Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Weiqing Han  Gerald A. Meehl  Detlef Stammer  Aixue Hu  Benjamin Hamlington  Jessica Kenigson  Hindumathi Palanisamy  Philip Thompson 《Surveys in Geophysics》2017,38(1):217-250

Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth’s climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.  相似文献   

A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

L. Goddard  A. Kumar  A. Solomon  D. Smith  G. Boer  P. Gonzalez  V. Kharin  W. Merryfield  C. Deser  S. J. Mason  B. P. Kirtman  R. Msadek  R. Sutton  E. Hawkins  T. Fricker  G. Hegerl  C. A. T. Ferro  D. B. Stephenson  G. A. Meehl  T. Stockdale  R. Burgman  A. M. Greene  Y. Kushnir  M. Newman  J. Carton  I. Fukumori  T. Delworth 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(1-2):245-272

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.  相似文献   

自适应转换波炮域偏移方法的研究与应用          下载免费PDF全文

李大卫  何艳  高宏亮  钟萍 《地球物理学进展》2009,24(6):2122-2127

抛开常规的转换点位置估计及极性校正,把检波点作为虚拟震源,利用单程波方程实现转换波记录的炮域偏移处理.由于该方法具有无需寻找转换点位置和进行极性校正的自适应特性,尤其适合于复杂构造转换波记录成像,并且在整个偏移处理流程中减少了估算转换点位置这一环节,有利于偏移精度的进一步提高,同时提高了运算效率.理论模型及实际资料的处理效果论证了该方法的正确性和有效性.  相似文献   

How sensitive are the Pacific–tropical North Atlantic teleconnections to the position and intensity of El Niño-related warming?     

A. S. Taschetto  R. R. Rodrigues  G. A. Meehl  S. McGregor  M. H. England 《Climate Dynamics》2016,46(5-6):1841-1860

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Greenhouse sensitivity experiments with penetrative cumulus convection and tropical cirrus albedo effects     

Warren M Washington  Gerald A Meehl 《Climate Dynamics》1993,8(5):211-223

Results are presented from two versions of a global R15 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled to a nondynamic, 50-m deep, slab ocean. Both versions include a penetrative convection scheme that has the effect of pumping more moisture higher into the troposphere. One also includes a simple prescribed functional dependence of cloud albedo in areas of high sea-surface temperature (SST) and deep convection. Previous analysis of observations has shown that in regions of high SST and deep convection, the upper-level cloud albedos increase as a result of the greater optical depth associated with increased moisture content. Based on these observations, we prescribe increased middle- and upper-level cloud albedos in regions of SST greater than 303 K where deep convection occurs. This crudely accounts for a type of cloud optical property feedback, but is well short of a computed cloud-optical property scheme. Since great uncertainty accompanies the formulation and tuning of such schemes, the prescribed albedo feedback is an intermediate step to examine basic feedbacks and sensitivities. We compare the two model versions (with earlier results from the same model with convective adjustment) to a model from the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) having convective adjustment and a computed cloud optical properties feedback scheme and to several other GCMs. The addition of penetrative convection increases tropospheric moisture, cloud amount, and planetary albedo and decreases net solar input at the surface. However, the competing effect of increased downward infrared flux (from increased tropospheric moisture) causes a warmer surface and increased latent heat flux. Adding the prescribed cirrus albedo feedback decreases net solar input at the surface in the tropics, since the cloud albedos increase in regions of high SST and deep convection. Downward infrared radiation (from increased moisture) also increases, but this effect is overpowered by the reduced solar input in the tropics. Therefore, the surface is somewhat cooler in the tropics, latent heat flux decreases, and global average sensitivity to a doubling of CO₂ with regard to temperature and precipitation/evaporation feedback is reduced. Similar processes, evident in the CCC model with convective adjustment and a computed cloud optical properties feedback scheme, occur over a somewhat expanded latitudinal range. The addition of penetrative convection produces global effects, as does the prescribed cirrus albedo feedback, although the strongest local effects of the latter occur in the tropics.Portions of this study are supported by the Office of Health and Environmental Research of the U.S. Department of Energy as part of its Carbon Dioxide Research Program, and by the Electric Power Research Institute as part of its Model Evaluation Consortium for Climate Assessment ProjectThe National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation  相似文献   

TritonX-100－5-Br-PADAP光度法测定铜和镍   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

