Seismic risk assessment considering cumulative damage due to aftershocks          下载免费PDF全文

Fatemeh Jalayer  Hossein Ebrahimian 《地震工程与结构动力学》2017,46(3):369-389

Calculating the limit state (LS) exceedance probability for a structure considering the main seismic event and the triggered aftershocks (AS) is complicated both by the time‐dependent rate of aftershock occurrence and also by the cumulative damage caused by the sequence of events. Taking advantage of a methodology developed previously by the authors for post‐mainshock (MS) risk assessment, the LS probability due to a sequence of mainshock and the triggered aftershocks is calculated for a given aftershock forecasting time window. The proposed formulation takes into account both the time‐dependent rate of aftershock occurrence and also the damage accumulation due to the triggered aftershocks. It is demonstrated that an existing reinforced concrete moment‐resisting frame with infills subjected to the main event and the triggered sequence exceeds the near‐collapse LS. On the other hand, the structure does not reach the onset of near‐collapse LS when the effect of triggered aftershocks is not considered. It is shown, based on simplifying assumptions, that the derived formulation yields asymptotically to the same Poisson‐type functional form used when the cumulative damage is not being considered. This leads to a range of approximate solutions by substituting the fragilities calculated for intact, MS‐damaged, and MS‐plus‐one‐AS‐damaged structures in the asymptotic simplified formulation. The latter two approximate solutions provide good agreement with the derived formulation. Even when the fragility of intact structure is employed, the approximate solution (considering only the time‐dependent rate of aftershock occurrence) leads to higher risk estimates compared with those obtained based on only the mainshock. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

From flood risk mapping toward reducing vulnerability: the case of Addis Ababa     

De Risi  Raffaele  Jalayer  Fatemeh  De Paola  Francesco  Carozza  Stefano  Yonas  Nebyou  Giugni  Maurizio  Gasparini  Paolo 《Natural Hazards》2020,100(1):387-415

Natural Hazards - Flood risk maps for the built environment can be obtained by integrating geo-spatial information on hazard, vulnerability and exposure. They provide precious support for strategic...  相似文献   

Zircon U–Pb geochronology,major-trace elements and Sr–Nd isotope geochemistry of Mashhad granodiorites (NE Iran) and their mafic microgranular enclaves: evidence for magma mixing and mingling     

Maryam Deyhimi  Ali Kananian  Fatemeh Sepidbar  Ivan Vlastelic  Jean-Louis Paquette 《International Geology Review》2020,62(13-14):1615-1634

ABSTRACT

Mashhad granitoids and associated mafic microgranular enclaves (MMEs), in NE Iran record late early Mesozoic magmatism, was related to the Palaeo-Tethys closure and Iran-Eurasia collision. These represent ideal rocks to explore magmatic processes associated with Late Triassic closure of the Palaeo-Tethyan ocean and post-collisional magmatism. In this study, new geochronological data, whole-rock geochemistry, and Sr–Nd isotope data are presented for Mashhad granitoids and MMEs. LA–ICP–MS U–Pb dating of zircon yields crystallization ages of 205.0 ± 1.3 Ma for the MMEs, indicating their formation during the Late Triassic. This age is similar to the host granitoids. Our results including the major and trace elements discrimination diagrams, in combination with field and petrographic observations (such as ellipsoidal MMEs with feldspar megacrysts, disequilibrium textures of plagioclase), as well as mineral chemistry, suggest that MMEs formed by mixing of mafic and felsic magmas. The host granodiorite is a felsic, high K calc-alkaline I-type granitoid, with SiO₂ = 67.5–69.4 wt%, high K₂O (2.4–4.2 wt%), and low Mg# (42.5–50.5). Normalized abundances of LREEs and LILEs are enriched relative to HREEs and HFSEs (e.g. Nb, Ti). Negative values of whole-rock εNd_(t) (?3 to ?2.3) from granitoids indicate that the precursor magma was generated by partial melting of enriched lithospheric mantle with some contributions from old lower continental crust. In the MMEs, SiO₂ (53.4–58.2 wt%) is lower and Ni (3.9–49.7 ppm), Cr (0.8–93.9 ppm), Mg# (42.81–62.84), and εNd_(t) (?2.3 to +1.4) are higher than those in the host granodiorite, suggesting a greater contribution of mantle-derived mafic melts in the genesis of MMEs.  相似文献   

