How to improve attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts     

Heidi Kreibich  Veit Blauhut  Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts  Laurens M. Bouwer  Henny A.J. Van Lanen  Alfonso Mejia 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(Z2):1-18

ABSTRACT

For the development of sustainable, efficient risk management strategies for the hydrological extremes of droughts and floods, it is essential to understand the temporal changes of impacts, and their respective causes and interactions. In particular, little is known about changes in vulnerability and their influence on drought and flood impacts. We present a fictitious dialogue between two experts, one in droughts and the other in floods, showing that the main obstacles to scientific advancement in this area are both a lack of data and a lack of commonly accepted approaches. The drought and flood experts “discuss” available data and methods and we suggest a complementary approach. This approach consists of collecting a large number of single or multiple paired-event case studies from catchments around the world, undertaking detailed analyses of changes in impacts and drivers, and carrying out a comparative analysis. The advantages of this approach are that it allows detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the paired-event analyses, and reveals general, transferable conclusions based on the comparative analysis of various case studies. Additionally, it is quite flexible in terms of data and can accommodate differences between floods and droughts.  相似文献   

An example of fingerprint detection of greenhouse climate change     

DJ Karoly  JA Cohen  GA Meehl  JFB Mitchell  AH Oort  RJ Stouffer  RT Wetherald 《Climate Dynamics》1994,10(1-2):97-105

As an example of the technique of fingerprint detection of greenhouse climate change, a multivariate signal or fingerprint of the enhanced greenhouse effect is defined using the zonal mean atmospheric temperature change as a function of height and latitude between equilibrium climate model simulations with control and doubled CO₂ concentrations. This signal is compared with observed atmospheric temperature variations over the period 1963 to 1988 from radiosonde-based global analyses. There is a significant increase of this greenhouse signal in the observational data over this period.These results must be treated with caution. Upper air data are available for a short period only, possibly too short to be able to resolve any real greenhouse climate change. The greenhouse fingerprint used in this study may not be unique to the enhanced greenhouse effect and may be due to other forcing mechanisms. However, it is shown that the patterns of atmospheric temperature change associated with uniform global increases of sea surface temperature, with El NinoSouthern Oscillation events and with decreases of stratospheric ozone concentrations individually are different from the greenhouse fingerprint used here.  相似文献   

A tertiary fold and thrust belt in the Valle del Cauca Basin, Colombian Andes     

C.A. Alfonso  P.E. Sacks  D.T. Secor  J. Rine  V. Perez 《Journal of South American Earth Sciences》1994,7(3-4)

Surface geology and heophysical data, supplemented by regional structural interpretations, indicate that the Valle del Cauca basin and adjacent areas in west-central Colombia form a west-vergent, basement-involved fold and thrust belt. This belt is part of a Cenozoic orogen developed along the west side of the Romeral fault system. Structural analysis and geometrical constraints show that the Mesozoic ophiolitic basement and its Cenozoic sedimentary cover are involved in a “thick-skinned” west-vergent foreland style deformation. The rocks are transported and shortened by deeply rooted thrust faults and stacked in imbricate fashion. The faults have a NE---SW regional trend, are listric in shape, developed as splay faults which are interpreted as joining a common detachment at over 10 km depth. The faults carry Paleogene sedimentary strata and Cretaceous basement rocks westward over Miocene strata of the Valle del Cauca Basin. Fold axes trend parallel or sub parallel to the thrust faults. The folds are westwardly asymmetrical with parallel to kink geometry, and are interpreted to be fault-propagation folds stacked in an imbricate thrust system. Stratigraphic evidence suggests that the Valle del Cauca basin was deformed between Oligocene and upper Miocene time. The kinematic history outlined above is consistent with an oblique convergence between the Panama and South American plates during the Cenozoic.A negative residual Bouguer anomaly of 20–70 mgls in the central part of the Valle del Cauca basin indicates that a substantial volume of low density sedimentary rocks is concealed beneath the thrust sheets exposed at the land surface. The hydrocarbon potential of the Valle del Cauca should be reevaluated in light of the structural interpretations presented in this paper.  相似文献   

Comment on “The solubility of aragonite in seawater”     

Alfonso Mucci  Frank J. Millero  John W. Morse 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》1982,46(1):105-107

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The incorporation of Mg²⁺ and Sr²⁺ into calcite overgrowths: influences of growth rate and solution composition     

Alfonso Mucci  John W Morse 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》1983,47(2):217-233

