Germany’s policy on disaster risk reduction and remote sensing as a tool for further consideration     

Florian Neutze  Bernd Oesterlen 《Natural Hazards》2013,68(1):209-210

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Validation of Strategies using Clustering Analysis of ECMWF EPS for Initial Perturbations in a Limited Area Model Ensemble Prediction System     

Florian Weidle  Weihong Tian  Taiwei Wang 《大气与海洋》2013,51(3):284-295

One of the main challenges for a skilful Limited Area Model Ensemble Prediction System (LAMEPS) is the generation of appropriate initial perturbations. In most operational LAMEPSs, the initial perturbations are provided by a global Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). Molteni et al. (2001 Marsigli, C., Montani, A., Nerozzi, F., Paccagnella, T., Tibaldi, S., Molteni, F. and Buizza, R. 2001. A strategy for high-resolution ensemble prediction. II: Limited-area experiments in four Alpine flood events. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 127: 2095–2115. (doi:10.1002/qj.49712757613)[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) proposed clustering analysis as an objective selection criterion to choose a member from the global European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)-EPS model as initial perturbations in LAMEPS. In this article, another strategy for using the clustering method is investigated which ensures that initial perturbations are centred on the control analysis. The main purpose of this article is to study the benefit of cluster analysis and to validate the effect of different clustering strategies on the performance of a 17-member LAMEPS. The system used in this study is the operational Aire Limitée Adaptation Dynamique Développement InterNational-Limited-Area Ensemble Forecasting (ALADIN-LAEF) model.

Three experiments were carried out over a 50-day period to validate different clustering strategies: i) representative members of 16 clusters from the 50-member ECMWF-EPS, where initial perturbations are not necessarily centred; ii) representative members from eight clusters and the symmetric pairs from ECMWF singular vector analysis; and iii) eight arbitrarily chosen ECMWF-EPS singular vector pairs. Results of the verified experiments show that the statistical reliability of ALADIN-LAEF improves when clustering is applied, but no clear improvement can be seen in the skill of LAMEPS. A case study of a heavy precipitation event confirms the result of the 50-day verification. The validation shows that none of the clustering strategies outperforms any other.

RÉSUMÉ?[Traduit par la rédaction] L'un des principaux défis d'un système performant de prévisions d'ensemble de modèle à domaine limité (LAMEPS) réside dans la génération de perturbations initiales appropriées. Dans la plupart des LAMEPS opérationnels, les perturbations initiales sont fournies par un système de prévisions d'ensemble (EPS) global. Molteni et coll. (2001 Molteni, F., Buizza, R., Marsigli, C., Montani, A., Nerozzi, F. and Paccagnella, T. 2001. A strategy for high-resolution ensemble prediction. I: Definition of representative members and global-model experiments. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 127: 2069–2094. (doi:10.1002/qj.49712757612)[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) ont proposé l'analyse par groupement comme critère de sélection objectif pour le choix d'un membre du modèle EPS global du Centre européen pour les prévisions météorologiques à moyen terme (ECMWF) comme perturbations initiales dans le LAMEPS. Dans cet article, nous étudions une autre stratégie d'utilisation de la méthode des groupements, qui assure que les perturbations initiales sont centrées sur l'analyse de contrôle. Le but premier de cet article est d’étudier les avantages de l'analyse par groupement et de valider l'effet des différentes stratégies de groupement sur la performance d'un LAMEPS de 17 membres. Le système utilisé dans cette étude est le modèle opérationnel ALADIN–LAEF (Aire limitée, Adaptation dynamique, Développement InterNational – Prévisions d'ensemble à domaine limité).Nous avons mené trois expériences sur une période de 50 jours pour valider différentes stratégies de groupement: i) membres représentatifs de 16 groupements d'un ECMWF–EPS de 50 membres, où les perturbations initiales ne sont pas nécessairement centrées; ii) membres représentatifs de huit groupements et les paires symétriques issues de l'analyse par vecteurs singuliers du ECMWF; et iii) huit paires issues de l'analyse par vecteurs singuliers du ECMWF-EPS choisies au hasard. Les résultats des expériences vérifiées montrent que la fiabilité statistique du ALADIN–LAEF s'améliore lorsqu'un groupement est appliqué, mais on ne perçoit aucune amélioration nette dans l'habileté du LAMEPS. Une étude de cas d'un événement de fortes précipitations confirme le résultat de la vérification de 50 jours. La validation montre qu'aucune des stratégies de groupement ne surpasse les autres.  相似文献   