萨木嘎  刘颖  嘎日迪 《岩矿测试》1999,18(4):5

研究了非离子型表面活性剂Ｔｒｉｔｏｎ Ｘ－ １００ 存在下,用５ － Ｂｒ － ＰＡＤＡＰ 光度法测定铜、镍的方法。结果表明：在ｐＨ９ ．０ 的硼砂缓冲介质中,５ － Ｂｒ － ＰＡＤＡＰ 与铜和镍生成紫红色络合物,λＣｕｍ ａｘ ＝ ５７５ ｎｍ ,εＣｕ ＝ １ ．０４ ×１０５ Ｌ·ｍｏｌ－ １·ｃｍ － １ ;λＮｉｍ ａｘ ＝ ５７５ ｎｍ ,εＮｉ ＝ １ ．１４ ×１０５ Ｌ·ｍｏｌ－ １·ｃｍ － １ 。铜和镍的质量浓度分别在０ ～５６０ μｇ／ Ｌ和０ ～４４０ μｇ／ Ｌ符合比尔定律。加入六偏磷酸钠后,由于偏磷酸镍的形成,镍不再与５ － Ｂｒ － ＰＡＤＡＰ 显色,可通过铜及铜镍总量的测定,计算出镍的含量。用该方法实测了钢样中铜和镍的含量,结果与推荐值相符,对铜和镍５ 次测定的ＲＳＤ均小于５ ％ 。  相似文献   

粤北笋洞花岗岩的形成时代、地球化学特征与成因   总被引：25，自引：10，他引：25  

凌洪飞沈渭洲  邓平蒋少涌  高剑峰叶海敏濮巍  谭正中 《岩石学报》2004,20(3):413-424

笋洞花岗岩体是粤北贵东复式花岗岩体的一个重要组成部分。锆石U-Pb年龄为189.1±0.7Ma,是燕山早期岩浆活动产物。该岩体的主要元素显示富硅、富碱、强过铝质和低 CaO/Na_2O比值等特征;微量元素方面,富集Rb,Th,U,Ce,Sm,Y,亏损 Ba,Sr,P,Ti;LREE轻微富集(LREE/HREE=6.6～8.8,(La/Yb)_N=6.44～10.74),Eu亏损明显(δEu=0.14～0.31);它具有低的ε_(Nd)(t)(-11.4～-9.3),高的δ~(18)O(10.2～12.7‰)、(~(87)Sr/~(86)Sr);(0.72949～0.74923)、~(206)Pb/~(204)Pb(18.180～18.488)、~(207)Pb/~(204)Pb(15.655～15.661)和古老的Nd模式年龄(1762～1933Ma)。上述这些特征表明,笋洞岩体属于典型的壳源型花岗岩,是在地壳伸展-减薄的构造背景下,通过以泥质成分为主的古-中元古代变质沉积岩部分熔融的方式形成。  相似文献   

The ACPI Climate Change Simulations     

Aiguo Dai  W. M. Washington  G. A. Meehl  T. W. Bettge  W. G. Strand 《Climatic change》2004,62(1-3):29-43

The Parallel Climate Model (PCM) has been used in the Accelerated ClimatePrediction Initiative (ACPI) Program to simulate the global climateresponse to projected CO₂, sulfate, and other greenhouse gasforcingunder a business-as-usual emissions scenario during the 21st century. In these runs, the oceans were initialized to 1995 conditions by a group from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and other institutions. An ensemble of three model runs was then carried out to the year 2099 using the projected forcing. Atmospheric data fromthese runs were saved at 6-hourly intervals (hourly for certain criticalfields) to support the ACPI objective of accurately modeling hydrologicalcycles over the western U.S. It is shown that the initialization to1995 conditions partly removes the un-forced oceanic temperature and salinity drifts that occurred in the standard 20th century integration. The ACPI runs show a global surface temperature increase of 3–8 °C over northern high-latitudes by the end of the 21st century, and 1–2 °C over the oceans. This is generally within ±0.1°Cof model runs without the 1995 ocean initialization. The exception is in theAntarctic circumpolar ocean where surface air temperature is cooler in theACPI run; however the ensemble scatter is large in this region. Althoughthe difference in climate at the end of the 21st century is minimalbetween the ACPI runs and traditionally spun up runs, it might be largerfor CGCMs with higher climate sensitivity or larger ocean drifts. Ourresults suggest that the effect of small errors in the oceans (such asthose associated with climate drifts) on CGCM-simulated climate changesfor the next 50–100 years may be negligible.  相似文献   

