Uncertainties in probability of occurrence of strong earthquakes for fault sources in the Central Apennines,Italy   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Aybige Akinci  David Perkins  Anna Maria Lombardi  Roberto Basili 《Journal of Seismology》2010,14(1):95-117

Using the characteristic earthquake model, we calculate the probability of occurrence of earthquakes M _w > 5.5 for individual fault sources in the Central Apennines for the 30-year period (2007–2037). We show the effect of time-dependent and time-independent occurrence (Brownian passage time (BPT) and Poisson) models together with uncertain slip rates and uncertain maximum magnitudes and, hence, uncertain recurrence times. In order to reduce the large prior geological slip rate uncertainty distribution for most faults, we obtain a posterior slip rate uncertainty distribution using a likelihood function obtained from regional historical seismicity. We assess the uncertainty of maximum magnitude by assuming that the uncertainty in fault width and length are described by a normal distribution with standard deviation equal to ±20% of the mean values. We then estimate the uncertainties of the 30-year probability of occurrence of a characteristic event using a Monte Carlo procedure. Uncertainty on each parameter is represented by the 16th and the 84th percentiles of simulated values. These percentiles bound the range that has a 68% probability of including the real value of the parameter. We do these both for the Poisson case and for the BPT case by varying the aperiodicity parameter (α value) using the values 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7. The Bayesian posterior slip rate uncertainties typically differ by a factor of about 2 from the 16th to the 84th percentile. Occurrence probabilities for the next 30 years at the 84th percentile typically range from 1% to 2% for faults where the Poisson model dominates and from 2% to 21% where one of the BPT models dominates. The uncertainty in occurrence probability under the time-dependent hypothesis is very large, when measured by the ratio of the 84th to the 16th percentile, frequently being as much as two orders of magnitude. On the other hand, when measured by standard deviation, these standard deviations range from 2% to 6% for those faults whose elapsed time since previous event is large, but always 2% or less for faults with relatively recent previous occurrence, because the probability of occurrence is always small.  相似文献   

New marine ΔR values for Arctic Canada   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Roy D. Coulthard  Mark F.A. Furze  Anna J. Pieńkowski  F. Chantel Nixon  John H. England 《Quaternary Geochronology》2010,5(4):419-434

For more than four decades, the reporting of ¹⁴C dates on marine molluscs from Arctic Canada has been notable for the lack of consistently applied marine reservoir corrections. We propose that the common approach of reporting Canadian Arctic marine ¹⁴C dates using presumed time-invariant reservoir corrections be abandoned in favour of calibration of ¹⁴C dates, using the current standard protocol. This approach best facilitates inter- and intra-regional correlation, and correlation with other geochronometers. In order to enable the consistent calibration of marine ¹⁴C dates from Arctic Canada, we analysed a ¹⁴C database of 108 marine mollusc samples collected live between 1894 and 1956, and determined regional reservoir offset values (ΔR) for eight oceanographically distinct regions. The following new ΔR values should be used for ¹⁴C calibration: NW Canadian Arctic Archipelago, 335 ± 85 yrs; Foxe Basin, 310 ± 90 yrs; NE Baffin Island, 220 ± 20 yrs; SE Baffin Island, 150 ± 60 yrs; Hudson Strait, 65 ± 60 yrs; Ungava Bay, 145 ± 95 yrs; Hudson Bay, 110 ± 65 yrs; and James Bay, 365 ± 115 yrs.  相似文献   

Stable Isotopes Reveal Complex Changes in Trophic Relationships Following Nutrient Addition in a Coastal Marine Ecosystem   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Anna R. Armitage  James W. Fourqurean 《Estuaries and Coasts》2009,32(6):1152-1164

Complex links between the top-down and bottom-up forces that structure communities can be disrupted by anthropogenic alterations of natural habitats. We used relative abundance and stable isotopes to examine changes in epifaunal food webs in seagrass (Thalassia testudinum) beds following 6 months of experimental nutrient addition at two sites in Florida Bay (USA) with different ambient fertility. At a eutrophic site, nutrient addition did not strongly affect food web structure, but at a nutrient-poor site, enrichment increased the abundances of crustacean epiphyte grazers, and the diets of these grazers became more varied. Benthic grazers did not change in abundance but shifted their diet away from green macroalgae + associated epiphytes and towards an opportunistic seagrass (Halodule wrightii) that occurred only in nutrient addition treatments. Benthic predators did not change in abundance, but their diets were more varied in enriched plots. Food chain length was short and unaffected by site or nutrient treatment, but increased food web complexity in enriched plots was suggested by increasingly mixed diets. Strong bottom-up modifications of food web structure in the nutrient-limited site and the limited top-down influences of grazers on seagrass epiphyte biomass suggest that, in this system, the bottom-up role of nutrient enrichment can have substantial impacts on community structure, trophic relationships, and, ultimately, the productivity values of the ecosystem.  相似文献   

