Flood-type trend analysis for alpine catchments     

Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner  Jan Seibert 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(8):1281-1299

ABSTRACT

In many places, magnitudes and frequencies of floods are expected to increase due to climate change. To understand these changes better, trend analyses of historical data are helpful. However, traditional trend analyses do not address issues related to shifts in the relative contributions of rainfall versus snowmelt floods, or in the frequency of a particular flood type. We present a novel approach for quantifying such trends in time series of floods using a fuzzy decision tree for event classification and applied it to maximal annual and seasonal floods in 27 alpine catchments for the period 1980–2014. Trends in flood types were studied with Sen’s slope and double mass curves. Our results reveal a decreasing number of rain-on-snow and an increasing number of short rainfall events in all catchments, with flash floods increasing in smaller catchments. Overall, the results demonstrate the value of incorporating a fuzzy flood-type classification into flood trend analyses.  相似文献   

Vertical Structure in the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer and its Implication for the Inertial Dissipation Method     

Anna Sjöblom  Ann-Sofi Smedman 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2003,109(1):1-25

The structure of the marine atmospheric boundarylayer and the validity ofMonin–Obukhov similarity theory over the seahave been investigated using longterm measurements. Three levels of turbulencemeasurements (at 10 m, 18 mand 26 m) at Östergarnsholm in themiddle of the Baltic Sea have beenanalysed. The results show that turbulentparameters have a strong dependenceon the actual height due to wave influence.The wind profile and thus thenormalised wind gradient are very sensitiveto wave state. The lower part of theboundary layer can be divided into three heightlayers, a wave influenced layerclose to the surface, a transition layer andan undisturbed ordinary surfacelayer; the depth of the layers is determinedby the wave state. This heightstructure can, however, not be found for thenormalised dissipation, which is onlya function of the stability, except duringpronounced swell where the actualheight also has to be accounted for. Theresults have implications for the heightvariation of the turbulent kinetic energy(TKE) budget. Thus, the imbalancebetween production and dissipation willalso vary with height according to thevariation of wave state. This, in turn,will of course have strong implicationsfor the inertial dissipation method, inwhich a parameterisation of the TKEbudget is used.  相似文献   

Tsunami hazard in the Eastern Mediterranean: strong earthquakes and tsunamis in Cyprus and the Levantine Sea     

Anna Fokaefs  Gerassimos A. Papadopoulos 《Natural Hazards》2007,40(3):503-526

A modern tsunami catalogue has been compiled for the region of Cyprus-Levantine Sea in which 24 certain or possible local tsunamis are listed from antiquity up to the present time, while six regional tsunamis, generated in the Hellenic arc, are documented which affected the region. Another set of 13 doubtful events not included in the catalogue are discussed. Tsunami intensities k and K were re-evaluated using the classic 6-grade and the new 12-grade intensity scales, respectively. The strongest tsunamis reported in the region of interest are those of 551 AD, 749, 1068, 1201, 1222, 1546 and 1759, all occurring along the Levantine coast from Gaza northward, with the exception of the 1222 wave which occurred in the Cyprean arc. The causative earthquakes, however, occur on land and are associated with the left-lateral strike-slip Levantine rift and, as such, remain unexplained. In this paper we speculate on the mechanism of these events. A second tsunami zone follows the Cyprean arc, where the situation of subaqueous seismogenic sources favours the generation of tsunamis by co-seismic fault displacements. Submarine or coastal earth slumping, however, may be an additional tsunamigenic component. Based on historical data, the average tsunami recurrence in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea region is roughly estimated to be around 30 years, 120 years and 375 years for moderate (k/K ≥ 2/3), strong (k/K ≥ 3/5) and very strong (k/K ≥ 5/8) events, respectively. The rate of tsunami occurrence equals 0.033, 8.3 × 10⁻³ and 2.7 × 10⁻³ events/year for intensity k/K ≥ 2/3, 3/5 and 5/8, respectively. For a Poissonian (random) process the probabilities of observing at least one moderate, strong or very strong tsunami are 0.28, 0.01 and 3 × 10⁻³ within 1 year, 0.81, 0.34 and 0.13 within 50 years and 0.96, 0.56 and 0.24 within 100 years, respectively. The tsunami potential in the Cyprus-Levantine Sea area is low relative to other Mediterranean tsunamigenic regions. However, the destructiveness of some historical events indicates the need to evaluate tsunami hazard by all available means. In addition, remote tsunamigenic sources, such as those of 1303 and 1481 in the eastern Hellenic arc, are able to threaten the coasts of the Cyprus-Levantine region and, therefore, such regional tsunamis should be taken into account in the evaluation of the tsunami risk of the region.  相似文献   

