Observation-based blended projections from ensembles of regional climate models     

Esther Salazar  Dorit Hammerling  Xia Wang  Bruno Sansó  Andrew O. Finley  Linda O. Mearns 《Climatic change》2016,138(1-2):55-69

We consider the problem of projecting future climate from ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) simulations using results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). To this end, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian space-time model that quantifies the discrepancies between different members of an ensemble of RCMs corresponding to present day conditions, and observational records. Discrepancies are then propagated into the future to obtain high resolution blended projections of 21st century climate. In addition to blended projections, the proposed method provides location-dependent comparisons between the different simulations by estimating the different modes of spatial variability, and using the climate model-specific coefficients of the spatial factors for comparisons. The approach has the flexibility to provide projections at customizable scales of potential interest to stakeholders while accounting for the uncertainties associated with projections at these scales based on a comprehensive statistical framework. We demonstrate the methodology with simulations from the Weather Research & Forecasting regional model (WRF) using three different boundary conditions. We use simulations for two time periods: current climate conditions, covering 1971 to 2000, and future climate conditions under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 emissions scenario, covering 2041 to 2070. We investigate and project yearly mean summer and winter temperatures for a domain in the South West of the United States.  相似文献   

Reconstructing fluvial bar surfaces from compound cross‐strata and the interpretation of bar accretion direction in large river deposits          下载免费PDF全文

Renato P. Almeida  Bernardo T. Freitas  Bruno B. Turra  Felipe T. Figueiredo  André Marconato  Liliane Janikian 《Sedimentology》2016,63(3):609-628

The interpretation of fluvial styles from the rock record is based for a significant part on the identification of different types of fluvial bars, characterized by the geometric relationship between structures indicative of palaeocurrent and surfaces interpreted as indicative of bar form and bar accretion direction. These surfaces of bar accretion are the boundaries of flood‐related bar increment elements, which are typically less abundant in outcrops than what would be desirable, particularly in large river deposits in which each flood mobilizes large volumes of sediment, causing flood‐increment boundary surfaces to be widely spaced. Cross‐strata set boundaries, on the other hand, are abundant and indirectly reflect the process of unit bar accretion, inclined due to the combined effect of the unit bar surface inclination and the individual bedform climbing angle, in turn controlled by changes in flow structure caused by local bar‐scale morphology. This work presents a new method to deduce the geometry of unit bar surfaces from measured pairs of cross‐strata and cross‐strata set boundaries. The method can be used in the absence of abundant flood‐increment bounding surfaces; the study of real cases shows that, for both downstream and laterally accreting bars, the reconstructed planes are very similar to measured bar increment surfaces.  相似文献   

青藏高原闪电和降水气候特征及时空对应关系   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

齐鹏程  郑栋  张义军  高丽娜 《应用气象学报》2016,27(4):488-497

基于1998—2013年的TRMM (tropical rainfall measuring mission) 数据,分析青藏高原闪电活动与降水气候特征及时空对应关系,结果表明:青藏高原 (简称高原) 的闪电活动中心在高原中部和东北部,中部最大闪电密度达到6.2 fl·km-2·a-1;但高原降水最活跃的区域是东南部,年降水量超过800 mm。闪电活动和降水随月份均呈现出先西进再东退的特征,但高原东北部强闪电活动区位置几乎不变化。在固定区域闪电和降水月变化具有一致性,活跃期出现在5—9月,呈单峰结构,除西部和东南部外,闪电与降水峰值月份吻合。结合TRMM降水特征 (简称PFs) 资料研究单个闪电表征降水量 (rainyield per flash,RPF) 的空间分布特征表明,闪电活动可以作为高原深对流的指示因子,而RPF可以有效表征深对流系统在整个降水系统中的比例。高原中西部和东北部深对流系统在整个降水系统中的比例最大,而在高原东南部最小,高原东南部的降水更多由暖云降水系统贡献。  相似文献   