Seismic risk mitigation technique for art objects: experimental evaluation and numerical modelling of double concave curved surface sliders     

Luisa Berto  Tommaso Favaretto  Anna Saetta 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2013,11(5):1817-1840

The opportunity and the advantages of applying base isolation technologies developed for civil structures to small objects are investigated and some considerations related to the scale effects are discussed. A series of experimental tests carried out at SRMD facility in San Diego are presented with the aim to investigate the dynamic response of a system designed to simulate a sculpture isolated by means of Double Concave Curved Surface Sliders. Such devices are specifically re-designed to fit the peculiar situation of light weight objects. In particular the samples used in the experimentation are designed with geometric and inertia characteristics fit for representing the Michelangelo’s sculptures exposed at the “Galleria dell’Accademia” in Florence, Italy. Finally, the main aspects concerning the numerical simulation of the seismic response of the proposed isolated system are discussed, also to investigate the efficiency of the existing numerical models, which are developed for traditional devices, when they are applied on such small and particular objects. The results of the experimental/numerical campaign show a general efficiency of the isolation system in terms of limiting the transferred action. Further study is needed to understand more clearly some local unexpected phenomena emerged from the experimental tests.  相似文献   

Application of first-arrival tomography to characterize a quick clay landslide site in Southwest Sweden     

Anna Adamczyk  Michał Malinowski  Alireza Malehmir 《Acta Geophysica》2013,61(5):1057-1073

First-arrival traveltime tomography was applied to high-resolution seismic data acquired over a known quick-clay landslide scar near the Göta River in southwest Sweden in order to reveal the geometry and physical properties of clay-related normally consolidated sediments. Investigated area proved to be a challenging environment for tomographic imaging because of large P-wave velocity variations, ranging from 500 to 6000 m/s, and relatively steeply-dipping bedrock. Despite these challenges, P-wave velocity models were obtained down to ca. 150 m for two key 2D seismic profiles (each about 500-m long) intersecting over the landslide scar. The models portrait the sandwich-like structure of marine clays and coarse-grained consolidated sediments, but the estimated resolution (20 m) is too small to distinguish thin layers within this structure. Modelled velocity structures match well the results of reflection seismic processing and resistivity tomography available along the same profiles.  相似文献   

The price for subway access: spatial econometric modelling of office rental rates in London     

Katarzyna Kopczewska  Anna Lewandowska 《Urban geography》2013,34(10):1528-1554

ABSTRACT

The relative location of commercial properties as the distance to the metro station as well as its absolute location as the address in the Central Business District (CBD) is expected to influence its valuation. We apply the advanced spatial econometric methodology, based on micro geo-located data, to the office rental transaction data from London in 2015. We use different spatial information on the local and global neighbourhood in order to estimate the spatial hedonic valuation model and test the strength of spatial spillovers and location effects on office fees. For offices in London in 2015, geographical factors may raise the price by 50%, as every next 100 m to the metro cost an additional 0.7 ? per ft² per year and the CBD location raises the cost for ca. 20 ? per ft² per year.  相似文献   

Correction to: Spatio-temporal variability of atmospheric rivers and associated atmospheric parameters in the Euro-Atlantic region     

Thandlam  Venugopal  Rutgersson  Anna  Sahlee  Erik 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2022,147(1-2):35-35

Theoretical and Applied Climatology -  相似文献   

Spatio-temporal variability of atmospheric rivers and associated atmospheric parameters in the Euro-Atlantic region     

Thandlam  Venugopal  Rutgersson  Anna  Sahlee  Erik 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2022,147(1-2):13-33

