Prediction in Real Time of the 2000 July 14 Heliospheric Shock Wave and its Companions During the `Bastille' Epoch*     

Dryer  M.  Fry  C.D.  Sun  W.  Deehr  C.  Smith  Z.  Akasofu  S.-I.  Andrews  M.D. 《Solar physics》2001,204(1-2):265-284

Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day') flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT, 15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15 July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain. Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1014200719867  相似文献   

A detailed abundance analysis of the hot post-AGB star ZNG-1 in M10     

C.J. Mooney  W.R.J. Rolleston  F.P. Keenan  P.L. Dufton  D.L. Pollacco  H.R. Magee 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,326(3):1101-1109

We present a model-atmosphere analysis for the bright ( V ∼13) star ZNG-1, in the globular cluster M10. From high-resolution ( R ∼40 000) optical spectra we confirm ZNG-1 to be a post-asymptotic giant branch (post-AGB) star. The derived atmospheric parameters are T _eff=26 500±1000 K and log  g =3.6±0.2 dex . A differential abundance analysis reveals a chemical composition typical of hot post-AGB objects, with ZNG-1 being generally metal poor, although helium is approximately solar. The most interesting feature is the large carbon underabundance of more than 1.3 dex. This carbon deficiency, along with an observed nitrogen enhancement relative to other elements, may suggest that ZNG-1 evolved off the AGB before the third dredge-up occurred. Also, iron depletions observed in other similar stars suggest that gas–dust fractionation in the AGB progenitor could be responsible for the observed composition of these objects. However, we need not invoke either scenario since the chemical composition of ZNG-1 is in good agreement with abundances found for a Population II star of the same metallicity.  相似文献   

Cosmic‐ray exposure history of two Frontier Mountain H‐chondrite showers from spallation and neutron‐capture products     

K. C. WELTEN  K. NISHIIZUMI  J. MASARIK  M. W. CAFFEE  A. J. T. JULL  S. E. KLANDRUD  R. WIELER 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2001,36(2):301-317

Abstract— We measured the concentrations of ¹⁰Be, ²⁶Al, ³⁶Cl, ⁴¹Ca and ¹⁴C in the metal and/or stone fractions of 27 Antarctic chondrites from Frontier Mountain (FRO), including two large H‐chondrite showers. To estimate the pre‐atmospheric size of the two showers, we determined the contribution of neutron‐capture produced ³⁶Cl (half‐life = 3.01 times 10⁵ years) and ⁴¹Ca (1.04 times 10⁵ years) in the stone fraction. The measured activities of neutron‐capture ³⁶Cl and ⁴¹Ca, as well as spallation produced ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al, were compared with Monte Carlo‐based model calculations. The largest shower, FRO 90174, includes eight fragments with an average terrestrial age of (100 ± 30) × 10³ years; the neutron‐capture saturation activities extend to 27 dpm/kg stone for ³⁶Cl and 19 dpm/kg stone for ⁴¹Ca. The concentrations of spallation produced ¹⁰Be, ²⁶Al and ³⁶Cl constrain the radius (R) to 80–100 cm, while the neutron‐capture ⁴¹Ca activities indicate that the samples originated from the outer 25 cm. With a pre‐atmospheric radius of 80–100 cm, FRO 90174 is among the largest of the Antarctic stony meteorites. The large pre‐atmospheric size supports our hypothesis that at least 50 of the ～150 classified H5/H6‐chondrites from the Frontier Mountain stranding area belong to this single fall; this hypothesis does not entirely account for the high H/L ratio at Frontier Mountain. The smaller shower, FRO 90001, includes four fragments with an average terrestrial age of (40 ± 10) × 10³ years; they contain small contributions of neutron‐capture ³⁶Cl, but no excess of ⁴¹Ca. FRO 90001 experienced a complex exposure history with high shielding conditions in the first stage (150 < R < 300 cm) and much lower shielding in the second stage (R < 30 cm), the latter starting ～1.0 million years (Ma) ago. Based on the measured ¹⁰Be/²¹Ne and ²⁶Al/²¹Ne ratios, the cosmic‐ray exposure ages of the two showers are 7.2 ± 0.5 Ma for FRO 90174 and 8 ± 1 Ma for FRO 90001. These ages coincide with the well‐established H‐chondrite peak and corroborate the observation that the exposure age distribution of FRO H‐chondrites is similar to that of non‐Antarctic falls. In addition, we found that corrections for neutron‐capture ³⁶Ar (from decay of ³⁶Cl) result in concordant ²¹Ne and ³⁸Ar exposure ages.  相似文献   

The EVN-MarkIV VLBI Data Processor     

R. T. Schilizzi  W. Aldrich  B. Anderson  A. Bos  R. M. Campbell  J. Canaris  R. Cappallo  J. L. Casse  A. Cattani  J. Goodman  H. J. van Langevelde  A. Maccafferri  R. Millenaar  R. G. Noble  F. Olnon  S. M. Parsley  C. Phillips  S. V. Pogrebenko  D. Smythe  A. Szomoru  H. Verkouter  A. R. Whitney 《Experimental Astronomy》2001,12(1):49-67

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Radar observations of Itokawa in 2004 and improved shape estimation     

