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Loss estimation from future earthquakes is of growing importance in planning earthquake protection strategies in high-risk areas. Loss models based on the spectral displacement approach are now widely used because of generally acknowledged deficiencies in earlier approaches using macroseismic intensity or peak ground-motion parameters. However, there has been to date rather little earthquake damage data by which the new generation of models can be assessed and which can be used to calibrate the parameters involved. The availability of several detailed damage surveys carried out following the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake in Turkey, provides a rare opportunity for such an assessment. In this paper the losses which would be predicted from two different approaches to loss assessment – one using predicted macroseismic intensity, the other using the spectral displacement method – are compared with actual observed losses in the Kocaeli event at two different locations where surveys were carried out. One of these sites was very close to the surface fault rupture (< 3 km distance), the other at a distance of about 4.5 km. It is shown that the predictive methods available generally overestimated the losses at these distances, and a number of possible reasons for these discrepancies are considered. The sensitivity of loss estimates to variations in the key parameters governing the estimation in each case are explored, in particular with respect to modifications in the parameters of the attenuation relationships and the vulnerability parameters. The implications of these results for estimating future losses are discussed. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   
134.
The studies of turbulence decay were based in the past on measurements carried out in neutrally stratified wind tunnels and, more recently, on large-eddy simulation runs. Here the atmospheric turbulence decay process during the solar total eclipse of 11 August 1999 is examined. Thus a rapid transition from convective boundary-layer turbulence to that of a neutral or slightly stable one is considered. A u-v-w propeller anemometer and a fast response temperature sensor located in northern France on top of a 9-m mast recorded the turbulence observations. The measurements, in terms of turbulent kinetic energy decay with time, were found to be in good agreement with those prescribed by a theoretical model of turbulence decay recently proposed. In particular, it was found that the exponent of the power law describing the decay process has the value -2.  相似文献   
135.
Landslides, debris flows and stream floods are common natural processes inNorthern Italy. Their occurrence can be correctly assessed in space and timeonly through a sound basis of knowledge acquired by the scientific use of alarge number of historical documents. Over the last 30 years, the CNR IRPIInstitute of Turin has made archive data utilisation one of its main points ofscientific research, through the collection of hundreds of thousands of recordscontained in published and unpublished documents and historical reports onnatural damaging events over the last 500 years, particularly since XIX Century.The historical data, interpreted and selected on a scientific basis, have beenorganised in a database and utilised for landscape planning and hydrogeologicalprevention. In co-operation with public organisations, the IRPI Institute hassupplied information (type, location, magnitude, frequency and effects) abouthazardous events in Northern Italy. To give an example, in the last 4 yearsabout 4,500 failure events have been detected along the road network of theTurin Province and many debris flow, rockfall, landslide and flood events inthe Lombardy Region. These data are reported as points linked to the relevantevent-card on technical cartography (scale 1:10,000 or 1:25,000), so that theycan be immediately utilised either on paper or digitally (e.g., GIS, Arcview software).The present day elaboration of archival data permit the possible analytical applications for structural interventions in natural hazard remediation in built-up areas. In all cases, the results of research allow public awareness of natural danger and the correct layout of civil protection strategies.  相似文献   
136.
