Observation-based blended projections from ensembles of regional climate models     

Esther Salazar  Dorit Hammerling  Xia Wang  Bruno Sansó  Andrew O. Finley  Linda O. Mearns 《Climatic change》2016,138(1-2):55-69

We consider the problem of projecting future climate from ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) simulations using results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). To this end, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian space-time model that quantifies the discrepancies between different members of an ensemble of RCMs corresponding to present day conditions, and observational records. Discrepancies are then propagated into the future to obtain high resolution blended projections of 21st century climate. In addition to blended projections, the proposed method provides location-dependent comparisons between the different simulations by estimating the different modes of spatial variability, and using the climate model-specific coefficients of the spatial factors for comparisons. The approach has the flexibility to provide projections at customizable scales of potential interest to stakeholders while accounting for the uncertainties associated with projections at these scales based on a comprehensive statistical framework. We demonstrate the methodology with simulations from the Weather Research & Forecasting regional model (WRF) using three different boundary conditions. We use simulations for two time periods: current climate conditions, covering 1971 to 2000, and future climate conditions under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario, covering 2041 to 2070. We investigate and project yearly mean summer and winter temperatures for a domain in the South West of the United States.  相似文献   

Multispecies dendroclimatic reconstructions of summer temperature in the European Alps enhanced by trees highly sensitive to temperature     

Giovanni Leonelli  Anna Coppola  Carlo Baroni  Maria Cristina Salvatore  Maurizio Maugeri  Michele Brunetti  Manuela Pelfini 《Climatic change》2016,137(1-2):275-291

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Chemical and isotopic interpretation of major ion compositions from precipitation: a one-year temporal monitoring study in Wrocław,SW Poland     

M. Ciężka  M. Modelska  M. Górka  A. Trojanowska-Olichwer  D. Widory 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2016,73(1):61-80

The chemical compositions (Na⁺, NH₄ ⁺, K⁺, Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺, Cl^?, NO₂ ^?, NO₃ ^?, SO₄ ^2?, HCO₃ ^?) of wet precipitation and nitrogen isotope compositions δ¹⁵N(NH₄ ⁺) were studied from January to December 2010 in Wroc?aw (SW Poland). Results of a principle component analysis show that 82 % of the data variability can be explained by three main factors: 1) F1 (40 %) observed during vegetative season (electrical conductivity, HCO₃ ^?, NO₃ ^?, NO₂ ^?, NH₄ ⁺ and SO₄ ^2?), mainly controlling rainwater mineralization; 2) F2 (26 %) observed during vegetative and heating seasons (K⁺, Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺), probably representing a combination of two processes: anthropogenic dusts and fertilizers application in agricultural fields, and 3) F3 (16 %) reported mainly during heating season (Na⁺ and Cl^?) probably indicating the influence of marine aerosols. Variations of δ¹⁵N(NH₄ ⁺) from ?11.5 to 18.5?‰ identify three main pathways for the formation of NH₄ ⁺: 1) equilibrium fractionation between NH₃ and NH₄ ⁺; 2) kinetic exchange between NH₃ and NH₄ ⁺; 3) NH₄ ⁺ exchange between atmospheric salts particles and precipitation. The coupled chemical/statistical analysis and δ¹⁵N(NH₄ ⁺) approach shows that while fossil fuels burning is the main source of NH₄ ⁺ in precipitation during the heating season, during the vegetative season NH₄ ⁺ originates from local sewage irrigation fields in Osobowice or agricultural fertilizers.  相似文献   

Root‐related rhodochrosite and concretionary siderite formation in oxygen‐deficient conditions induced by a ground‐water table rise          下载免费PDF全文

Maciej J. Bojanowski  Elżbieta Jaroszewicz  Adrijan Košir  Maciej Łoziński  Leszek Marynowski  Anna Wysocka  Arkadiusz Derkowski 《Sedimentology》2016,63(3):523-551

Sedimentological, mineralogical, stable carbon and oxygen isotope determinations and biomarker analyses were performed on siderite concretions occurring in terrestrial silts to understand their formation and to characterize the sedimentary and diagenetic conditions favouring their growth. High δ¹³C values (6·4‰ on average) indicate that siderite precipitated in an anoxic environment where bacterial methanogenesis operated. The development of anoxic conditions during shallow burial was induced by a change in sedimentary environment from flood plain to swamp, related to a rise of the ground‐water table. Large amounts of decaying plant debris led to efficient oxygen consumption within the pore‐water in the peat. Oxygen depletion, in combination with a decrease in sedimentation rate, promoted anoxic diagenetic conditions under the swamp and favoured abundant siderite precipitation. This shows how a change in sedimentary conditions can have a profound impact on the early‐diagenetic environment and carbonate authigenesis. The concretions contain numerous rhizoliths; they are cemented with calcium‐rhodochrosite, a feature which has not been reported before. The rhodochrosite cement has negative δ¹³C values (?16·5‰ on average) and precipitated in suboxic conditions due to microbial degradation of roots coupled to manganese reduction. The exceptional preservation of the epidermis/exodermis and xylem vessels of former root tissues indicates that the rhodochrosite formed shortly after the death of a root in water‐logged sediments. Rhodochrosite precipitated during the initial stages of concretionary growth in suboxic microenvironments within roots, while siderite cementation occurred simultaneously around them in anoxic conditions. These suboxic microenvironments developed because oxygen was transported from the overlying oxygenated soil into sediments saturated with anoxic water via roots acting as permeable conduits. This model explains how separate generations of carbonate cements having different mineralogy and isotopic compositions, which would conventionally be regarded as cements precipitated sequentially in different diagenetic zones during gradual burial, can form simultaneously in shallow burial settings where strong redox gradients exist around vertically oriented permeable root structures.  相似文献   