Zircon U-Pb geochronology and geochemistry of Late Devonian–Carboniferous granitoids in NW Iran: implications for the opening of Paleo-Tethys     

Ali Mohammadi  Mohssen Moazzen  Anna Lechmann  Oscar Laurent 《International Geology Review》2020,62(15):1931-1948

ABSTRACT

We present zircon U-Pb crystallization ages combined with bulk rock major and trace element geochemistry and Sr-Nd-Pb and zircon in-situ Hf isotopic compositions of the Amand and Moro granitoid intrusions in northwest Iran. The Amand and Moro plutons include granite and syeno-diorite with LA-ICP-MS U-Pb zircon ages of 367 ± 6.8 Ma and 351 ± 1.3 Ma, respectively, representative of Late Devonian-Early Carboniferous magmatic activity in NW Iran. Geochemical characteristics such as typical enrichments in alkalis, Nb, Zr, Ga and Y, depletion in P and Sr and fractionated REE patterns with high Ga/Al ratios and Eu negative anomalies are consistent with A-type magmatic signatures. The granitoids are classified as A₂-type and within-plate granitoids. The bulk rock geochemistry (enrichments in Th, Nb and, high Th/Yb, Zr/Y ratios) along with low variation of ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd_(i) and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_(i) ratios and positive zircon εHf_(t) support the role of a mantle plume component for the evolution of the Amand and Moro A-type granitoids in an extensional tectonic environment. In fitting with wider regional knowledge, this magmatism occurred during Paleo-Tethys opening in northern Gondwana.  相似文献   

MELIMEX,an experimental heavy metal pollution study: Particle size distributions in limno-corrals     

Herbert Hohl  Anna Vagenknecht 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》1979,41(2):190-201

The particle size distributions in three limno-corrals, located in Baldeggersee, Switzerland, have been determined by means of a Zeiss Micro-Videomat image analyzer as a function of depth and time. The distributions were measured biweekly over a period of 1 year at depths of 0 m, 2.5 m, 5 m, 7.5 m and 10 m (=above bottom). Two of the limno-corrals were charged with heavy metals, whereas the third was uncharged and served as a reference. The shape of the distributions as well as the particle concentrations in the uncharged container did not differ from the ones in the charged limno-corrals. The distributions were found to be self-preserving and independent on heavy metal load, time, depth and particle concentrations. As an average, the dependence of the distributions on the particle diameter was found to be ?1.5 to ?2.5.  相似文献   

A comment on the effect of discretization on dispersion     

Anna Slobodová  Reviewer F. Zítek 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1980,24(1):97-97

a mamumuu m, m n¶rt; u a¶rt;a au, um ¶rt;umuau. aam, m a au ¶rt;unu a¶rt;a au n ¶rt;umuauu u n¶rt; nu a an¶rt; a u uu aa ,¶rt; h a ¶rt;umuauu.  相似文献   

Application of the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios: Reflections and lessons learnt     

Megan Gawith  Roger Street  Richard Westaway  Anna Steynor 《Global Environmental Change》2009,19(1):113-121

