Integration of multiple soft data sets in MPS thru multinomial logistic regression: a case study of gas hydrates     

Hassan?RezaeeEmail author  Denis?Marcotte 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(7):1727-1745

A new approach is described to allow conditioning to both hard data (HD) and soft data for a patch- and distance-based multiple-point geostatistical simulation. The multinomial logistic regression is used to quantify the link between HD and soft data. The soft data is converted by the logistic regression classifier into as many probability fields as there are categories. The local category proportions are used and compared to the average category probabilities within the patch. The conditioning to HD is obtained using alternative training images and by imposing large relative weights to HD. The conditioning to soft data is obtained by measuring the probability–proportion patch distance. Both 2D and 3D cases are considered. Synthetic cases show that a stationary TI can generate non-stationary realizations reproducing the HD, keeping the texture indicated by the TI and following the trends identified in probability maps obtained from soft data. A real case study, the Mallik methane-hydrate field, shows perfect reproduction of HD while keeping a good reproduction of the TI texture and probability trends.  相似文献   

Intentional contamination of water distribution networks: developing indicators for sensitivity and vulnerability assessments     

Amir?NafiEmail author  Eric?Crastes  Rehan?Sadiq  Denis?Gilbert  Olivier?Piller 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(2):527-544

Performing a comprehensive risk analysis is primordial to ensure a reliable and sustainable water supply. Though the general framework of risk analysis is well established, specific adaptation seems needed for systems such as water distribution networks (WDN). Understanding of vulnerabilities of WDN against deliberate contamination and consumers’ sensitivity against contaminated water use is very vital to inform decision-maker. This paper presents an innovative step-by-step methodology for developing comprehensive indicators to perform sensitivity, vulnerability and criticality analyses in case of absence of early warning system (EWS). The assessment and the aggregation of these indicators with specific fuzzy operators allow identifying the most critical points in a WDN. Intentional intrusion of contaminants at these points can potentially harm both the consumers as well as water infrastructure. The implementation of the developed methodology has been demonstrated through a case study of a French WDN unequipped with sensors.  相似文献   

A New Appraisal of Sri Lankan BB Zircon as a Reference Material for LA‐ICP‐MS U‐Pb Geochronology and Lu‐Hf Isotope Tracing          下载免费PDF全文

Maristella M. Santos  Cristiano Lana  Ricardo Scholz  Ian Buick  Mark D. Schmitz  Sandra L. Kamo  Axel Gerdes  Fernando Corfu  Simon Tapster  Penelope Lancaster  Craig D. Storey  Miguel A.S. Basei  Eric Tohver  Ana Alkmim  Herminio Nalini  Klaus Krambrock  Cristiano Fantini  Michael Wiedenbeck 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2017,41(3):335-358

A potential zircon reference material (BB zircon) for laser ablation‐inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometry (LA‐ICP‐MS) U‐Pb geochronology and Hf isotope geochemistry is described. A batch of twenty zircon megacrysts (0.5–1.5 cm³) from Sri Lanka was studied. Within‐grain rare earth element (REE) compositions are largely homogeneous, albeit with some variation seen between fractured and homogeneous domains. Excluding fractured cathodoluminescence bright domains, the variation in U content for all analysed crystals ranged from 227 to 368 μg g^?1 and the average Th/U ratios were between 0.20 and 0.47. The Hf isotope composition (0.56–0.84 g/100 g Hf) is homogeneous within and between the grains – mean ¹⁷⁶Hf/¹⁷⁷Hf of 0.281674 ± 0.000018 (2s). The calculated alpha dose of 0.59 × 10¹⁸ g^?1 for a number of BB grains falls within the trend of previously studied, untreated zircon samples from Sri Lanka. Aliquots of the same crystal (analysed by ID‐TIMS in four different laboratories) gave consistent U‐Pb ages with excellent measurement reproducibility (0.1–0.4% RSD). Interlaboratory assessment (by LA‐ICP‐MS) from individual crystals returned results that are within uncertainty equivalent to the TIMS ages. Finally, we report on within‐ and between‐grain homogeneity of the oxygen isotope systematic of four BB crystals (13.16‰ VSMOW).  相似文献   

Assessing cave internal aerology in understanding carbon dioxide (CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>) dynamics: implications on calcite mass variation on the wall of Lascaux Cave (France)     

N. Houillon  R. Lastennet  A. Denis  P. Malaurent  S. Minvielle  N. Peyraube 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(4):170

