Vulnerability of water resources,vegetation productivity and soil erosion to climate change in Mediterranean watersheds     

João Pedro Nunes  Júlia Seixas  Nuno Ricardo Pacheco 《水文研究》2008,22(16):3115-3134

Climate change is expected to increase temperatures and lower rainfall in Mediterranean regions; however, there is a great degree of uncertainty as to the amount of change. This limits the prediction capacity of models to quantify impacts on water resources, vegetation productivity and erosion. This work circumvents this problem by analysing the sensitivity of these variables to varying degrees of temperature change (increased by up to 6·4 °C), rainfall (reduced by up to 40%) and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (increased by up to 100%). The SWAT watershed model was applied to 18 large watersheds in two contrasting regions of Portugal, one humid and one semi‐arid; incremental changes to climate variables were simulated using a stochastic weather generator. The main results indicate that water runoff, particularly subsurface runoff, is highly sensitive to these climate change trends (down by 80%). The biomass growth of most species showed a declining trend (wheat down by 40%), due to the negative impacts of increasing temperatures, dampened by higher CO₂ concentrations. Mediterranean species, however, showed a positive response to milder degrees of climate change. Changes to erosion depended on the interactions between the decline in surface runoff (driving erosion rates downward) and biomass growth (driving erosion rates upward). For the milder rainfall changes, soil erosion showed a significant increasing trend in wheat fields (up to 150% in the humid watersheds), well above the recovery capacity of the soil. Overall, the results indicate a shift of the humid watersheds to acquire semi‐arid characteristics, such as more irregular river flows and increasingly marginal conditions for agricultural production. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Spatial Analysis of Airborne Geophysical Data Applied to Geological Mapping and Mineral Prospecting in the Serra Leste Region, Carajás Mineral Province, Brazil     

Carlos Roberto de Souza Filho  Alfredo Rossetto Nunes  Emilson Pereira Leite  Lena Virgínia Soares Monteiro  Roberto Perez Xavier 《Surveys in Geophysics》2007,28(5-6):377-405

The Serra Leste region, located in the northeast portion of Carajás Mineral Province (PA), hosts important chrome-PGE, Au–Pd–Pt, Cu–Mo–Au, iron, and manganese deposits and occurrences related to different geological settings. We present a regional prospective model with focus on PGE mineralizations based on airborne geophysics (magnetometry, gamma-ray spectrometry and time domain electromagnetometry) and geological data. Geological and geophysics data analysis indicate a plausible correspondence between areas with meta-mafic–ultramafic rocks and low values in gamma spectrometry, mainly for the thorium channel. The meta-ultramafic units of the complexes, the main host rock of the PGE mineralization, are well defined by analytic signal from the anomalous magnetic field and by the apparent conductance anomalies derived from the GEOTEM system. The combination of the derivative products with updated geological data of the Serra Leste region and PGE-Luanga deposit enable to establish a regional prospective model for PGE and the identification of new targets within the studied area.  相似文献   

Contrasting hydrothermal activity at Sierra Negra and Alcedo volcanoes, Galapagos Archipelago, Ecuador     

Fraser Goff  Gary M. McMurtry  Dale Counce  James A. Simac  Alfredo R. Roldán-Manzo  David R. Hilton 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2000,62(1):34-52

