An attempt to dendroclimatic reconstruction of winter temperature based on multispecies tree-ring widths and extreme years chronologies (example of Upper Silesia, Southern Poland)     

Magdalena Opała  Maciej J. Mendecki 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,115(1-2):73-89

This study aims at investigating pre-instrumental tree-ring based winter thermal conditions from Upper Silesia, southern Poland. The Scots pine, pedunculate oak and sessile oak ring widths and the extreme index were used to reconstruct winter mean temperature back to A.D. 1770. The climate response analysis showed that the pine is the most sensitive to February (0.36) and March (0.41) temperature, the oaks were found to be sensitive to the previous December (0.27) and January (0.23) temperature. It was found out that the combination of temperature sensitive species and an additional extreme index in regression can improve the reconstruction, with an emphasis on more reliable reconstruction of extreme values. The elimination of variance reduction and precise reconstruction of actual values of temperature is possible by scaling. The obtained calibration/verification results suggest that, through the application of the long-term composite chronologies a detailed study of the climate variability in Upper Silesia in past centuries can be provided.  相似文献   

Drivers of mean climate change around the Netherlands derived from CMIP5     

Bart van den Hurk  Geert Jan van Oldenborgh  Geert Lenderink  Wilco Hazeleger  Rein Haarsma  Hylke de Vries 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(5-6):1683-1697

For the construction of regional climate change scenarios spanning a relevant fraction of the spread in climate model projections, an inventory of major drivers of regional climate change is needed. For the Netherlands, a previous set of regional climate change scenarios was based on the decomposition of local temperature/precipitation changes into components directly linked to the level of global warming, and components related to changes in the regional atmospheric circulation. In this study this decomposition is revisited utilizing the extensive modelling results from the CMIP5 model ensemble in support for the 5th IPCC assessment. Rather than selecting a number of GCMs based on performance metrics or relevant response features, a regression technique was developed to utilize all available model projections. The large number of projections allows a quantification of the separate contributions of emission scenarios, systematic model responses and natural variability to the total likelihood range. Natural variability plays a minor role in modelled differences in the global mean temperature response, but contributes for up to 50 % to the range of mean sea level pressure responses and local precipitation. Using key indicators (“steering variables”) for the temperature and circulation response, the range in local seasonal mean temperature and precipitation responses can be fairly well reproduced.  相似文献   

Evaluation of a global ensemble flood prediction system in Peru     

Konstantinos Bischiniotis  Bart van den Hurk  Ervin Zsoter  Erin Coughlan de Perez  Manolis Grillakis  Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(10):1171-1189

ABSTRACT

Flood early warning systems play a more substantial role in risk mitigation than ever before. Hydrological forecasts, which are an essential part of these systems, are used to trigger action against floods around the world. This research presents an evaluation framework, where the skills of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) are assessed in Peru for the years 2009–2015. Simulated GloFAS discharges are compared against observed ones for 10 river gauges. Forecasts skills are assessed from two perspectives: (i) by calculating verification scores at every river section against simulated discharges and (ii) by comparing the flood signals against reported events. On average, river sections with higher discharges and larger upstream areas perform better. Raw forecasts provide correct flood signals for 82% of the reported floods, but exhibit low verification scores. Post-processing of raw forecasts improves most verification scores, but reduces the percentage of the correctly forecasted reported events to 65%.  相似文献   

Estimation of Hydraulic Conductivity and Its Uncertainty from Grain-Size Data Using GLUE and Artificial Neural Networks   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Bart Rogiers  Dirk Mallants  Okke Batelaan  Matej Gedeon  Marijke Huysmans  Alain Dassargues 《Mathematical Geosciences》2012,44(6):739-763

Various approaches exist to relate saturated hydraulic conductivity (K _s) to grain-size data. Most methods use a single grain-size parameter and hence omit the information encompassed by the entire grain-size distribution. This study compares two data-driven modelling methods??multiple linear regression and artificial neural networks??that use the entire grain-size distribution data as input for K _s prediction. Besides the predictive capacity of the methods, the uncertainty associated with the model predictions is also evaluated, since such information is important for stochastic groundwater flow and contaminant transport modelling. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are combined with a generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach to predict K _s from grain-size data. The resulting GLUE-ANN hydraulic conductivity predictions and associated uncertainty estimates are compared with those obtained from the multiple linear regression models by a leave-one-out cross-validation. The GLUE-ANN ensemble prediction proved to be slightly better than multiple linear regression. The prediction uncertainty, however, was reduced by half an order of magnitude on average, and decreased at most by an order of magnitude. This demonstrates that the proposed method outperforms classical data-driven modelling techniques. Moreover, a comparison with methods from the literature demonstrates the importance of site-specific calibration. The data set used for this purpose originates mainly from unconsolidated sandy sediments of the Neogene aquifer, northern Belgium. The proposed predictive models are developed for 173 grain-size K _s-pairs. Finally, an application with the optimised models is presented for a borehole lacking K _s data.  相似文献   

