Managing atmospheric CO2     

L. D. Danny Harvey 《Climatic change》1989,15(3):339-341

A coupled carbon cycle-climate model is used to compute global atmospheric CO₂ and temperature variation that would result from several future CO₂ emission scenarios. The model includes temperature and CO₂ feedbacks on the terrestrial biosphere, and temperature feedback on the oceanic uptake of CO₂. The scenarios used include cases in which fossil fuel CO₂ emissions are held constant at the 1986 value or increase by 1% yr^–1 until either 2000 or 2020, followed by a gradual transition to a rate of decrease of 1 or 2% yr^–1. The climatic effect of increases in non-CO₂ trace gases is included, and scenarios are considered in which these gases increase until 2075 or are stabilized once CO₂ emission reductions begin. Low and high deforestation scenarios are also considered. In all cases, results are computed for equilibrium climatic sensitivities to CO₂ doubling of 2.0 and 4.0 °C.Peak atmospheric CO₂ concentrations of 400–500 ppmv and global mean warming after 1980 of 0.6–3.2 °C occur, with maximum rates of global mean warming of 0.2–0.3 °C decade^–1. The peak CO₂ concentrations in these scenarios are significantly below that commonly regarded as unavoidable; further sensitivity analyses suggest that limiting atmospheric CO₂ to as little as 400 ppmv is a credible option.Two factors in the model are important in limiting atmospheric CO₂: (1) the airborne fraction falls rapidly once emissions begin to decrease, so that total emissions (fossil fuel + land use-induced) need initially fall to only about half their present value in order to stabilize atmospheric CO₂, and (2) changes in rates of deforestation have an immediate and proportional effect on gross emissions from the biosphere, whereas the CO₂ sink due to regrowth of forests responds more slowly, so that decreases in the rate of deforestation have a disproportionately large effect on net emission.If fossil fuel emissions were to decrease at 1–2% yr^–1 beginning early in the next century, emissions could decrease to the rate of CO₂ uptake by the predominantly oceanic sink within 50–100 yrs. Simulation results suggest that if subsequent emission reductions were tied to the rate of CO₂ uptake by natural CO₂ sinks, these reductions could proceed more slowly than initially while preventing further CO₂ increases, since the natural CO₂ sink strength decreases on time scales of one to several centuries. The model used here does not account for the possible effect on atmospheric CO₂ concentration of possible changes in oceanic circulation. Based on past rates of atmospheric CO₂ variation determined from polar ice cores, it appears that the largest plausible perturbation in ocean-air CO₂ flux due to changes of oceanic circulation is substantially smaller than the permitted fossil fuel CO₂ emissions under the above strategy, so tieing fossil fuel emissions to the total sink strength could provide adequate flexibility for responding to unexpected changes in oceanic CO₂ uptake caused by climatic warming-induced changes of oceanic circulation.  相似文献   

Remote sensing and avian influenza: A review of image processing methods for extracting key variables affecting avian influenza virus survival in water from Earth Observation satellites     

Annelise Tran  Flavie Goutard  Lise Chamaillé  Nicolas Baghdadi  Danny Lo Seen 《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2010

Recent studies have highlighted the potential role of water in the transmission of avian influenza (AI) viruses and the existence of often interacting variables that determine the survival rate of these viruses in water; the two main variables are temperature and salinity.  相似文献   

Estimation of Interstitial Velocity Using a Direct Drive High-Resolution Passive Profiler     

Haley A. Schneider  W. Andrew Jackson  Ken Rainwater  Danny Reible  Stephen Morse  Paul B. Hatzinger  Uriel Garza-Rubalcava 《Ground water》2019,57(6):915-924

The fate and transport of groundwater contaminants depends partially on groundwater velocity, which can vary appreciably in highly stratified aquifers. A high-resolution passive profiler (HRPP) was developed to evaluate groundwater velocity, contaminant concentrations, and microbial community structure at ∼20 cm vertical depth resolution in shallow heterogeneous aquifers. The objective of this study was to use mass transfer of bromide (Br⁻), a conservative tracer released from cells in the HRPP, to estimate interstitial velocity. Laboratory experiments were conducted to empirically relate velocity and the mass transfer coefficient of Br⁻ based on the relative loss of Br⁻ from HRPP cells. Laboratory-scale HRPPs were deployed in flow boxes containing saturated soils with differing porosities, and the mass transfer coefficient of Br⁻ was measured at multiple interstitial velocities (0 to 100 cm/day). A two-dimensional (2D) quasi-steady-state model was used to relate velocity to mass transfer of Br⁻ for a range of soil porosities (0.2–0.5). The laboratory data indicate that the mass transfer coefficient of Br⁻, which was directly—but non-linearly—related to velocity, can be determined with a single 3-week deployment of the HRPP. The mass transfer coefficient was relatively unaffected by sampler orientation, length of deployment time, or porosity. The model closely simulated the experimental results. The data suggest that the HRPP will be applicable for estimating groundwater velocity ranging from 1 to 100 cm/day in the field at a minimum depth resolution of 10 cm, depending on sampler design.  相似文献   

