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Dryer M. Fry C.D. Sun W. Deehr C. Smith Z. Akasofu S.-I. Andrews M.D. 《Solar physics》2001,204(1-2):265-284
Prediction of solar-generated disturbances and their three-dimensional propagation through interplanetary space continues
to present a vitally important operational space weather forecasting objective. This paper presents the first successful real-time
prediction of a series of major heliospheric shock waves at Earth, including the one from the 14 July 2000 (`Bastille Day')
flare. An ensemble of three models and their predictions were distributed to a world-wide group of interested scientists as
part of an informal Internet space weather forecast research program. Two of the models, STOA (Shock Time of Arrival) and
ISPM (Interplanetary Shock Propagation Model), presently in operation by the US Air Force Weather Agency, provided predictions
of shock arrival time (SAT) that were, respectively, 0.5 hours after and 3.7 hours before the observed arrival. The third
model, HAFv.2 (Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry version 2.0) predicted a time 0.3 hours after the observed shock arrival time (14:37 UT,
15 July 2000). Of primary interest to this study is the third model, firstly in terms of its capability of propagating shocks
through non-uniform solar wind conditions, and secondly, in terms of its ability to integrate multiple solar events and display
them graphically along with the background solar wind. This latter capability was brought to bear on ten real-time-reported
flares, some with CMEs (coronal mass ejections) that took place as companions to the Bastille flare during the period 7–15
July 2000. Some limited statistics are given regarding the three models' shock arrival prediction capability at Earth, as
an extension of our earlier studies with this three model ensemble in the prediction of SAT. HAFv.2, however, was able to
describe not only the ten events and their interaction as measured at Earth, but also at the spacecraft NEAR (orbiting the
asteroid, Eros, at 1.8 AU), and CASSINI (en route, at 4.0 AU, to Saturn). Several important points are noted: (1) this epoch
represents a small statistical sample that should be expanded; and (2) the three models, based on theory, empiricism, and
simulations represent the state of the art that should presage a similar community process. This paper was presented earlier
as an Invited Talk at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 14–19, 2000, in San Francisco, CA, U.S.A.toward
space weather objectives in the Sun-Earth domain.
Supplementary material to this paper is available in electronic form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1014200719867 相似文献
2.
P.E. Sandholt A. Egeland B. Lybekk C.S. Deehr G.G. Sivjee G.J. Romick 《Planetary and Space Science》1983,31(11):1345-1362
Photometric observations of dayside auroras are compared with simultaneous measurements of geomagnetic disturbances from meridian chains of stations on the dayside and on the nightside to document the dynamics of dayside auroras in relation to local and global disturbances. These observations are related to measurements of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) from the satellites ISEE-1 and 3. It is shown that the dayside auroral zone shifts equatorward and poleward with the growth and decay of the circum-oval/polar cap geomagnetic disturbance and with negative and positive changes in the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz). The geomagnetic disturbance associated with the auroral shift is identified as the DP2 mode. In the post-noon sector the horizontal disturbance vector of the geomagnetic field changes from southward to northward with decreasing latitude, thereby changing sign near the center of the oval precipitation region. Discrete auroral forms are observed close to or equatorward of the ΔH = 0 line which separates positive and negative H-component deflections. This reversal moves in latitude with the aurora and it probably reflects a transition of the electric field direction at the polar cap boundary. Thus, the discrete auroral forms observed on the dayside are in the region of sunward-convecting field lines. A model is proposed to explain the equatorward and poleward movement of the dayside oval in terms of a dayside current system which is intensified by a southward movement of the IMF vector. According to this model, the Pedersen component of the ionospheric current is connected with the magnetopause boundary layer via field-aligned current (FAC) sheets. Enhanced current intensity, corresponding to southward auroral shift, is consistent with increased energy extraction from the solar wind. In this way the observed association of DP2 current system variations and auroral oval expansion/contraction is explained as an effect of a global, ‘direct’ response of the electromagnetic state of the magnetosphere due to the influence of the solar wind magnetic field. Estimates of electric field, current, and the rate of Joule heat dissipation in the polar cap ionosphere are obtained from the model. 相似文献
3.
OH (8-3) band rotational temperature was observed at 78.4°N during a stratospheric wanning event. A negative temperature wave of the order of 40 K observed near the mesopause seems to be associated with a corresponding stratospheric warming of the order of 20 K. A 1–2-day delay is observed between the maximum stratospheric warming and the maximum cooling near the mesopause seen in the OH rotational temperature change. 相似文献
4.
