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There are a number of sources of uncertainty in regional climate change scenarios. When statistical downscaling is used to obtain regional climate change scenarios, the uncertainty may originate from the uncertainties in the global climate models used, the skill of the statistical model, and the forcing scenarios applied to the global climate model. The uncertainty associated with global climate models can be evaluated by examining the differences in the predictors and in the downscaled climate change scenarios based on a set of different global climate models. When standardized global climate model simulations such as the second phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP2) are used, the difference in the downscaled variables mainly reflects differences in the climate models and the natural variability in the simulated climates. It is proposed that the spread of the estimates can be taken as a measure of the uncertainty associated with global climate models. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of global-climate-model-related uncertainty in regional precipitation change scenarios in Sweden. Results from statistical downscaling based on 17 global climate models show that there is an overall increase in annual precipitation all over Sweden although a considerable spread of the changes in the precipitation exists. The general increase can be attributed to the increased large-scale precipitation and the enhanced westerly wind. The estimated uncertainty is nearly independent of region. However, there is a seasonal dependence. The estimates for winter show the highest level of confidence, while the estimates for summer show the least.  相似文献   
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We investigated the inventory of presolar silicate, oxide, and silicon carbide (SiC) grains of fine‐grained chondrule rims in six Mighei‐type (CM) carbonaceous chondrites (Banten, Jbilet Winselwan, Maribo, Murchison, Murray and Yamato 791198), and the CM‐related carbonaceous chondrite Sutter's Mill. Sixteen O‐anomalous grains (nine silicates, six oxides) were detected, corresponding to a combined matrix‐normalized abundance of ~18 ppm, together with 21 presolar SiC grains (~42 ppm). Twelve of the O‐rich grains are enriched in 17O, and could originate from low‐mass asymptotic giant branch stars. One grain is enriched in 17O and significantly depleted in 18O, indicative of additional cool bottom processing or hot bottom burning in its stellar parent, and three grains are of likely core‐collapse supernova origin showing enhanced 18O/16O ratios relative to the solar system ratio. We find a presolar silicate/oxide ratio of 1.5, significantly lower than the ratios typically observed for chondritic meteorites. This may indicate a higher degree of aqueous alteration in the studied meteorites, or hint at a heterogeneous distribution of presolar silicates and oxides in the solar nebula. Nevertheless, the low O‐anomalous grain abundance is consistent with aqueous alteration occurring in the protosolar nebula and/or on the respective parent bodies. Six O‐rich presolar grains were studied by Auger Electron Spectroscopy, revealing two Fe‐rich silicates, one forsterite‐like Mg‐rich silicate, two Al‐oxides with spinel‐like compositions, and one Fe‐(Mg‐)oxide. Scanning electron and transmission electron microscopic investigation of a relatively large silicate grain (490 nm × 735 nm) revealed that it was crystalline åkermanite (Ca2Mg[Si2O7]) or a an åkermanite‐diopside (MgCaSi2O6) intergrowth.  相似文献   
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The Ediacara mineral field is situated 30 km W of Beltana on the western margins of the Flinders Ranges, South Australia, and consists of silver‐lead and copper deposits in lower Cambrian carbonate rocks that contain anomalous base‐metal contents throughout the Adelaide Geosyncline. The lower Cambrian rocks, which consist of the basal Parachilna Formation and overlying Ajax Limestone, rest disconformably on the Precambrian, and at Ediacara occupy a shallow N‐S elongate syncline near the hinge zone of the Adelaide Geosyncline. The main primary ore minerals of the silver‐lead mineralization are galena and pyrite, with very minor chalcopyrite and sphalerite, and rare tetrahedrite and pearceite. The gangue consists mainly of silica (both chalcedony and quartz), with minor dolomite and rare barite. The mineralization is stratabound and occurs in conformable zones, the lowest of which commences about 30–50 m above the base of the Cambrian sequence. The host to the silver‐lead mineralization, the Ajax Limestone, can be subdivided into three units which represent a set of lithologies, structures and organic traces indicative of a shallow near‐shore carbonate environment. The silver‐lead mineralization is mainly present in sandy and laminated dolomites which were deposited in an environment ranging from sub‐tidal to bar and channel and tidal flat, respectively. Four types of mineralization have been recognized; disseminated sulphides of syngenetic and/or diagenetic origin and epigenetic concentrations along stylolites, in veins and as breccia fillings. Post‐depositional solution activity has affected a large proportion of the carbonate sequence. The effects of this activity range from stylolites through stylobreccias to solution collapse breccias. The epigenetic concentrations of mineralizations have apparently been formed by the remobilization of the disseminated sulphides during solution activity. The ore and gangue minerals of the epigenetic mineralization display both euhedral forms and distinct colloform banding, and framboidal textures have also been observed in both pyrite and galena. There