The UKCIP02 climate change scenarios have become the standard reference for climate change in the UK since their release in 2002. This paper describes and reflects on the ways in which they have been applied. It then identifies some strengths, weaknesses and barriers to their application, and extracts key lessons that may inform the development and provision of future climate change scenarios.Analysis of the application of UKCIP02 shows that the scenarios have been used primarily as a communication device, as well as for scientific research and to inform policy and decision-making on climate change. They have played a critical role in raising awareness on climate change and in engaging organisations in the need to adapt. Their presentation in an accessible style, and their availability in a variety of formats, greatly facilitated their uptake. However, analysis has also revealed weaknesses which served as barriers to their uptake. Some of these, such as file format and accessibility issues, were readily overcome through technical solutions. Others, such as the issue of how to use uncertain information in decision-making, have only been partially addressed and remain an outstanding challenge for future scenario packages. Two key lessons have emerged which may benefit the provision of future climate scenarios in the UK and elsewhere. First, it is not enough to simply make climate change scenarios available. Their provision must be accompanied by ongoing guidance and support to ensure widespread and appropriate uptake. Second, on-going dialogue between those providing scenarios and the communities using them is fundamental to constructively meet the challenges associated with delivering credible scenarios that balance user requirements and expectations with what the science can deliver.  相似文献   

High frequency oscillations during magnetar flares     

Anna L. Watts  Tod E. Strohmayer 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2007,308(1-4):625-629

The recent discovery of high frequency oscillations during giant flares from the Soft Gamma Repeaters SGR 1806-20 and SGR 1900+14 may be the first direct detection of vibrations in a neutron star crust. If this interpretation is correct it offers a novel means of testing the neutron star equation of state, crustal breaking strain, and magnetic field configuration. We review the observational data on the magnetar oscillations, including new timing analysis of the SGR 1806-20 giant flare using data from the Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager and the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer. We discuss the implications for the study of neutron star structure and crust thickness, and outline areas for future investigation.   相似文献   

Mode identification of terrestrial ULF waves observed by Cluster: A case study   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Y. Hobara  S.N. Walker  M. Dunlop  M. Balikhin  O.A. Pokhotelov  H. Nilsson  H. Rme 《Planetary and Space Science》2007,55(15):2257-2260

Using multipoint measurements from the Cluster mission wave identification techniques are applied to observations of ULF waves made in the terrestrial foreshock with the aim of identifying the modes and properties of the waves taking into account the effects of a high beta plasma. The wave properties in the spacecraft and plasma rest frames are experimentally derived using minimum variance analysis. Two waves with periods of 30 and 3 s dominate the dynamic frequency spectrum. The results indicate that these waves propagate in the fast magnetosonic and Alfvén/Ion Cyclotron modes, respectively. Both waves propagate in the upstream direction in the plasma rest frame but are convected downstream in the spacecraft frame. The measured wave properties in the plasma rest frame are in good agreement with those obtained from the theoretical kinetic dispersion relation taking into account the effects of different plasma beta. The dispersion results show a rather significant deviation from fluid model, especially when high beta plasma conditions occur. These experimentally derived foreshock ULF wave properties are in good agreement with previous results but when the effects of a high beta plasma are considered it is not as straight forward to choose the correct wave mode branch.  相似文献   

The first cuckoo in winter: Phenology,recording, credibility and meaning in Britain     

Anna Lawrence 《Global Environmental Change》2009,19(2):173-179

Biological recording is a long-established feature of amateur natural history in Britain. Phenology (the recording of seasonal events) in particular has provided scientists with important long-term data sets. These data are of increasing interest as indicators of climate change and its impacts. Most scientists treat the data as the object of interest, while less attention has been paid to the two-way process of knowledge creation, and the significance of the inner, personal part of that. Phenological recording provides an interesting window on this because it is relatively straightforward (and therefore involves a wider range of people than more technically demanding recording), and because it is linked to the climate change discourse (and therefore connected with emotional and moral framings of the situation). This paper describes the rise of popular phenology in the UK and explores these dynamically related aspects of knowledge creation by drawing on accounts in the media and by participants. It concludes that reflexivity and credibility are important aspects of both personal and interpersonal meaning-making, and suggests that attention to both subjective integration of data, and the scale of local cultures of knowledge, are important in understanding the potential for connecting networks of citizen science. Phenology therefore appears to have a particular role to play in public understanding of climate change, which extends beyond the merely extractive collection of data to a more deeply integrated connection between observation and meaning.  相似文献