Modelling innovation and the macroeconomics of low-carbon transitions: theory,perspectives and practical use     

Jean-Francois Mercure  Florian Knobloch  Hector Pollitt  Leonidas Paroussos  S. Serban Scrieciu  Richard Lewney 《Climate Policy》2019,19(8):1019-1037

Energy and climate policies may have significant economy-wide impacts, which are regularly assessed based on quantitative energy-environment-economy models. These tend to vary in their conclusions on the scale and direction of the likely macroeconomic impacts of a low-carbon transition. This paper traces the characteristic discrepancies in models’ outcomes to their origins in different macro-economic theories, most importantly their treatment of technological innovation and finance. We comprehensively analyse the relevant branches of macro-innovation theory and group them into two classes: ‘Equilibrium’ and ‘Non-equilibrium’. While both approaches are rigorous and self-consistent, they frequently yield opposite conclusions for the economic impacts of low-carbon policies. We show that model outcomes are mainly determined by their representations of monetary and finance dimensions, and their interactions with investment, innovation and technological change. Improving these in all modelling approaches is crucial for strengthening the evidence base for policy making and gaining a more consistent picture of the macroeconomic impacts of achieving emissions reductions objectives. The paper contributes towards the ongoing effort of enhancing the transparency and understanding of sophisticated model mechanisms applied to energy and climate policy analysis. It helps tackle the overall ‘black box’ critique, much-cited in policy circles and elsewhere.

Key policy insights

• Quantitative models commissioned by policy-makers to assess the macroeconomic impacts of climate policy generate contradictory outcomes and interpretations.

• The source of the differences in model outcomes originates primarily from assumptions on the workings of the financial sector and the nature of money, and of how these interact with processes of low-carbon energy innovation and technological change.

• Representations of innovation and technological change are incomplete in energy-economy-environment models, leading to limitations in the assessment of the impacts of climate-related policies.

• All modelling studies should state clearly their underpinning theoretical school and their treatment of finance and innovation.

• A strong recommendation is given for modellers of energy-economy systems to improve their representations of money and finance.

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The Ancient Rural Settlement Structure in the Hinterland of Pompeii Inferred from Spatial Analysis and Predictive Modeling of Villae Rusticae     

Sebastian Vogel  Michael Mrker  Domenico Esposito  Florian Seiler 《Geoarchaeology》2016,31(2):121-139

Pompeii, buried by the explosive A.D. 79 eruption of Somma‐Vesuvius, is one of the most studied ancient cities in the Roman world. However, until very recently, the rural settlement in its hinterland had been largely ignored by systematic archaeological research. The ancient landscape around Pompeii consisted of a dense network of Roman farms (villae rusticae). They are believed to have played a vital role in ancient rural life and economy and thus represented the interactive rural–urban relationship in the Sarno River plain. The systematic investigation of published work combined with new fieldwork has yielded a data set of 140 villae rusticae in the Sarno River plain. Geographic information system based spatial statistics as well as predictive modeling were applied to gain a more detailed understanding of the ancient rural settlement structure in relation to the underlying paleoenvironmental and socioeconomic conditions. A high‐resolution pre‐A.D. 79 paleolandscape model of the Sarno River plain was utilized. The aim of this paper is to address theoretical considerations, the methodological implementation, and the archaeological discussion of the analysis of the ancient rural settlements and agriculture around Pompeii.  相似文献   

The Revised Sunspot Record in Comparison to Cosmogenic Radionuclide-Based Solar Activity Reconstructions     

Raimund Muscheler  Florian Adolphi  Konstantin Herbst  Andreas Nilsson 《Solar physics》2016,291(9-10):3025-3043

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Weathering of ordinary chondrites from Oman: Correlation of weathering parameters with 14C terrestrial ages and a refined weathering scale          下载免费PDF全文

Florian J. Zurfluh  Beda A. Hofmann  Edwin Gnos  Urs Eggenberger  A. J. Timothy Jull 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2016,51(9):1685-1700

