Hydrogeologic controls on streamflow sensitivity to climate variation     

Anne Jefferson  Anne Nolin  Sarah Lewis  Christina Tague 《水文研究》2008,22(22):4371-4385

Climate models project warmer temperatures for the north‐west USA, which will result in reduced snowpacks and decreased summer streamflow. This paper examines how groundwater, snowmelt, and regional climate patterns control discharge at multiple time scales, using historical records from two watersheds with contrasting geological properties and drainage efficiencies. In the groundwater‐dominated watershed, aquifer storage and the associated slow summer recession are responsible for sustaining discharge even when the seasonal or annual water balance is negative, while in the runoff‐dominated watershed subsurface storage is exhausted every summer. There is a significant 1 year cross‐correlation between precipitation and discharge in the groundwater‐dominated watershed (r = 0·52), but climatic factors override geology in controlling the inter‐annual variability of streamflow. Warmer winters and earlier snowmelt over the past 60 years have shifted the hydrograph, resulting in summer recessions lasting 17 days longer, August discharges declining 15%, and autumn minimum discharges declining 11%. The slow recession of groundwater‐dominated streams makes them more sensitive than runoff‐dominated streams to changes in snowmelt amount and timing. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Russian eruption warning systems for aviation     

Christina Neal  Olga Girina  Sergey Senyukov  Alexander Rybin  Jeffrey Osiensky  Pavel Izbekov  Gail Ferguson 《Natural Hazards》2009,51(2):245-262

More than 65 potentially active volcanoes on the Kamchatka Peninsula and the Kurile Islands pose a substantial threat to aircraft on the Northern Pacific (NOPAC), Russian Trans-East (RTE), and Pacific Organized Track System (PACOTS) air routes. The Kamchatka Volcanic Eruption Response Team (KVERT) monitors and reports on volcanic hazards to aviation for Kamchatka and the north Kuriles. KVERT scientists utilize real-time seismic data, daily satellite views of the region, real-time video, and pilot and field reports of activity to track and alert the aviation industry of hazardous activity. Most Kurile Island volcanoes are monitored by the Sakhalin Volcanic Eruption Response Team (SVERT) based in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk. SVERT uses daily moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite images to look for volcanic activity along this 1,250-km chain of islands. Neither operation is staffed 24 h per day. In addition, the vast majority of Russian volcanoes are not monitored seismically in real-time. Other challenges include multiple time-zones and language differences that hamper communication among volcanologists and meteorologists in the US, Japan, and Russia who share the responsibility to issue official warnings. Rapid, consistent verification of explosive eruptions and determination of cloud heights remain significant technical challenges. Despite these difficulties, in more than a decade of frequent eruptive activity in Kamchatka and the northern Kuriles, no damaging encounters with volcanic ash from Russian eruptions have been recorded.  相似文献   

Regional ash fall hazard I: a probabilistic assessment methodology   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Susanna Jenkins  Christina Magill  John McAneney  Russell Blong 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2012,74(7):1699-1712

Volcanic ash is one of the farthest-reaching volcanic hazards and ash produced by large magnitude explosive eruptions has the potential to affect communities over thousands of kilometres. Quantifying the hazard from ash fall is problematic, in part because of data limitations that make eruption characteristics uncertain but also because, given an eruption, the distribution of ash is then controlled by time and altitude-varying wind conditions. Any one location may potentially be affected by ash falls from one, or a number of, volcanoes so that volcano-specific studies may not fully capture the ash fall hazard for communities in volcanically active areas. In an attempt to deal with these uncertainties, this paper outlines a probabilistic framework for assessing ash fall hazard on a regional scale. The methodology employs stochastic simulation techniques and is based upon generic principles that could be applied to any area, but is here applied to the Asia-Pacific region. Average recurrence intervals for eruptions greater than or equal to Volcanic Explosivity Index 4 were established for 190 volcanoes in the region, based upon the eruption history of each volcano and, where data were lacking, the averaged eruptive behaviour of global analogous volcanoes. Eruption histories are drawn from the Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program catalogue of Holocene events and unpublished data, with global analogues taken from volcanoes of the same type category: Caldera, Large Cone, Shield, Lava dome or Small Cone. Simulated are 190,000 plausible eruption scenarios, with ash dispersal for each determined using an advection–diffusion model and local wind conditions. Key uncertainties are described by probability distributions. Modelled results include the annual probability of exceeding given ash thicknesses, summed over all eruption scenarios and volcanoes. A companion paper describes the results obtained for the Asia-Pacific region  相似文献   

