Non-integrability of the problem of motion around an oblate planet     

Alessandra Celletti  Piero Negrini 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1995,61(3):253-260

We provide a result of non-analytic integrability of the so-called J ₂-problem. Precisely by using the Lerman theorem we are able to prove the existence of a region of the phase space, where the dynamical system exhibits chaotic motions.  相似文献   

A global perspective on African climate   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

Alessandra Giannini  Michela Biasutti  Isaac M. Held  Adam H. Sobel 《Climatic change》2008,90(4):359-383

We describe the global climate system context in which to interpret African environmental change to support planning and implementation of policymaking action at national, regional and continental scales, and to inform the debate between proponents of mitigation v. adaptation strategies in the face of climate change. We review recent advances and current challenges in African climate research and exploit our physical understanding of variability and trends to shape our outlook on future climate change. We classify the various mechanisms that have been proposed as relevant for understanding variations in African rainfall, emphasizing a “tropospheric stabilization” mechanism that is of importance on interannual time scales as well as for the future response to warming oceans. Two patterns stand out in our analysis of twentieth century rainfall variability: a drying of the monsoon regions, related to warming of the tropical oceans, and variability related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The latest generation of climate models partly captures this recent continent-wide drying trend, attributing it to the combination of anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and greenhouse gases, the relative contribution of which is difficult to quantify with the existing model archive. The same climate models fail to reach a robust agreement regarding the twenty-first century outlook for African rainfall, in a future with increasing greenhouse gases and decreasing aerosol loadings. Such uncertainty underscores current limitations in our understanding of the global climate system that it is necessary to overcome if science is to support Africa in meeting its development goals.  相似文献   

Adiabatic chaos in the spin–orbit problem     

Giancarlo Benettin  Massimiliano Guzzo  Valerio Marini 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2008,101(1-2):203-224

We provide evidences that the angular momentum of a symmetric rigid body in a spin–orbit resonance can perform large scale chaotic motions on time scales which increase polynomially with the inverse of the oblateness of the body. This kind of irregular precession appears as soon as the orbit of the center of mass is non-circular and the angular momentum of the body is far from the principal directions with minimum (maximum) moment of inertia. We also provide a quantitative explanation of these facts by using the theory of adiabatic invariants, and we provide numerical applications to the cases of the 1:1 and 1:2 spin–orbit resonances.  相似文献   

Preface     

Alessandra Celletti  Elena Lega  Sylvio Ferraz-Mello 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2008,102(1-3):1-2

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Advances in pan‐European flood hazard mapping          下载免费PDF全文

Lorenzo Alfieri  Peter Salamon  Alessandra Bianchi  Jeffrey Neal  Paul Bates  Luc Feyen 《水文研究》2014,28(13):4067-4077

Flood hazard maps at trans‐national scale have potential for a large number of applications ranging from climate change studies, reinsurance products, aid to emergency operations for major flood crisis, among others. However, at continental scales, only few products are available, due to the difficulty of retrieving large consistent data sets. Moreover, these are produced at relatively coarse grid resolution, which limits their applications to qualitative assessments. At finer resolution, maps are often limited to country boundaries, due to limited data sharing at trans‐national level. The creation of a European flood hazard map would currently imply a collection of scattered regional maps, often lacking mutual consistency due to the variety of adopted approaches and quality of the underlying input data. In this work, we derive a pan‐European flood hazard map at 100 m resolution. The proposed approach is based on expanding a literature cascade model through a physically based approach. A combination of distributed hydrological and hydraulic models was set up for the European domain. Then, an observed meteorological data set is used to derive a long‐term streamflow simulation and subsequently coherent design flood hydrographs for a return period of 100 years along the pan‐European river network. Flood hydrographs are used to simulate areas at risk of flooding and output maps are merged into a pan‐European flood hazard map. The quality of this map is evaluated for selected areas in Germany and United Kingdom against national/regional hazard maps. Despite inherent limitations and model resolution issues, simulated maps are in good agreement with reference maps (hit rate between 59% and 78%, critical success index between 43% and 65%), suggesting strong potential for a number of applications at the European scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Rapid decrease of soil erosion rates with soil formation and vegetation development in periglacial areas     