Steven J. Ostro  Lance A. M. Benner  Christopher Magri  Jon D. Giorgini  Randy Rose  Raymond F. Jurgens  Donald K. Yeomans  Alice A. Hine  Michael C. Nolan  Daniel J. Scheeres  Stephen B. Broschart  Mikko Kaasalainen  Jean‐Luc Margot 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2005,40(11):1563-1574

Abstract— We present June 2004 radar images of asteroid 25143 Itokawa (1998 SF36) that improve upon the longitude‐latitude coverage of images obtained in 2001 by Ostro et al. (2004) and use the 2001–2004 data to refine that paper's constraints on Itokawa's shape. The 2004 images, the first of the asteroid's southern side, look distinctly different from the 2001 images, revealing leading edges that are much more curved and rugged than the nearly convex leading edges seen at northern latitudes in 2001. Itokawa is shaped like a slightly asymmetrical, bent, lumpy ellipsoid with dimensions along the principal axes within 10% of 594 times 320 times 288 m. To illustrate the uncertainty space associated with shape reconstruction from images with suboptimal orientational coverage, we present two alternative three‐dimensional models of the object.  相似文献   

A note on Le Verrier's expansion of the disturbing function     

C. D. Murray 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1985,36(2):163-164

An examination of Le Verrier's seventh-order expansion of the disturbing function has revealed only one non-trivial error in Le Verrier's work. The error occurs in a sixth order term in the eccentricities.  相似文献   

Observations on the ecological importance of salt marshes in the Cumberland Basin,a macrotidal estuary in the Bay of Fundy     

Donald C. Gordon  Peter J. Cranford  Con Desplanque 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》1985,20(2):205-227

The Cumberland Basin, a 118 km² estuary at the head of the Bay of Fundy which has an average tidal range of about 11m, contains large tracts of salt marsh (15% of the area below highest high water). Low marsh (below about 0·9 m above mean high water) is composed almost exclusively of Spartina alterniflora while the vegetation on high marsh is more diverse but dominated by Spartina patens. Because of its higher elevation, high marsh is flooded infrequently for short periods by only extreme high tides. Low marsh is inundated much more frequently by water as much as 4m deep for periods as long as 4 h per tide. Temporal variability in the occurrence of extreme tides influences the flooding frequency of high marsh for any given month and year. Using a modification of Smalley's method, the mean annual net aerial primary production (NAPP) of low and high marsh is estimated to be 272 and 172 g C m^?2, respectively. Vegetation turnover times average 1·0 and 2·0 y for low and high marsh, respectively. Because of abundant tidal energy, much of the low marsh production appears to be exported and distributed widely about the estuary. Since high levels of turbidity suppress phytoplankton production, salt marshes produce approximately half of the carbon fixed photosynthetically in the Cumberland Basin. It is concluded that salt marshes play a major ecological role in the Cumberland Basin.  相似文献   

A 2000-YEAR CONTEXT FOR MODERN CLIMATE CHANGE     

K.A. MAASCH  P.A. MAYEWSKI  E.J. ROHLING  J.C. STAGER  W. KARLEN  L.D. MEEKER  E.A. MEYERSON 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2005,87(1):7-15

ABSTRACT. Although considerable attention has been paid to the record of temperature change over the last few centuries, the range and rate of change of atmospheric circulation and hydrology remain elusive. Here, eight latitudinally well-distributed (pole-equator-pole), highly resolved (annual to decadal) climate proxy records are presented that demonstrate major changes in these variables over the last 2000 years. A comparison between atmospheric ¹⁴C and these changes in climate demonstrates a first-order relationship between a variable Sun and climate. The relationship is seen on a global scale.  相似文献   

    

Jack C. Mallory 《Environmental Geology》1985,7(1-2):1

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Yields of Nucleosynthesis from massive and intermediate mass stars and constraints on their final evolution     

D. C. V. Mallik  Sushma V. Mallik 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》1985,6(3):113-130

Nucleosynthetic yields and production rates of helium and heavy elements are derived using new initial mass functions which take into account the recent revisions in O star counts and the stellar models of Maeder (1981a, b) which incorporate the effects of massloss on evolution. The current production rates are significantly higher than the earlier results due to Chiosi & Caimmi (1979) and Chiosi (1979), and a near-uniform birthrate operating over the history of the galactic disc explains the currently observed abundances. However, the yields are incompatibly high, and to obtain agreement it is necessary to assume that stars above a certain mass do not explode but proceed to total collapse. Further confirmation of this idea comes from the consideration of the specific yields and production rates of oxygen, carbon and iron and the constraints imposed by the observational enrichment history in the disc as discussed by Twarog & Wheeler (1982). Substantial amounts of⁴He and¹⁴C, amongst the primary synthesis species, are contributed by the intermediate mass stars in their wind phases. If substantial numbers of them exploded as Type I SN, their contribution to the yields of¹²C and⁵⁶Fe would be far in excess of the requirements of galactic nucleosynthesis. Either efficient massloss precludes such catastrophic ends for these stars, or the current stellar models are sufficiently in error to leave room for substantial revisions in the specific yields. The proposed upward revision of the¹²C (α,γ)¹⁶O rate may produce the necessary changes in stellar yields to provide a solution to this problem. Stars that produce most of the metals in the Galaxy are the same ones that contribute most to the observed supernova rate.  相似文献