On using a generalized linear model to downscale daily precipitation for the center of Portugal: an analysis of trends and extremes     

Mário Pulquério  Pedro Garrett  Filipe Duarte Santos  Maria João Cruz 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2015,120(1-2):147-158

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The climate in Zafra from 1750 to 1840: precipitation     

M. I. Fernández-Fernández  M. C. Gallego  F. Domínguez-Castro  R. M. Trigo  J. M. Vaquero 《Climatic change》2015,129(1-2):267-280

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Carbonyl Sulphide (OCS) Variability with Latitude in the Atmosphere     

Gisèle Krysztofiak  Yao Veng Té  Gwenaël Berthet  Geoffrey C. Toon  Fabrice Jégou 《大气与海洋》2015,53(1):89-101

Abstract

Carbonyl sulphide (OCS) is an important precursor of sulphate aerosols and consequently a key species in stratospheric ozone depletion. The SPectromètre InfraRouge d'Absorption à Lasers Embarqués (SPIRALE) and shortwave infrared (SWIR) balloon-borne instruments have flown in the tropics and in the polar Arctic, and ground-based measurements have been performed by the Qualité de l'Air (QualAir) Fourier Transform Spectrometer in Paris. Partial and total columns and vertical profiles have been obtained to study OCS variability with altitude, latitude, and season. The annual total column variation in Paris reveals a seasonal variation with a maximum in April–June and a minimum in November–January. Total column measurements above Paris and from SWIR balloon-borne instrument are compared with several MkIV measurements, several Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC) stations, aircraft, ship, and balloon measurements to highlight the OCS total column decrease from tropical to polar latitudes. OCS high-resolution in situ vertical profiles have been measured for the first time in the altitude range between 14 and 30?km at tropical and polar latitudes. OCS profiles are compared with Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment (ACE) satellite measurements and show good agreement. Using the correlation between OCS and N₂O from SPIRALE, the OCS stratospheric lifetime has been accurately determined. We find a stratospheric lifetime of 68?±?20 years at polar latitudes and 58?±?14 years at tropical latitudes leading to a global stratospheric sink of 49?±?14?Gg?S?y^?1.  相似文献   

Added-value from initialization in predictions of Atlantic multi-decadal variability     

J.?García-SerranoEmail author  V.?Guemas  F.?J.?Doblas-Reyes 《Climate Dynamics》2015,44(9-10):2539-2555

Identifying regions sensitive to external radiative changes, including anthropogenic (sulphate aerosols and greenhouse gases) and natural (volcanoes and solar variations) forcings, is important to formulate actionable information at multi-year time-scales. Internally-generated climate variability can overcome this radiative forcing, especially at regional level, so that detecting the areas for this potential dominance is likewise critical for decadal prediction. This work aims to clarify where each contribution has the largest effect on North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) predictions in relation to the Atlantic multi-decadal variability (AMV). Initialized decadal hindcasts and radiatively-forced historical simulations from the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project are analysed to assess multi-year skill of the AMV. The initialized hindcasts reproduce better the phase of the AMV index fluctuations. The radiatively-forced component consists of a residual positive trend, although its identification is ambiguous. Initialization reduces the inter-model spread when estimating the level of AMV skill, thus reducing its uncertainty. Our results show a skilful performance of the initialized hindcasts in capturing the AMV-related SST anomalies over the subpolar gyre and Labrador Sea regions, as well as in the eastern subtropical basin, and the inability of the radiatively-forced historical runs to simulate the horseshoe-like AMV signature over the North Atlantic. Initialization outperforms empirical predictions based on persistence beyond 1–4 years ahead, suggesting that ocean dynamics play a role in the AMV predictability beyond the thermal inertia. The initialized hindcasts are also more skilful at reproducing the observed AMV teleconnection to the West African monsoon. The impact of the start date frequency is also described, showing that the standard of 5-year interval between start dates yields the main features of the AMV skill that are robustly detected in hindcasts with yearly start date sampling. This work updates previous studies, complementing them, and concludes that skilful initialized multi-model forecasts of the AMV-related climate variability can be formulated, improving uninitialized projections, until 3–6 years ahead.  相似文献   

Consistent global responses of marine ecosystems to future climate change across the IPCC AR5 earth system models     

Cabré  Anna  Marinov  Irina  Leung  Shirley 《Climate Dynamics》2015,45(5-6):1253-1280

Climate Dynamics - We analyze for the first time all 16 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models with explicit marine ecological modules to identify the common mechanisms involved in...  相似文献   

A minimal dynamical model for tidal synchronization and orbit circularization     

József Vanyó  Bruno Escribano  Julyan H. E. Cartwright  Diego L. González  Oreste Piro  Tamás Tél 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2011,109(2):181-200

