Transient climate changes in a perturbed parameter ensemble of emissions-driven earth system model simulations     

James M. Murphy  Ben B. B. Booth  Chris A. Boulton  Robin T. Clark  Glen R. Harris  Jason A. Lowe  David M. H. Sexton 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(9-10):2855-2885

We describe results from a 57-member ensemble of transient climate change simulations, featuring simultaneous perturbations to 54 parameters in the atmosphere, ocean, sulphur cycle and terrestrial ecosystem components of an earth system model (ESM). These emissions-driven simulations are compared against the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble of physical climate system models, used extensively to inform previous assessments of regional climate change, and also against emissions-driven simulations from ESMs contributed to the CMIP5 archive. Members of our earth system perturbed parameter ensemble (ESPPE) are competitive with CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in their simulations of historical climate. In particular, they perform reasonably well in comparison with HadGEM2-ES, a more sophisticated and expensive earth system model contributed to CMIP5. The ESPPE therefore provides a computationally cost-effective tool to explore interactions between earth system processes. In response to a non-intervention emissions scenario, the ESPPE simulates distributions of future regional temperature change characterised by wide ranges, and warm shifts, compared to those of CMIP3 models. These differences partly reflect the uncertain influence of global carbon cycle feedbacks in the ESPPE. In addition, the regional effects of interactions between different earth system feedbacks, particularly involving physical and ecosystem processes, shift and widen the ESPPE spread in normalised patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change in many regions. Significant differences from CMIP3 also arise from the use of parametric perturbations (rather than a multimodel ensemble) to represent model uncertainties, and this is also the case when ESPPE results are compared against parallel emissions-driven simulations from CMIP5 ESMs. When driven by an aggressive mitigation scenario, the ESPPE and HadGEM2-ES reveal significant but uncertain impacts in limiting temperature increases during the second half of the twenty-first century. Emissions-driven simulations create scope for development of errors in properties that were previously prescribed in coupled ocean–atmosphere models, such as historical CO₂ concentrations and vegetation distributions. In this context, historical intra-ensemble variations in the airborne fraction of CO₂ emissions, and in summer soil moisture in northern hemisphere continental regions, are shown to be potentially useful constraints, subject to uncertainties in the relevant observations. Our results suggest that future climate-related risks can be assessed more comprehensively by updating projection methodologies to support formal combination of emissions-driven perturbed parameter and multi-model earth system model simulations with suitable observational constraints. This would provide scenarios underpinned by a more complete representation of the chain of uncertainties from anthropogenic emissions to future climate outcomes.  相似文献   

Editorial: Understanding our place in the world     

Robin Kearns  Scott Nichol 《New Zealand geographer》2004,60(1):1-1

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Local And Global Diffusion Along Resonant Lines in Discrete Quasi-integrable Dynamical Systems     

Claude Froeschlé  Massimiliano Guzzo  Elena Lega 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2005,92(1-3):243-255

We detect and measure diffusion along resonances in a quasi-integrable symplectic map for different values of the perturbation parameter. As in a previously studied Hamiltonian case (Lega et al., 2003) results agree with the prediction of the Nekhoroshev theorem. Moreover, for values of the perturbation parameter slightly below the critical value of the transition between Nekhoroshev and Chirikov regime we have also found a diffusion of some orbits along macroscopic portions of the phase space. Such a diffusion follows in a spectacular way the peculiar structure of resonant lines.  相似文献   

Correction to: Estimating rockfall release frequency from blocks deposited in protection barriers,growth disturbances in trees,and trajectory simulations     

Farvacque  Manon  Corona  Christophe  Lopez-Saez  Jerome  Mainieri  Robin  Stoffel  Markus  Bourrier  Franck  Eckert  Nicolas  Toe  David 《Landslides》2022,19(1):263-264

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Short‐term forecasting with a multi‐level spectral primitive equation model part I ‐ model formulation     

Roger Daley  Claude Girard  John Henderson  Ian Simmonds 《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):98-116

A global baroclinic primitive equation model using the spectral technique has been constructed for short‐ and medium‐range numerical weather prediction. The spectral technique, which is a special case of the Galerkin method, employs spherical harmonic basis functions in the evaluation of all horizontal derivatives. The use of a transform technique allows all the horizontal operations to be performed efficiently and allows physical processes to be evaluated in real space. The model employs a semi‐implicit algorithm for time integration and finite differencing in the vertical. Physical processes include orography, moist convection, large scale precipitation and boundary layer processes.  相似文献   

Topics: Virtual geological outcrops – fieldwork and analysis made less exhaustive?     

Jamie Pringle  y Gardiner  & Robin Westerman 《Geology Today》2004,20(2):67-71

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Shock‐melted material in the Krymka LL3.1 chondrite: Behavior of the opaque minerals     

Vira P. Semenenko  Claude Perron 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2005,40(2):173-185

Abstract— Six large millimeter‐ to centimeter‐size regions of one specimen of the Krymka LL3.1 ordinary chondrite show evidence of having been completely or nearly completely shock‐melted in situ, a phenomenon rarely observed in primitive chondrites. The shock pressure, nominally in the range of 75–90 GPa, could only have been 30–35 GPa in a porous material like fine‐grained matrix. The melted regions have an igneous texture and their silicates are zoned and unequilibrated. Large metal‐troilite intergrowths formed in these regions. The metal has a nickel content corresponding to martensite and the troilite contains up to 4.2 wt% nickel. Melting must have been very short and cooling very fast (>100 °C/h at high temperature). The metal contains up to 0.7 wt% phosphorus. Abundant chromite crystals and sodium‐iron phosphate glass globules are found in troilite. The differences in composition between the opaque phases found in the melted regions and those generally observed in unmetamorphosed chondrules are assigned to melting under closed system conditions. Surprisingly high Co concentrations (up to 13 wt%) were found in some metal grains in or at the periphery of melted regions. They likely resulted from sulfurization of metal by sulfur vapor produced during the shock. After solidification, at least one other shock led to mechanical effects in the melted regions.  相似文献   

The Peopling of Britain: the shaping of a human landscape. The Linacre lectures, 1999 edited by Paul Slack and Ryk Ward     

Robin Butlin 《Area》2006,38(1):118-120

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Editorial     

Max Coleman  Claude Jaupart  Alfred Kröner  Adolphe Nicolas 《地学学报》2002,14(5):301-301

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Norges Havretts — OG ressurspolitikk (Norway's law of the sea and resources policy): edited by Arne Treholt,Karl Nandrup Dahl,Einar Hysvaer,and Ivar Nes Tiden Norsk Forlag,Oslo, 1976, 215 pages     

Robin Churchill 《Marine Policy》1978,2(3):247-248

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