The Valais units in Savoy (France): a key area for understanding the palaeogeography and the tectonic evolution of the Western Alps     

Andrea Loprieno  Romain Bousquet  Stefan Bucher  Stefano Ceriani  Florian H. Dalla Torre  Bernhard Fügenschuh  Stefan M. Schmid 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2011,100(5):963-992

The Valais units in Savoy (Zone des Brèches de Tarentaise) have been re-mapped in great detail and are subject of combined stratigraphic, structural and petrological investigations summarized in this contribution. The sediments and rare relics of basement, together with Cretaceous age mafic and ultramafic rocks of the Valais palaeogeographical domain, represent the heavily deformed relics of the former distal European margin (External Valais units) and an ocean–continent transition (Internal Valais unit or Versoyen unit) that formed during rifting. This rifting led to the opening of the Valais ocean, a northern branch of the Alpine Tethys. Post-rift sediments referred to as “Valais trilogy” stratigraphically overlie both External and Internal Valais successions above an angular unconformity formed in Barremian to Aptian times, providing robust evidence for the timing of the opening of the Valais ocean. The Valais units in Savoy are part of a second and more external mid-Eocene high-pressure belt in the Alps that sutured the Briançonnais microcontinent to Europe. Top-N D1-deformation led to the formation of a nappe stack that emplaced the largely eclogite-facies Internal Valais unit (Versoyen) onto blueschist-facies External Valais units. The latter originally consisted of, from internal to external, the Petit St. Bernard unit, the Roc de l’Enfer unit, the Moûtiers unit and the Quermoz unit. Ongoing top-N D2-thrusting and folding substantially modified this nappe stack. Post 35 Ma D3 folding led to relatively minor modifications of the nappe stack within the Valais units but was associated with substantial top-WNW thrusting of the Valais units over the Dauphinois units along the Roselend thrust during W-directed indentation of the Adria block contributing to the formation of the arc of the Western Alps.  相似文献   

Consistent atmospheric and oceanic excitation of the Earth's free polar motion     

Florian Seitz  Jochen Stuck  Maik Thomas 《Geophysical Journal International》2004,157(1):25-35

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It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures     

Ghislain Dubois  Benjamin Sovacool  Carlo Aall  Maria Nilsson  Carine Barbier  Alina Herrmann  Sébastien Bruyère  Camilla Andersson  Bore Skold  Franck Nadaud  Florian Dorner  Karen Richardsen Moberg  Jean Paul Ceron  Helen Fischer  Dorothee Amelung  Marta Baltruszewicz  Jeremy Fischer  Françoise Benevise  Valérie R. Louis  Rainer Sauerborn 《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2011

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority in current climate policy strategies. This paper investigates how behavioral change can achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in European high-income countries. It uses theoretical thinking and some core results from the HOPE research project, which investigated household preferences for reducing emissions in four European cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. The paper makes five major points: First, car and plane mobility, meat and dairy consumption, as well as heating are the most dominant components of household footprints. Second, household living situations (demographics, size of home) greatly influence the household potential to reduce their footprint, even more than country or city location. Third, household decisions can be sequential and temporally dynamic, shifting through different phases such as childhood, adulthood, and illness. Fourth, short term voluntary efforts will not be sufficient by themselves to reach the drastic reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C goal; instead, households need a regulatory framework supporting their behavioral changes. Fifth, there is a mismatch between the roles and responsibilities conveyed by current climate policies and household perceptions of responsibility. We then conclude with further recommendations for research and policy.  相似文献   

Arsenic in framboidal pyrite from recent sediments of a shallow water lagoon of the Baltic Sea     

Thomas Neumann  Florian Scholz  Utz Kramar  Michael Ostermaier  Nicole Rausch  Zsolt Berner 《Sedimentology》2013,60(6):1389-1404

