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131.
Coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models are key tools to investigate climate dynamics and the climatic response to external forcings, to predict climate evolution and to generate future climate projections. Current general circulation models are, however, undisputedly affected by substantial systematic errors in their outputs compared to observations. The assessment of these so-called biases, both individually and collectively, is crucial for the models’ evaluation prior to their predictive use. We present a Bayesian hierarchical model for a unified assessment of spatially referenced climate model biases in a multi-model framework. A key feature of our approach is that the model quantifies an overall common bias that is obtained by synthesizing bias across the different climate models in the ensemble, further determining the contribution of each model to the overall bias. Moreover, we determine model-specific individual bias components by characterizing them as non-stationary spatial fields. The approach is illustrated based on the case of near-surface air temperature bias in the tropical Atlantic and bordering regions from a multi-model ensemble of historical simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The results demonstrate the improved quantification of the bias and interpretative advantages allowed by the posterior distributions derived from the proposed Bayesian hierarchical framework, whose generality favors its broader application within climate model assessment.  相似文献   
132.
Here we review the multiple interactions between the endemic Mediterranean seagrass, Posidonia oceanica, and coastal geomorphologic processes as an outstanding example of biogeomorphology, taking into account recent advances in the field. Seagrass meadows are among the most important elements for the functioning of marine coastal ecosystems, and represent a major focus for research and conservation. Being considered a priority habitat, P. oceanica meadows are protected by several European Union directives and national laws. In this paper we examine: the role of sedimentary features in controlling the development of the meadows; the interplay between P. oceanica leaf litter (i.e. beached necromass) cast ashore and erosional‐depositional processes on the beaches; the interactions between meadows and nearshore hydrodynamics, and; possible linkages between geomorphological features of the seafloor and the architecture of meadows. Finally, we provide perspectives for future research on P. oceanica and other Mediterranean seagrass meadows in a biogeomorphological context with specific reference to climate change. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
133.
Rising in the Andes, the Madeira River drains the southwestern part of the Amazon basin, which is characterized by high geographical, biological and climatic diversity. This study uses daily records to assess the spatio-temporal runoff variability in the Madeira sub-basins. Results show that inter-annual variability of both discharge and rainfall differs between Andean and lowland tributaries. High-flow discharge variability in the Andean tributaries and the Guaporé River is mostly related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific in austral summer, while tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SST modulates rainfall and discharge variability in the lowlands. There also is a downward trend in the low-flow discharge of the lowland tributaries which is not observed in the Andes. Because low-flow discharge values at most lowland stations are negatively related to the SST in the tropical North Atlantic, these trends could be explained by the warming of this ocean since the 1970s.
EDITOR A. Castellarin

ASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Viglione  相似文献   
134.
Indo-Pacific coral reefs are considered among the most complex and biodiversified ecosystems in the world. Their existence is threatened by both natural and anthropogenic factors. Therefore, the assessment of anthropogenic disturbances is necessary to protect and manage these marine natural resources. In Bunaken Marine Park (North Sulawesi, Indonesia) epibenthic assemblages and coral rubble features at four impacted sites (each of them located close to villages and frequently exploited as recreational diving spots), and four well preserved sites (far from villages and scarcely frequented by divers), were investigated at 6, 12 and 18 m depth, in order to identify possible reef modifications. The assemblages were sampled by way of photographs. Coral rubble cover was estimated both by way of photographs and along belt transects, while grain size and the living fraction of the coral rubble were assessed by direct samples. The data showed significant differences between the study sites and between depths with regard to human activity. The hard coral cover and the assemblage heterogeneity are higher in control sites than in the impacted site where, especially in shallow water, the mechanical damage can strongly affect the assemblage structure.  相似文献   
135.
136.
A measured calibrated solar radiance in the range 1.2-, with the spectral sampling of does not exist. When studying the measured Planetary Fourier Spectrometer (PFS) spectra of the Earth's or Mars's atmosphere we discover that the most used solar spectrum contains several important errors. Here we present a “calibrated” solar radiance in the wavelength range 1.2-, with the spectral resolution of PFS , which we are going to use for studying Martian spectra. This spectrum has been assembled using measurements from Kitt Peak and from ATMOS Spacelab experiment (uncalibrated high resolution) and theoretical results, together with low resolution calibrated continuum. This is the best we can have in this moment to be used with PFS, while waiting to have good solar calibrated radiances. Examples of solar lines at Mars are given.  相似文献   
137.
