes future low carbon technological growth in the power sector which appears to be conservative relative to what has been evidenced historically. Specifically, future extents of capacity growth are comparatively low given the lengthy time duration of that growth. We treat this finding with caution due to the low number of data points. Yet it remains counter-intuitive given the extremely rapid growth rates of certain low carbon technologies under stringent emission constraints. We explore possible reasons for the apparent scenario conservatism, and find parametric or structural conservatism in the underlying models to be one possible explanation.  相似文献   

Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?     

Xavier Rodó  Mercedes Pascual  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes  Alexander Gershunov  Dáithí A. Stone  Filippo Giorgi  Peter J. Hudson  James Kinter  Miquel-Àngel Rodríguez-Arias  Nils Ch. Stenseth  David Alonso  Javier García-Serrano  Andrew P. Dobson 《Climatic change》2013,118(3-4):625-640

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.  相似文献   

Dimensions and deglacial chronology of the Outer Hebrides Ice Cap,northwest Scotland: implications of cosmic ray exposure dating     

John O. Stone  Colin K. Ballantyne 《第四纪科学杂志》2006,21(1):75-84

Cosmic ray exposure ages of frost-weathered bedrock from mountain summits in the Outer Hebrides exceed the age of Late Devensian glaciation. Exposure ages of most glacially-abraded bedrock surfaces at low and intermediate elevations are younger than the age of maximum Late Devensian glaciation. These results confirm that previously mapped periglacial trimlines in the Outer Hebrides define the upper limit of bedrock erosion by Late Devensian ice. They are consistent with the interpretation, based on geomorphological evidence, that the trimlines mark the approximate upper limit of a Late Devensian Outer Hebrides Ice Cap. A postglacial exposure age from the summit of Oreval (662 m) suggests that this mountain was overrun during the last glaciation, indicating thicker ice cover and a lower surface gradient west of the ice-cap divide than previously inferred. Although bedrock surfaces below the trimlines are strongly ice-moulded, some show evidence of prior cosmic ray exposure, which we attribute to limited erosion during Late Devensian glaciation. If this interpretation is correct, the youngest apparent ages from these surfaces give the most reliable dates for deglaciation, at ca. 14.5–14 ka. This implies that ice persisted at favourable sites through the warm opening phase of the Windermere Interstade. Comparison with radiocarbon-dated evidence from offshore cores suggests net ice margin retreat of ∼74 km eastwards across the adjacent shelf in > 2.3 ± 1.0 ka. The dating evidence is consistent with relatively rapid retreat of calving margins to the coast, then slower withdrawal of ice margins to high ground. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Active solar radio regions at metric frequencies and the interplanetary sector structures     

Kunitomo Sakurai  Robert G. Stone 《Solar physics》1971,19(1):247-256

The possible relation between type I noise active regions and the polarity distribution of the interplanetary magnetic field is examined for the period from 13 March to 21 August, 1968 (Solar Rotation Numbers 1842–1847) by using data from ground-based and satellite observations. In general four type I radio regions appeared during each solar rotation period except for Rotation No. 1842. The number of type I regions is the same as the number of sector boundaries. This result suggests that the configuration of the photospheric magnetic field extending into the interplanetary space may be related to the origin of the type I radio regions. Statistically the passage of the sector boundaries is delayed by approximately 5 days after the central meridian passage of the type I noise regions on the solar disk.The position of the source of the sector boundaries and its relation to the type I radio regions are investigated by taking into account the mean bulk velocity of solar winds as observed by space probes. A model of the large-scale structure of type I radio regions and their relation to the sector structure of the magnetic field as observed in the interplanetary space is briefly discussed.NASA Research Associate at the University of Maryland.  相似文献   

Relative roles of climate sensitivity and forcing in defining the ocean circulation response to climate change     

Jeffery R. Scott  Andrei P. Sokolov  Peter H. Stone  Mort D. Webster 《Climate Dynamics》2008,30(5):441-454

The response of the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to increased greenhouse gas forcing is examined using a coupled model of intermediate complexity, including a dynamic 3-D ocean subcomponent. Parameters are the increase in CO₂ forcing (with stabilization after a specified time interval) and the model’s climate sensitivity. In this model, the cessation of deep sinking in the north “Atlantic” (hereinafter, a “collapse”), as indicated by changes in the MOC, behaves like a simple bifurcation. The final surface air temperature (SAT) change, which is closely predicted by the product of the radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, determines whether a collapse occurs. The initial transient response in SAT is largely a function of the forcing increase, with higher sensitivity runs exhibiting delayed behavior; accordingly, high CO₂-low sensitivity scenarios can be assessed as a recovering or collapsing circulation shortly after stabilization, whereas low CO₂-high sensitivity scenarios require several hundred additional years to make such a determination. We also systemically examine how the rate of forcing, for a given CO₂ stabilization, affects the ocean response. In contrast with previous studies based on results using simpler ocean models, we find that except for a narrow range of marginally stable to marginally unstable scenarios, the forcing rate has little impact on whether the run collapses or recovers. In this narrow range, however, forcing increases on a time scale of slow ocean advective processes results in weaker declines in overturning strength and can permit a run to recover that would otherwise collapse.  相似文献   

