Analysis of historical landslide time series in the Emilia‐Romagna region,northern Italy     

Mauro Rossi  Annette Witt  Fausto Guzzetti  Bruce D. Malamud  Silvia Peruccacci 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2010,35(10):1123-1137

A catalogue of historical landslides, 1951–2002, for three provinces in the Emilia‐Romagna region of northern Italy is presented and its statistical properties studied. The catalogue consists of 2255 reported landslides and is based on historical archives and chronicles. We use two measures for the intensity of landsliding over time: (i) the number of reported landslides in a day (D_L) and (ii) the number of reported landslides in an event (S_event), where an event is one or more consecutive days with landsliding. From 1951–2002 in our study area there were 1057 days with 1 ≤ D_L ≤?45 landslides per day, and 596 events with 1 ≤ S_event ≤ 129 landslides per event. In the first set of analyses, we find that the probability density of landslide intensities in the time series are power‐law distributed over at least two‐orders of magnitude, with exponent of about ?2·0. Although our data is a proxy for landsliding built from newspaper reports, it is the first tentative evidence that the frequency‐size of triggered landslide events over time (not just the landslides in a given triggered event), like earthquakes, scale as a power‐law or other heavy‐tailed distributions. If confirmed, this could have important implications for risk assessment and erosion modelling in a given area. In our second set of analyses, we find that for short antecedent rainfall periods, the minimum amount of rainfall necessary to trigger landslides varies considerably with the intensity of the landsliding (D_L and S_event); whereas for long antecedent periods the magnitude is largely independent of the cumulative amount of rainfall, and the largest values of landslide intensity are always preceded by abundant rainfall. Further, the analysis of the rainfall trend suggests that the trigger of landslides in the study area is related to seasonal rainfall. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Improvement of HVSR technique by wavelet analysis     

Roberto Carniel  Petra Malisan  Fausto Barazza  Stefano Grimaz 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2008,28(4):321-327

In this work we investigate the application of the wavelet analysis to improve the well-known horizontal to vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) technique for site effect estimation. Wavelet analysis has been widely used in the last decade for its capacity to localise the signal in both the time and frequency domains. The wavelet packet transform and the evaluation of a cost function for every node permit one to remove from the signal the least important components and lead to significant improvements in the identification of the fundamental frequency. In this paper a new algorithm is presented based on wavelet analysis, that allows, in some cases, to improve the identification of the peak in the QTS ratio. A number of examples of application are also presented.  相似文献   

Landslide distribution and size in response to Quaternary fault activity: the Peloritani Range,NE Sicily,Italy          下载免费PDF全文

Francesco Bucci  Michele Santangelo  Mauro Cardinali  Federica Fiorucci  Fausto Guzzetti 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2016,41(5):711-720

Landslides contribute to dismantle active mountain ranges and faults control the location of landslides. Yet, evidence of the long‐term, regional dependency of landslides on active faults is limited. Previous studies focused on the transient effects of earthquakes on slope stability in compressive and transcurrent regimes. Here we show that in the Peloritani range, NE Sicily, Italy, one of the fastest uplifting areas in the Mediterranean, a clear geographical association exists between large bedrock landslides and active normal faults of the Messina Straits graben. By interpreting aerial photographs, we mapped 1590 landslides and sackungs and 626 fault elements and their facets in a 300 km² area in the eastern part of the range. We used the new landslide and fault information, in combination with prior geological and seismic information, to investigate the association between bedrock landslides and faults. We find that the distribution and abundance of landslides is related to the presence of large active normal faults, and matches the pattern of the local historical seismicity. Landslide material is more abundant along the East Peloritani Fault System where the long‐term activity of the faults, measured by the average yearly geological moment rate, is larger than in the West Peloritani Fault System where landslides are less abundant. Along the fault systems landslide material concentrates where the cumulated fault throws are largest. We conclude that large landslides and their cumulated volume are sensitive to local rates of tectonic deformation, and discriminate the deformation of the single fault segments that dissect the Peloritani range. Our findings are a direct test of landscape evolution models that predict higher rates of landslide activity near active faults. Our work opens up the possibility of exploiting accurate landslide and fault maps, in combination with geological and seismic information, to characterize the long‐term seismic history of poorly instrumented active regions. © 2015 The Authors Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd  相似文献   

Some remarks on the assessment of P-wave velocity in laboratory tests for evaluating the degree of saturation     

Astuto  Giuseppe  Molina-Gómez  Fausto  Bilotta  Emilio  Viana da Fonseca  António  Flora  Alessandro 《Acta Geotechnica》2023,18(2):777-790

Acta Geotechnica - This work stems from the need to validate a technique for a reliably measurement of the degree of saturation (Sr) in deposits composed of sandy soils to improve their...  相似文献   

A method for the assessment of the influence of bedding on landslide abundance and types     

Michele Santangelo  Ivan Marchesini  Mauro Cardinali  Federica Fiorucci  Mauro Rossi  Francesco Bucci  Fausto Guzzetti 《Landslides》2015,12(2):295-309

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Macro benthic community assemblage before and after the 2007 tsunami and earthquake at Paracas Bay,Peru     