Exposure of dissolved organic matter to UV-radiation increases bacterial growth efficiency in a clear-water Alpine stream and its adjacent groundwater     

Christina?Fasching  Tom?J.?BattinEmail author 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》2012,74(1):143-153

In many streams, microbial growth largely relies on terrigenous organic carbon that has been initially stored in soils and that is generally believed to be recalcitrant to microbial metabolism. The various mechanisms that underlie the availability of terrigenous organic carbon as it enters streams remain poorly understood. One possible mechanism can be photodegradation of terrigenous dissolved organic carbon (DOC) upon exposure to sunlight in streamwater. To explore this, we experimentally exposed streamwater, shallow groundwater and soil water from a clear-water Alpine headwater stream, and both soil and algal extracts, to UV-radiation and studied the effects on DOC optical properties and implications for microbial growth. Our results on the apparent quantum yield suggest that DOC from groundwater and soil water is more resistant to photodegradation than DOC in the streamwater itself. This would highlight the relevance of the exposure history of DOC to sunlight. Overall, UV-radiation decreased the aromaticity (as SUVA254) of the DOC and reduced its molecular weight as indicated by the slope ratio, S _R (S _275–295/S _350–400). UV-treatment significantly increased bacterial growth rate and bacterial growth efficiency in the streamwater, soil water, groundwater and soil extract but not in algal extract. Our findings suggest photodegradation as one mechanism that contributes to the microbial utilisation of terrigenous DOC even in clear-water streams.  相似文献   

Integration of Local Observations into the One Dimensional Fog Model PAFOG   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Christina Thoma  Werner Schneider  Matthieu Masbou  Andreas Bott 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2012,169(5-6):881-893

The numerical prediction of fog requires a very high vertical resolution of the atmosphere. Owing to a prohibitive computational effort of high resolution three dimensional models, operational fog forecast is usually done by means of one dimensional fog models. An important condition for a successful fog forecast with one dimensional models consists of the proper integration of observational data into the numerical simulations. The goal of the present study is to introduce new methods for the consideration of these data in the one dimensional radiation fog model PAFOG. First, it will be shown how PAFOG may be initialized with observed visibilities. Second, a nudging scheme will be presented for the inclusion of measured temperature and humidity profiles in the PAFOG simulations. The new features of PAFOG have been tested by comparing the model results with observations of the German Meteorological Service. A case study will be presented that reveals the importance of including local observations in the model calculations. Numerical results obtained with the modified PAFOG model show a distinct improvement of fog forecasts regarding the times of fog formation, dissipation as well as the vertical extent of the investigated fog events. However, model results also reveal that a further improvement of PAFOG might be possible if several empirical model parameters are optimized. This tuning can only be realized by comprehensive comparisons of model simulations with corresponding fog observations.  相似文献   

Impact of Heterogeneity on Oxygen Transfer in a Fluctuating Capillary Fringe          下载免费PDF全文

Christina M. Haberer  Massimo Rolle  Olaf A. Cirpka  Peter Grathwohl 《Ground water》2015,53(1):57-70