We have investigated 128 ¹⁴C‐dated ordinary chondrites from Oman for macroscopically visible weathering parameters, for thin section‐based weathering degrees, and for chemical weathering parameters as analyzed with handheld X‐ray fluorescence. These 128 ¹⁴C‐dated meteorites show an abundance maximum of terrestrial age at 19.9 ka, with a mean of 21.0 ka and a pronounced lack of samples between 0 and 10 ka. The weathering degree is evaluated in thin section using a refined weathering scale based on the current W0 to W6 classification of Wlotzka (1993), with five newly included intermediate steps resulting in a total of nine (formerly six) steps. We find significant correlations between terrestrial ages and several macroscopic weathering parameters. The correlation of various chemical parameters including Sr and Ba with terrestrial age is not very pronounced. The microscopic weathering degree of metal and sulfides with newly added intermediate steps shows the best correlation with ¹⁴C terrestrial ages, demonstrating the significance of the newly defined weathering steps. We demonstrate that the observed ¹⁴C terrestrial age distribution can be modeled from the abundance of meteorites with different weathering degrees, allowing the evaluation of an age‐frequency distribution for the whole meteorite population.  相似文献   

Effects of short flexible seagrass Zostera noltei on flow,erosion and deposition processes determined using flume experiments          下载免费PDF全文

Florian Ganthy  Laura Soissons  Pierre‐Guy Sauriau  Romaric Verney  Aldo Sottolichio 《Sedimentology》2015,62(4):997-1023

Innovative flume experiments were conducted in a recirculating straight flume. Zostera noltei meadows were sampled in their natural bed sediments in the field at contrasting stages of their seasonal growth. The aims of this study were: (i) to quantify the combined effects of leaf flexibility and development characteristics of Zostera noltei canopies on their interaction with hydrodynamics; and (ii) to quantify the role of Zostera noltei meadows in suspended sediment trapping and bed sediment resuspension related with changes in hydrodynamic forcing caused by the seasonal development of seagrasses. Velocity within the canopy was significantly damped. The attenuation in velocity ranged from 34 to 87% compared with bare sediments and was associated with a density threshold resulting from the flow‐induced canopy reconfiguration. The reduction in flow was higher in dense canopies at higher velocities than in less dense canopies, in which the reduction in flow was greater at low velocities. These contrasted results can be explained by competition between a rough‐wall boundary layer caused by the bed and a shear layer caused by the canopy. The velocity attenuation was associated with a two to three‐fold increase in bottom shear stress compared with unvegetated sediment. Despite the increase in near‐bed turbulence, protection of the sediment against erosion increased under a fully developed meadow, while sediment properties were found to be the main factor controlling erosion in a less developed meadow. Deposition fluxes were higher on the vegetated bed than on bare sediments, and these fluxes increased with leaf density. Fewer freshly deposited sediments were resuspended in vegetated beds, resulting in an increase in net sediment deposition with meadow growth. However, in the case of a very high leaf area index, sediment was mostly deposited on leaves, which facilitated subsequent resuspension and resulted in less efficient sediment trapping than in the less developed meadow.  相似文献   

Systematic errors of mapping functions which are based on the VMF1 concept   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Florian Zus  Galina Dick  Jan Dousa  Jens Wickert 《GPS Solutions》2015,19(2):277-286

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Experimental identification of Ca isotopic fractionations in higher plants     

Florian Cobert  Pascale Bourgeade  Pierre-Marie Badot  Peter Stille 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2011,75(19):5467-5482

