Empirical methods for the assessment of insolation and evaporation in Southern Scotland     

Prof. Lawrence C. Nkemdirim 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1970,18(2):131-141

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Refinement of the modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction     

Daniel J. Brehm  Lawrence W. Braile 《Journal of Seismology》1999,3(2):121-138

The modified time-to-failure method for intermediate-term earthquake prediction utilizes empirical relationships to reduce the number of unknown parameters providing a stable and unique solution set. The only unknown parameters in the modified time-to-failure method are the time and size of the impending main shock. The modified time-to-failure equation is used to model the precursory events and a prediction contour diagram is constructed with the magnitude and time-of-failure as the axes of the diagram. The root-mean-square (rms) is calculated for each set of time and magnitude on the prediction diagram representing the difference between the model (calculated) acceleration and the actual accelerated energy release of the precursory events. A small region, corresponding to the low rms region on the diagram, defines the prediction. The prediction has been shown to consistently under-estimate the magnitude and over-estimate the time-of-failure. These shortcomings are caused by an underestimation in energy release of the modified time-to-failure equation at the very end of the sequence. An empirical correction can be applied to the predicted results to minimize this problem. A main shock location search technique has been developed for use with the modified time-to-failure method. The location technique is used to systematically search an earthquake catalog and identify locations corresponding to precursory sequences that display accelerated energy releases. It has shown good results when applied in retrospective predictions, and is essential for the practical application of the modified time-to-failure method. In addition, an observed linear characteristic in long-term energy release can be used to minimize false predictions. The refined empirical relationships that eliminate or constrain unknown constants used in the modified time-to-failure method and the main shock location search technique are used in a practical application in the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ). The NMSZ, which is over due for a magnitude 6 event according to recurrence rates (Johnston and Nava, 1985), makes this region ideal for testing the method. One location was identified in the NMSZ as a high risk area for an event in the magnitude 4.5 range. The prediction, if accurate, is of scientific interest only because of the relatively small size of the main shock.  相似文献   

Stable Isotope Ratios: Hurricane Olivia   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

James R. Lawrence  Stanley David Gedzelman  John Gamache  Michael Black 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2002,41(1):67-82

The oxygen and hydrogen isotopic compositions of rains from HurricaneOlivia (1994) in the eastern Pacific were measured. The rains werecollected on 24 and 25 September during airplane flights conducted at anelevation of 3 km. Hurricane Olivia peaked in intensity to a category-4storm between the two dates. Isotope ratios of rains from HurricaneOlivia were markedly lower ( ¹⁸O = –13.9to –28.8) than that of rain collected from a thunderstormat an elevation of 2.3 km outside the influence of Olivia (¹⁸O = –3.8). A distinct decrease in isotoperatios from the first day to the next ( ¹⁸O =–18.4 to –21.9) in Hurricane Olivia wasattributed to decreased updraft velocities and outflow aloft. Thisshifted the isotopic water mass balance so that fewer hydrometeors werelifted and more ice descended to flight level. A decrease in the averagedeuterium excess from the first day to the next (d = 15.5 to 7.1)was attributed to an increase in the relative humidity of the watervapor `source' area. We hypothesize that the `source' region for therain was in the boundary layer near the storm center and that becausethe hurricane was at peak intensity prior to the second day the relative humidity was higher.  相似文献   

Mercury concentrations in the fur of steller sea lions and northern fur seals from Alaska     

Beckmen KB  Duffy LK  Zhang X  Pitcher KW 《Marine pollution bulletin》2002,44(10):1130-1135

We compared total mercury (THg) concentrations in the fur of northern fur seals (Callorhinus ursinus) from the depleted Pribilof Islands population with those of both declining and thriving populations of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) from Prince William Sound (PWS) and Southeast Alaska (SEA), respectively. Relatively low wet weight concentrations (ranges) of THg were detected in the fur of Steller sea lion (SSL) pups (0.90-3.14 microg/g) and juveniles (0.56-6.75 microg/g) from both areas in 1998 and 2000 compared to northern fur seal (NFS) pups (3.15-8.14 microg/g) in 2000. The mean concentration +/- SD for SSLs sampled were 1.46 +/- 0.64 microg/g for pups (n = 22) and 2.74 +/- 2.89 microg/g for juveniles (n = 6). Analyses indicated higher THg concentrations from SSL pups from PWS compared to the SEA. Mean +/- SD. THg in the NFS pups was 4.90 +/- 1.42 microg/g (n = 34) and for post-partum dams was 7.84 +/- 1.78 microg/g (n = 12).  相似文献   

Inflight Calibration of the NEAR Multispectral Imager: II. Results from Eros Approach and Orbit     

Scott MurchieMark Robinson  Deborah DomingueHan Li  Louise ProckterS.Edward Hawkins III  William OwenBeth Clark  Noam Izenberg 《Icarus》2002,155(1):229-243

