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41.
A 2000-yr reconstruction of air temperature in the Great Basin of the United States with specific reference to the Medieval Climatic Anomaly 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Scott A. Reinemann David F. Porinchu Glen M. MacDonald Bryan G. Mark James Q. DeGrand 《Quaternary Research》2014
A sediment core representing the past two millennia was recovered from Stella Lake in the Snake Range of the central Great Basin in Nevada. The core was analyzed for sub-fossil chironomids and sediment organic content. A quantitative reconstruction of mean July air temperature (MJAT) was developed using a regional training set and a chironomid-based WA-PLS inference model (r2jack = 0.55, RMSEP = 0.9°C). The chironomid-based MJAT reconstruction suggests that the interval between AD 900 and AD 1300, corresponding to the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), was characterized by MJAT elevated 1.0°C above the subsequent Little Ice Age (LIA), but likely not as warm as recent conditions. Comparison of the Stella Lake temperature reconstruction to previously published paleoclimate records from this region indicates that the temperature fluctuations inferred to have occurred at Stella Lake between AD 900 and AD 1300 correspond to regional records documenting hydroclimate variability during the MCA interval. The Stella Lake record provides evidence that elevated summer temperature contributed to the increased aridity that characterized the western United States during the MCA. 相似文献
42.
Sediment-based reconstructions of late-Quaternary lake levels provide direct evidence of hydrologic responses to climate change, but many studies only provide approximate lake-elevation curves. Here, we demonstrate a new method for producing quantitative time series of lake elevation based on the facies and elevations of multiple cores collected from a lake's margin. The approach determines the facies represented in each core using diagnostic data, such as sand content, and then compares the results across cores to determine the elevation of the littoral zone over time. By applying the approach computationally, decisions are made systematically and iteratively using different facies classification schemes to evaluate the associated uncertainty. After evaluating our assumptions using ground-penetrating radar (GPR), we quantify past lake-elevation changes, precipitation minus evapotranspiration (ΔP−ET), and uncertainty in both at Lake of the Woods and Little Windy Hill Pond, Wyoming. The well-correlated (r = 0.802 ± 0.002) reconstructions indicate that water levels at both lakes fell at > 11,300, 8000–5500, and 4700–1600 cal yr BP when ΔP − ET decreased to − 50 to − 250 mm/yr. Differences between the reconstructions are typically small (10 ± 24 mm/yr since 7000 cal yr BP), and the similarity indicates that our reconstruction method can produce statistically comparable paleohydrologic datasets across networks of sites. 相似文献
43.
Numerical Modelling of the Anisotropic Mechanical Behaviour of Opalinus Clay at the Laboratory-Scale Using FEM/DEM 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Andrea Lisjak Bryan S. A. Tatone Giovanni Grasselli Tim Vietor 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2014,47(1):187-206
The Opalinus Clay (OPA) is an argillaceous rock formation selected to host a deep geologic repository for high-level nuclear waste in Switzerland. It has been shown that the excavation damaged zone (EDZ) in this formation is heavily affected by the anisotropic mechanical response of the material related to the presence of bedding planes. In this context, the purpose of this study is twofold: (i) to illustrate the new developments that have been introduced into the combined finite-discrete element method (FEM/DEM) to model layered materials and (ii) to demonstrate the effectiveness of this new modelling approach in simulating the short-term mechanical response of OPA at the laboratory-scale. A transversely isotropic elastic constitutive law is implemented to account for the anisotropic elastic modulus, while a procedure to incorporate a distribution of preferentially oriented defects is devised to capture the anisotropic strength. Laboratory results of indirect tensile tests and uniaxial compression tests are used to calibrate the numerical model. Emergent strength and deformation properties, together with the simulated damage mechanisms, are shown to be in strong agreement with experimental observations. Subsequently, the calibrated model is validated by investigating the effect of confinement and the influence of the loading angle with respect to the specimen anisotropy. Simulated fracture patterns are discussed in the context of the theory of brittle rock failure and analyzed with reference to the EDZ formation mechanisms observed at the Mont Terri Underground Research Laboratory. 相似文献
44.
We present high-resolution radio maps of Uranus, made from data collected in 1994 at wavelengths of 2 and 6 cm, which show large-scale changes occurring deep and rapidly in the troposphere. Brightness features in these maps are significantly different from those observed throughout the 1980's. These differences are not due to the changing viewing geometry, but result from atmospheric changes in the 5 to 50 bar region. All the observations show strong latitudinal variations in absorber abundance and/or temperature, causing the South Pole to appear brighter than lower latitudes. The transition between bright pole and darker latitudes is always near −45°, but between 1989 and 1994 the contrast between the regions increased significantly. This suggests that the large-scale circulation in the upper 50 bars of the uranian Southern Hemisphere changed. Older, disk-averaged microwave observations have suggested that seasonal variability occurs, but these new maps are the first to provide detailed timing and location information which can be used to test dynamical models. 相似文献
45.
Bryan C. Weare 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(7-8):2165-2177
Teleconnections associated with warm El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) events in 20 climate model intercomparison project 5 (CMIP5) models have been compared with reanalysis observations. Focus has been placed on compact time and space indices, which can be assigned a specific statistical confidence. Nearly all of the models have surface temperature, precipitation and 250 hPa geopotential height departures in the Tropics that are in good agreement with the observations. Most of the models also have realistic anomalies of Northern Hemisphere near-surface temperature, precipitation and 500 hPa geopotential height. Model skill for these variables is significantly related to the ability of a model to accurately simulate Tropical 250 hPa height departures. Additionally, most models have realistic temperature and precipitation anomalies over North America, which are linked to a model’s ability to simulate Tropical 250 hPa and Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa height departures. The skills of temperature and precipitation departures over the Northern Hemisphere and North America are associated with the ability to realistically simulate realistic ENSO frequency and length. Neither horizontal nor vertical resolution differences for either the model atmosphere or ocean are significantly related at the 95 % level to variations in El Niño simulation quality. Overall, recent versions of earlier models have improved in their ability to simulate El Niño teleconnections. For instance, the average model skills of temperature and precipitation for the Tropics, Northern Hemisphere and North America for 11 CMIP5 models are all larger than those for prior versions. 相似文献
46.
Elizabeth Bryan Claudia Ringler Barrack Okoba Jawoo Koo Mario Herrero Silvia Silvestri 《Climatic change》2013,118(2):151-165
Changes in the agriculture sector are essential to mitigate and adapt to climate change, meet growing food demands, and improve the livelihoods of poor smallholder producers. What agricultural strategies are needed to meet these challenges? To what extent are there synergies among these strategies? This paper examines these issues for smallholder producers in Kenya across several agroecological zones. Several practices emerge as triple wins, supporting climate adaptation, greenhouse gas mitigation, and profitability goals. In particular, integrated soil fertility management and improved livestock feeding are shown to provide multiple benefits across all agroecological zones examined. Triple wins of other agricultural practices are limited to specific agroecological zones. Irrigation and soil and water conservation, for example, are essential for adaptation, mitigation, and profitability in arid areas. The results suggest that agricultural investments targeted toward these triple-win strategies will have the greatest payoff in terms of increased resilience of farm and pastoralist households and global climate change mitigation. To reap the benefits of triple-win strategies will require that policymakers, researchers, and practitioners move away from isolated approaches focused on either adaptation or mitigation or rural income generation toward a more holistic assessment of joint strategies as well as their tradeoffs and synergies. 相似文献
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