A Network Perspective on Spatial Data Infrastructures: Application to the Sub-national SDI of Flanders (Belgium)   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Danny Vandenbroucke  Joep Crompvoets  Glenn Vancauwenberghe  Ezra Dessers  Jos Van Orshoven 《Transactions in GIS》2009,13(S1):105-122

In order to provide a basis for quantitative and qualitative assessment of SDI-performance, a clear definition and a theoretical framework for SDI are needed. From the various definitions and frameworks of SDI available in the literature, the productional and the geographic information process perspective were selected, combined and extended. From the productional perspective, SDI-development is a dynamic process in which suppliers and users of spatial data interact to add value to the data by using them in applications and processes. The geographic information process perspective incorporates the "information acquisition – delivery – usage" chain. The extension proposed in this article leads to a network perspective on SDI. The nature of this perspective is described for the Flemish SDI. Its applicability to characterise and underpin the assessment of SDI is tested using a Social Network Analysis (SNA) focusing on the network structure parameters "density", "distance" and "centrality". The SNA confirms the applicability, usability and extensibility of the network perspective to characterize the SDI, to describe the data flows between stakeholders and to analyse the behaviour of the different (types) of stakeholders within the network. We conclude that SNA should likely be complemented by an impact analysis of different SDI setups on business processes which will provide a good basis for a holistic SDI-performance assessment.  相似文献   

On the role of spatial resolution on snow estimates using a process‐based snow model across a range of climatology and elevation     

Mohammad M. Sohrabi  Daniele Tonina  Rohan Benjankar  Mukesh Kumar  Patrick Kormos  Danny Marks  Charlie Luce 《水文研究》2019,33(8):1260-1275

Hydrological processes in mountainous settings depend on snow distribution, whose prediction accuracy is a function of model spatial scale. Although model accuracy is expected to improve with finer spatial resolution, an increase in resolution comes with modelling costs related to increased computational time and greater input data and parameter information. This computational and data collection expense is still a limiting factor for many large watersheds. Thus, this work's main objective is to question which physical processes lead to loss in model accuracy with regard to input spatial resolution under different climatic conditions and elevation ranges. To address this objective, a spatially distributed snow model, iSnobal, was run with inputs distributed at 50‐m—our benchmark for comparison—and 100‐m resolutions and with aggregated (averaged from the fine to the large resolution) inputs from the 50‐m model to 100‐, 250‐, 500‐, and 750‐m resolution for wet, average, and dry years over the Upper Boise River Basin (6,963 km²), which spans four elevation bands: rain dominated, rain–snow transition, and snow dominated below treeline and above treeline. Residuals, defined as differences between values quantified with high resolution (>50 m) models minus the benchmark model (50 m), of simulated snow‐covered area (SCA) and snow water equivalent (SWE) were generally slight in the aggregated scenarios. This was due to transferring the effects of topography on meteorological variables from the 50‐m model to the coarser scales through aggregation. Residuals in SCA and SWE in the distributed 100‐m simulation were greater than those of the aggregated 750 m. Topographic features such as slope and aspect were simplified, and their gradient was reduced due to coarsening the topography from the 50‐ to 100‐m resolution. Therefore, solar radiation was overestimated, and snow drifting was modified and caused substantial SCA and SWE underestimation in the distributed 100‐m model relative to the 50‐m model. Large residuals were observed in the wet year and at the highest elevation band when and where snow mass was large. These results support that model accuracy is substantially reduced with model scales coarser than 50 m.  相似文献   

Discharge estimation of submarine springs in the Dead Sea based on velocity or density measurements in proximity to the water surface     

Yaniv Y. Munwes  Stefan Geyer  David Katoshevski  Danny Ionescu  Tobias Licha  Christian Lott  Jonathan B. Laronne  Christian Siebert 《水文研究》2020,34(2):455-472

The Dead Sea is a closed lake, the water level of which is lowering at an alarming rate of about 1 m/year. Factors difficult to determine in its water balance are evaporation and groundwater inflow, some of which emanate as submarine groundwater discharge. A vertical buoyant jet generated by the difference in densities between the groundwater and the Dead Sea brine forms at submarine spring outlets. To characterize this flow field and to determine its volumetric discharge, a system was developed to measure the velocity and density of the ascending submarine groundwater across the center of the stream along several horizontal sections and equidistant depths while divers sampled the spring. This was also undertaken on an artificial submarine spring with a known discharge to determine the quality of the measurements and the accuracy of the method. The underwater widening of the flow is linear and independent of the volumetric spring discharge. The temperature of the Dead Sea brine at lower layers primarily determines the temperature of the surface of the upwelling, produced above the jet flow, as the origin of the main mass of water in the submarine jet flow is Dead Sea brine. Based on the measurements, a model is presented to evaluate the distribution of velocity and solute density in the flow field of an emanating buoyant jet. This model allows the calculation of the volumetric submarine discharge, merely requiring either the maximum flow velocity or the minimal density at a given depth.  相似文献   

