Statistical analysis of earthquake activity at Etna volcano (March 1981 eruption)     

Giuseppe De Natale  Stefano Gresta  Giuseppe Patané  Aldo Zollo 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1985,123(5):697-705

Seismic activity that preceded, accompanied, and followed the 17–23 March 1981 Etnean eruption has been statistically analyzed.On the grounds of both time evolution of seismicity and catalogue completeness, three time intervals have been defined (12 February–2 March, 12–17 March, 19–31 March) and for each of these periods both the b coefficient of theGutenberg-Richter's (1956) relationship and the E parameter of the cluster size (Shlien andToksoz, 1970) have been calculated.No significant variations were observed between the first and third periods, while lower values of bothb andE coefficients were found in the second one. These findings might indicate that changes in the seismicity features occur just before the eruption start.Small but fast variations in the stress field acting on the volcano might originate this type of seismic activity, while the importance of the tectonic control on volcanic phenomena seems to be confirmed.  相似文献   

Diatom response to mid-Holocene climate change in Lago di Massaciuccoli (Tuscany,Italy)   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Aldo Marchetto  Daniele Colombaroli  Willy Tinner 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2008,40(1):235-245

A sedimentary sequence from the Mediterranean coastal basin of Lago di Massaciuccoli (Tuscany, Italy) was analyzed for diatoms, covering two periods over the past ca. 7,000 years. The site was selected because it is situated in a sensitive position at the limit between Mediterranean and Central European climates and biomes. Our focus is on the impact of accelerated human activity during the recent past (water uptake in the catchment, sand extraction, wastewater discharge) and on a phase of evident change between 6,600 and 5,400 cal. BP. The diatom record suggests fresh-water conditions and rather high lake levels until ca. 6,000 years ago. The subsequent shift towards brackish conditions peaked at around 5,500 cal. BP. We relate this shift to a pervasive change towards a drier climate that has been observed elsewhere in the Mediterranean and Northern African regions, and stands in contrast to the shift towards a cooler and more humid climate in the nearby Alps (200–350 km distant) and in central Europe. Pollen and charcoal records from a previous study on the same sedimentary sequence were used to gain additional insights about the causes of the changes in the diatom assemblages and apply numerical methods to search for common trends and correlations.  相似文献   

Seismic images and rock properties of the very shallow structure of Campi Flegrei caldera (southern Italy)     

Dario Dello Iacono  Aldo Zollo  Maurizio Vassallo  Tiziana Vanorio  Sebastien Judenherc 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2009,71(3):275-284

In September 2001, an extensive active-seismic investigation (Serapis experiment) was carried out in the Gulfs of Naples and Pozzuoli, with the aim of investigating and reconstructing the shallow crustal structure of the Campi Flegrei caldera, and possibly identifying its feeding system at depth. The present study provides a joint analysis of the very shallow seismic reflection data and tomographic images based on the Serapis dataset. This is achieved by reflection seismic sections obtained by the 3D data gathering and through refined P-velocity images of the shallowest layer of Pozzuoli Gulf (z < 1,000 m). From the refined Vp model, the overall picture of the velocity distribution confirms the presence of a complex arc-shaped anomaly that borders the bay offshore. The deeper part of the anomaly (beneath 700 m, with Vp > 3,500 m/s) correlates with units made up of agglomerate tuffs and interbedded lava, which form the southern edge of the caldera, which was probably formed following the two large ignimbritic eruptions that marked the evolutionary history of the area under study. The upper part of the anomaly that tends to split into two parallel arcs is correlated with dikes, volcanic mounds and hydrothermal alteration zones noted in previous shallow reflection seismic analyses. The depth of the transition between the upper and lower parts of the anomaly is characterized by an abrupt Vp increase on the one-dimensional (1D) profiles extracted from the 3D tomographic model and by the presence of a strong reflector located at about 0.6/0.7 s Two Way Time (TWT) on Common Mid Point gathers. The move-out velocity analysis and stack of the P–P and P–S reflections at the layer bottom allowed to estimate relatively high Vp/Vs values (3.7 ± 0.9). This hypothesis has been tested by a theoretical rock physical modeling of the Vp/Vs ratio as a function of porosity suggesting that the shallow layer is likely formed by incoherent, water saturated, volcanic and marine sediments that filled Pozzuoli Bay during the post-caldera activity.  相似文献   

Simulated shaking maps for the 1980 Irpinia earthquake, Ms 6.9: Insights on the observed damage distribution     

Maria Lancieri  Aldo Zollo 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2009