We study tidal synchronization and orbit circularization in a minimal model that takes into account only the essential ingredients of tidal deformation and dissipation in the secondary body. In previous work we introduced the model (Escribano et al. in Phys. Rev. E, 78:036216, 2008); here we investigate in depth the complex dynamics that can arise from this simplest model of tidal synchronization and orbit circularization. We model an extended secondary body of mass m by two point masses of mass m/2 connected with a damped spring. This composite body moves in the gravitational field of a primary of mass M ≫ m located at the origin. In this simplest case oscillation and rotation of the secondary are assumed to take place in the plane of the Keplerian orbit. The gravitational interactions of both point masses with the primary are taken into account, but that between the point masses is neglected. We perform a Taylor expansion on the exact equations of motion to isolate and identify the different effects of tidal interactions. We compare both sets of equations and study the applicability of the approximations, in the presence of chaos. We introduce the resonance function as a resource to identify resonant states. The approximate equations of motion can account for both synchronization into the 1:1 spin-orbit resonance and the circularization of the orbit as the only true asymptotic attractors, together with the existence of relatively long-lived metastable orbits with the secondary in p:q (p and q being co-prime integers) synchronous rotation.  相似文献   

A systematic cross-search for radio/infrared counterparts of XMM-<Emphasis Type="Italic">Newton</Emphasis> sources     

J. A. Combi  J. F. Albacete Colombo  L. Pellizza  J. López-Santiago  G. E. Romero  J. Martí  A. J. Muñoz-Arjonilla  E. Sánchez-Ayaso  P. L. Luque-Escamilla  J. R. Sánchez-Sutil 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2011,331(1):53-61

We present a catalog of cross-correlated radio, infrared and X-ray sources using a very restrictive selection criteria with an IDL-based code developed by us. The significance of the observed coincidences was evaluated through Monte Carlo simulations of synthetic sources following a well-tested protocol. We found 3320 coincident radio/X-ray sources with a high statistical significance characterized by the sum of error-weighted coordinate differences. For 997 of them, 2MASS counterparts were found. The percentage of chance coincidences is less than 1%. X-ray hardness ratios of well-known populations of objects were used to provide a crude representation of their X-ray spectrum and to make a preliminary diagnosis of the possible nature of unidentified X-ray sources. The results support the fact that the X-ray sky is largely dominated by Active Galactic Nuclei at high galactic latitudes (|b|≥10°). At low galactic latitudes (|b|≤10°) most of unidentified X-ray sources (∼94%) lie at |b|≤2°. This result suggests that most of the unidentified sources found toward the Milky Way plane are galactic objects. Well-known and unidentified sources were classified in different tables with their corresponding radio/infrared and X-ray properties. These tables are intended as a useful tool for researchers interested in particular identifications.  相似文献   

Constraining the mass and moment of inertia of neutron stars from quasi-periodic oscillations in X-ray binaries     

Jérôme Pétri 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2011,331(2):555-563

Neutron stars are the densest objects known in the Universe. Being the final product of stellar evolution, their internal composition and structure is rather poorly constrained by measurements.  相似文献   

Relationship of ground level enhancements with solar,interplanetary and geophysical parameters     

K. A. Firoz  J. Hwang  I. Dorotovič  T. Pintér  Subhash C. Kaushik 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2011,331(2):469-484

Cosmic rays registered by Neutron Monitor on the surface of the Earth are believed to originate from outer space, and sometimes also from the exotic objects of the Sun. Whilst the intensities of the cosmic rays are observed to be enhanced with sudden, sharp and short-lived increases, they are termed as ground level enhancements (GLEs). They are the occurrences in solar cosmic ray intensity variations on short-term basis, so different solar factors erupted from the Sun can be responsible for causing them. In this context, an attempt has been made to determine quantitative relationships of the GLEs having peak increase >5% with simultaneous solar, interplanetary and geophysical factors from 1997 through 2006, thereby searching the responsible factors which seem to cause the enhancements. Results suggest that GLE peaks might be caused by solar energetic particle fluxes and solar flares. The proton fluxes which seemed to cause GLE peaks were also supported by their corresponding fluences. For most of the flares, the time integrated rising portion of the flare emission refers to the strong portion of X-ray fluxes which might be the concern to GLE peak. On an average, GLE peak associated X-ray flux (0.71×10⁻⁴ w/m²) is much stronger than GLE background associated X-ray flux (0.11×10⁻⁶ w/m²). It gives a general consent that the GLE peak is presumably caused by the solar flare. Coronal mass ejection alone does not seem to cause GLE. Coronal mass ejection presumably causes geomagnetic disturbances characterized by geomagnetic indices and polarities of interplanetary magnetic fields.  相似文献   

Sensitive observations of radio recombination lines in Orion and W51: the data and detection of systematic recombination line blueshifts proportional to impact broadening     

M.?B.?BellEmail author  L.?W.?Avery  J.?M.?MacLeod  J.?P.?Vallée 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2011,333(2):377-388

Sensitive spectral observations made in two frequency bands near 6.0 and 17.6 GHz are described for Orion and W51. Using frequency switching we were able to achieve a dynamic range in excess of 10,000 without fitting sinusoidal or polynomial baselines. This enabled us to detect lines as weak as T _A ∼1 mK in these strong continuum sources. Hydrogen recombination lines with Δn as high as 25 have been detected in Orion. In the Orion data, where the lines are stronger, we have also detected a systematic shift in the line center frequencies proportional to linewidth that cannot be explained by normal optical depth effects.  相似文献