Recent environmental changes on Banks Island (N.W.T., Canadian Arctic) quantified using fossil diatom assemblages     

Darlene S. S. Lim  John P. Smol  Marianne S. V. Douglas 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2008,40(1):385-398

Banks Island (N.W.T.) has become a focal point for climate change studies in the Canadian Arctic. However, long-term climatic and environmental data are very sparse from this large island, as they are for the entire southwestern region of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. In this paleolimnological study, diatom species assemblage shifts documented in cores collected from a pond and a lake on Banks Island were interpreted to represent a response to climate warming commencing in the nineteenth century. We found that, although the timing and overall nature of the species changes in the two cores were consistent, the signal was muted in the deeper site likely as a result of differences in ice cover extent and duration between lakes and ponds. A high-resolution study was also conducted from a second pond, at sub-decadal resolution, that only spanned the last ∼60 years. In the deeper lake site, Fragilaria construens and F. pinnata dominated the assemblages, similar to those noted in other high Arctic regions where lakes are characterized by extended ice cover. In contrast, Denticula kuetzingii dominated the shallower ponds and, in the case of the pond core representing the longer time period, this taxon increased in the post-1850 sediments, likely coincident with climate warming. In all cores, diatom assemblages became more diverse and Achnanthes species (particularly A. minutissima) increased from ∼1850 to the present, similar to changes documented in other Arctic regions. Beta diversity values calculated for the diatom species changes indicated that assemblage shifts in the Banks Island cores were of similar magnitude to those recorded in other Arctic regions with high species turnover, such as Ellesmere Island. A diatom-based Total Nitrogen (TN) transfer function previously developed for Banks Island was applied to the three ²¹⁰Pb dated cores as an exploratory tool for inferring past changes in nitrogen concentrations. In both the lake and pond cores, diatom-inferred TN concentrations tended to increase in the more recent sediments, as may be expected with warming; however these trends were not very distinct.  相似文献   

Fostering sustainable tribal economies in a time of climate change     

Maria Bargh  Sarsha‐Leigh Douglas  Annie Te One 《New Zealand geographer》2014,70(2):103-115

In this article, we explore how Māori tribal organisations are responding to calls by other Indigenous peoples to become more sustainable in a time of climate change. From a close examination of tribal Environmental Management Plans, we move to a specific case study in the Bay of Plenty area, Ngāti Kea/Ngāti Tuara. Ultimately, we suggest that many tribal organisations are seeking to respond to climate change and transition to becoming producers of their own food and energy needs, and are often articulating these responses in relation to specific local resources and contexts.  相似文献   

The Monitoring Network of the Vancouver 2010 Olympics   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Paul Joe  Bill Scott  Chris Doyle  George Isaac  Ismail Gultepe  Douglas Forsyth  Stewart Cober  Edwin Campos  Ivan Heckman  Norman Donaldson  David Hudak  Roy Rasmussen  Paul Kucera  Ron Stewart  Julie M. Thériault  Teresa Fisico  Kristen L. Rasmussen  Hannah Carmichael  Alex Laplante  Monika Bailey  Faisal Boudala 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2014,171(1-2):25-58

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Using Estimated Risk to Develop Stimulation Strategies for Enhanced Geothermal Systems     

John Douglas  Hideo Aochi 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2014,171(8):1847-1858

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) are an attractive source of low-carbon electricity and heating. Consequently, a number of tests of this technology have been made during the past couple of decades, and various projects are being planned or under development. EGS work by the injection of fluid into deep boreholes to increase permeability and hence allow the circulation and heating of fluid through a geothermal reservoir. Permeability is irreversibly increased by the generation of microseismicity through the shearing of pre-existing fractures or fault segments. One aspect of this technology that can cause public concern and consequently could limit the widespread adoption of EGS within populated areas is the risk of generating earthquakes that are sufficiently large to be felt (or even to cause building damage). Therefore, there is a need to balance stimulation and exploitation of the geothermal reservoir through fluid injection against the pressing requirement to keep the earthquake risk below an acceptable level. Current strategies to balance these potentially conflicting requirements rely on a traffic light system based on the observed magnitudes of the triggered earthquakes and the measured peak ground velocities from these events. In this article we propose an alternative system that uses the actual risk of generating felt (or damaging) earthquake ground motions at a site of interest (e.g. a nearby town) to control the injection rate. This risk is computed by combining characteristics of the observed seismicity of the previous 6 h with a (potentially site-specific) ground motion prediction equation to obtain a real-time seismic hazard curve; this is then convolved with the derivative of a (potentially site-specific) fragility curve. Based on the relation between computed risk and pre-defined acceptable risk thresholds, the injection is increased if the risk is below the amber level, decreased if the risk is between the amber and red levels, or stopped completely if the risk is above the red level. Based on simulations using a recently developed model of induced seismicity in geothermal systems, which is checked here using observations from the Basel EGS, in this article it is shown that the proposed procedure could lead to both acceptable levels of risk and increased permeability.  相似文献   

Observing Global Surface Water Flood Dynamics   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

Paul D. Bates  Jefferey C. Neal  Douglas Alsdorf  Guy J.-P. Schumann 《Surveys in Geophysics》2014,35(3):839-852

