Potential for growing Arabica coffee in the extreme south of Brazil in a warmer world   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jurandir Zullo Jr.  Hilton Silveira Pinto  Eduardo Delgado Assad  Ana Maria Heuminski de ??vila 《Climatic change》2011,109(3-4):535-548

Agriculture appears to be one of the human activities most vulnerable to climatic changes due to its large dependence on environmental conditions. However, the diversity of Brazilian environmental conditions could be of great advantage to adapting this sector to new climatic conditions, which should be assessed as in this study on shifting Arabica coffee cultivation to the extreme south of the country. The methodology applied is the same the one used to define climatic risks in current productive regions of Brazil and their vulnerability to climatic change predicted by IPCC reports. The basic climatic parameters applied were frost probability and annual average temperature, since annual water deficit did not prove to be a restricting factor for Arabica coffee cultivation in the study area. The climatic conditions suitable for coffee production are: annual average temperature between 18??C and 22??C, annual water deficit less than 100?mm and frost probability (risk of lowest annual temperature less than 1??C) less than 25%. An area is said to have ??low climatic risks?? for coffee production when these three climatic conditions are met. Current climatic conditions were used and simulations of four temperature increases between 1??C and 4??C were also performed. The results indicated a substantial increase in the size of low climatic risks areas for the production of Arabica coffee in the extreme south of Brazil, mainly for mean temperature increases of 3??C in the study area in relation to present conditions. Increases of 2??C and 4??C were also favorable, but not as good as those obtained for 3??C. It should be underscored that areas with low climatic risks will be able to be found mainly in the extreme south of the study region, the border with Uruguay and North of Argentina.  相似文献   

Assessing the performance of a foraminifera-based transfer function to estimate sea-level changes in northern Portugal     

Eduardo Leorri  Francisco Fatela  João Moreno  Teresa Drago 《Quaternary Research》2011,75(1):278-287

We assessed the performance of a transfer function model for sea-level studies using salt-marsh foraminifera from two estuaries of northern Portugal. An independent data set of 12 samples and 13 sub-fossil samples from a core were used to evaluate if reconstructions and errors derived from current models are adequate. Initial transfer function models provided very strong results as indicated by cross-validation (component 2; r² = 0.80-0.82; RMSEP ranged from 10.7 to 12.3 cm) and improved its performance by ca. 10% when sample size reached ca. 50. Results derived using an independent test data set indicate that cross-validation is a very effective approach and produces conservative errors when compared to observed errors. We additionally explored the possible effect of transforming the concentration data into percent in the error estimations by comparing the results obtained based on the use of both concentration and compositional data. Results indicate that this type of transformation does not affect the performance of the transfer function. Results derived from a reconstruction of sub-fossil samples from a core indicate that high-resolution sea-level reconstructions are possible, but show that depositional environments have to be selected carefully in order to minimize the impact of possible taphonomical loss.  相似文献   

The application of foraminifera to reconstruct the rate of 20th century sea level rise, Morbihan Golfe, Brittany, France     

Veronica Rossi  Benjamin P. Horton  Eduardo Leorri  Bruce C. Douglas 《Quaternary Research》2011,75(1):24-35

Foraminiferal assemblages preserved within salt-marsh sediment can provide an accurate and precise means to reconstruct relative sea level due to a strong relationship with elevation, which can be quantified using a transfer function. We collected a set of surface samples from two salt marshes in the Morbihan Golfe, France to determine foraminiferal distribution patterns. Dominant taxa included Jadammina macrescens, Trochammina inflata, Haplophragmoides spp. and Miliammina fusca. We developed a foraminifera-based transfer function using a modern training set of 36 samples and 23 species. The strong relationship between observed and predicted values (r²_jack = 0.7) indicated that foraminiferal distribution is primarily controlled by elevation with respect to the tidal frame and precise reconstructions of former sea level are possible (RMSEP_jack = 0.07 m). The application of the transfer function to a short salt-marsh core (0.32 m) allowed the reconstruction of former sea levels, which were placed in a chronological framework using short-lived radionuclides (²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs). The agreement between the foraminifera-based sea level curve and the Brest tide-gauge record confirms the reliability of transfer function estimates and the validity of this methodology to extend sea level reconstructions back into the pre-instrumental period. Both instrumental and microfossil records suggest an acceleration of sea level rise during the 20th century.  相似文献   

Palaeoenvironmental analysis of Cenomanian-Turonian dinocyst assemblages from the Castilian Platform (Northern-Central Spain)     

Daniel Peyrot  Fernando Barroso-Barcenilla  Eduardo BarrónMaría José Comas-Rengifo 《Cretaceous Research》2011,32(4):504-526