We study the spatio-temporal variability of Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) and associated integrated water vapor and atmospheric parameters over the Euro-Atlantic region using long-term reanalysis datasets. Winds, temperature, and specific humidity at different pressure levels during 1979–2018 are used to study the water vapor transport integrated between 1000 and 300 hPa (IVT300) in mapping ARs. The intensity of ARs in the North Atlantic has been increasing in recent times (2009–2018) with large decadal variability and poleward shift (~ 5° towards the North) in landfall during 1999–2018. Though different reanalysis datasets show similar spatial patterns of IVT300 in mapping ARs, bias in specific humidity and wind components led to IVT300 mean bias of 50 kg m⁻¹ s⁻¹ in different reanalysis products compared to ERA5. The magnitude of winds and specific humidity in the lower atmosphere (below 750 hPa) dominates the total column water vapor and intensity of ARs in the North Atlantic. Reanalysis datasets in the central North Atlantic show an IVT300 standard deviation of 200 kg m⁻¹ s⁻¹ which is around 33% of the ARs climatology (~ 600 kg m⁻¹ s⁻¹). Though ARs have a higher frequency of landfalling over Western Europe in winter half-year, the intensity of IVT300 in winter ARs is 3% lower than the annual mean. The lower frequency of ARs in the summer half-year shows 3% higher IVT300 than the annual mean. While ARs in the North Atlantic show a strong decadal change in frequency and path, the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Scandinavian blocking on the location of landfall of ARs are significant. Furthermore, there is a strong latitudinal dependence of the source of moisture flux in the open ocean, contributing to the formation and strengthening ARs.

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Weakening climatic signal since mid-20th century in European larch tree-ring chronologies at different altitudes from the Adamello-Presanella Massif (Italian Alps)     

Anna Coppola  Giovanni Leonelli  Maria Cristina Salvatore  Manuela Pelfini  Carlo Baroni 《Quaternary Research》2012,77(3):344-354

Tree rings from temperature-limited environments are highly sensitive climate proxies, widely used to reconstruct past climate parameters for periods prior to the availability of instrumental data and to analyse the effect of recent global warming on tree growth. An analysis of the climatic signal in five high-elevation tree-ring width chronologies of European larch (Larix decidua Mill.) from the tops of five different glacial valleys in the Italian Central Alps revealed that they contain a strong summer-temperature signal and that tree-ring growth is especially influenced by June temperatures. However, a moving correlation function analysis revealed a recent loss of the June temperature signal in the tree-ring chronologies. This signal reduction primarily involves the two lowest-altitude chronologies. It is probable that the observed increasing importance of late-summer temperature for tree-ring growth over the past 50 yr is an effect of the lengthening growing season and of the variations in the climate/tree-ring relationship over time. All the chronologies considered, especially those at the highest altitudes, show an increasing negative influence of June precipitation on tree-ring growth. The climatic signal recorded in tree-ring chronologies from the Italian Central Alps varies over time and is also differentially influenced by climatic parameters according to site elevation.  相似文献   

The sources and budget for dissolved sulfate in a fractured carbonate aquifer,southern Sacramento Mountains,New Mexico,USA     

Anna Szynkiewicz  B. Talon Newton  Stacy S. Timmons  David M. Borrok 《Applied Geochemistry》2012

Climate change in the SW USA is likely to involve drier conditions and higher surface temperatures. In order to better understand the evolution of water chemistry and the sources of aqueous SO₄ in these semi-arid settings, chemical and S isotope compositions were determined of springs, groundwater, and bedrock associated with a Permian fractured carbonate aquifer located in the southern Sacramento Mountains, New Mexico, USA. The results suggest that the evolution of water chemistry in the semi-arid carbonate aquifer is mainly controlled by dedolomitization of bedrock, which was magnified by increasing temperature and increasing dissolution of gypsum/anhydrite along the groundwater flow path. The δ³⁴S of dissolved SO₄ in spring and groundwater samples varied from +9.0‰ to +12.8‰, reflecting the mixing of SO₄ from the dissolution of Permian gypsum/anhydrite (+12.3‰ to +13.4‰) and oxidation of sulfide minerals (−24.5‰ to −4.2‰). According to S isotope mass balance constraints, the contribution of sulfide-derived SO₄ was considerable in the High Mountain recharge areas, accounting for up to ∼10% of the total SO₄ load. However, sulfide weathering decreased in importance in the lower reaches of the watershed. A smaller SO₄ input of ∼2–4% was contributed by atmospheric wet deposition. This study implies that the δ³⁴S variation of SO₄ in semi-arid environments can be complex, but that S isotopes can be used to distinguish among the different sources of weathering. Here it was found that H₂SO₄ dissolution due to sulfide oxidation contributes up to 5% of the total carbonate weathering budget, while most of the SO₄ is released from bedrock sources during dedolomitization.  相似文献