Flood waves moving along river systems are both a key determinant of globally important biogeochemical and ecological processes and, at particular times and particular places, a major environmental hazard. In developed countries, sophisticated observing networks and ancillary data, such as channel bathymetry and floodplain terrain, exist with which to understand and model floods. However, at global scales, satellite data currently provide the only means of undertaking such studies. At present, there is no satellite mission dedicated to observing surface water dynamics and, therefore, surface water scientists make use of a range of sensors developed for other purposes that are distinctly sub-optimal for the task in hand. Nevertheless, by careful combination of the data available from topographic mapping, oceanographic, cryospheric and geodetic satellites, progress in understanding some of the world’s major river, floodplain and wetland systems can be made. This paper reviews the surface water data sets available to hydrologists on a global scale and the recent progress made in the field. Further, the paper looks forward to the proposed NASA/CNES Surface Water Ocean Topography satellite mission that may for the first time provide an instrument that meets the needs of the hydrology community.  相似文献   

Phosphorus Sorption and Availability from Biochars and Soil/Biochar Mixtures   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

Rajesh Chintala  Thomas E. Schumacher  Louis M. McDonald  David E. Clay  Douglas D. Malo  Sharon K. Papiernik  Sharon A. Clay  James L. Julson 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2014,42(5):626-634

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Special issue in memory of Nicholas Ambraseys     

John Douglas  Atilla Ansal 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(1):1-3

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Toward a ground-motion logic tree for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Europe   总被引：9，自引：2，他引：7  

Elise Delavaud  Fabrice Cotton  Sinan Akkar  Frank Scherbaum  Laurentiu Danciu  Céline Beauval  Stéphane Drouet  John Douglas  Roberto Basili  M. Abdullah Sandikkaya  Margaret Segou  Ezio Faccioli  Nikos Theodoulidis 《Journal of Seismology》2012,16(3):451-473

The Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) project, which began in June 2009, aims at establishing new standards for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the Euro-Mediterranean region. In this context, a logic tree for ground-motion prediction in Europe has been constructed. Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and weights have been determined so that the logic tree captures epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction for six different tectonic regimes in Europe. Here we present the strategy that we adopted to build such a logic tree. This strategy has the particularity of combining two complementary and independent approaches: expert judgment and data testing. A set of six experts was asked to weight pre-selected GMPEs while the ability of these GMPEs to predict available data was evaluated with the method of Scherbaum et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 99:3234?C3247, 2009). Results of both approaches were taken into account to commonly select the smallest set of GMPEs to capture the uncertainty in ground-motion prediction in Europe. For stable continental regions, two models, both from eastern North America, have been selected for shields, and three GMPEs from active shallow crustal regions have been added for continental crust. For subduction zones, four models, all non-European, have been chosen. Finally, for active shallow crustal regions, we selected four models, each of them from a different host region but only two of them were kept for long periods. In most cases, a common agreement has been also reached for the weights. In case of divergence, a sensitivity analysis of the weights on the seismic hazard has been conducted, showing that once the GMPEs have been selected, the associated set of weights has a smaller influence on the hazard.  相似文献   

Mass Discharge in a Tracer Plume: Evaluation of the Theissen Polygon Method     

Douglas M. Mackay  Murray D. Einarson  Phil M. Kaiser  Mamie Nozawa‐Inoue  Sham Goyal  Irina Chakraborty  Ehsan Rasa  Kate M. Scow 《Ground water》2012,50(6):895-907

A tracer plume was created within a thin aquifer by injection for 299 d of two adjacent “sub‐plumes” to represent one type of plume heterogeneity encountered in practice. The plume was monitored by snapshot sampling of transects of fully screened wells. The mass injection rate and total mass injected were known. Using all wells in each transect (0.77 m well spacing, 1.4 points/m² sampling density), the Theissen Polygon Method (TPM) yielded apparently accurate mass discharge (M_d) estimates at three transects for 12 snapshots. When applied to hypothetical sparser transects using subsets of the wells with average spacing and sampling density from 1.55 to 5.39 m and 0.70 to 0.20 points/m², respectively, the TPM accuracy depended on well spacing and location of the wells in the hypothesized transect with respect to the sub‐plumes. Potential error was relatively low when the well spacing was less than the widths of the sub‐plumes (>0.35 points/m²). Potential error increased for well spacing similar to or greater than the sub‐plume widths, or when less than 1% of the plume area was sampled. For low density sampling of laterally heterogeneous plumes, small changes in groundwater flow direction can lead to wide fluctuations in M_d estimates by the TPM. However, sampling conducted when flow is known or likely to be in a preferred direction can potentially allow more useful comparisons of M_d over multiyear time frames, such as required for performance evaluation of natural attenuation or engineered remediation systems.  相似文献   

Operational earthquake forecasting in Europe: progress,despite challenges     

J. Douglas Zechar  Warner Marzocchi  Stefan Wiemer 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2016,14(9):2459-2469

Is Europe-wide operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) possible? We discuss the myriad problems that prevent it today, many of which relate to heterogeneities in earthquake recording, processing, and reporting. We contemplate the difficulty of building models that cross political boundaries, and we consider the prospect of European OEF in light of recent efforts to harmonize long-term seismic hazard assessment among several nations. Emphasizing the Strategies and Tools for Real-time Earthquake Risk Reduction (REAKT) project, we report achievements related to short-term seismicity forecasting in Iceland and Italy that could apply elsewhere in Europe. In Iceland, collaboration fostered by REAKT resulted in a revised earthquake catalog and a prototype OEF system. We report results from an experiment conducted with this prototype; these results suggest ensemble models provide an information gain, updating models more frequently improves their forecast skill, and that OEF is computationally feasible. In Italy, REAKT supported the creation of an ensemble model that now issues weekly hazard forecasts. We present examples of these forecasts, highlighting the problem that OEF often yields low probabilities, which are difficult to interpret and convert into actionable decisions. Motivated by such low hazard probabilities, we highlight Europe’s pioneering efforts in operational earthquake loss forecasting and mention solutions to problems that currently prevent OEF at the European scale.  相似文献