The palynological assemblages from three Cenomanian-Turonian sections from the Castilian Platform are described. The 49 levels analysed yielded a well-diversified palynological content including dinoflagellate cysts, acritarchs, prasinophytes and miospores. The comparison of the terrestrial and marine assemblages from these three sections reveals significant differences that are mainly related to their relative palaeogeographical locations. The quantitative study performed on dinocyst assemblages suggests an association interpreted as inner neritic including Xenascus ceratioides, Cribroperidinium exilicristatum, Canningia reticulata and Kallosphaeridium? ringnesiorum. On the contrary, the group inferred to show outer neritic preferences is integrated by Palaeohystrichophora infusorioides, Spiniferites spp., Odontochitina spp., Trichodinium castanea and Impletosphaeridium polytrichum. In the Castilian Platform, the Cenomanian-Turonian Boundary Event (CTBE) may be manifested by a higher proportion of Cyclonephelium spp. in the distal dinocyst assemblages.  相似文献   

Modeling aquifer�Criver interactions under the influence of groundwater abstraction in the Mancha Oriental System (SE Spain)     

David Sanz  Santiago Casta?o  Eduardo Cassiraga  Andr��s Sahuquillo  Juan Jos�� G��mez-Alday  Salvador Pe?a  Alfonso Calera 《Hydrogeology Journal》2011,19(2):475-487

The Mancha Oriental System (MOS, 7,260?km²) is one of the largest aquifers within Spain, and is encompassed by the Jucar River Basin. Over the past 30?years, socioeconomic development within the region has been largely due to intensive use of groundwater resources for irrigating crops (1,000?km²). Groundwater pumping (406 million m³/year) has provoked a steady drop in the groundwater level and a reduction of MOS discharge to the Jucar River. The study aims to characterize the river?Caquifer relationship, to determine the influence that groundwater abstraction has on the river discharge. This research has advanced a three-dimensional large-scale numerical groundwater-flow model (MODFLOW 2000) in order to spatially and temporally evaluate, quantify and predict the river?Caquifer interactions that are influenced by groundwater abstraction in MOS. It is demonstrated that although groundwater abstraction increased considerably from the early 1980s to 2000, the depletion of water stored in the aquifer was lower than might be expected. This is mainly due to aquifer recharge from the Jucar River, induced by groundwater abstraction. The area of disconnection between the river and the water table (i.e. where groundwater head is lower than the riverbed) is found to have spread 20?km downstream from its position before pumping started.  相似文献   

Use of riverine through reef habitat systems by dog snapper (Lutjanus jocu) in eastern Brazil     

Rodrigo L. Moura  Ronaldo B. Francini-Filho  Eduardo M. Chaves  Carolina V. Minte-Vera  Kenyon C. Lindeman 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2011

The early life history of Western Atlantic snappers from the Southern hemisphere is largely unknown. Habitat use of different life stages (i.e. size categories) of the dog snapper (Lutjanus jocu) was examined across the largest South Atlantic reef–estuarine complex (Abrolhos Shelf, Brazil, 16–19° S). Visual surveys were conducted in different habitats across the shelf (estuary, inner-shelf reefs and mid-shelf reefs). Lutjanus jocu showed higher densities on inner-shelf habitats, with a clear increase in fish size across the shelf. Individuals <7 cm were associated with both the estuary (mangrove and rocky habitats) and inner-shelf reefs (particularly shallow fore-reefs and tide pools). Individuals ranging 10–30 cm were broadly distributed, but consistently more abundant on inner-shelf reefs. Individuals between 30 and 40 cm were more common on mid-shelf reefs, while individuals >40 cm were recorded only on mid-shelf reefs. Literature data indicate that individuals ranging 70–80 cm are common on deep offshore reefs. This pattern suggests that the dog snapper performs ontogenetic cross-shelf migrations. Protecting portions of the different habitats used by the dog snapper during its post-settlement life cycle is highlighted as an important conservation and management measure.  相似文献   

Oscillations of thick accretion discs around black holes – II     

Eduardo Rubio-Herrera  William H. Lee 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,362(3):789-798

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Comments on ‘The Reissner–Sagoci problem for a transversely isotropic half‐space’ by A. K. Ghorbani‐Tanha and M. Eskandari‐Ghadi,International Journal for Numerical and Analytical Methods in Geomechanics 2006; 30(11):1063–1074     

Eduardo Kausel 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2008,32(11):1427-1428

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Ages and metallicities of eight star clusters and their surrounding fields in the inner disc of the Large Magellanic Cloud     

Doug Geisler  rés E. Piatti  Eduardo Bica  Juan J. Clariá 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,341(3):771-784

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Local ecological knowledge and the management of marine protected areas in Brazil     

Leopoldo C. Gerhardinger  Eduardo A.S. Godoy  Peter J.S. Jones 《Ocean & Coastal Management》2009,52(3-4):154-165

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