Characterizing Water Flow in Vegetated Lysimeters with Stable Water Isotopes and Modeling     

Fatemeh Shajari  Florian Einsiedl  Arno Rein 《Ground water》2020,58(5):759-770

We have used stable water isotopes (δ¹⁸O, δ²H) in combination with lumped-parameter modeling for characterizing unsaturated flow in two lysimeters vegetated with maize. The lysimeters contained undisturbed soil cores dominated by sandy gravel (Ly1) and clayey sandy silt (Ly2). Stable water isotopes were analyzed in precipitation and lysimeter outflow water over about 3 years. The mean transit time of water T and dispersion parameter P_D, obtained from modeling, were higher for the silt soil in Ly2 than for the gravel soil in Ly1 (T of 362 vs. 129 d, P_D of 0.7 vs. 0.12). The consideration of preferential flow (PF) paths could substantially improve the model curve fits, with 13 and 11% contribution of PF for Ly1 and Ly2 as best estimates. Different assumptions were compared to estimate the input function, that is, stable water isotope content in the recharging water. Using the isotopic composition of precipitation as input (no modification) resulted in reasonable model estimations. Best model fits for the entire observation were obtained by weighting the recharging isotopes according to average precipitation within periods of 3 and 6 months, in correspondence to changing vegetation phases and seasonal influences. Input functions that consider actual evapotranspiration could significantly improve modeling at some periods, however, this led to deviations between modeled and observed δ¹⁸O at other periods. This may indicate the influence of variable flow, so that dividing the whole observation period into hydraulically characteristic sub-periods for lumped-parameter modeling (which implements steady-state flow) is recommended for possible further improvement.  相似文献   

Considering potential seismic sources in earthquake hazard assessment for Northern Iran     

Gholamreza Abdollahzadeh  Mohammad Sazjini  Mohsen Shahaky  Fatemeh Zahedi Tajrishi  Leila Khanmohammadi 《Journal of Seismology》2014,18(3):357-369

Located on the Alpine-Himalayan earthquake belt, Iran is one of the seismically active regions of the world. Northern Iran, south of Caspian Basin, a hazardous subduction zone, is a densely populated and developing area of the country. Historical and instrumental documented seismicity indicates the occurrence of severe earthquakes leading to many deaths and large losses in the region. With growth of seismological and tectonic data, updated seismic hazard assessment is a worthwhile issue in emergency management programs and long-term developing plans in urban and rural areas of this region. In the present study, being armed with up-to-date information required for seismic hazard assessment including geological data and active tectonic setting for thorough investigation of the active and potential seismogenic sources, and historical and instrumental events for compiling the earthquake catalogue, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is carried out for the region using three recent ground motion prediction equations. The logic tree method is utilized to capture epistemic uncertainty of the seismic hazard assessment in delineation of the seismic sources and selection of attenuation relations. The results are compared to a recent practice in code-prescribed seismic hazard of the region and are discussed in detail to explore their variation in each branch of logic tree approach. Also, seismic hazard maps of peak ground acceleration in rock site for 475- and 2,475-year return periods are provided for the region.  相似文献   

High-resolution coastal hazard assessment along the French Riviera from co-seismic tsunamis generated in the Ligurian fault system     

Nemati  Fatemeh  Grilli  Stephan T.  Ioualalen  Mansour  Boschetti  Laurie  Larroque  Christophe  Trevisan  Jenny 《Natural Hazards》2019,96(2):553-586

Natural Hazards - The French Riviera is a densely populated and touristic coast. It is also one of the most seismically active areas of the Western Mediterranean. This is evidenced by the Mw...  相似文献   

Analysis of karst spring recession curves,west of Iran     

Rahim Bagheri  Hadi Jafari  Aliakbar Momeni  Fatemeh Bagheri 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(19):731