Alessandra Musso  Michael E. Ketterer  Konrad Greinwald  Clemens Geitner  Markus Egli 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(12):2824-2839

High mountainous areas are geomorphologically active environments which are strongly shaped by redistribution of sediments and soils. With the projected climate warming in the twenty-first century and the continued retreat of glaciers, the area of newly exposed, highly erodible sediments and soils will increase. This presents a need to better understand and quantify erosion processes in young mountainous soils, as an increase in erodibility could threaten human infrastructure (i.e. hydroelectric power, tourist installations and settlements). While soil development is increasingly well understood and quantified, a coupling to soil erosion rates is still missing. The aim of this study was, therefore, to assess how soil erosion rates change with surface age. We investigated two moraine chronosequences in the Swiss Alps: one in the siliceous periglacial area of Steingletscher (Sustenpass), with soils ranging from 30 a to 10 ka, and the other in the calcareous periglacial area of Griessgletscher (Klausenpass) with surfaces ranging from age of 110 a to 13.5 ka. We quantified the erosion rates using the ^239+240Pu fallout radionuclides and compared them to physical and chemical soil properties and the vegetation coverage. We found no significant differences between the two parent materials. At both chronosequences, the erosion rates were highest in the young soils (on average 5−10 t ha^-1 a^-1 soil loss). Erosion rates decreased markedly after 3−5 ka of soil development (on average 1−2.5 t ha^-1 a^-1 soil loss) to reach a more or less stable situation after 10−14 ka (on average 0.3–2 t ha^-1 a^-1). Climate change not only causes glacier retreat, but also increased sediment dynamics. Depending on the relief and vegetational development, it takes up to at least 10 ka to reach soil stability. The establishment of a closed vegetation cover with dense root networks seems to be the controlling factor in the reduction of soil erodibility. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Changes in cetacean presence,relative abundance and distribution over 20 years along a trans‐regional fixed line transect in the Central Tyrrhenian Sea     

Antonella Arcangeli  Luca Marini  Roberto Crosti 《Marine Ecology》2013,34(1):112-121

From 1989 to 1992, systematic cetacean surveys were carried out twice weekly along a trans‐regional fixed transect in the Central Tyrrhenian Sea, utilising passenger ferries as research platforms. Using the same protocol and supervised by the same investigators, the research restarted in 2007, providing the opportunity to compare consistent data over a long 20‐year period. The monitored transect (Civitavecchia‐Golfo Aranci) runs along a strategic area just outside the southeastern border of the Pelagos Sanctuary. Over the last two decades, an increasing trend of temperature and salinity, in the deep and intermediate layers, has been documented in the region, as well as general changes over the Mediterranean basin. These changes, together with the increasing impact of some pressures (e.g. maritime traffic) may have led to changes in oceanographic and anthropogenic features and, subsequently, in cetacean presence and distribution. The research aimed to verify whether any changes occurred in the pattern of cetacean occurrence over the 20‐year period along the representative transect in the Central Tyrrhenian Sea. Data from 90 summer weekly runs undertaken in the 1990s were compared with data obtained from 95 runs undertaken in the 2000s. Each ferry run was considered an independent statistical unit: the encounter rate (ER = number of sightings per hour spent on effort) was calculated to compare relative abundance between periods, years and months. Spatial analysis was performed on geographical data using Kernel analysis to map the distribution of sightings. Logistic regression (GLM) was performed to compare habitat preference. Total encounter rate in the 1990s (ER = 0.59 ± CI 0.08) was significantly lower (P < 0.01) compared with the 2000s (ER = 0.94 ± CI 0.15). The same seven out of eight species known for their regular presence in the Mediterranean Sea were sighted in both the investigated periods. The most common species were striped dolphin (Stenella coeruleoalba), fin whale (Balaenoptera physalus) and common bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus). Neither the pilot whale nor any other rare or occasional species were sighted during the 6 years of the study. Despite the time span, no dramatic changes were observed for any species, bar fin whale, in terms of distribution, relative abundance, group size or habitat preference. Sightings of fin whale have surprisingly increased (+300%, P< 0.001), and their spatial and temporal distribution and habitat preference showed a radical difference between the two periods. The 2000s surveys confirmed the existence of high density areas of cetaceans, especially of fin whale, and the consequent necessity of specific legislative acts for cetacean conservation.  相似文献   