is evidence of repeated episodic precipitation and no simple paragenetic sequence can be recognized. Fluid inclusions in silica and dolomite associated with the epigenetic mineralization have homogenization temperatures of 159 to 199°C and freezing temperatures that indicate the fluids to be saline brines containing NaCl with CaCl2 and/or MgCl2. Sulphur isotope analyses show a range of 834S values from ‐12.5 to +8.6 per mil, with no evidence of significant differences between the four types of mineralization. The data suggest deposition of the disseminated sulphides as a result of biological reduction of seawater sulphate in a system partially open with respect to sulphate supply. Subsequent remobilization of sulphides apparently involved little or no sulphur isotope fractionation. The Ediacara silver‐lead deposits have many features in common with Mississippi Valley‐type lead‐zinc deposits and appear to have similarities in terms of genesis, in that the epigenetic mineralization has been formed as a result of post‐depositional solution activity during diagenesis in a sedimentary basin. The scale of transport of the metals deposited as the epigenetic mineralization at Ediacara appears, however, to have been very much less than that of the metals in other Mississippi Valley‐type deposits.  相似文献   
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This meta-analysis of land-cover transformations of the past 10–15 years in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers world-wide shows that swidden agriculture decreases in landscapes with access to local, national and international markets that encourage cattle production and cash cropping, including biofuels. Conservation policies and practices also accelerate changes in swidden by restricting forest clearing and encouraging commercial agriculture. However, swidden remains important in many frontier areas where farmers have unequal or insecure access to investment and market opportunities, or where multi-functionality of land uses has been preserved as a strategy to adapt to current ecological, economic and political circumstances. In some areas swidden remains important simply because intensification is not a viable choice, for example when population densities and/or food market demands are low. The transformation of swidden landscapes into more intensive land uses has generally increased household incomes, but has also led to negative effects on the social and human capital of local communities to varying degrees. From an environmental perspective, the transition from swidden to other land uses often contributes to permanent deforestation, loss of biodiversity, increased weed pressure, declines in soil fertility, and accelerated soil erosion. Our prognosis is that, despite the global trend towards land use intensification, in many areas swidden will remain part of rural landscapes as the safety component of diversified systems, particularly in response to risks and uncertainties associated with more intensive land use systems.  相似文献   
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The consequences of wildfires are felt in susceptible communities around the globe on an annual basis. Climate change predictions in places like the south-east of Australia and western United States suggest that wildfires may become more frequent and more intense with global climate change. Compounding this issue is progressive urban development at the peri-urban fringe (wildland–urban interface), where continued infrastructure development and demographic changes are likely to expose more people and property to this potentially disastrous natural hazard. Preparing well in advance of the wildfire season is seen as a fundamental behaviour that can both reduce community wildfire vulnerability and increase hazard resilience – it is an important element of adaptive capacity that allows people to coexist with the hazardous environment in which they live. We use household interviews and surveys to build and test a substantive model that illustrates how social cohesion influences the decision to prepare for wildfire. We demonstrate that social cohesion, particularly community characteristics like ‘sense of community’ and ‘collective problem solving’, are community-based resources that support both the adoption of mechanical preparations, and the development of cognitive abilities and capacities that reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience to wildfire. We use the results of this work to highlight opportunities to transfer techniques and approaches from natural hazards research to climate change adaptation research to explore how the impacts attributed to the social components of social–ecological systems can be mitigated more effectively.  相似文献   
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A gravimetric survey on the sea-bottom was performed on the Erimo Seamount by the French submersible “Nautile”. It took place during the second phase of the Kaiko French-Japanese Program. The reference station was established on the Erimo submarine observatory at a depth of 3942 m and from this point the survey of four stations was carried out. The obtained accuracy of the gravity field measurements was about 0.1 mGal.

A three-dimensional model of the seamount and its surroundings was constrained by the free-air anomaly values from the sea surface and from the sea bottom and by the perfect Seabeam topography survey of the whole area. The model which fitted the observed values best, allowed us to identify a low-density layer of coral limestones and volcaniclastics capping the seamount and to define the geometry of the interface between basalts and coral rocks.  相似文献   

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