The recession hydrographs of karst springs provide important information about aquifer characteristics such as storage properties and drainage potential, karstification degree, and other hydrological features. The Faresban, Famaasb, Gonbad-e-Kabood, and Gian springs are the important karst springs which drain main karst aquifers in west of Iran. In this study, we evaluate hydrological characteristics of these four karst springs using different analytic equations. Almost, all the recession curves were well fitted by a function that consists of three main exponential terms. The initial portion of the recession curve represents the fast drainage of large fractures and conduits, ending with the slowly decreasing curve, where the drainage of rock matrix and small fissures or baseflow is dominant. The Gian spring has the largest storage volume but the lowest drained water (7%). Using Mangin’s equation, it is apparent that the baseflow supplies over 85% of the total drained water to the Gian spring, while a small quantity of total outflow is made up of quickflow periods. Of the water available to the Famaasb, Faresban, and Gonbad-e-Kabood springs, 85, 80, and 70% are drained during period of baseflow, respectively, whereas the quickflow periods have minor importance in some springs. Based on the Coutagne’s equation results, it can be concluded that the catchment of the Famaasb and Gonbad-e-Kabood springs have a karstified saturation zone with drainage channels that provide a rapid discharge with little storage capacity. At Gian catchment area, the initial discharge is not as rapid as karstification but is fairly homogeneous throughout the aquifer.  相似文献   

The Gol-e-Zard Zn-Pb Deposit,Lorestan Province,Iran: a Metamorphosed SEDEX Deposit     

Alireza ZARASVANDI  Mona SAMETI  Martiya SADEGHI  Fatemeh RASTMANESH  Hooshang POURKASEB 《《地质学报》英文版》2014,88(1):142-152

The Gol-e-Zard Zn-Pb deposit is one of several sediment-hosted Zn-Pb deposits found in the central part of the Sanadaj-Sirjan Zone, known as the Isfahan-Malayer belt, western Iran. Mineralization occurs in Upper Triassic to Jurassic phyllites and meta-sandstones. Sphalerite and galena are the most abundant metallic ores, with minor chalcopyrite. Calcite and quartz are the main gangue minerals. Fissure filling, replacement textures and especially mineralized faults, suggest an epigenetic stage in the Gol-e-Zard deposit formation. Geochemical studies of mineralized rocks show high concentrations of Zn, Pb and Cu, (Zn and Pb > 10000 ppm and Cu average 3000 ppm). LREE enrichment (LREE>HREE, La/Lu average 1.44) and positive Eu anomalies (Eu/Eu*>1 average 1.67) indicate reducing conditions during the deposition of deposit. However, some samples do not display negative Ce anomalies, which indicate that localized oxidizing conditions are also present. This study indicates that the Gol-e-Zard deposit formed due to circulating hydrothermal fluids in a marine environment. A SEDEX-type genesis, which is defined by circulating hydrothermal fluids through sediments in a marine environment, and syngenetic precipitation of Zn and Pb sulphides, is suggested for the Gol-e-Zard deposit. Emplacement of some granitoid intrusions such as the Aligudarz granitoid intrusion remobilized mineralizing fluids and metamorphosed the Gol-e-Zard deposit.  相似文献   

Probabilistic GIS-based method for delineation of urban flooding risk hotspots   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

Fatemeh Jalayer  Raffaele De Risi  Francesco De Paola  Maurizio Giugni  Gaetano Manfredi  Paolo Gasparini  Maria Elena Topa  Nebyou Yonas  Kumelachew Yeshitela  Alemu Nebebe  Gina Cavan  Sarah Lindley  Andreas Printz  Florian Renner 《Natural Hazards》2014,73(2):975-1001

Identifying urban flooding risk hotspots is one of the first steps in an integrated methodology for urban flood risk assessment and mitigation. This work employs three GIS-based frameworks for identifying urban flooding risk hotspots for residential buildings and urban corridors. This is done by overlaying a map of potentially flood-prone areas [estimated through the topographic wetness index (TWI)], a map of residential areas and urban corridors [extracted from a city-wide assessment of urban morphology types (UMT)], and a geo-spatial census dataset. A maximum likelihood method (MLE) is employed for estimating the threshold used for identifying the flood-prone areas (the TWI threshold) based on the inundation profiles calculated for various return periods within a given spatial window. Furthermore, Bayesian parameter estimation is employed in order to estimate the TWI threshold based on inundation profiles calculated for more than one spatial window. For different statistics of the TWI threshold (e.g. MLE estimate, 16th percentile, 50th percentile), the map of the potentially flood-prone areas is overlaid with the map of urban morphology units, identified as residential and urban corridors, in order to delineate the urban hotspots for both UMT. Moreover, information related to population density is integrated by overlaying geo-spatial census datasets in order to estimate the number of people affected by flooding. Differences in exposure characteristics have been assessed for a range of different residential types. As a demonstration, urban flooding risk hotspots are delineated for different percentiles of the TWI value for the city of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.  相似文献