We performed quasi‐two‐dimensional flow through laboratory experiments to study the effect of a coarse‐material inclusion, located in the proximity of the water table, on flow and oxygen transfer in the capillary fringe. The experiments investigate different phases of mass transfer from the unsaturated zone to anoxic groundwater under both steady‐state and transient flow conditions, the latter obtained by fluctuating the water table. Monitoring of flow and transport in the different experimental phases was performed by visual inspection of the complex flow field using a dye tracer solution, measurement of oxygen profiles across the capillary fringe, and determination of oxygen fluxes in the effluent of the flow‐through chamber. Our results show significant effects of the coarse‐material inclusion on oxygen transfer during the different phases of the experiments. At steady state, the oxygen flux across the unsaturated/saturated interface was considerably enhanced due to flow focusing in the fully water‐saturated coarse‐material inclusion. During drainage, a zone of higher water saturation formed in the fine material overlying the coarse lens. The entrapped oxygen‐rich aqueous phase contributed to the total amount of oxygen supplied to the system when the water table was raised back to its initial level. In case of imbibition, pronounced air entrapment occurred in the coarse lens, causing oxygen to partition between the aqueous and gaseous phases. The oxygen mass supplied to the anoxic groundwater following the imbibition event was found to be remarkably higher (approximately seven times) in the heterogeneous system compared with a similar experiment performed in a homogeneous porous medium.  相似文献   

Chronic exposure of adults and embryos of Pandalus borealis to oil causes PAH accumulation, initiation of biomarker responses and an increase in larval mortality     

Renée Katrin Bechmann  Bodil Katrine Larsen  Ingrid Christina Taban  Per Møller 《Marine pollution bulletin》2010,60(11):2087-2098

Adult shrimps (Pandalus borealis) and their embryos were exposed to an oil-water dispersion (OWD) at concentrations of 0.015, 0.06 and 0.25 mg/L using a continuous flow system. Lysosomal membrane stability was analysed in haemocytes using the neutral red retention assay and an alkaline unwinding assay was used to measure DNA damage in hepatopancreas tissue. Exposure to oil induced concentration and time dependent biomarker responses in adult shrimps together with the accumulation of PAH in their tissues. Oil exposure of shrimp embryos caused increased mortality in the resultant larvae, even if the larvae were kept in clean water after hatching. There were minor differences observed in larval stage development times in the first part of the experiments. The fatty acid composition of embryos exposed to oil was different to that of non-exposed larvae. PAH tissue concentration and biomarker responses correlated to the reduced survival of the shrimp larvae.  相似文献   

Avalanche Hazard Mitigation Strategies Assessed by Cost Effectiveness Analyses and Cost Benefit Analyses—evidence from Davos,Switzerland     

Sven Fuchs  Magdalena Thöni  Maria Christina McAlpin  Urs Gruber  Michael Bründl 《Natural Hazards》2007,41(1):113-129

This paper demonstrates the application of cost effectiveness analysis and cost benefit analysis to alternative avalanche risk reduction strategies in Davos, Switzerland. The advantages as well as limitations of such analysis for natural hazards planning are discussed with respect to 16 avalanche risk reduction strategies. Scenarios include risk reduction measures that represent the main approaches to natural hazards planning in Switzerland, such as technical, organisational, and land use planning measures. The methodologies used outline how concepts and techniques from risk analysis, hazard mapping, Geographic Information System, and economics can be interdisciplinary combined. The results suggest important considerations, such as possible sources of uncertainty due to different choices in the calculation of cost effectiveness ratio and net present value. Given the parameters and assumptions, it seems as if the current approach to avalanche risk reduction in the study area approximates to economic and cost efficiency and serves the aim of reducing risk to human fatalities.  相似文献   

Structural and geochronological constraints on the tectonic evolution of the Dulong-Song Chay tectonic dome in Yunnan province, SW China   总被引：14，自引：1，他引：14  

Dan-Ping Yan  Mei-Fu Zhou  Christina Yan Wang  Bin Xia 《Journal of Asian Earth Sciences》2006,28(4-6):332-353