T Svenφe 《极地研究(英文版)》2002,13(1)
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5.
Analysis of observed spectrograms is based on comparison with synthetic spectra. The O2(b1Σ+g?X3Σ?g Atm. (1,1) band in high latitude auroras observed from the ground is found to be the strongest in the Δv = 0 sequence. It is enhanced with altitude relative to the N2 1P(2, 0)and N+2 M(2,0) bands, but the O2 Atm. (2, 2) band has an unexpected low intensity. The range of rotational temperatures of the O2 Atm. bands varies from approx. 200 to above 500 K which indicates that the altitude of the centroid of the emission region varies from about 100 km to the F-region. The highest temperature is found in the midday aurora associated with the magnetospheric cusp. Conspicuous relative variations between the intensities of N2 and O2 spectra are documented, but a satisfactory explanation of the variety is not given. Deviations of the observed O2 Atm. band intensities from the vibrational intensity distribution predicted by Franck-Condor factors indicate that the excitation of the O2 Atm. bands in aurora is not mainly due to particle impact on O2, and the contribution due to energy transfer from hot O(1D) atoms has to be found in future research. 相似文献
6.
Y. Zhang A. M. Du X. S. Feng W. Sun Y. D. Liu C. D. Fry C. S. Deehr M. Dryer B. Zieger Y. Q. Xie 《Solar physics》2014,289(1):319-338
Images observed by the twin spacecraft Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) A and B appear as complex structures for two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on 1 August 2010. Therefore, a series of sky maps of Thomson-scattered white light by interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) on 1 August 2010 are simulated using the Hakamada–Akasofu–Fry (HAF) three-dimensional solar-wind model. A comparison between the simulated images and observations of STEREO-A and -B clarifies the structure and evolution of ICMEs (including shocks) in the observed images. The results demonstrate that the simulated images from the HAF model are very useful in the interpretation of the observed images when the ICMEs overlap within the fields of view of the instruments onboard STEREO-A and -B. 相似文献
7.
Ground-based spectrophotometric measurements of night airglow OH (8-3) band absolute intensities in the polar cap region (78.4°N) during winter solstice are reported. A mean value of 425 ± 40 R is found for the absolute intensity of the OH (8-3) band. Maximum and minimum daily mean values were 770 and 320 R respectively with hourly mean values ranging from 180 to 1020 R. Neither a winter solstice minimum or maximum in the intensity is obvious from the data. No consistent correlation was found between the absolute intensity and geomagnetic and solar activity. A mean transport of O and O3 into the polar cap region corresponding to a meridional wind speed of at least 20 m s?1 at 90 km height seems necessary to maintain the observed intensity. A dominant semidiurnal tide component is found in the intensity data, both on a 20-day and a 3-day time scale. 相似文献
8.
R.W. Smith K. Henriksen C.S. Deehr D. Rees F.G. McCormac G.G. Sivjee 《Planetary and Space Science》1985,33(3):305-313
The dayside thermospheric wind pattern as observed from Spitsbergen generally shows moderately strong westward winds with a small poleward component. The flow is almost zonal, frequently with sufficient westward velocity that parcels of air cross the noon meridian travelling towards the morning before turning antisunward towards the nightside across the polar cap. There have been some exceptions which are characterized by much weaker winds having been increased in the poleward direction but with a very much reduced westward component. Making use of the meridian scanning photometer data obtained simultaneously on the same site, it is clearly shown that the normal behaviour occurs when the cusp, as indicated by the region of high and photometric intensity ratios, is to the North of the station. Just below the latitude of the cusp, the strong thermospheric flow generated by neutral coupling to the strong westward convection in the dusk sector continues across the dayside. It is maintained in the zonal direction because of the balance between the poleward Coriolis force and the equatorward pressure force caused by cusp heating. Poleward of the high pressure region at the cusp the flow is diverted northward and initially makes much slower progress across the Polar Cap. When the auroral oval has expanded such that the cusp is well to the South of our Spitsbergen station, the thermosphere in the sampled region has been found to be within this slow flow zone. On such occasions, the nightside speeds are well in excess of those on the dayside, in contrast to the normal behavior of comparable dayside and nightside wind speeds. 相似文献
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