Carbon dioxide gas is a key component in dissolution and precipitation of carbonates in karst and cave systems. Therefore, characterizing the internal aerology of a cave is essential to obtain the spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and CO₂ level. In this research, Lascaux Cave (France), an important adorned cavity, was studied. First, the spatiotemporal distribution of CO₂ and temperatures were examined using continuous monitoring at a per minute basis. High-resolution spatial measurements (14 PCO₂ locations and 27 locations for temperature) were carried out for a year in the epikarst and the cave (February 2015 to February 2016). The spatiotemporal analysis presents that air and rock temperatures vary for less than a degree Celsius (12.4–12.9 °C). These are controlled by the conduction of the external thermal waves through the overlying calcarenite massif. As a consequence, two seasonal internal aerologic regimes were identified: stratification and convection. These regimes govern the spatiotemporal distribution of the CO₂ levels (1.1–3.7%), showing that this parameter is a good natural marker of the internal air movements. Second, a method was proposed to estimate the calcite mass potentially affected by condensation water (dissolution process) and exfiltration water (precipitation process). This method, based on numerical simulations, relies on CO₂ and air and rock temperature spatiotemporal distributions in the cave. Third, the method was applied using the case of the left wall of the Hall of the Bulls (one of the most adorned part of the cave). Results showed that the calcite mass, possibly dissolved, varies from 0.0002 to 0.006 g when the mass potentially precipitated is higher (from 0.013 to 0.067 g) depending on the aerologic conditions. This method allows determining which alteration process (e.g., precipitation or dissolution) could eventually lead to the largest variation of calcite on the wall. The results can serve as useful data to the cave experts of the French Ministry of Culture and Communication in terms of Lascaux Cave management policies.  相似文献   

An Experimental High-Resolution Forecast System During the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games     

J. Mailhot  J. A. Milbrandt  A. Giguère  R. McTaggart-Cowan  A. Erfani  B. Denis  A. Glazer  M. Vallée 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2014,171(1-2):209-229

Environment Canada ran an experimental numerical weather prediction (NWP) system during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games, consisting of nested high-resolution (down to 1-km horizontal grid-spacing) configurations of the GEM–LAM model, with improved geophysical fields, cloud microphysics and radiative transfer schemes, and several new diagnostic products such as density of falling snow, visibility, and peak wind gust strength. The performance of this experimental NWP system has been evaluated in these winter conditions over complex terrain using the enhanced mesoscale observing network in place during the Olympics. As compared to the forecasts from the operational regional 15-km GEM model, objective verification generally indicated significant added value of the higher-resolution models for near-surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, and dewpoint temperature) with the 1-km model providing the best forecast accuracy. Appreciable errors were noted in all models for the forecasts of wind direction and humidity near the surface. Subjective assessment of several cases also indicated that the experimental Olympic system was skillful at forecasting meteorological phenomena at high-resolution, both spatially and temporally, and provided enhanced guidance to the Olympic forecasters in terms of better timing of precipitation phase change, squall line passage, wind flow channeling, and visibility reduction due to fog and snow.  相似文献   

Corrective pattern-matching simulation with controlled local-mean histogram   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Corentin Faucher  Antoine Saucier  Denis Marcotte 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(8):2027-2050

This paper presents a new stochastic simulation method that improves on our unilateral patchwork simulation method (Faucher et al., Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess, 27:253–273, 2012) by eliminating anisotropy biases. As in our unilateral method, images are built by assembling patterns together while controlling the local-mean histogram. The patterns, which are square image-pieces, are picked in a reference image. The reference image is used as a data bank holding the statistical informations about the random field to simulate. In contrast with the unilateral method, the path followed by our new simulation is random and guided by local errors. The new method, called corrective pattern-matching simulation, proceeds iteratively by making local corrections to the simulated image. For several types of images, it is shown that our simulations respect conditioning data and reproduce faithfully the reference image visual appearance. It is shown that the control of the local-mean histogram allows to control one-point statistics and multi-point statistics.  相似文献   

FEM × DEM modelling of cohesive granular materials: Numerical homogenisation and multi-scale simulations   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Trung Kien Nguyen  Gaël Combe  Denis Caillerie  Jacques Desrues 《Acta Geophysica》2014,62(5):1109-1126