The concentrations of Mg²⁺ and Sr²⁺ incorporated within calcite overgrowths precipitated from seawater and related solutions, determined at 25°C, were independent of the precipitation rate over approximately an order of magnitude. The saturation states used to produce this range of precipitation rates varied from 3 to 17 depending on the composition of the solution.The amount of Mg²⁺ incorporated in the overgrowths was not directly proportional to $\text{Mg}{}^{\mathrm{2+}}\text{Ca}{}^{\mathrm{2+}}$ in solution over the entire range (1–20) of ratios studied. Below a ratio of 7.5, the overgrowth was enriched in MgCO₃ relative to what is predicted by the constant distribution coefficient measured above a ratio of 7.5. This increased MgCO₃ correlates with the relative enrichment of adsorbed Mg²⁺. Above a ratio of 7.5 the concentration of MgCO₃ in the calcite overgrowths followed a classical thermodynamic behavior characterized by a constant distribution coefficient of 0.0123 (±0.008 std dev).The concentration of SrCO₃ incorporated in the overgrowths was linearly related to the MgCO₃ content of the overgrowths, and is attributed to increased solubility of SrCO₃ in calcite due to the incorporation of the smaller Mg²⁺ ions.The kinetic data indicate that the growth mechanism involves the adsorption of the cations on the surface of the calcite prior to dehydration and final incorporation. It is suggested that dehydration of cations at the surface is the rate controlling step.  相似文献   

Calculation of the visible-UV absorption spectra of hydrogen sulfide,bisulfide, polysulfides,and As and Sb sulfides,in aqueous solution     

JA?TossellEmail author 《Geochemical transactions》2003,4(1):28

Recently we showed that visible-UV spectra in aqueous solution can be accurately calculated for arsenic (III) bisulfides, such as As(SH)₃, As(SH)₂S^- and their oligomers. The calculated lowest energy transitions for these species were diagnostic of their protonation and oligomerization state. We here extend these studies to As and Sb oxidation state III and v sulfides and to polysulfides S _n ^2- , n = 2–6, the bisulfide anion, SH^-, hydrogen sulfide, H₂S and the sulfanes, S _n H₂, n = 2–5. Many of these calculations are more difficult than those performed for the As(iii) bisulfides, since the As and Sb(v) species are more acidic and therefore exist as highly charged anions in neutral and basic solutions. In general, small and/or highly charged anions are more difficult to describe computationally than larger, monovalent anions or neutral molecules. We have used both Hartree-Fock based (CI Singles and Time-Dependent HF) and density functional based (TD B3LYP) techniques for the calculations of absorption energy and intensity and have used both explicit water molecules and a polarizable continuum to describe the effects of hydration. We correctly reproduce the general trends observed experimentally, with absorption energies increasing from polysulfides to As, Sb sulfides to SH^- to H₂S. As and Sb(v) species, both monomers and dimers, also absorb at characteristically higher energies than do the analogous As and Sb(III)species. There is also a small reduction in absorption energy from monomeric to dimeric species, for both As and Sb III and v. The polysufides, on the other hand, show no simple systematic changes in UV spectra with chain length, n, or with protonation state. Our results indicate that for the As and Sb sulfides, the oxidation state, degree of protonation and degree of oligomerization can all be determined from the visible-UV absorption spectrum. We have also calculated the aqueous phase energetics for the reaction of S₈ with SH^- to produce the polysulfides, S _n H^-, n = 2–6. Our results are in excellent agreement with available experimental data, and support the existence of a S₆ species.  相似文献   

DFT study of the cation arrangements in the octahedral and tetrahedral sheets of dioctahedral 2:1 phyllosilicates     

Alfonso Hernández-Laguna  Elizabeth Escamilla-Roa  Vicente Timón  Martin T. Dove  C. Ignacio Sainz-Díaz 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2006,33(10):655-666

Quantum mechanical calculations based on the density functional theory (DFT) are used to study the crystal structures of dioctahedral 2:1 phyllosilicates. The isomorphous cation substitution is investigated by exploring different substitutions of octahedral Al³⁺ by Mg²⁺ or Fe³⁺, tetrahedral substitution of Si⁴⁺ by Al³⁺, and different interlayer cations (IC) (Na⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺, and Mg²⁺). Samples with different kinds of layer charges are studied: only tetrahedrally charged, only octahedrally charged, or mixed octahedral/tetrahedral charged. The effect of the relative arrangements of these substitutions on the lattice parameters and total energy is studied. The experimental observation of segregation tendency of Fe³⁺ and dispersion tendency of Mg²⁺ in the octahedral sheet is reproduced and explained with reference to the relative energies of the octahedral cation arrangements. These energies are higher than those due to the IC/tetrahedral and IC/octahedral relative arrangements. The tetrahedral and octahedral substitutions that generate charged layers also tend to be dispersed. The octahedral cation exchange potentials change with the IC-charge/ionic radius value.  相似文献   

Late Neoproterozoic crustal growth in the European Variscides: Nd isotope and geochemical evidence from the Sierra de Córdoba Andesites (Ossa-Morena Zone, Southern Spain)     

Christian Pin  Eladio Lin  Emilio Pascual  Teodosio Donaire  Alfonso Valenzuela 《Tectonophysics》2002,352(1-2)