During the Near-Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR) spacecraft's investigation of asteroid 433 Eros, inflight calibration measurements from the multispectral imager (MSI) have provided refined knowledge of the camera's radiometric performance, pointing, and light-scattering characteristics. Measurements while at Eros corroborate most earlier calibration results, although there appears to be a small, gradual change in instrument dark current and flat field due to effects of aging in the space environment. The most pronounced change in instrument behavior, however, is a dramatic increase in scattered light due to contaminants accumulated on the optics during unscheduled fuel usage in December 1998. Procedures to accurately quantify and to remediate the scattered light are described in a companion paper (Li et al. 2002, Icarus155, 00-00). Acquisition of Eros measurements has clarified the relative, filter-to-filter, radiometric performance of the MSI. Absolute radiometric calibration appears very well constrained from flight measurements, with an accuracy of ∼5%. Pointing relative to the spacecraft coordinate system can be determined from the temperature of the spacecraft deck with an accuracy of ∼1 pixel.  相似文献   

The Chemical Quality of Self-Supplied Domestic Well Water in the United States     

Michael J. Focazio  Deborah Tipton  Stephanie Dunkle Shapiro  Linda H. Geiger 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2006,26(3):92-104

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Threat level green: Conceding ecology for security in eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mark Lawrence Schrad   《Global Environmental Change》2006,16(4):400-422

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the predicted scenarios of Central Asian water wars and catastrophic nuclear accidents have failed to materialize. However, the Aral Sea continues to shrink apace, and dangerous Soviet-built nuclear reactors have since proliferated in the former eastern bloc. These seemingly paradoxical outcomes can in part be attributed to the framing of these environmental issues as security matters by leading international regulatory, aid and lending institutions. Integrating these environmental concerns with the realist worldview of security studies systematically emphasized security dimensions at the expense of ecological concerns even amongst organizations distant from traditional defense affairs. This article proposes that international security strategy in this period is one of environmental appeasement defined as the systematic granting of ecologically unfriendly concessions in order to reduce short-term security risks. The article presents evidence that this appeasement strategy generated seemingly impressive results in terms of ameliorating short-term security risks, while actually exacerbating the underlying ecological situation. The article argues that while the foundational environmental risks remain unaddressed, the associated security threats have likewise not been ultimately resolved.  相似文献   

The influence of human activity in the Arctic on climate and climate impacts   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Henry P. Huntington  Michelle Boyle  Gwenn E. Flowers  John W. Weatherly  Lawrence C. Hamilton  Larry Hinzman  Craig Gerlach  Rommel Zulueta  Craig Nicolson  Jonathan Overpeck 《Climatic change》2007,82(1-2):77-92

Human activities in the Arctic are often mentioned as recipients of climate-change impacts. In this paper we consider the more complicated but more likely possibility that human activities themselves can interact with climate or environmental change in ways that either mitigate or exacerbate the human impacts. Although human activities in the Arctic are generally assumed to be modest, our analysis suggests that those activities may have larger influences on the arctic system than previously thought. Moreover, human influences could increase substantially in the near future. First, we illustrate how past human activities in the Arctic have combined with climatic variations to alter biophysical systems upon which fisheries and livestock depend. Second, we describe how current and future human activities could precipitate or affect the timing of major transitions in the arctic system. Past and future analyses both point to ways in which human activities in the Arctic can substantially influence the trajectory of arctic system change.  相似文献   

Parameterisation of orographic cloud dynamics in a GCM     

S. M. Dean  J. Flowerdew  B. N. Lawrence  S. D. Eckermann 《Climate Dynamics》2007,28(6):581-597

A new parameterisation is described that predicts the temperature perturbations due to sub-grid scale orographic gravity waves in the atmosphere of the 19 level HadAM3 version of the United Kingdom Met Office Unified Model. The explicit calculation of the wave phase allows the sign of the temperature perturbation to be predicted. The scheme is used to create orographic clouds, including cirrus, that were previously absent in model simulations. A novel approach to the validation of this parameterisation makes use of both satellite observations of a case study, and a simulation in which the Unified Model is nudged towards ERA-40 assimilated winds, temperatures and humidities. It is demonstrated that this approach offers a feasible way of introducing large scale orographic cirrus clouds into GCMs.  相似文献   

Nonrenewable resources in economic, social, and environmental sustainability     

Deborah J. Shields 《Natural Resources Research》1998,7(4):251-261

This paper reviews the linkages among energy and mineral resources and economic, social, and environmental sustainability. Nonrenewable resources are shown to be integral components of sustainability, regardless of which paradigmatic definition of the concept is invoked. Potential measures of the degree to which nonrenewable resources contribute to or detract from sustainability are presented. We conclude that a set of such measures should be incorporated in the comprehensive framework of sustainability currently being developed by the Federal government. National scale indicators could be presented within the structure of the seven criteria from the Santiago Declaration, whereas a life cycle or materials flow approach could be used when sustainability of specific resources is at issue.  相似文献