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991.
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The primary objective of the gravity recovery and climate experiment follow-on (GRACE-FO) satellite mission, due for launch in August 2017, is to continue the GRACE time series of global monthly gravity field models. For this, evolved versions of the GRACE microwave instrument, GPS receiver, and accelerometer will be used. A secondary objective is to demonstrate the effectiveness of a laser ranging interferometer (LRI) in improving the satellite-to-satellite tracking measurement performance. In order to investigate the expected enhancement for Earth science applications, we have performed a full-scale simulation over the nominal mission lifetime of 5 years using a realistic orbit scenario and error assumptions both for instrument and background model errors. Unfiltered differences between the synthetic input and the finally recovered time-variable monthly gravity models show notable improvements with the LRI, on a global scale, of the order of 23 %. The gain is realized for wavelengths smaller than 240 km in case of Gaussian filtering but decreases to just a few percent when anisotropic filtering is applied. This is also confirmed for some typical regional Earth science applications which show randomly distributed patterns of small improvements but also degradations when using DDK4-filtered LRI-based models. Analysis of applied error models indicates that accelerometer noise followed by ocean tide and non-tidal mass variation errors are the main contributors to the overall GRACE-FO gravity model error. Improvements in these fields are therefore necessary, besides optimized constellations, to make use of the increased LRI accuracy and to significantly improve gravity field models from next-generation gravity missions.  相似文献   
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Quantification of spatially and temporally resolved water flows and water storage variations for all land areas of the globe is required to assess water resources, water scarcity and flood hazards, and to understand the Earth system. This quantification is done with the help of global hydrological models (GHMs). What are the challenges and prospects in the development and application of GHMs? Seven important challenges are presented. (1) Data scarcity makes quantification of human water use difficult even though significant progress has been achieved in the last decade. (2) Uncertainty of meteorological input data strongly affects model outputs. (3) The reaction of vegetation to changing climate and CO2 concentrations is uncertain and not taken into account in most GHMs that serve to estimate climate change impacts. (4) Reasons for discrepant responses of GHMs to changing climate have yet to be identified. (5) More accurate estimates of monthly time series of water availability and use are needed to provide good indicators of water scarcity. (6) Integration of gradient-based groundwater modelling into GHMs is necessary for a better simulation of groundwater–surface water interactions and capillary rise. (7) Detection and attribution of human interference with freshwater systems by using GHMs are constrained by data of insufficient quality but also GHM uncertainty itself. Regarding prospects for progress, we propose to decrease the uncertainty of GHM output by making better use of in situ and remotely sensed observations of output variables such as river discharge or total water storage variations by multi-criteria validation, calibration or data assimilation. Finally, we present an initiative that works towards the vision of hyperresolution global hydrological modelling where GHM outputs would be provided at a 1-km resolution with reasonable accuracy.  相似文献   
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Previous time-lapse Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) studies have experienced difficulties in reconstructing reliable calculated resistivity changes in the subsurface. Increases or decreases of resistivity appear in the calculated ERT image where no changes were noted in the subsurface, leading to erroneous hydrological interpretations of the geophysical results. In this article, we investigate how a variation of actual resistivity with time and at shallow depth can influence time-lapse ERT results and produce resistivity artefacts at depth. We use 1 and 2-D numerical modelling to simulate infiltration scenarios. Using a standard time-lapse inversion, we demonstrate the resistivity artefact production according to the electrode spacing parameter. We used an advanced inversion methodology with a decoupling line at shallow depth to attenuate or remove resistivity artefacts. We also applied this methodology to a field data set obtained in a semi-arid environment in Burkina Faso, West Africa. Here, time-lapse ERT shows several resistivity artefacts of calculated resistivity if a standard inversion is used. We demonstrate the importance of a dense sampling of shallow resistivity variations at shallow depth. Advanced interpretation allows us to significantly attenuate or remove the resistivity artefact production at intermediate depth and produce reliable interpretation of hydrological processes.  相似文献   
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The seismic hazard model used in the PEGASOS project for assessing earth-quake hazard at four NPP sites was a composite of four sub-models, each produced by a team of three experts. In this paper, one of these models is described in detail by the authors. A criticism sometimes levelled at probabilistic seismic hazard studies is that the process by which seismic source zones are arrived at is obscure, subjective and inconsistent. Here, we attempt to recount the stages by which the model evolved, and the decisions made along the way. In particular, a macro-to-micro approach was used, in which three main stages can be described. The first was the characterisation of the overall kinematic model, the “big picture” of regional seismogenesis. Secondly, this was refined to a more detailed seismotectonic model. Lastly, this was used as the basis of individual sources, for which parameters can be assessed. Some basic questions had also to be answered about aspects of the approach to modelling to be used: for instance, is spatial smoothing an appropriate tool to apply? Should individual fault sources be modelled in an intraplate environment? Also, the extent to which alternative modelling decisions should be expressed in a logic tree structure has to be considered.  相似文献   
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The Earth Science (ES) community has three major IT related concerns: Modeling (computing intensive), exploitation of datasets, and production of large shared datasets. All could be accomplishable using Grid. Different Grid middleware solutions exist and are being developed. In DEGREE (Dissemination and Exploitation of Grids in Earth sciencE) the aim was to disseminate and promote uptake of Grid in ES and to create a bridge between ES and Grid communities. DEGREE identified key ES requirements and has disseminated these to Grid projects, evaluated Grid middleware tools and standards regarding ES requirements and provided feedback to Grid developers. In order to convey requirements to the Grid community, test suite specifications were developed. Test suites provide real applications for testing functional and non-functional aspects of Grid, contrary to typical whiteboard tests or use cases. In this paper the GOMEVAL test suite is explained in detail and the results obtained are discussed.  相似文献   
1000.
Adaptive neuro-fuzzy modeling for the swelling potential of compacted soils   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
This paper aims to present the usability of an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for the prediction swelling potential of the compacted soils that are important materials for geotechnical purposes such as engineered barriers for municipal solid waste, earth dams, embankment and roads. In this study the swelling potential that is also one of significant parameters for compacted soils was modeled by ANFIS. For the training and testing of ANFIS model, data sets were collected from the tests performed on compacted soils for different geotechnical application in Nigde. Four parameters such as coarse-grained fraction ratio (CG), fine-grained fraction ratio (FG), plasticity index (PI) and maximum dry density (MDD) were presented to ANFIS model as inputs. The results obtained from the ANFIS models were validated with the data sets which are not used for the training stage. The analyses revealed that the predictions from ANFIS model are in sufficient agreement with test results.  相似文献   
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