Estimating surface sublimation losses from snowpacks in a mountain catchment using eddy covariance and turbulent transfer calculations     

Michele L. Reba  John Pomeroy  Danny Marks  Timothy E. Link 《水文研究》2012,26(24):3699-3711

Sublimation is a critical component of the snow cover mass balance. Although sublimation can be directly measured using eddy covariance (EC), such measurements are relatively uncommon in complex mountainous environments. The EC measurements of surface snowpack sublimation from three consecutive winter seasons (2004, 2005 and 2006) at a wind‐exposed and wind‐sheltered site were analysed to characterise sublimation in mountainous terrain. During the 2006 snow season, snow surface and near‐surface air temperature, humidity and wind were also measured, permitting the calculation of sublimation rates and a comparison with EC measurements. This comparison showed that measured and simulated sublimation was very similar at the exposed site but less so at the sheltered site. Wind speeds at the exposed site were nearly four times than that at the sheltered site, and the exposed site yielded measured sublimation that was two times the magnitude of that at the sheltered site. The time variation of measured sublimation showed diurnal increases in the early afternoon and increased rates overall as the snow season progressed. Measured mean daily sublimation rates were 0.39 and 0.15 mm day^?1 at the exposed and sheltered sites, respectively. At the exposed site, measured sublimation accounted for 16% and 41% of the maximum snow accumulation in 2006 and 2005, respectively. At the sheltered site, measured seasonal sublimation was approximately 4% in 2004 and 2006 and 8% in 2005 of the maximum snow water equivalent. Simulated sublimation was only available for 2006 and suggested smaller but comparable percentages to the sublimation estimated from observations. At the exposed site, a total of 42 mm sublimated for the snow season, which constituted 12% of the maximum accumulation. At the sheltered site, 17 mm (2.2% of maximum accumulation) was sublimated over the snow season. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

IPHAS discoveries of young stars towards Cyg OB2 and its southern periphery     

Jorick S. Vink  Janet E. Drew  Danny Steeghs  Nick J. Wright  Eduardo L. Martin  Boris T. Gänsicke  Robert Greimel  Jeremy Drake 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,387(1):308-318

We report on the discovery of over 50 strong Hα emitting objects towards the large OB association Cyg OB2 and the H  ii region DR 15 on its southern periphery. This was achieved using the INT Photometric Hα Survey of the Northern Galactic Plane (IPHAS), combined with follow-up spectroscopy using the MMT multi-object spectrometer HectoSpec. We present optical spectra, supplemented with optical r ',  i ' and H α photometry from IPHAS, and near-infrared J ,  H and K photometry from Two Micron All Sky Survey. The position of the objects in the ( J − H ) versus ( H − K ) diagram strongly suggests most of them are young. Many show Ca  ii infrared triplet emission indicating that they are in a pre-main-sequence phase of evolution of T Tauri and Herbig Ae nature. Among these, we have uncovered pronounced clustering of T Tauri stars roughly a degree south of the centre of Cyg OB2, in an arc close to the H  ii region DR 15, and the radio ring nebula G79.29+0.46, for which we discuss its candidacy as a luminous blue variable. The emission-line objects towards Cyg OB2 itself could be the brightest most prominent component of a population of lower mass pre-main-sequence stars that has yet to be uncovered. Finally, we discuss the nature of the ongoing star formation in Cyg OB2 and the possibility that the central OB stars have triggered star formation in the periphery.  相似文献   

Spring temperature variability in northern Fennoscandia AD 1693–2011     

Neil J. Loader  Risto Jalkanen  Danny Mccarroll  Anders Moberg 《第四纪科学杂志》2011,26(6):566-570

A reconstruction of spring (April–May) temperature for northern Fennoscandia developed from the Tornionjoki (Tornio river) long cryophenological record of ice break‐up dates, back to AD 1693, is presented. The record is strongly climatically sensitive and explains 67% of the variance in the instrumental data over the last 150 years. The record exhibits a stepped decrease in the duration of the river's ice cover by 14 days, equivalent to an increase in April–May mean temperature of approximately 2.5°C over the last three centuries. The relationship between the date of ice break‐up, and accumulated daily mean temperatures (>0°C) is investigated. Uncertainty in the observation of ice break‐up is also considered in addition to the potential of this time series for regional climate model validation. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Oxygen stable isotope ratios from British oak tree-rings provide a strong and consistent record of past changes in summer rainfall     

Giles H. F. Young  Neil J. Loader  Danny McCarroll  Roderick J. Bale  Joanne C. Demmler  Daniel Miles  Nigel T. Nayling  Katja T. Rinne  Iain Robertson  Camilla Watts  Matthew Whitney 《Climate Dynamics》2015,45(11-12):3609-3622

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