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81.
82.
There is global interest in providing scientific advice on optimal harvesting of all commercially exploited fish stocks. Nevertheless, many commercially important stocks lack analytical assessments. Therefore, we evaluate a data-moderate stock assessment method: the stochastic surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT). The method was applied to two Namibian stocks: (i) the data-rich Cape monkfish Lophius vomerinus, where results are compared to a new data-rich assessment using a state–space assessment model (SAM); and (ii) the data-moderate west coast sole Austroglossus microlepis, which is an important bycatch species in the Cape monkfish fishery, but currently unassessed. The information available to the data-moderate assessment is total commercial catch, commercial catch per unit effort (CPUE), and survey CPUE. SPiCT and SAM gave largely consistent estimates of relative fishing mortality (F/FMSY) and relative exploitable biomass (B/BMSY) for the Cape monkfish stock, although with some discrepancies. Differences in the biomass estimates between the two assessments suggest that further investigation is required to understand the cause, and that some caution is necessary when considering the biomass of the stock. SPiCT shows that the west coast sole may be overexploited, although the confidence bounds were too wide for a firm conclusion. Similarity in the estimates of F/FMSY for Cape monkfish in recent years, using SPiCT relative to SAM, likewise indicates the suitability of SPiCT for managing west coast sole.  相似文献   
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84.
Tidal marsh exchange studies are relatively simple tools to investigate the interaction between tidal marshes and estuaries. They have mostly been confined to only a few elements and to saltwater or brackish systems. This study presents mass-balance results of an integrated one year campaign in a freshwater tidal marsh along the Scheldt estuary (Belgium), covering oxygen, nutrients (N, P and Si), carbon, chlorophyll, suspended matter, chloride and sulfate. The role of seepage from the marsh was also investigated. A ranking between the parameters revealed that oxygenation was the strongest effect of the marsh on the estuarine water. Particulate parameters showed overall import. Export of dissolved silica (DSi) was more important than exchange of any other nutrient form. Export of DSi and import of total dissolved nitrogen (DIN) nevertheless contributed about equally to the increase of the Si:N ratio in the seepage water. The marsh had a counteracting effect on the long term trend of nutrient ratios in the estuary.  相似文献   
85.
Snow albedo is known to be crucial for heat exchange at high latitudes and high altitudes, and is also an important parameter in General Circulation Models (GCMs) because of its strong positive feedback properties. In this study, seven GCM snow albedo schemes and a multiple linear regression model were intercompared and validated against 59 years of in situ data from Svalbard, the French Alps and six stations in the former Soviet Union. For each site, the significant meteorological parameters for modeling the snow albedo were identified by constructing the 95% confidence intervals. The significant parameters were found to be: temperature, snow depth, positive degree day and a dummy of snow depth, and the multiple linear regression model was constructed to include these. Overall, the intercomparison showed that the modeled snow albedo varied more than the observed albedo for all models, and that the albedo was often underestimated. In addition, for several of the models, the snow albedo decreased at a faster rate or by a greater magnitude during the winter snow metamorphosis than the observed albedo. Both the temperature dependent schemes and the prognostic schemes showed shortcomings.  相似文献   
86.
Array analysis is performed on surface waves recorded in the French Alps using a small‐aperture (25 km) temporary array of six broad‐band stations. The analysis shows that both Rayleigh and Love waves deviate relative to the great‐circle path. The deviations are particularly strong, up to 30°, between 20 and 40 s period. To interpret these observations, we first study the effect of large‐scale structures using ray tracing in a smooth, laterally heterogeneous model of the Earth. Second, we evaluate the local effect by considering a model for the French Alps including strong lateral heterogeneities around the array that were not taken into account in the ray tracing. By combining these two possible causes of the observed deviations, we propose an explanation for the general trend in the observed deviations. Finally, we show that by taking into account azimuthal deviations, phase velocities measured at a regional scale can be significantly improved.  相似文献   
87.