Arsenic is a redox‐sensitive element of environmental relevance and often enriched in iron sulphides. Because sediments from the Achterwasser lagoon, a part of the estuarine system of the river Oder, south‐west Baltic Sea, show unexpectedly high pyrite concentrations of up to 7·5 wt% they were used to investigate the influence of authigenic pyrite on the mobility and burial of As in the coastal environment. Micro‐X‐ray‐fluorescence measurements of 106 micrometre‐sized pyrite framboids from the anoxic sediments show highly variable As concentrations ranging from 6 to 1142 μg g^?1. Even within a 1 cm thick layer, the As concentration of different framboids varies greatly and no clear depth trend is visible throughout the 50 cm long sediment core. Pyrite can account for 9 to 55% (average 22%) of the total As budget of the sediments and the degree of trace metalloid pyritization for As ranges from 26 to 61%, indicating that authigenic pyrite formation is an important process in the geochemical cycling of As in coastal sediments. High‐resolution micro‐X‐ray fluorescence mapping of single pyrite grains shows that As is distributed inhomogeneously within larger framboids, suggesting changing pore water composition during pyrite growth. X‐ray absorption near edge structure spectra indicate that As is usually present as As(‐I) substituting S in the pyrite lattice. However, in samples close to the sediment/water interface a considerable part of As is in higher valence states (+III/+V). This can be explained by frequent re‐suspension of the surficial sediments to the oxic water column due to wave action and subsequent re‐deposition, leading to the adsorption of As oxyanions onto pyrite. Although reduced As(‐I) becomes more important in the deeper samples, reflecting decreasing redox potential and a longer time since deposition, the occurrence of oxidized As species (AsIII/AsV) in pyrite in the anoxic part of the sediment suggests formation under dysoxic conditions.  相似文献   

Application of nondestructive testing methods to study the damage zone underneath impact craters of MEMIN laboratory experiments     

Dorothee MOSER  Michael H. POELCHAU  Florian STARK  Christian GROSSE 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2013,48(1):87-98

Abstract– Within the framework of the Multidisciplinary Experimental and Modeling Impact Research Network (MEMIN) research group, the damage zones underneath two experimentally produced impact craters in sandstone targets were investigated using several nondestructive testing (NDT) methods. The 20 × 20 × 20 cm sandstones were impacted by steel projectiles with a radius of 1.25 mm at approximately 5 km s^?1, resulting in craters with approximately 6 cm diameter and approximately 1 cm depth. Ultrasound (US) tomography and vibrational analysis were applied before and after the impact experiments to characterize the damage zone, and micro‐computer tomography (μ‐CT) measurements were performed to visualize subsurface fractures. The newly obtained experimental data can help to quantify the extent of the damage zone, which extends to about 8 cm depth in the target. The impacted sandstone shows a local p‐wave reduction of 18% below the crater floor, and a general reduction in elastic moduli by between approximately 9 and approximately 18%, depending on the type of elastic modulus. The results contribute to a better empirical and theoretical understanding of hypervelocity events and simulations of cratering processes.  相似文献   

Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: model comparison of drivers,impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Alexander Popp  Steven K. Rose  Katherine Calvin  Detlef P. Van Vuuren  Jan Phillip Dietrich  Marshall Wise  Elke Stehfest  Florian Humpenöder  Page Kyle  Jasper Van Vliet  Nico Bauer  Hermann Lotze-Campen  David Klein  Elmar Kriegler 《Climatic change》2014,123(3-4):495-509

In this article, we evaluate and compare results from three integrated assessment models (GCAM, IMAGE, and ReMIND/MAgPIE) regarding the drivers and impacts of bioenergy production on the global land system. The considered model frameworks employ linked energy, economy, climate and land use modules. By the help of these linkages the direct competition of bioenergy with other energy technology options for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, based on economic costs and GHG emissions from bioenergy production, has been taken into account. Our results indicate that dedicated bioenergy crops and biomass residues form a potentially important and cost-effective input into the energy system. At the same time, however, the results differ strongly in terms of deployment rates, feedstock composition and land-use and greenhouse gas implications. The current paper adds to earlier work by specific looking into model differences with respect to the land-use component that could contribute to the noted differences in results, including land cover allocation, land use constraints, energy crop yields, and non-bioenergy land mitigation options modeled. In scenarios without climate change mitigation, bioenergy cropland represents 10–18 % of total cropland by 2100 across the different models, and boosts cropland expansion at the expense of carbon richer ecosystems. Therefore, associated emissions from land-use change and agricultural intensification as a result of bio-energy use range from 14 and 113 Gt CO2-eq cumulatively through 2100. Under climate policy, bioenergy cropland increases to 24–36 % of total cropland by 2100.  相似文献   