2 and approximately 85% SO₂ of the total sulfur gas. Relative amounts of He, Ar, and N₂ show a distinct hot-spot signature ( ). The δ¹³C–CO₂ is approximately −3.6‰ and δ³⁴S_T is approximately +3.3‰. The δD/δ¹⁸O of fumarole H₂O indicates steam separation from local meteoric waters whose estimated minimum mean residence time from ³H analyses is ≤40 years. Fumarolic activity at Alcedo is controlled by a caldera-margin fault containing at least seven hydrothermal explosion craters, and by an intracaldera rhyolite vent. Two explosion craters which formed in 1993–1994 produce approximately 15 m³/s of steam, yet discharge temperatures are ≤97°C. Water content of the total gas is 95–97 mol.%, noncondensible gas is 92–98 mol.% CO₂, and sulfur gas is dominated by H₂S. Relative amounts of He, Ar, and N₂ show extensive mixing between hot spot and air or air-saturated meteoric water components but the average . The δ¹³C–CO₂ is approximately −3.5‰ and δ³⁴S_T is approximately −0.8‰. The δD/δ¹⁸O of fumarole steam indicates separation from a homogeneous reservoir that is enriched 3–5‰ in ¹⁸O compared with local meteoric water. ³H indicates that this reservoir water has a maximum mean residence time of approximately 400 years and empirical gas geothermometry indicates a reservoir temperature of 260–320°C. The intracaldera hydrothermal reservoir in Alcedo is probably capable of producing up to 150 MW; however, environmental concerns as well as lack of infrastructure and power users will limit the development of this resource. Received: 19 April 1999 / Accepted: 23 October 1999  相似文献   

Middle Terrace Deposits of the Tagus River in Alpiarça, Portugal, in Relation to Early Human Occupation     

Paolo Mozzi  Maria Teresa Azevedo  Elizabeth Nunes  Luis Raposo 《Quaternary Research》2000,54(3):359

The stratigraphy and sedimentology of the Q3 middle terrace alluvial sequence in the lower Tagus river valley, Portugal, were studied near the village of Alpiarça, approximately 40 km upstream from the estuarine area. Two main stratigraphic units were recognized, separated by an important uncomformity. The Lower Gravels unit (LG) consists of intercalations of medium to coarse gravel deposits, mainly quartzitic, with coarse sandy matrix, organized in tabular bodies. The overlying Upper Sands unit (US) consists of tabular sandy channel deposits and overbank fines, the latter containing well-developed paleosols and backswamp deposits, showing a general aggrading trend, apparently with varying rates; available data indicate that deposition of the US took place under temperate climatic conditions. Within US deposits are several paleolithic archaeological sites, the lower ones in the alluvial stratigraphy being Middle Acheulian, whereas those embedded in overlying deposits are, from bottom to top, Upper Acheulian and Micoquian. Some of these sites have been recently excavated. The quartzite artifacts were apparently abandoned by early humans on the flood plain surface during deposition of the US unit and were subjected to limited reworking during their incorporation in the alluvium. TL/OSL dating of sandy-silty sediments, though imprecise, support archaeological evidence pointing to an age of 150,000 to 70,000 yr B.P. for the US unit.  相似文献   

MIS 5/4 transition in a mountain environment: herpetofaunal assemblages from Cueva del Camino,central Spain     

Hugues‐Alexandre Blain  César Laplana  Paloma Sevilla  Juan Luis Arsuaga  Enrique Baquedano  Alfredo Pérez‐González 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2014,43(1):107-120

The Cueva del Camino site (Pinilla del Valle, Madrid, Spain) is located in the upper valley of the Lozoya River in the Sierra de Guadarrama, a mountain range extending NE?SW within the Central Range System. Due to its location within a mountain range on the central Iberian Peninsula at an altitude of 1114 m a.s.l. and the numerical dating of its sediments, the palaeontological site of Cueva del Camino has proved a highly relevant location for studying the ecological changes linked to the climatic fluctuations at the end of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5 and the beginning of MIS 4. Environmental reconstructions suggest a rather open, patchy landscape throughout the succession, with abundant evidence of dry meadows, scrublands and rocky habitats. The climate can be considered as generally warm, reaching mean annual temperatures (MATs) of up to 13.8°C (i.e. higher than today's by up to 2.9°C). Three cooler events can be seen throughout the succession as reflected by the presence of Rana iberica, Anguis fragilis and Coronella austriaca. The first of these events may correlate with MIS 5b; the second in the Central sector may correlate with the Stadial I pollen event occurring at the end of MIS 5a; and the third event, corresponding to the coldest MAT of the entire succession with MATs 0.9°C lower than today's, may correspond to the transition from MIS 5a to MIS 4. The evolution of mean annual precipitation (MAP) is characterized by warm periods, drier and cold periods, as well as wetter periods (up to +356 mm compared to today's MAP values), similar to what occurs today in the high‐elevation areas of the neighbouring mountains. Our study gives new quantitative estimations for the climatic fluctuations in mountain environments of central Spain at the MIS 5/4 transition and their associated ecological changes.  相似文献   