The January 10, 1997 Pozzano landslide, Sorrento Peninsula, Italy   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
From 1997 to 1999, a huge number of slides, often turning into extremely rapid debris-earth flows, repeatedly affected the late Quaternary volcaniclastic deposits mantling the carbonate slopes of Campania region, Italy. The Sorrento Peninsula was the epicentral district of the 1997 regional slope-instability crisis. Some hundred shallow mass movements took place during January 1997 in this area. These were the last episode of a long series of slope failure events dating back to mid-18th century. Results from geological and geomorphologic surveys are presented. Landslide mechanism and triggering factors are analysed for the most important mass movement, which occurred during the January 9-11, 1997, regional event. On January 10, 1997, at about 8:15 PM, a rainfall-induced debris slide-debris flow occurred at Pozzano (province of Naples), mainly affecting the 79 AD pyroclastic products. Following a J-path, the landslide destroyed a private house and invaded the State Road no. 145. This event resulted in four deaths, 22 persons injured and road closure for about 2 months. There was less than 200 mm of rainfall in the 72-h period prior to the landslide, although intense precipitation had occurred during a preceding 4-month period. However, the slope failure event was not preceded by an extreme short-term antecedent rainfall, as already noticed in previous landslides of this type in Campania. Finally, following a preliminary geotechnical characterization of volcaniclastic soils, a slope-stability back analysis was carried out, which adopted the classical infinite slope scheme. This analysis gave further evidence of the role played by pore pressure in reducing the overall shear strength of pyroclastic soils.  相似文献   
137.
This paper is an extension of a previous study, in which the principles of self-potential ground surface tomography were outlined. The new arguments which are here set forth are the proper accounting for the topographic effects and a robust approach to global 3D tomography. The 2D case is initially considered in order to facilitate a full understanding of the new method. In order to gauge the topographic distortions, the concepts of slope effect and surface regularization are introduced, as suitable means to compute point by point correction factors of the measured self-potential data, prior to the recognition of the tomographic images of the primary and induced electric sources underground. The tomographic approach is then developed by introducing again the concepts of the scanning function and of the charge occurrence probability function, which were amply dealt with in the previous paper. The new approach to 3D global tomography means here the composition of charge occurrence probability functions related to any two orthogonal surface components of the natural electric field, in order to account fully for the total surface component of the self-potential field and hence to elicit the greatest amount of information. Two field examples are presented to show the full effectiveness of the proposed method. They refer, respectively, to a near-surface investigation for archaeological purposes and to a very deep investigation in an active volcanic area.  相似文献   
138.
The Centroid-Moment Tensor technique is applied to 113 large earthquakes of the period 1977–1980, including all the shallow events with magnitude mb, Ms or ML 6.5. We use digital data recorded by the Global Digital Seismograph Network (GDSN) and International Deployment of Accelerometers (IDA) networks. Solutions are determined for three sequences of events close in time by inverting mantle wave data simultaneously for multiple sources.  相似文献   
139.
The late Hercynian tectonic evolution of the Calabria crust is characterized by peak metamorphic conditions up to 800 °C and 1000 MPa, and coeval mid‐crustal granitoid emplacement at 304–300 Ma. To check if a post‐collisional extensional framework, similar to that of other Hercynian massifs, can explain petrologic data, we model the pressure–temperature evolution of the crust during extension following granitoid emplacement. Model parameters are constrained by petrologic, geochemical and structural data. Computed PT paths are characterized by nearly isothermal decompression followed by isobaric cooling, which show a good fit to petrologic PT paths for duration of extension between 5 and 10 Ma. The model results, therefore, support an interpretation of the magmatic and metamorphic evolution of the Calabria crust in terms of the late Hercynian extension. In this framework, slab break‐off is a reasonable explanation for the common evolution of the southern European Hercynian massifs.  相似文献   
140.
A detailed density model of Mt. Etna and its surrounding areas has been evaluated using a 3-D inversion of the gravimetric data acquired in the 1980's. Several high-density and low-density bodies are found, penetrating from shallow depths as far down as 12 km bsl. A positive correlation (in terms of location, extent, density, and velocity) is established between several anomalies of the density model and features identified in previously published seismic tomographies. A prominent high-density body extending down to 7 km bsl is recognized in the southern part of the Valle del Bove, and interpreted as a solidified magmatic intrusion. On the western boundary of this anomaly, a low-density body is interpreted as a bubble and liquid magma mixture. Outside the central area, three other high-density anomalies are imaged and attributed to the earliest phases of volcanic activity in the area. Several interesting low-density anomalies are also identified and correlated with known fault lines and other structural features of the region.  相似文献   
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