The value of bioenergy in low stabilization scenarios: an assessment using REMIND-MAgPIE     

David Klein  Gunnar Luderer  Elmar Kriegler  Jessica Strefler  Nico Bauer  Marian Leimbach  Alexander Popp  Jan Philipp Dietrich  Florian Humpenöder  Hermann Lotze-Campen  Ottmar Edenhofer 《Climatic change》2014,123(3-4):705-718

This study investigates the use of bioenergy for achieving stringent climate stabilization targets and it analyzes the economic drivers behind the choice of bioenergy technologies. We apply the integrated assessment framework REMIND-MAgPIE to show that bioenergy, particularly if combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a crucial mitigation option with high deployment levels and high technology value. If CCS is available, bioenergy is exclusively used with CCS. We find that the ability of bioenergy to provide negative emissions gives rise to a strong nexus between biomass prices and carbon prices. Ambitious climate policy could result in bioenergy prices of 70 $/GJ (or even 430 $/GJ if bioenergy potential is limited to 100 EJ/year), which indicates a strong demand for bioenergy. For low stabilization scenarios with BECCS availability, we find that the carbon value of biomass tends to exceed its pure energy value. Therefore, the driving factor behind investments into bioenergy conversion capacities for electricity and hydrogen production are the revenues generated from negative emissions, rather than from energy production. However, in REMIND modern bioenergy is predominantly used to produce low-carbon fuels, since the transport sector has significantly fewer low-carbon alternatives to biofuels than the power sector. Since negative emissions increase the amount of permissible emissions from fossil fuels, given a climate target, bioenergy acts as a complement to fossils rather than a substitute. This makes the short-term and long-term deployment of fossil fuels dependent on the long-term availability of BECCS.  相似文献   

Carbon dynamics in woody biomass of forest ecosystem in China with forest management practices under future climate change and rising CO2 concentration     

ZHOU Lei  WANG Shaoqiang  Georg KINDERMANN  YU Guirui  HUANG Mei  Robert MICKLER  Florian KRAXNER  SHI Hao  GONG Yazhen 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2013,23(5):519-536

It is critical to study how different forest management practices affect forest carbon sequestration under global climate change regime. Previous researches focused on the stand-level forest carbon sequestration with rare investigation of forest carbon stocks influ- enced by forest management practices and climate change at regional scale. In this study, a general integrative approach was used to simulate spatial and temporal variations of woody biomass and harvested biomass of forest in China during the 21st century under dif- ferent scenarios of climate and CO2 concentration changes and management tasks by coupling Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon budget （InTEC） model with Global Forest Model （G4M）. The results showed that forest management practices have more predominant effects on forest stem stocking biomass than climate and CO2 concentration change. Meanwhile, the concurrent future changes in cli- mate and CO2 concentration will enhance the amounts of stem stocking biomass in forests of China by 12%-23% during 2001-2100 relative to that with climate change only. The task for maximizing stem stocking biomass will dramatically enhance the stem stocking biomass from 2001~100, while the task for maximum average increment will result in an increment of stem stocking biomass before 2050 then decline. The difference of woody biomass responding to forest management tasks was owing to the current age structure of forests in China. Meanwhile, the sensitivity of long-term woody biomass to management practices for different forest types （coniferous forest, mixed forest and deciduous forest） under changing climate and CO2 concentration was also analyzed. In addition, longer rotation length under future climate change and rising CO2 concentration scenario will dramatically increase the woody biomass of China during 2001~100. Therefore, our estimation indicated that taking the role of forest management in the carbon cycle into the consideration at regional or national level is very important to project the forest carbon sequestration under future climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration.  相似文献