The article presents a multi-scale modelling approach of cohesive granular materials, its numerical implementation and its results. At microscopic level, Discrete Element Method (DEM) is used to model dense grains packing. At the macroscopic level, the numerical solution is obtained by a Finite Element Method (FEM). In order to bridge the micro- and macro-scales, the concept of Representative Elementary Volume (REV) is applied, in which the average REV stress and the consistent tangent operators are obtained in each macroscopic integration point as the results of DEM’s simulation. In this way, the numerical constitutive law is determined through the detailed modelling of the microstructure, taking into account the nature of granular materials. We first elaborate the principle of the computation homogenisation (FEM × DEM), then demonstrate the features of our multiscale computation in terms of a biaxial compression test. Macroscopic strain location is observed and discussed.  相似文献   

An investigation of the SO₂ content of the venusian mesosphere using SPICAV-UV in nadir mode     

Emmanuel Marcq  Denis Belyaev  Anna Fedorova  Ann Carine Vandaele 《Icarus》2011,211(1):58-69

Using the SPICAV-UV spectrometer aboard Venus Express in nadir mode, we were able to derive spectral radiance factors in the middle atmosphere of Venus in the 170-320 nm range at a spectral resolution of R ? 200 during 2006 and 2007 in the northern hemisphere. By comparison with a radiative transfer model of the upper atmosphere of Venus, we could derive column abundance above the visible cloud top for SO₂ using its spectral absorption bands near 280 and 220 nm. SO₂ column densities show large temporal and spatial variations on a horizontal scale of a few hundred kilometers. Typical SO₂ column densities at low latitudes (up to 50°N) were found between 5 and 50 μm-atm, whereas in the northern polar region SO₂ content was usually below 5 μm-atm. The observed latitudinal variations follow closely the cloud top altitude derived by SPICAV-IR and are thought to be of dynamical origin. Also, a sudden increase of SO₂ column density in the whole northern hemisphere has been observed in early 2007, possibly related to a convective episode advecting some deep SO₂ into the upper atmosphere.  相似文献   

Contamination of port zone sediments by metals from Large Marine Ecosystems of Brazil     

Buruaem LM  Hortellani MA  Sarkis JE  Costa-Lotufo LV  Abessa DM 《Marine pollution bulletin》2012,64(3):479-488

Sediment contamination by metals poses risks to coastal ecosystems and is considered to be problematic to dredging operations. In Brazil, there are differences in sedimentology along the Large Marine Ecosystems in relation to the metal distributions. We aimed to assess the extent of Al, Fe, Hg, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn contamination in sediments from port zones in northeast (Mucuripe and Pecém) and southeast (Santos) Brazil through geochemical analyses and sediment quality ratings. The metal concentrations found in these port zones were higher than those observed in the continental shelf or the background values in both regions. In the northeast, metals were associated with carbonate, while in Santos, they were associated with mud. Geochemical analyses showed enrichments in Hg, Cd, Cu, Ni and Zn, and a simple application of international sediment quality guidelines failed to predict their impacts, whereas the use of site-specific values that were derived by geochemical and ecotoxicological approaches seemed to be more appropriate in the management of the dredged sediments.  相似文献   

The Influence of Topology on Hydraulic Conductivity in a Sand-and-Gravel Aquifer     

Roger H. Morin  Denis R. LeBlanc  Brent M. Troutman 《Ground water》2010,48(2):181-190

A field experiment consisting of geophysical logging and tracer testing was conducted in a single well that penetrated a sand-and-gravel aquifer at the U.S. Geological Survey Toxic Substances Hydrology research site on Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Geophysical logs and flowmeter/pumping measurements were obtained to estimate vertical profiles of porosity ϕ, hydraulic conductivity K, temperature, and bulk electrical conductivity under background, freshwater conditions. Saline-tracer fluid was then injected into the well for 2 h and its radial migration into the surrounding deposits was monitored by recording an electromagnetic-induction log every 10 min. The field data are analyzed and interpreted primarily through the use of Archie's (1942) law to investigate the role of topological factors such as pore geometry and connectivity, and grain size and packing configuration in regulating fluid flow through these coarse-grained materials. The logs reveal no significant correlation between K and ϕ, and imply that groundwater models that link these two properties may not be useful at this site. Rather, it is the distribution and connectivity of the fluid phase as defined by formation factor F, cementation index m, and tortuosity α that primarily control the hydraulic conductivity. Results show that F correlates well with K, thereby indicating that induction logs provide qualitative information on the distribution of hydraulic conductivity. A comparison of α, which incorporates porosity data, with K produces only a slightly better correlation and further emphasizes the weak influence of the bulk value of ϕ on K.  相似文献