Groundwater geochemical evolution under the influence of polymetallic deposit in Czarnów (Western Sudetes,SW Poland)     

Agata Mickiewicz  Henryk Marszałek 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(6):464

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Environmental mobility of trace elements present in dusts emitted from Zn–Pb metallurgical processes     

Zdzisław Adamczyk  Katarzyna Nowińska 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(11):956

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Response of microorganisms and enzymes to soil contamination with a mixture of pethoxamid terbuthylazine     

Jadwiga Wyszkowska  Monika Tomkiel  Małgorzata Baćmaga  Agata Borowik  Jan Kucharski 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(18):1285

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Timing of glacier advances and climate in the High Tatra Mountains (Western Carpathians) during the Last Glacial Maximum     

Michał Makos  Jan Dzierżek  Jerzy Nitychoruk  Marek Zreda 《Quaternary Research》2014

During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), long valley glaciers developed on the northern and southern sides of the High Tatra Mountains, Poland and Slovakia. Chlorine-36 exposure dating of moraine boulders suggests two major phases of moraine stabilization, at 26–21 ka (LGM I — maximum) and at 18 ka (LGM II). The dates suggest a significantly earlier maximum advance on the southern side of the range. Reconstructing the geometry of four glaciers in the Sucha Woda, Pańszczyca, Mlynicka and Velicka valleys allowed determining their equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) at 1460, 1460, 1650 and 1700 m asl, respectively. Based on a positive degree-day model, the mass balance and climatic parameter anomaly (temperature and precipitation) has been constrained for LGM I advance. Modeling results indicate slightly different conditions between northern and southern slopes. The N–S ELA gradient finds confirmation in slightly higher temperature (at least 1 °C) or lower precipitation (15%) on the south-facing glaciers during LGM I. The precipitation distribution over the High Tatra Mountains indicates potentially different LGM atmospheric circulation than at the present day, with reduced northwesterly inflow and increased southerly and westerly inflows of moist air masses.  相似文献   

Flood disaster subcultures in The Netherlands: the parishes of Borgharen and Itteren     

Karen Engel  Georg Frerks  Lucia Velotti  Jeroen Warner  Bart Weijs 《Natural Hazards》2014,73(2):859-882

The Netherlands knows a persistent threat of flooding. To adapt to this dangerous reality, the Dutch have cultivated what disaster research literature has labeled ‘disaster subcultures’ or a set of cultural (tangible and intangible) tools to deal with the recurrent hazard. While there is abundant attention for the way the Dutch ‘coastal’ and ‘low-lying’ communities deal with the recurrent threat of (coastal) flooding, less is known about the way the Dutch ‘high-lands’ deal with the yearly threat of (fluvial) flooding. This article presents the findings of an explorative research endeavor (2011–2013) aimed at discerning if the disaster subculture concept has contemporary relevance in the Netherlands, particularly with respect to flooding, and if so, whether applying this lens would reveal more about the nature of existing disaster subcultures. Because less is known about the Dutch ‘high-lands,’ we chose to look into the existence and attributes of disaster subcultures in the parishes Borgharen and Itteren, which experience a systematic threat of flooding. Our findings suggest that the disaster subculture lens is valuable as it enables the empirical appreciation of disaster subcultures, even in a small country like the Netherlands, and it unveiled elements of these neighboring parishes’ flood reality that otherwise might have gone unnoticed and that seem central to understanding these two parishes’ levels of vulnerability and resilience. It is our contention that the concept ‘disaster subculture’ makes a greater understanding possible of the cultural context from which vulnerability and resilience to specific and recurrent threats emerge.  相似文献   

A Temporal Variant‐Invariant Validation Approach for Agent‐based Models of Landscape Dynamics     

Christopher Bone  Bart Johnson  Max Nielsen‐Pincus  Eric Sproles  John Bolte 《Transactions in GIS》2014,18(2):161-182

Agent‐based modeling provides a means for addressing the way human and natural systems interact to change landscapes over time. Until recently, evaluation of simulation models has focused on map comparison techniques that evaluate the degree to which predictions match real‐world observations. However, methods that change the focus of evaluation from patterns to processes have begun to surface; that is, rather than asking if a model simulates a correct pattern, models are evaluated on their ability to simulate a process of interest. We build on an existing agent‐based modeling validation method in order to present a temporal variant‐invariant analysis (TVIA). The enhanced method, which focuses on analyzing the uncertainty in simulation results, examines the degree to which outcomes from multiple model runs match some reference to how land use parcels make the transition from one land use class to another over time. We apply TVIA to results from an agent‐based model that simulates the relationships between landowner decisions and wildfire risk in the wildland‐urban interface of the southern Willamette Valley, Oregon, USA. The TVIA approach demonstrates a novel ability to examine uncertainty across time to provide an understanding of how the model emulates the system of interest.  相似文献