影像与激光雷达数据的城市地物信息提取     

易俐娜  李鸾  赵学胜  李艳华 《测绘科学》2016,41(2):92-96

针对城市地物信息提取中地物边界难以确定、分类精度不高的问题,该文提出一套综合利用影像及激光雷达点云高程信息的面向对象分类方法。在分割中,各类地物的最佳分割尺度由监督法分割精度评价确定,最终分割结果利用粒度理论下的分割尺度综合方法进行合成,能兼顾不同地物最优分割尺度,获得准确地物边界;在分类中,采用ReliefF特征选择算法度量从影像及点云数据提取的对象特征重要度,选择最佳特征组合,并采用多分类器组合方法进行分类,以消除Hughes现象,提高分类精度。选择德国斯图加特市两块实验区进行分类实验,结果表明:该方法有利于提高大范围城市地物精细信息提取的精度和效率,具有较高的应用价值。  相似文献   

Indirect unstructured hex-dominant mesh generation using tetrahedra recombination     

Arnaud Botella  Bruno Lévy  Guillaume Caumon 《Computational Geosciences》2016,20(3):437-451

Corner-point gridding is widely used in reservoir and basin modeling but generally yields approximations in the representation of geological interfaces. This paper introduces an indirect method to generate a hex-dominant mesh conformal to 3D geological surfaces and well paths suitable for finite-element and control-volume finite-element simulations. By indirect, we mean that the method first generates an unstructured tetrahedral mesh whose tetrahedra are then merged into primitives (hexahedra, prisms, and pyramids). More specifically, we focus on determining the optimal set of primitives that can be recombined from a given tetrahedral mesh. First, we detect in the tetrahedral mesh all the feasible volumetric primitives using a pattern-matching algorithm (Meshkat and Talmor Int. J. Numer. Meth. Eng. 49(1-2), 17–30 2000) that we re-visit and extend with configurations that account for degenerated tetrahedra (slivers). Then, we observe that selecting the optimal set of primitives among the feasible ones can be formalized as a maximum weighted independent set problem (Bomze et al. 1999), known to be \(\mathcal {N}\mathcal {P}\)-Complete. We propose several heuristic optimizations to find a reasonable set of primitives in a practical time. All the tetrahedra of each selected primitive are then merged to build the final unstructured hex-dominant mesh. This method is demonstrated on 3D geological models including a faulted and folded model and a discrete fracture network.  相似文献   

Miocene transgression in the central and eastern parts of the Sivas Basin (Central Anatolia,Turkey) and the Cenozoic palaeogeographical evolution     

André Poisson  Bruno Vrielynck  Roland Wernli  Alessandra Negri  Maria-Angela Bassetti  Yesim Büyükmeriç  Sacit Özer  Hervé Guillou  Kaan S. Kavak  Haluk Temiz  Fabienne Orszag-Sperber 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2016,105(1):339-368

  相似文献   

Neotethyan closure history of western Anatolia: a geodynamic discussion   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Amaury Pourteau  Roland Oberhänsli  Osman Candan  Eric Barrier  Bruno Vrielynck 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2016,105(1):203-224

  相似文献   

The Cretaceous of the Swiss Jura Mountains: an improved lithostratigraphic scheme     

André Strasser  Jean Charollais  Marc André Conrad  Bernard Clavel  Antoine Pictet  Bruno Mastrangelo 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2016,109(2):201-220

  相似文献   

基于锦州湾围填海的海岸线演变分析          下载免费PDF全文

张俊丽  赵云  柯丽娜 《海洋开发与管理》2016,33(10):89-91

自20世纪70年代以来,锦州湾附近海域实施大量填海造陆工程,在促进经济发展的同时也对生态环境造成不良影响,有必要对锦州湾附近海域的围填海状况进行连续监测。文章以5个时相的Landsat TM遥感影像作为主要数据,利用RS和GIS技术手段进行锦州湾附近海域海岸线的提取,系统分析锦州湾围填海海岸线的演进过程,并从海岸线长度和海岸线曲折度等方面对锦州湾围填海开发特点进行定量分析。  相似文献   

Spatial characterization of the seawater upconing process in a coastal Mediterranean aquifer (Plana de Castellón,Spain): evolution and controls     

Olga García-Menéndez  Ignacio Morell  Bruno J. Ballesteros  Arianna Renau-Pruñonosa  Alejandra Renau-Llorens  Mª Vicenta Esteller 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(9):728

  相似文献