Reply to the Comment by Bergmann on “The Høvsøre Tall Wind-Profile Experiment: A Description of Wind Profile Observations in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer”     

Alfredo Peña  Rogier Floors  Sven-Erik Gryning 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2015,157(3):547-551

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Global climate models as forcing for regional ocean modeling: a sensitivity study in the Iberian Basin (Eastern North Atlantic)     

Ana Cordeiro Pires  Rita Nolasco  Alfredo Rocha  Alexandre M. Ramos  Jesus Dubert 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(3-4):1083-1102

This work evaluates the performance of several global climate models (GCMs) as forcing of a regional ocean model configuration centered in the Iberian Basin. The study is divided in two parts. First, the output of nine GCMs is analyzed based on the fields needed to force the ocean model (Regional Ocean Modelling System—ROMS). GCMs differ greatly between them and their performance depends on the field. In the second part, the two GCMs with the worst performances in both extremes of the ensemble are used as forcing for two ROMS simulations, with the purpose of assessing the range of uncertainty comprised in this set of GCMs. Two other ROMS runs are setup: one climatologically forced control run, and one forced with the average of all the nine GCMs—the ensemble mean. Results show that the tendency of overestimation/underestimation of the forcings is reflected in the modeled hydrography, both at the surface and deeper layers down to 500 m. Nevertheless, in terms of circulation, all four runs reproduce the Azores Current, as well as the coastal transition zone seasonality (winter poleward flow and summer upwelling-associated equatorward flow). The CGCMs output performance as forcing depends on the forcing variable: one performs well for one or more variables, but badly for others, and which field is well or badly reproduced varies for each CGCM. Therefore, there is not a single CGCM having the best forcing for all variables. Hence, our results indicate that the most adequate approach consists of using the ensemble mean as forcing rather than using an individual model. This is supported by the general low overall (i.e. for all forcing variables) errors of the ensemble mean regarding the control climatological dataset, and the good comparison of the ensemble-forced ROMS run with the control run.  相似文献   

Assessment of site-effects using acceleration time series. Application to São Sebastião volcanic crater     

Jaime A. Santos  Pedro Chitas  Isabel Lopes  Carlos Sousa Oliveira  Isabel Moitinho de Almeida  João Carlos Nunes 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2011

The Azores archipelago is located at the North America, Eurasia and Africa triple junction and shows seismicity and volcanism typical of an active plate boundary. Terceira Island has been affected by several damaging earthquakes being the 1980 January 1st event (M=7.2) the strongest in Azores during the last century.  相似文献   

Field observations from the Aquila, Italy earthquake of April 6, 2009   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

T. Rossetto  N. Peiris  J. E. Alarcon  E. So  S. Sargeant  M. Free  V. Sword-Daniels  D. Del Re  C. Libberton  E. Verrucci  P. Sammonds  J. Faure Walker 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2011,9(1):11-37

On April 6, 2009 an earthquake of magnitude 6.2 (M_w) struck the Abbruzzo region of Italy causing widespread damage to buildings in the city of L??Aquila and surrounding areas. This paper summarizes field observations made by the Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation Team (EEFIT) after the event. The paper presents an overview of seismological and geotechnical aspects of the earthquake as well as a summary of the observed damage to buildings and infrastructure. A brief overview of the earthquake casualties is also reported.  相似文献   

Reply to ��Comment on Sousa, M.L. and Costa, A.C., ��ground-motion scenarios consistent with probabilistic seismic hazard disaggregation analysis. Application to Mainland Portugal��?�� by Jo?o F. B. D. Fonseca and Susana P. Vilanova     

Maria Lu��sa Sousa  Alfredo Campos Costa 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2011,9(4):1297-1307

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