Sea-ice effects on climate model sensitivity and low frequency variability     

G. A. Meehl  J. M. Arblaster  W. G. Strand Jr 《Climate Dynamics》2000,16(4):257-271

A change in a sea-ice parameter in a global coupled climate model results in a reduction in amplitude (of about 60%) and a shortening of the predominant period of decadal low frequency variability in the time series of globally averaged surface air temperature. These changes are global in extent and also are reflected in time series of area-averaged SSTs in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean, the principal components of the first EOFs of global surface air temperature and sea level pressure, Asian monsoon precipitations and other quantities. Coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice processes acting on a global scale are modified to produce these changes. Global climate sensitivity is reduced when ice albedo feedback is weakened due to the change in sea ice that makes it more difficult to melt. The changes in the amplitude and time scale of the low frequency variability in the model are traced to changes in the base state of the climate simulations as affected by modifications associated with the changes in sea ice. Making sea ice more difficult to melt results in increased sea-ice area, colder high latitudes, increased meridional surface temperature gradients, and, to a first order, stronger surface winds in most regions which strengthen near-surface currents, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, and decreases the advection time scale in the upper ocean gyres. Additionally, in the North Atlantic there is enhanced meridional overturning due to increased density mainly in the Greenland Sea region. This also contributes to an intensified North Atlantic gyre. The changes in base state due to the sea ice change result in a more predominant decadal time scale of near 14 years and significantly reduced contributions from lower frequencies in the range of 15–40 year periods. Received: 11 December 1998 / Accepted: 4 October 1999  相似文献   

The seasonal cycle in coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

C. Covey  A. Abe-Ouchi  G. J. Boer  B. A. Boville  U. Cubasch  L. Fairhead  G. M. Flato  H. Gordon  E. Guilyardi  X. Jiang  T. C. Johns  H. Le Treut  G. Madec  G. A. Meehl  R. Miller  A. Noda  S. B. Power  E. Roeckner  G. Russell  E. K. Schneider  R. J. Stouffer  L. Terray  J.-S. von Storch 《Climate Dynamics》2000,16(10-11):775-787

We examine the seasonal cycle of near-surface air temperature simulated by 17 coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Nine of the models use ad hoc “flux adjustment” at the ocean surface to bring model simulations close to observations of the present-day climate. We group flux-adjusted and non-flux-adjusted models separately and examine the behavior of each class. When averaged over all of the flux-adjusted model simulations, near-surface air temperature falls within 2?K of observed values over the oceans. The corresponding average over non-flux-adjusted models shows errors up to ～6?K in extensive ocean areas. Flux adjustments are not directly applied over land, and near-surface land temperature errors are substantial in the average over flux-adjusted models, which systematically underestimates (by ～5?K) temperature in areas of elevated terrain. The corresponding average over non-flux-adjusted models forms a similar error pattern (with somewhat increased amplitude) over land. We use the temperature difference between July and January to measure seasonal cycle amplitude. Zonal means of this quantity from the individual flux-adjusted models form a fairly tight cluster (all within ～30% of the mean) centered on the observed values. The non-flux-adjusted models perform nearly as well at most latitudes. In Southern Ocean mid-latitudes, however, the non-flux-adjusted models overestimate the magnitude of January-minus-July temperature differences by ～5?K due to an overestimate of summer (January) near-surface temperature. This error is common to five of the eight non-flux-adjusted models. Also, over Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude land areas, zonal mean differences between July and January temperatures simulated by the non-flux-adjusted models show a greater spread (positive and negative) about observed values than results from the flux-adjusted models. Elsewhere, differences between the two classes of models are less obvious. At no latitude is the zonal mean difference between averages over the two classes of models greater than the standard deviation over models. The ability of coupled GCMs to simulate a reasonable seasonal cycle is a necessary condition for confidence in their prediction of long-term climatic changes (such as global warming), but it is not a sufficient condition unless the seasonal cycle and long-term changes involve similar climatic processes. To test this possible connection, we compare seasonal cycle amplitude with equilibrium warming under doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide for the models in our data base. A small but positive correlation exists between these two quantities. This result is predicted by a simple conceptual model of the climate system, and it is consistent with other modeling experience, which indicates that the seasonal cycle depends only weakly on climate sensitivity.  相似文献