Hydroponic experiments have been performed in order to identify the co-occurring geochemical and biological processes affecting the Ca isotopic compositions within plants. To test the influence of the Ca concentration and pH of the nutritive solution on the Ca isotopic composition of the different plant organs, four experimental conditions were chosen combining two different Ca concentrations (5 and 60 ppm) and two pHs (4 and 6). The study was performed on rapid growing bean plants in order to have a complete growth cycle. Several organs (root, stem, leaf, reproductive) were sampled at two different growth stages (10 days and 6 weeks of culture) and prepared for Ca isotopic measurements.The results allow to identify three Ca isotopic fractionation levels. The first one takes place when Ca enters the lateral roots, during Ca adsorption on cation-exchange binding sites in the apoplasm. The second one takes place when Ca is bound to the polygalacturonic acids (pectins) of the middle lamella of the xylem cell wall. Finally, the last fractionation occurs in the reproductive organs, also caused by cation-exchange processes with pectins. However, the cell wall structures of these organs and/or number of available exchange sites seem to be different to those of the xylem wall. These three physico-chemical fractionation mechanisms allow to enrich the organs in the light ⁴⁰Ca isotope. The amplitude of the Ca isotopic fractionation within plant organs is highly dependent on the composition of the nutritive solution: low pH (4) and Ca concentrations (5 ppm) have no effect on the biomass increase of the plants but induce smaller fractionation amplitudes compared to those obtained from other experimental conditions. Thus, Ca isotopic signatures of bean plants are controlled by the external nutritive medium. This study highlights the potential of Ca isotopes to be applied in plant physiology (to identify Ca uptake, circulation and storage mechanisms within plants) and in biogeochemistry (to identify Ca recycling, Ca content and pH evolutions in soil solutions through time).  相似文献   

Fast and easy method for seagrass monitoring: application of acoustic telemetry to precision mapping of Posidonia oceanica beds     

Descamp P  Holon F  Ballesta L  Guilbert A  Guillot M  Boissery P  Raimondino V  Deter J 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(2):284-292

Posidonia oceanica is an endemic seagrass from the Mediterranean Sea. It is an indicator of water quality and of the ecological state of coastal ecosystems. The aim of this paper is to test acoustic telemetry for monitoring the position of P. oceanica meadow limits with varied types. After evaluating the accuracy of the system, we present results from a spatiotemporal survey of P. oceanica meadows on nine sites located on the French coast. The method has been demonstrated to be highly efficient for high precision underwater mapping regardless of meadow type, with 1 cm accuracy for a distance of 40 m between the base and the pointer. A temporal survey led at Cerbere-Banyuls shows a weak global progression of 4 m² (progression of 26 m² - regression of 22 m²) between 2006 and 2010. Finally, we discuss the cost and efficiency of this method, and wether it should be generalized for further studies.  相似文献   

Earthquakes in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2010     

Nicholas Deichmann  John Clinton  Stephan Husen  Benjamin Edwards  Florian Haslinger  Donat Fäh  Domenico Giardini  Philipp Kästli  Urs Kradolfer  Stefan Wiemer 《Swiss Journal of Geoscience》2011,104(3):537-547

This report of the Swiss Seismological Service summarizes the seismic activity in Switzerland and surrounding regions during 2010. During this period, 407 earthquakes and 85 quarry blasts were detected and located in the region under consideration. With a total of only 19 events with M_L ≥ 2.5, the seismic activity in the year 2010 was below the average over the previous 35 years. The two most noteworthy earthquakes were the M_L 3.4 Barrhorn event near Sankt Niklaus (VS) and the M_L 3.0 event of Feldkirch, both of which produced shaking of intensity IV.  相似文献   

Coupled modeling of thermics and hydrogeology with the Cast3M code: application to the Rainbow hydrothermal field (Mid-Atlantic Ridge, 36°14′N)     

Florian Perez  Claude Mügler  Philippe Jean-Baptiste  Jean Luc Charlou 《Computational Geosciences》2013,17(2):217-237

We present a new numerical tool developed in the Cast3M software framework to model hydrothermal circulation. Thermodynamic properties of one-phase pure water are calculated from the International Association for the Properties of Water and Steam formulation. This new numerical tool is validated on several test cases of convection in closed-top and open-top boxes. Simulations of hydrothermal circulation in a homogeneous-permeability porous medium also give results in good agreement with already published simulations. This new numerical tool is used to construct a geometric and physical conceptual model of the Rainbow vent site at 36°14^′N on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Several configurations are discussed, showing that high temperatures and high mass fluxes measured at the Rainbow site cannot be modeled with hydrothermal circulation in a homogeneous-permeability porous medium. These high values require the presence of a fault or a preferential pathway right below the venting site. We propose and discuss a two-dimensional single-pass model that allows us to simulate both high temperatures and high mass fluxes. This modeling of the hydrothermal circulation at the Rainbow site constitutes the first but necessary step to understand the origin of high concentrations of hydrogen issued from this ultramafic-hosted vent field.  相似文献