Analysis of the historical records of Etnas eruptive activity for the past three centuries shows that, after the large 1669 eruption, a period of about 60 years of low-level activity followed. Starting from 1727, explosive activity (strombolian, lava fountaining and subplinian) at the summit crater increased exponentially to the present day. Since 1763, the frequency of flank eruptions also increased and this value remained high until 1960; afterward it further increased sharply. In fact, the number of summit and flank eruptions between 1961 and 2003 was four times greater than that of the pre-1960 period. This long-term trend of escalating activity rules out a pattern of cyclic behaviour of the volcano. We propose instead that the 1670–2003 period most likely characterises a single eruptive cycle which began after the large 1669 eruption and which is still continuing.On the basis of the eruptive style, two distinct types of flank eruptions are recognised: Class A and Class B. Class A eruptions are mostly effusive with associated weak strombolian activity; Class B eruptions are characterised by effusive activity accompanied by intense, long-lasting, strombolian and lava fountaining activity that produces copious tephra fallouts, as during the 2001 and 2002–2003 eruptions. Over the past three centuries, seven Class B eruptions have taken place with vents located mainly on the south-eastern flank, indicating that this sector of the volcano is a preferential zone for the intrusion of volatile-rich magma rising from the deeper region of the Etna plumbing system.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at Editorial responsibility: M. Carroll  相似文献   
138.
139.
The Mediterranean coralligenous substratum is a hard bottom of biogenic origin, mainly composed of calcareous algae, growing in dim light conditions. Sponges are among of the most representative taxa of the coralligenous assemblages, with more than 300 recorded species of different habits: massive, erect, boring and insinuating. When sponges die, their siliceous spicules remain trapped in the biogenic concretion, offering the opportunity to describe the coralligenous spongofauna over a very long span of time, virtually dating back to a large part of the Holocene period. The data reported here were obtained from core samples collected from four coralligenous concretions. Each block was collected in a different locality of the Ligurian Sea: Santo Stefano Shoals, Bogliasco, Punta del Faro (Portofino Promontory) and Punta Manara. Radiocarbon age determinations indicate for these conglomerates a maximal age between 1600 and 3100 years. The spicules trapped in the cores show deep dissolution marks in the form of circular holes on their surface or present an enlargement of the axial canal. However, their original shape, generally intact, suggests the absence of mechanical injuries and allows a tentative identification at the species level. The analysis of these old spicules reveals an ancient sponge assemblage composed of 30 recognisable species. This indicates that almost one half of the sponge community today settled on coralligenous substrata has been present in the conglomerates for their entire existence.  相似文献   
140.
Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Thailand   总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2  
A set of probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Thailand has been derived using procedures developed for the latest US National Seismic Hazard Maps. In contrast to earlier hazard maps for this region, which are mostly computed using seismic source zone delineations, the presented maps are based on the combination of smoothed gridded seismicity, crustal-fault, and subduction source models. Thailand’s composite earthquake catalogue is revisited and expanded, covering a study area limited by 0°–30°N Latitude and 88°–110°E Longitude and the instrumental period from 1912 to 2007. The long-term slip rates and estimates of earthquake size from paleoseismological studies are incorporated through a crustal fault source model. Furthermore, the subduction source model is used to model the megathrust Sunda subduction zones, with variable characteristics along the strike of the faults. Epistemic uncertainty is taken into consideration by the logic tree framework incorporating basic quantities, such as different source modelling, maximum cut-off magnitudes and ground motion prediction equations. The ground motion hazard map is presented over a 10 km grid in terms of peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration at 0.2, 1.0, and 2.0 undamped natural periods and a 5% critical damping ratio for 10 and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years. The presented maps give expected ground motions that are based on more extensive data sources than applied in the development of previous maps. The main findings are that northern and western Thailand are subjected to the highest hazard. The largest contributors to short- and long-period ground motion hazard in the Bangkok region are from the nearby active faults and Sunda subduction zones, respectively.  相似文献   
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