Glass composition-based correlations of volcanic ash (tephra) traditionally rely on extensive manual plotting. Many previous statistical methods for testing correlations are limited by using geochemical means, masking diagnostic variability. We suggest that machine learning classifiers can expedite correlation, quickly narrowing the list of likely candidates using well-trained models. Eruptives from Alaska's Aleutian Arc-Alaska Peninsula and Wrangell volcanic field were used as a test environment for 11 supervised classification algorithms, trained on nearly 2000 electron probe microanalysis measurements of glass major oxides, representing 10 volcanic sources. Artificial neural networks and random forests were consistently among the top-performing learners (accuracy and kappa > 0.96). Their combination as an average ensemble effectively improves their performance. Using this combined model on tephras from Eklutna Lake, south-central Alaska, showed that predictions match traditional methods and can speed correlation. Although classifiers are useful tools, they should aid expert analysis, not replace it. The Eklutna Lake tephras are mostly from Redoubt Volcano. Besides tephras from known Holocene-active sources, Holocene tephra geochemically consistent with Pleistocene Emmons Lake Volcanic Center (Dawson tephra), but from a yet unknown source, is evident. These tephras are mostly anchored by a highly resolved varved chronology and represent new important regional stratigraphic markers.  相似文献   
88.
We have combined tensor radio magnetotelluric- (RMT, 15–250 kHz) and controlled source tensor magnetotelluric (CSTMT, 1–12 kHz) data for the mapping of aquifers in gravel formations lying in between crystalline bedrock and clay rich sediments in the Heby area some 40 km west of Uppsala in Sweden. The estimated transfer functions, the impedance tensor and the tipper vector generally satisfy 1D or 2D necessary conditions except for the lowest CSTMT frequencies where near field effects become more dominant.The data measured from 8 profiles were inverted with the Rebocc code of Siripunvaraporn and Egbert (2000) assuming plane wave conditions. This meant that only 12 frequencies in the range of 4–180 kHz could be used. The four lowest frequencies of CSTMT in the range of 1–2.8 kHz were excluded because of source effects. Data from all profiles were inverted with a starting model of 100 Ω-m and a relative error floor of 0.02 on apparent resistivity, corresponding to less than 1° on phase. Tipper vectors are generally small except when source effects become dominant in the lowest frequencies of CSTMT and were therefore not used for inversion. Comparing with models derived from vertical electrical soundings, refraction and reflection seismic data as well as ground truth from exploration wells assessed the reliability of the deep part of the models. Furthermore we carried out a non-linear resolution analysis to better quantify the depth extent of the aquifers.The inverted models from the Heby area show well the thickness variations of glacial deposits overlying crystalline bedrock. Generally, the upper 20 m of the models have resistivities below 40 Ω-m, taken to represent clay rich formations. Below the clay layer resistivities increase to about 40–400 Ω-m, interpreted to represent sand/gravel formations with a maximum thickness of about 40 m and a width of several hundred metres. This is a potential aquifer that extends in approximately N–S direction for some kilometres.  相似文献   
89.
In order to gain a better understanding of the geometry of surface faults, five Controlled Source/Radio Magnetotelluric (CSRMT) profiles were measured across the Volvi basin, 45 km northeast of the city of Thessaloniki in Greece. The data were collected in two frequency ranges: a) 1–12.5 kHz using a remotely controlled double horizontal magnetic dipole transmitter (CSAMT measurements), and b) 15–250 kHz using the signal from distant radio transmitters (RMT measurements). The transition from the RMT band to the CSAMT band was smooth and continuous allowing us to combine both datasets for plane-wave modeling. The surface geology shows a predominantly 2D structure, and therefore we planned the survey into profiles perpendicular to the geological strike. We have used a 2D interpretation tool to model the data in TE, TM, TE + TM and determinant modes. Using a 4% error floor on the impedance, 2D resistivity models from inversion of the determinant data provide lower RMS data fits (4.2 and 1.2 for resistivity and phase, respectively) compared to the combined TE + TM data (4.4, 2.8, overall resistivity and phase, respectively). 2D inversion of the measured tensor data shows a sharp change in the depth to the top of resistive gneiss–schist basement that is overlain by a less resistive overburden at southern basin flanks. The change in depth to the bedrock is clearly seen in all 2D models along the measured profiles suggesting the existence of normal faults with strike directions of NE–SW to E–W. The 2D electrical resistivity models suggest that the bedrock deepens towards south-west. The resistivity models are also compared with the existing borehole information in the area and show a reasonable correlation. For example the sharp change of depth to the bedrock towards the center of the basin as seen in the resistivity models are also confirmed by the borehole data.  相似文献   
90.
The paper presents an overview of the recent contributions of centrifuge modelling to the understanding of soil-structure interaction and the development of design and predictive methods in the field of mobile jack-up drilling rig foundations. Both advantages and limitations of the centrifuge methods are detailed and key examples are presented. The benefits provided by centrifuge modelling to the development of analysis methods that are now being used within the jack-up industry are highlighted. To conclude, industry trends and research opportunities are discussed, as is the possible role of the geotechnical centrifuge in finding solutions to these new needs.  相似文献   
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