Betina J. Lomovasky  Fausto N. Firstater  Alex Gamarra Salazar  Jaime Mendo  Oscar O. Iribarne 《Journal of Sea Research》2011,65(2):205-212

Macrobenthic soft bottom community assemblages were studied from December 2006 to December 2007 at Paracas Bay (Atenas Beach, 13°45' S, 76°17' W, Peru), including the period of the tsunami of 15 August 2007, providing a unique opportunity to assess the effects of this type of natural disturbance in soft bottom marine ecosystems. The results show that the tsunami affected the soft bottom community assemblage by changing the sediment granulometry, the biomass and abundance of epifaunal species, and by increasing the silt proportion. The event affected all functional groups, resulting in an increased numbers and biomass of filter feeder and grazers that were followed soon after by predators during the post-tsunami period. A similar pattern was observed for biomass and the abundance of infaunal species without changing the functional groups. The slow recovery observed after four months was likely related to the loss of sediment stability. In summary, there were differences in the structure and composition of soft bottom macrofaunal assemblages before and after the earthquake and posterior tsunami disturbance, forcing benthic communities to initiate re-colonisation processes.  相似文献   

Can a Simulated Flood Experience Improve Social Resilience to Disasters?     

Maria Teresa Carone  Loris Melchiorri  Francesco Romagnoli  Fausto Marincioni 《The Professional geographer》2013,65(4):604-615

The increase of extreme meteorological phenomena, along with continuous population growth, has led to a rising number of flooding disasters. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop better risk reduction strategies, among which is increased social resilience. Experiencing a disaster is recognized as a factor that positively influences overall community resilience, with particular effects on social resilience; it appears to be more influential than school education. It also has many negative effects, though. Previous studies underline that citizens do not distinguish between different types of experiences. Thus, we investigated whether a simulated experience of a flood can improve social resilience, without being hampered by negative repercussions. The study was executed in five municipalities in three Italian regions involved in the European project LIFE PRIMES, which planned simulation activities for each studied area. Data, collected through the administration of anonymous questionnaires before and after a flood drill, were processed by applying a multicriteria decision analysis tool (PROMETHEE). Results show that the drill significantly augmented perceived social resilience in the smaller studied communities but not in the larger ones, a fact that should be further investigated. Key Words: multicriteria decision analysis, simulated flood experience, social resilience to disasters.  相似文献   

Predicting coffee yield based on agroclimatic data and machine learning     

de Oliveira Aparecido  Lucas Eduardo  Lorençone  João Antonio  Lorençone  Pedro Antonio  Torsoni  Guilherme Botega  Lima  Rafael Fausto  dade Silva CabralMoraes  José Reinaldo 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2022,148(3-4):899-914

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Climate directly and indirectly influences agriculture, being the main responsible for low and high yields. Prior knowledge on yield helps coffee farmers in...  相似文献   

Impact of climate change on landslides frequency: the Esino river basin case study (Central Italy)     

Lorenzo Sangelantoni  Eleonora Gioia  Fausto Marincioni 《Natural Hazards》2018,93(2):849-884

Researchers have long attempted to determine the amount of rainfall needed to trigger slope failures, yet relatively little progress has been reported on the effects of climate change on landslide initiation. Indeed, some relationships between landslides and climate change have been highlighted, but sign and magnitude of this correlation remain uncertain and influenced by the spatial and temporal horizon considered. This work makes use of statistically adjusted high-resolution regional climate model simulations, to study the expected changes of landslides frequency in the eastern Esino river basin (Central Italy). Simulated rainfall was used in comparison with rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence derived by two observation-based statistical models (1) the cumulative event rainfall–rainfall duration model, and (2) the Bayesian probabilistic model. Results show an overall increase in projected landslide occurrence over the twenty-first century. This is especially confirmed in the high-emission scenario representative concentration pathway 8.5, where according to the first model, the events above rainfall thresholds frequency shift from ~?0.025 to ~?0.05 in the mountainous sector of the study area. Moreover, Bayesian analysis revealed the possible occurrence of landslide-triggering rainfall with a magnitude never occurred over the historical period. Landslides frequency change signal presents also considerable seasonal patterns, with summer displaying the steepest positive trend coupled to the highest inter-model spread. The methodological chain here proposed aims at representing a flexible tool for future landslide-hazard assessment, applicable over different areas and time horizons (e.g., short-term climate projections or seasonal forecasts).  相似文献   

Artificial radionuclides in the sediments of the Rhne river: a snapshot of the situation during winter 1994/95     

Dorothee Dietrich  Fausto Medici 《地学学报》1996,8(5):430-434

Artificial radionuclides (⁶⁰Co, ¹⁰⁶Ru, ¹³⁴Cs and ¹³⁷Cs) produced in the nuclear power plants along the Rhne valley have been detected in most of the 35 sediment samples collected from the shores of the Rhne river in southern France. In one sample traces of ²⁴¹Am were found, suggesting the presence of transuranic elements. The wide use of river water for irrigation and the occasional big inundations of the Rhne have spread the artificial radionuclides over huge areas, quite far behind the river shores. Although artificial radionuclides are present in fields where food crops are collected, their activity is currently considerably lower than the activity of the natural radionuclides present in the river sediment.  相似文献