Numerical and experimental evaluation of site effects at ridges characterized by complex geological setting     

Alessandro Pagliaroli  Alessandra Avalle  Emanuela Falcucci  Stefano Gori  Fabrizio Galadini 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2015,13(10):2841-2865

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Modeling ground deformations of Panarea volcano hydrothermal/geothermal system (Aeolian Islands, Italy) from GPS data   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Alessandra Esposito  Marco Anzidei  Simone Atzori  Roberto Devoti  Guido Giordano  Grazia Pietrantonio 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2010,72(5):609-621

Panarea volcano (Aeolian Islands, Italy) was considered extinct until November 3, 2002, when a submarine gas eruption began in the area of the islets of Lisca Bianca, Bottaro, Lisca Nera, Dattilo, and Panarelli, about 2.5 km east of Panarea Island. The gas eruption decreased to a state of low degassing by July 2003. Before 2002, the activity of Panarea volcano was characterized by mild degassing of hydrothermal fluid. The compositions of the 2002 gases and their isotopic signatures suggested that the emissions originated from a hydrothermal/geothermal reservoir fed by magmatic fluids. We investigate crustal deformation of Panarea volcano using the global positioning system (GPS) velocity field obtained by the combination of continuous and episodic site observations of the Panarea GPS network in the time span 1995–2007. We present a combined model of Okada sources, which explains the GPS results acquired in the area from December 2002. The kinematics of Panarea volcano show two distinct active crustal domains characterized by different styles of horizontal deformation, supported also by volcanological and structural evidence. Subsidence on order of several millimeters/year is affecting the entire Panarea volcano, and a shortening of 10⁻⁶ year⁻¹ has been estimated in the Islets area. Our model reveals that the degassing intensity and distribution are strongly influenced by geophysical-geochemical changes within the hydrothermal/geothermal system. These variations may be triggered by changes in the regional stress field as suggested by the geophysical and volcanological events which occurred in 2002 in the Southern Tyrrhenian area.  相似文献   

Holocene environmental instability in the wetland north of the Tiber delta (Rome,Italy): sea-lake-man interactions     

Federico Di Rita  Alessandra Celant  Donatella Magri 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2010,44(1):51-67

Combined analyses of pollen, seeds, woods, micro-charcoal and non-pollen palynomorphs from Stagno di Maccarese, an artificially dried out coastal basin north of the Tiber delta now occupied by the Fiumicino Airport (Rome, Italy), document marked vegetation and environmental changes during the last 8300 years. Between 8300 and 5400 cal. a BP dense mixed deciduous and evergreen forests surrounded a eutrophic freshwater basin. An abrupt change around 5400 cal. a BP marks the transition to a marshy environment, due to a lowering of the water table. An increase of cereals and micro-charcoals matches the presence of a nearby Eneolithic settlement. Between 5100 and 2900 cal. a BP there is a remarkable expansion of riparian trees, indicating an increase of the water level. Between 2900 and 2000 cal. a BP, a new development of marshlands points to a progressive lowering of the lake. After 2000 cal. a BP, during the Roman exploitation of the area, an expansion of arboreal vegetation is recorded, characterized by evergreen and deciduous oak-dominated forests, while an extensive chenopods marshland matches the presence of saltworks. On the whole, the Stagno di Maccarese area appears very unstable, due to changes in lake level, introgression of marine water, eutrophic phases, flood events, desiccations and openings of the forest vegetation.  相似文献