Late‐glacial to Holocene depositional architecture of the Ombrone palaeovalley system (Southern Tuscany,Italy): Sea‐level,climate and local control in valley‐fill variability          下载免费PDF全文

Anna Breda  Alessandro Amorosi  Veronica Rossi  Fabio Fusco 《Sedimentology》2016,63(5):1124-1148

The Ombrone palaeovalley was incised during the last glacial sea‐level fall and was infilled during the subsequent Late‐glacial to Holocene transgression. A detailed sedimentological and stratigraphic study of two cores along the palaeovalley axis led to reconstruction of the post‐Last Glacial Maximum valley‐fill history. Stratigraphic correlations show remarkable similarity in the Late‐glacial to early‐Holocene succession, but discrepancy in the Holocene portion of the valley fill. Above the palaeovalley floor, about 60 m below sea‐level, Late‐glacial sedimentation is recorded by an unusually thick alluvial succession dated back to ca 18 cal kyr bp . The Holocene onset was followed by the retrogradational shift from alluvial to coastal facies. In seaward core OM1, the transition from inner to outer estuarine environments marks the maximum deepening of the system. By comparison, in landward core OM2, the emplacement of estuarine conditions was interrupted by renewed continental sedimentation. Swamp to lacustrine facies, stratigraphically equivalent to the fully estuarine facies of core OM1, represent the proximal expression of the maximum flooding zone. This succession reflects location in a confined segment of the valley, just landward of the confluence with a tributary valley. It is likely that sudden sediment input from the tributary produced a topographic threshold, damming the main valley course and isolating its landward segment from the sea. The seaward portion of the Ombrone palaeovalley presents the typical estuarine backfilling succession of allogenically controlled incised valleys. In contrast, in the landward portion of the system, local dynamics completely overwhelmed the sea‐level signal, following marine ingression. This study highlights the complexity of palaeovalley systems, where local morphologies, changes in catchment areas, drainage systems and tributary valleys may produce facies patterns significantly different from the general stratigraphic organization depicted by traditional sequence‐stratigraphic models.  相似文献   

Climate change and human impact in a sensitive ecosystem: the Holocene environment of the Northwest Icelandic highland margin   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Sigrún D. Eddudóttir  Egill Erlendsson  Leone Tinganelli  Guðrún Gísladóttir 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2016,45(4):715-728

Complex interactions of climate and volcanic activity have shaped the environment of Iceland during the Holocene. Palaeoecological records from Iceland offer a unique look at a Holocene environment that was uninhabited by humans and free of mammal herbivores until about AD 870. We present a new reconstruction of Holocene vegetation and landscape dynamics from a small lake, Barðalækjartjörn, located near the highland margin in Northwest Iceland. A multi‐proxy approach was used to reconstruct vegetation based on pollen and plant macrofossil analysis and landscape stability based on lithological proxies. The record covers the period c. 10 300–200 cal. a BP. For the first two millennia aeolian processes probably played a part in vegetation development. This period is characterized by high input of minerogenic material into the lake and a vegetation assemblage in which plants tolerant of aeolian deposition are prominent. Betula pubescens woodland reached a maximum between c. 7400 and 6500 cal. a BP. Betula nana‐dominated dwarf shrub heath replaced woodland after c. 4000 cal. a BP, following the onset of Neoglaciation. Land use following human settlement caused an environmental shift at the highland margin. Betula pubescens probably disappeared from the vicinity of the lake soon thereafter. Large‐scale soil erosion began at c. 1000 cal. a BP in the wake of human activities, such as introduction of grazing livestock and woodcutting. This study offers an important long‐term perspective of the development of the highland ecosystem under both wholly natural and human‐influenced conditions.  相似文献   

Some Open Issues on Rockfall Hazard Analysis in Fractured Rock Mass: Problems and Prospects     

Anna Maria Ferrero  Maria Rita Migliazza  Marina Pirulli  Gessica Umili 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2016,49(9):3615-3629

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Analysis of extreme rainfall in the Ebre Observatory (Spain)     

Núria Pérez-Zanón  M. Carmen Casas-Castillo  Raúl Rodríguez-Solà  Juan Carlos Peña  Anna Rius  J. Germán Solé  Ángel Redaño 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2016,124(3-4):935-944

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The Westerly Index as complementary indicator of the North Atlantic oscillation in explaining drought variability across Europe   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano  Ricardo García-Herrera  David Barriopedro  Cesar Azorin-Molina  Juan I. López-Moreno  Natalia Martín-Hernández  Miquel Tomás-Burguera  Luis Gimeno  Raquel Nieto 《Climate Dynamics》2016,47(3-4):845-863

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Abrupt transitions in the NAO control of explosive North Atlantic cyclone development     

Iñigo Gómara  Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca  Pablo Zurita-Gotor  Sven Ulbrich  Joaquim G. Pinto 《Climate Dynamics》2016,47(9-10):3091-3111

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