The region stricken by the Irpinia earthquake (Ms=6.9) on 1980, along the Southern Appenninc chain, is one of the highest seismic hazard areas of Italian peninsula.  相似文献   

Prediction of response spectra via real-time earthquake measurements     

Vincenzo Convertito  Iunio Iervolino  Aldo Zollo  Gaetano Manfredi 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2008,28(6):492-505

The development and implementation of an earthquake early warning system (EEWS), both in regional or on-site configurations can help to mitigate the losses due to the occurrence of moderate-to-large earthquakes in densely populated and/or industrialized areas. The capability of an EEWS to provide real-time estimates of source parameters (location and magnitude) can be used to take some countermeasures during the earthquake occurrence and before the arriving of the most destructive waves at the site of interest. However, some critical issues are peculiar of EEWS and need further investigation: (1) the uncertainties on earthquake magnitude and location estimates based on the measurements of some observed quantities in the very early portion of the recorded signals; (2) the selection of the most appropriate parameter to be used to predict the ground motion amplitude both in near- and far-source ranges; (3) the use of the estimates provided by the EEWS for structural engineering and risk mitigation applications.In the present study, the issues above are discussed using the Campania–Lucania region (Southern Apennines) in Italy, as test-site area. In this region a prototype system for earthquake early warning, and more generally for seismic alert management, is under development. The system is based on a dense, wide dynamic accelerometric network deployed in the area where the moderate-to-large earthquake causative fault systems are located.The uncertainty analysis is performed through a real-time probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by using two different approaches. The first is the Bayesian approach that implicitly integrate both the time evolving estimate of earthquake parameters, the probability density functions and the variability of ground motion propagation providing the most complete information. The second is a classical point estimate approach which does not account for the probability density function of the magnitude and only uses the average of the estimates performed at each seismic station.Both the approaches are applied to two main towns located in the area of interest, Napoli and Avellino, for which a missed and false alarm analysis is presented by means of a scenario earthquake: an M 7.0 seismic event located at the centre of the seismic network.Concerning the ground motion prediction, attention is focused on the response spectra as the most appropriate function to characterize the ground motion for earthquake engineering applications of EEWS.  相似文献   

3D adaptive tomography using Delaunay triangles and Voronoi polygons     

Gualtiero Böhm  Paolo Galuppo  Aldo Vesnaver 《Geophysical Prospecting》2000,48(4):723-744

The solutions of traveltime inversion problems are often not unique because of the poor match between the raypath distribution and the tomographic grid. However, by adapting the local resolution iteratively, by means of a singular value analysis of the tomographic matrix, we can reduce or eliminate the null space influence on our earth image: in this way, we get a much more reliable estimate of the velocity field of seismic waves. We describe an algorithm for an automatic regridding, able to fit the local resolution to the available raypaths, which is based on Delaunay triangulation and Voronoi tessellation. It increases the local pixel density where the null space energy is low or the velocity gradient is large, and reduces it elsewhere. Consequently, the tomographic image can reveal the boundaries of complex objects, but is not affected by the ambiguities that occur when the grid resolution is not adequately supported by the available raypaths.  相似文献   

The influence of the 3D morphology and cavity network on the seismic response of Castelnuovo hill to the 2009 Abruzzo earthquake     

Lorenza Evangelista  Luigi Landolfi  Anna d’Onofrio  Francesco Silvestri 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2016,14(12):3363-3387

During the Abruzzo earthquake (6.IV.2009, M_W = 6.3), the village of Castelnuovo, lying on an elliptical hill about 60 m high, underwent an intensive damage (I_MCS = 9–10), that could be partly ascribed to the topographic amplification and to the presence of an underground cavity network. To verify these hypotheses, the seismic response of the hill was carefully investigated adopting both 2D and 3D finite difference numerical models. Analyses were carried out using a detailed geotechnical model, defined on the basis of a comprehensive field investigation (boreholes, DH, HVSR, ERT) and accurate laboratory tests (RC-TS). The reference input motion was reproduced considering the time history of the mainshock recorded at an accelerometric station close to the epicenter, conveniently deconvoluted to the bedrock and scaled in amplitude to the site of Castelnuovo. The results of the numerical analyses, expressed in terms of distribution of the amplification factor of peak acceleration and Housner intensity, proved that the topographic effects significantly influenced the ground motion at surface, whereas the role of cavities seemed to be negligible.  相似文献   

Earthquake early warning feasibility in the Campania region (southern Italy) and demonstration system for public school buildings     

Antonio Emolo  Matteo Picozzi  Gaetano Festa  Claudio Martino  Simona Colombelli  Alessandro Caruso  Luca Elia  Aldo Zollo  Piero Brondi  Nicola Miranda 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2016,14(9):2513-2529