A simple unsplit Godunov method for multidimensional MHD     

James M. Stone  Thomas Gardiner 《New Astronomy》2009,14(2):139-148

We describe a numerical algorithm based on Godunov methods for integrating the equations of compressible magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) in multidimensions. It combines a simple, dimensionally-unsplit integration method with the constrained transport (CT) discretization of the induction equation to enforce the divergence-free constraint. We present the results of a series of fully three-dimensional tests which indicate the method is second-order accurate for smooth solutions in all MHD wave families, and captures shocks, contact and rotational discontinuities well. However, it is also more diffusive than other more complex unsplit integrators combined with CT. Thus, the primary advantage of the method is its simplicity. It does not require a characteristic tracing step to construct interface values for the Riemann solver, it is straightforward to extend with additional physics, and it is suitable for use with nested and adaptive meshes. The method is implemented as one of two dimensionally unsplit MHD integrators in the Athena code, which is freely available for download from the web.  相似文献   

Glaciation and deglaciation of the SW Lake District,England: implications of cosmogenic 36Cl exposure dating     

Colin K. Ballantyne  John O. Stone  L. Keith Fifield 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》2009,120(2-3):139-144

Exposure dating using cosmogenic ³⁶Cl demonstrates that the summit plateau of Scafell Pike (978 m) in the SW Lake District escaped erosion by glacier ice during the last glacial maximum (LGM; c. 26–21 kyr) and probably throughout the Devensian Glacial Stage (MIS 5d-2). Exposure ages obtained for ice-moulded bedrock on an adjacent col at 750–765 m confirm over-riding and erosion of bedrock by warm-based glacier ice during the LGM. The contrast between the two sites is interpreted in terms of preservation of tors, frost-shattered outcrops and blockfields on terrain above 840–870 m under cold-based ice. An exposure age of 17.3 ± 1.1 kyr for the col at 750–765 m suggests that substantial downwastage of the last ice sheet had occurred by c. 17 kyr, consistent with deglacial exposure ages obtained for other high-level sites in the British Isles. An exposure age of 12.5 ± 0.8 kyr obtained for a glacially transported rockfall boulder within the limits of later corrie glaciation confirms that the final episode of local glaciation in the Lake District occurred during the Loch Lomond Stade (c. 12.9–11.7 kyr). This research also demonstrated the difficulties of obtaining reliable exposure ages from rhyolite and andesite bedrock that has proved resistant to glacial abrasion.  相似文献   

Large Proton Anisotropies in the 18 August 2010 Solar Particle Event     

R. A. Leske  C. M. S. Cohen  R. A. Mewaldt  E. R. Christian  A. C. Cummings  A. W. Labrador  E. C. Stone  M. E. Wiedenbeck  T. T. von Rosenvinge 《Solar physics》2012,281(1):301-318

The solar particle event observed at STEREO Ahead on 18?August 2010 displayed a rich variety of behavior in the particle anisotropies. Sectored rates measured by the Low Energy Telescope (LET) on STEREO showed very large bidirectional anisotropies in 4??C?6?MeV protons for the first ???17?hours of the event while inside a magnetic cloud, with intensities along the field direction several hundred to nearly 1000 times greater than those perpendicular to the field. At the trailing end of the cloud, the protons became isotropic and their spectrum hardened slightly, while the He/H abundance ratio plunged by a factor of approximately four for about four hours. Associated with the arrival of a shock on 20?August was a series of brief (<?10?minute duration) intensity increases (commonly called ??shock spikes??) with relatively narrow angular distributions (???45^° FWHM), followed by an abrupt decrease in particle intensities at the shock itself and a reversal of the proton flow to a direction toward the Sun and away from the receding shock. We discuss the STEREO/LET observations of this interesting event in the context of other observations reported in the literature.  相似文献   

Dreading CRISPR: GMOs,Honest Brokers,And Mertonian Transgressions          下载免费PDF全文

Glenn Davis Stone 《Geographical review》2017,107(4):584-591

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