An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Till Kuhlbrodt  Stefan Rahmstorf  Kirsten Zickfeld  Frode Bendiksen Vikebø  Svein Sundby  Matthias Hofmann  Peter Michael Link  Alberte Bondeau  Wolfgang Cramer  Carlo Jaeger 《Climatic change》2009,96(4):489-537

This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO₂ concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO₂ emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION.  相似文献   

Connection between ozone concentration and atmosphere circulation at peak Moussala     

Peter Nojarov  Peter Ivanov  Ivo Kalapov  Ilia Penev  Mirolujba Drenska 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2009,98(1-2):201-208

Connection between ozone concentration and atmosphere circulation is investigated based on measurements at BEO station, peak Moussala (2,925 m a.s.l.), for the period 09 August 2006 to 29 January 2008. Ozone concentration data are collected with UV-analyzer “Environnement O₃ 42” and meteo data with weather station “Vaisala”. There are measurements of ⁷Be. Data from NOAA HYSPLIT model for particle trajectories are also used. Eight wind directions and three ranges of wind velocities are employed in the analysis. A comparison of ozone concentrations in upward and downward air transport according to HYSPLIT model is made. The number of cases with ozone concentration above 63 ppb has been counted. Mann–Whitney nonparametric test is employed as a basic statistical method. Correlation between atmosphere pressure and tropospheric ozone content is made. The same is done for ⁷Be and ozone. The main conclusion is that there is not any local or regional pollution effect detectable at peak Moussala, but most of the ozone measured is due to emissions of hydrocarbons and NO _x over a larger region. There could be some regional sources of ozone building substances in southwest direction from peak Moussala. Air transported from the north quarter has higher ozone concentrations compared to the south quarter. In vertical direction, upward transport of air masses shows higher values of ozone concentration. Higher wind velocity is associated with low ozone concentrations at peak Moussala. The annual course of ozone concentration has summer maximum and winter minimum. There is right connection between air pressure and ozone concentration. The same is valid for the correlation between ⁷Be and ozone. Diurnal ozone course shows daytime maximum in winter and nighttime maximum in summer.  相似文献   

Opacity effects on the polarization of line emissions in astrophysical plasmas     

Peter Hakel  Roberto C. Mancini 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2009,322(1-4):113-116

Polarization-based line spectroscopy is a valuable tool in determining the characteristics of electron distribution functions in anisotropic plasmas. For instance, directional electrons can unevenly populate the magnetic sublevels of atomic energy levels resulting in partial polarization of the emitted spectral lines. The large dimensions of astrophysical sources raise the possibility of non-negligible self-absorption effects on spectral line properties. Alternatively, the high densities characteristic of laser-produced laboratory plasmas can also result in substantial optical depth values. We present a modeling study of He-like Fe line emissions in which we investigate the effects of radiation transport on the polarization of selected spectral lines under corona conditions.  相似文献   

On the homeostasis and bistability on a Gaian planet     

Peter Nørtoft Nielsen 《Planetary and Space Science》2009,57(4):491-497

Geochemical disequilibrium of Earth's atmosphere is a sign of life. The fact that Earth's atmosphere is just right for life led Lovelock to propose the Gaia hypothesis: life itself regulates the environment on planetary scale in order to maintain habitability. This hypothesis is supported by the so-called Daisyworld parable, which illustrates a possible mechanism for such a self regulation. Here we revisit Daisyworld and challenge some of its conclusions from a closer examination of the model. We find that even within this simple, conceptual model of a Gaian planet there are regimes where climate is less homeostatic than on a dead planet. Furthermore, in other regimes, bistability between two climate states is found to exist due to the presence of life. This indicates that even if the Gaian stability might describe life in some planetary conditions, it need not be generic to all inhabited planets.  相似文献   

Post-starburst galaxies: more than just an interesting curiosity     

Vivienne Wild  C. Jakob Walcher  Peter H. Johansson  Laurence Tresse  Stéphane Charlot  Agnieszka Pollo  Olivier Le Fèvre  Loic de Ravel 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,395(1):144-159

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Monte Carlo Markov Chain parameter estimation in semi-analytic models of galaxy formation     

Bruno M. B. Henriques  Peter A. Thomas  Seb Oliver  Isaac Roseboom 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,396(1):535-547

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Determining a tilt in Titan’s north-south albedo asymmetry from Cassini images     

Michael T. Roman  Robert A. West  Peter J. Gierasch  Conor A. Nixon 《Icarus》2009,203(1):242-249

Analysis of Titan’s hemispheric brightness asymmetry from mapped Cassini images reveals an axis of symmetry that is tilted with respect to the rotational axis of the solid body. Twenty images taken from 2004 through 2007 show a mean axial offset of 3.8 ± 0.9° relative to the solid body’s pole, directed 79 ± 24° to the west of the sub-solar longitude. These values are consistent with recent measurements of an implied atmospheric spin axis determined from isothermal mapping by [Achterberg, R.K., Conrath, B.J., Gierasch, P.J., Flasar, F.M., Nixon, C.A., 2008. Icarus 197, 549-555].  相似文献   

The rotation of Janus and Epimetheus     

Matthew S. Tiscareno  Peter C. Thomas 《Icarus》2009,204(1):254-261

Epimetheus, a small moon of Saturn, has a rotational libration (an oscillation about synchronous rotation) of 5.9°±1.2°, placing Epimetheus in the company of Earth’s Moon and Mars’ Phobos as the only natural satellites for which forced rotational libration has been detected. The forced libration is caused by the satellite’s slightly eccentric orbit and non-spherical shape.Detection of a moon’s forced libration allows us to probe its interior by comparing the measured amplitude to that predicted by a shape model assuming constant density. A discrepancy between the two would indicate internal density asymmetries. For Epimetheus, the uncertainties in the shape model are large enough to account for the measured libration amplitude. For Janus, on the other hand, although we cannot rule out synchronous rotation, a permanent offset of several degrees between Janus’ minimum moment of inertia (long axis) and the equilibrium sub-Saturn point may indicate that Janus does have modest internal density asymmetries.The rotation states of Janus and Epimetheus experience a perturbation every 4 years, as the two moons “swap” orbits. The sudden change in the orbital periods produces a free libration about synchronous rotation that is subsequently damped by internal friction. We calculate that this free libration is small in amplitude (<0.1°) and decays quickly (a few weeks, at most), and is thus below the current limits for detection using Cassini images.  相似文献   

Grooves on small saturnian satellites and other objects: Characteristics and significance     

Sarah J. Morrison  Peter C. Thomas  Matthew S. Tiscareno  Joseph A. Burns  Joseph Veverka 《Icarus》2009,204(1):262-270

High-resolution images from the Cassini Imaging Science Subsystem (ISS) show parallel sets of grooves on Epimetheus and Pandora. Grooves have previously been observed on other satellites and asteroids, including Phobos, Gaspra, Ida, Eros, and minor occurrences on Phoebe. Sets of parallel grooves are so far observed only on satellites known or likely to be subject to significant tidal stresses, such as forced librations. Grooves on asteroids and on satellites not subject to significant forced librations occur in more globally disorganized patterns that may reflect impacts, varying internal structures, or even thermal stresses. The patterns and individual morphologies of grooves on the tidally-affected satellites suggest fracturing in weak materials due to tidal stresses and forced librations.  相似文献   

The velocity dispersion and mass-to-light ratio of the remote halo globular cluster NGC 2419     

H. Baumgardt  P. Côté  M. Hilker  M. Rejkuba  S. Mieske  S. G. Djorgovski  Peter Stetson 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,396(4):2051-2060

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