We present the results of a feasibility study of an earthquake early warning system (EEWS) for the Campania region (southern Italy) using schools as specific targets. The study considered the seismogenic zones as sources of potential earthquakes for the area, the Italian accelerometric network as the recording network for seismic event occurrence, and the performances of the software platform PRESTo ^Plus for data analysis and processing. We analyze the distribution of lead-times for all possible threatening seismic sources for each municipality in the region under study by extracting the lead-time value corresponding to the 5th, 10th and 25th percentiles of the distributions. We discuss the results for the 5th percentile in order to analyze the worst-case scenario: in the case of a single site, the lead-time is expected to be larger than this value in the 95 % of the cases. Since the population distribution in Campania is uneven and most of the people live nearby the coast, whilst the most destructive earthquakes occur along the Apennine chain, we can conclude that an efficient EEWS can allow most of the schools in the area to undertake some mitigating actions. The testing of the EEWS was carried out in the high school ITIS ‘E. Majorana’, located at Somma Vesuviana, about 80 km from the seismogenic Irpinia region. For this purpose, the Sentinel, an actuator made up of low-cost hardware (i.e., Arduino^®), was developed in close cooperation with students and teachers of the school to receive alert messages from the PRESTo ^Plus platform and warn the school users in case of a seismic event. The EEWS and the Sentinel were successfully tested during some blind drills performed during normal school activities.  相似文献   

Cosmogenic 7Be in air: A complex mixture of production and transport     

A.-P. Leppänen  A.A. Pacini  I.G. Usoskin  A. Aldahan  E. Echer  H. Evangelista  S. Klemola  G.A. Kovaltsov  K. Mursula  G. Possnert 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2010,72(13):1036-1043

The long-time series of ⁷Be activity in surface air have been studied with the wavelet analysis technique in order to find coherence between ⁷Be activity, theoretical production in the troposphere and climatic indices. The ⁷Be activity were obtained from five different locations, Angra in the tropics in Brazil, Skåne in mid-latitudes in Southern Sweden, Kiruna in Polar region in Northern Sweden, Loviisa in Southern Finland and Rovaniemi in polar region in Northern Finland. The ⁷Be data from the Northern hemisphere sites where tested for coherence with theoretical production of the isotope in troposphere and with the North Atlantic Oscillation index. In the Southern hemisphere separate theoretical production was calculated in order to describe local production and Southern Annular Mode was used as the climatic index. Consistent and significant coherence were found with theoretical production at Skåne, Kiruna and Loviisa at time-scales of four years or longer. At Angra and Rovaniemi sites, no coherence was detected between ⁷Be theoretical tropospheric production and measured activity at ground level. The coherence between ⁷Be data from Skåne and Angra and climatic indices is insignificant while data from Northern and Eastern Scandinavia show clear coherence with climatic indices at time-scales of four years or longer. Additionally, significant coherence was found between the cosmic ray induced production and NAO at the time band of 8–12 years whereas the coherence between cosmic ray induced production and SAM was insignificant. This feature implies that the ground level ⁷Be activity contain mixed information on both production and transport. This conclusion means that further evaluation through models which enable accurate realistic models that will be investigated in future studies.  相似文献   

Evaluation of pseudostatic active earth pressure coefficient of cantilever retaining walls     

Aldo Evangelista  Anna Scotto di Santolo  Armando Lucio Simonelli 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2010

A stress plasticity solution is proposed for evaluating the gravitational and dynamic active earth pressures on cantilever retaining walls with long heel. The solution takes into account the friction angle of the soil, wall roughness, backfill inclination and horizontal and vertical seismic accelerations. It is validated by means of the comparison with both traditional limit equilibrium methods (e.g. Mononobe–Okabe equations) and static and pseudostatic numerical FLAC analyses. For numerical analyses the soil is modelled as an elasto-plastic non-dilatant medium obeying the Mohr–Coulomb yield criterion, while the wall is elastic. The solutions for the horizontal and vertical seismic coefficients are proposed, which allow one to determine the intensity of the active thrust and its inclination δ with respect to the horizontal. It is demonstrated that the latter also depends on the soil friction angle φ. The inclination in seismic conditions δ_E is greater than the one in static conditions, δ_S, usually adopted in both cases. As a matter of fact, since wall stability conditions improve with the increase of inclination δ, the present method gives solutions that are less onerous than traditional ones, producing less conservative wall designs. Finally pseudostatic results are compared with proper dynamic analyses (by FLAC code) performed utilising four Italian accelerometric time-histories as input ground motion.  相似文献