The Dulong-Song Chay tectonic dome lies on the border of China (SE Yunnan Province) and northern Vietnam, and consists of two tectonic and lithologic units: a core complex and a cover sequence, separated by an extensional detachment fault. These two units are overlain unconformably by Late Triassic strata. The core complex is composed of gneiss, schist and amphibolite. SHRIMP zircon U–Pb dating results for the orthogneiss yield an age of 799±10 Ma, which is considered to be the crystallization age of its igneous protolith formed in an arc-related environment. A granitic intrusion within the core complex occurred with an age of 436–402 Ma, which probably formed during partial closure of Paleotethys. Within the core complex, metamorphic grades change sharply from upper greenschist-low amphibolite facies in the core to low greenschist facies in the cover sequence. There are two arrays of foliation within the core complex, detachment fault and the cover sequence: S₁ and S₂. The pervasive S₁ is the axial plane of intrafolial S₀ folds. D₁ deformation related to this foliation is characterized by extensional structures. The strata were structurally thinned or selectively removed along the detachment faults, indicating exhumation of the Dulong-Song Chay tectonic dome. The major extension occurred at 237 Ma, determined by SHRIMP zircon U–Pb and ³⁹Ar/⁴⁰Ar isotopic dating techniques. Regionally, simultaneous tectonic extension was associated with pre-Indosinian collision between the South China and Indochina Blocks. The S₂ foliation appears as the axial plane of NW-striking S₁ buckling folds formed during a compressional regime of D₂. D₂ is associated with collision between the South China and Indochina Blocks along the Jinshajiang-Ailao Shan suture zone, and represents the Indosinian deformation. The Dulong granites intruded the Dulong-Song Chay dome at 144±2, 140±2 and 116±10 Ma based on ³⁹Ar/⁴⁰Ar measurement on muscovite and biotite. The dome was later overprinted by a conjugate strike-slip fault and related thrust fault, which formed a vortex structure, contemporaneously with late Cenozoic sinistral movement on the Ailao Shan-Red River fault.  相似文献   

Macroalgal distribution patterns in a shallow, soft-bottom lagoon, with emphasis on the nonnativeGracilaria vermiculophylla andCodium fragile     

Mads Solgaard Thomsen  Karen J. McGlathery  Anna Christina Tyler 《Estuaries and Coasts》2006,29(3):465-473

We determined the distribution of macroalgae in Hog Island Bay, a shallow coastal lagoon in Virginia, USA, seasonally at 12 sites from 1998 to 2000 and at 3 representative sites from 2000 to 2002. We analyzed macroalgal biomass, taxonomic richness, and abundance of two non-native species, the cryptic invaderGracilaria vermiculophylla and the conspicuousCodium fragile, with respect to season, location (mainland, mid lagoon, barrier island sites), and elevation (intertidal, subtidal). Taxonomic richness, total algal biomass, and nonnative biomass peaked in the summer months when temperature and light availability were highest. A few stress tolerant and ephemeral algae dominated the algal assemblage.G. vermiculophylla constituted 74% of the entire algal biomass, was the most abundant alga in all seasons, locations, and elevation levels, and was positively correlated with taxonomic richness and abundance of filamentous species.Ulva curvata, Bryopsis plumosa, andC. fragile accounted for an additional 16% of the algal biomass. There are distinct habitats in Hog Island Bay that can be classified into low diversity-low biomass regions near the mainland and barrier islands and high diversity-high biomass regions in the open mid lagoon, where abundant shells for attachment and intermediate levels of water column nutrients and turbidity likely create better growth conditions. Taxonomic richness and biomass were higher in subtidal than intertidal zones, presumably due to lower desiccation stress. This study provides an example of how a single invasive species can dominate an entire assemblage, both in terms of biomass (being most abundant in all seasons, locations, and tidal levels) and species richness (correlating positively with epiphytic filamentous taxa). By adding hard-substratum structural complexity to a relatively homogenous soft-substratum system,G. vermiculophylla increases substratum availability for attachment and entanglement of other algal species and enhances local diversity. Without widespread and abundantG. vermiculophylla, taxa likePolysiphonia, Ceramium, Bryopsis, Ectocarpus, andChampia would likely be much less common. This study also highlights the importance of using DNA analysis of voucher specimens in monitoring programs to accurately identify cryptic invaders.  相似文献