Because the Hercynian overprint was extremely weak, the Sierra de Córdoba (southeastern Ossa-Morena Zone, OMZ) provides an excellent opportunity to study the tectonic evolution of sequences deposited close to the Late Neoproterozoic–Early Palaeozoic boundary. In order to put constraints on the sources and geodynamic significance of the Late Proterozoic magmatism, a representative set of 18 igneous rocks, and 3 interbedded sedimentary rocks from the San Jerónimo Formation have been studied for major and trace element geochemistry and for the Sm–Nd isotopic systematics. The igneous rocks are generally porphyritic to microporphyritic andesites, with abundant plagioclase (±amphibole) phenocrysts. With the exception of two intrusive rocks, possibly not related to the Late Proterozoic episode, all the samples display positive _{Nd550 Ma} values, ranging from +2.9 to +7.6. Most of them, with +4<_{Nd550 Ma}<+6, exhibit LREE enrichment, high La/Nb ratios, and elevated Zr/Nb ratios ranging from 21 to 32. There is no obvious correlation between the shape of REE patterns, La/Nb ratios and _{Nd550 Ma} values, precluding simple models of late-stage interaction with typical crustal components having low _Nd and high LREE/HREE and La/Nb ratios. Based on their major element composition and enriched, continental crust-like trace element characteristics, combined with distinctly positive _Nd initial values, the Córdoba andesites document an episode of crustal growth through the addition of calc-alkaline magmas, extracted from a mantle reservoir which was strongly depleted in LREE on a time-integrated basis. The occurrence of interlayered sediments of continental provenance (negative _Nd values) does not favour a purely ensimatic arc setting, remote from continental land masses, for this subduction-related magmatism, but the geochemical data suggest an active margin environment located on relatively juvenile crust. In any case, the Córdoba andesites document the addition of materials chemically similar to the bulk continental crust which were extracted from mantle sources with strong time-integrated LREE depletion. Therefore, they provide evidence for crustal growth related to Cadomian orogenic events during Late Proterozoic times.  相似文献   

华北北部中生代岩墙群   总被引：27，自引：19，他引：27  

邵济安  张履桥 《岩石学报》2002,18(3):312-318

岩墙群是深源岩浆浅侵位的产物，它可提供有关壳-幔演化的重要信息。通过华北北部大同早中生代碳酸岩-煌斑岩岩墙群、赤峰早中生代闪长玢岩岩墙群、林西中生代辉绿岩岩墙群、京北晚中生代双峰式岩墙群的对比研究，揭示了华北中生代存在的两次底侵作用及其相关的伸展作用。华北早、晚中生代岩墙群与晋北地区元古代岩墙群的初步对比，从一个侧面反映了华北壳幔的演变。  相似文献   

The Differential Geochemical Behavior of Arsenic and Phosphorus in the Water Column and Sediments of the Saguenay Fjord Estuary, Canada     

Alfonso Mucci  Louis-Filip Richard  Marc Lucotte  Constance Guignard 《Aquatic Geochemistry》2000,6(3):293-324

The distribution and partitioning of dissolved andparticulate arsenic and phosphorus in the water columnand sediments of the Saguenay Fjord in Quebec, Canada,are compared. In addition, selective and/or sequentialextractions were carried out on the suspendedparticulate matter (SPM) and solid sediments tocontrast their geochemical behaviors in this naturalaquatic system.Results of our analyses show that both arsenic andsoluble reactive phosphate are actively scavenged fromthe water column by settling particles. Upon theiraccumulation at the sediment-water interface some Asand P may be released to porewaters following thedegradation of organic matter to which they areassociated. The porewater concentrations are, however,limited by their strong affinity for authigenic,amorphous iron oxyhydroxides which accumulate in theoxic sediments near the sediment-water interface.The geochemical behavior of arsenic and phosphorusdiverge most strikingly upon the development of anoxicconditions in the sediments. Following their burial inthe anoxic zone, amorphous iron oxyhydroxides arereduced and dissolved, releasing phosphate and arsenicto the porewaters. We observed, however, thatporewater arsenic concentrations increase at shallowerdepths than phosphate in the sediments. The reductionof arsenate, As(V), to arsenite, As(III), and itsdesorption prior to the reductive dissolution of thecarrier phase(s) may explain this observation.Driven by the strong concentration gradientestablished in the suboxic zone, phosphate diffuses uptowards the oxic layer where it is readsorbed byauthigenic iron oxyhydroxides. In the organic-rich andrapidly accumulating sediments at the head of theFjord, porewater sulfate depletion and the resultingabsence of a sulfide sink for Fe(II), may lead to theformation of vivianite in the fermentation zone, apotential sink for phosphate. Arsenite released to theporewaters in the suboxic and anoxic zones of thesediments diffuses either down, where it is adsorbedto or incorporated with authigenic iron sulfides, orup towards the oxic boundary. Arsenite appears tomigrate well into the oxic zone where it may beoxidized by authigenic manganese oxides before beingadsorbed by iron oxyhydroxides present at the samedepth. Whereas, in the absence of authigenic carbonatefluorapatite precipitation, the ability of oxicsediments to retain mineralized phosphate is afunction of their amorphous iron oxyhydroxide content,arsenic retention may depend on the availability ofmanganese oxides, the thickness of the oxic layer and,its co-precipitation with iron sulfides at depth.  相似文献