Coastal vulnerability to wave storms of Sele littoral plain (southern Italy)   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Gianluigi Di Paola  Pietro Patrizio Ciro Aucelli  Guido Benassai  Germán Rodríguez 《Natural Hazards》2014,71(3):1795-1819

This paper presents a new method for coastal vulnerability assessment (CVA), which relies upon three indicators: run-up distance (as a measurement of coastal inundation), beach retreat (as a measurement of potential erosion), and beach erosion rate (obtained through the shoreline positions in different periods). The coastal vulnerability analysis of Sele Coastal Plain to storm impacts is examined along a number of beach profiles realized between 2008 and 2009. This particular study area has been selected due to its low-lying topography and high erosion propensity. Results are given in terms of an impact index, performed by combining the response due to coastal inundation, storm erosion, and beach erosion rate. This analysis is implemented on the basis of morphosedimentary characteristics of the beach, wave climate evaluation, and examination of multitemporal aerial photographs and topographic maps. The analysis of the final results evidences different coastal responses as a function of the beach width and slope, which in turn depend on the local anthropization level. The comparison of this method with a Coastal Vulnerability Index method evidences the better attitude of CVA index to take into account the different beach features to explain the experienced damages in specific stretches of the coastline considered.  相似文献   

Bayesian Methods for Reconstructing Sunspot Numbers Before and During the Maunder Minimum     

Guido Travaglini 《Solar physics》2017,292(1):23

The Maunder Minimum (MM) was an extended period of reduced solar activity in terms of yearly sunspot numbers (SSN) during 1610?–?1715. The reality of this “grand minimum” is generally accepted in the scientific community, but the statistics of the SSN record suggest a need for data reconstruction. The MM data show a nonstandard distribution compared with the entire SSN signal (1610?–?2014). The pattern does not satisfy the weakly stationary solar dynamo approximation, which characterizes many natural events spanning centuries or even millennia, including the Sun and the stars. Over the entire observation period (1610?–?2014), the reported SSN exhibits statistically significant regime switches, departures from autoregressive stationarity, and growing trends. Reconstruction of the SSN during the pre-MM and MM periods is performed using five novel statistical procedures in support of signal analysis. A Bayesian–Monte Carlo backcast technique is found to be most reliable and produces an SSN signal that meets the weak-stationarity requirement. The computed MM signal for this reconstruction does not show a “grand” minimum or even a “semi-grand” minimum.  相似文献   

Robe's restricted three-body problem with drag     

C. M. Giordano  A. R. Plastino  A. Plastino 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1996,66(2):229-242

Robe's restricted three-body problem is investigated with regards to the effects of a linear drag force. In particular. the stability of the model's equilibrium points is studied in this respect. Two scenarios are envisaged: the one originally discussed by Robe himself and the one suggested by him and recently analyzed by the present authors, that assumes for the fluid body the structure of a Roche's ellipsoid.  相似文献   

The high-order Euler method and the spin–orbit model.     

Michele V. Bartuccelli  Jonathan H. B. Deane  Guido Gentile 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2015,121(3):233-260

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Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

David W. Pierce  Tapash Das  Daniel R. Cayan  Edwin P. Maurer  Norman L. Miller  Yan Bao  M. Kanamitsu  Kei Yoshimura  Mark A. Snyder  Lisa C. Sloan  Guido Franco  Mary Tyree 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(3-4):839-856

Sixteen global general circulation models were used to develop probabilistic projections of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) changes over California by the 2060s. The global models were downscaled with two statistical techniques and three nested dynamical regional climate models, although not all global models were downscaled with all techniques. Both monthly and daily timescale changes in T and P are addressed, the latter being important for a range of applications in energy use, water management, and agriculture. The T changes tend to agree more across downscaling techniques than the P changes. Year-to-year natural internal climate variability is roughly of similar magnitude to the projected T changes. In the monthly average, July temperatures shift enough that that the hottest July found in any simulation over the historical period becomes a modestly cool July in the future period. Januarys as cold as any found in the historical period are still found in the 2060s, but the median and maximum monthly average temperatures increase notably. Annual and seasonal P changes are small compared to interannual or intermodel variability. However, the annual change is composed of seasonally varying changes that are themselves much larger, but tend to cancel in the annual mean. Winters show modestly wetter conditions in the North of the state, while spring and autumn show less precipitation. The dynamical downscaling techniques project increasing precipitation in the Southeastern part of the state, which is influenced by the North American monsoon, a feature that is not captured by the statistical downscaling.  相似文献   

Diffuse CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> degassing at Vesuvio,Italy   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Francesco?FrondiniEmail author  Giovanni?Chiodini  Stefano?Caliro  Carlo?Cardellini  Domenico?Granieri  Guido?Ventura 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2004,66(7):642-651

At Vesuvio, a significant fraction of the rising hydrothermal–volcanic fluids is subjected to a condensation and separation process producing a CO₂–rich gas phase, mainly expulsed through soil diffuse degassing from well defined areas called diffuse degassing structures (DDS), and a liquid phase that flows towards the outer part of the volcanic cone. A large amount of thermal energy is associated with the steam condensation process and subsequent cooling of the liquid phase. The total amount of volcanic–hydrothermal CO₂ discharged through diffuse degassing has been computed through a sequential Gaussian simulation (sGs) approach based on several hundred accumulation chamber measurements and, at the time of the survey, amounted to 151 t d^–1. The steam associated with the CO₂ output, computed assuming that the original H₂O/CO₂ ratio of hydrothermal fluids is preserved in fumarolic effluents, is 553 t d^–1, and the energy produced by the steam condensation and cooling of the liquid phase is 1.47×10¹² J d^–1 (17 MW). The location of the CO₂ and temperature anomalies show that most of the gas is discharged from the inner part of the crater and suggests that crater morphology and local stratigraphy exert strong control on CO₂ degassing and subsurface steam condensation. The amounts of gas and energy released by Vesuvio are comparable to those released by other volcanic degassing areas of the world and their estimates, through periodic surveys of soil CO₂ flux, can constitute a useful tool to monitor volcanic activity.Editorial responsibility: H. Shinohara  相似文献   

Erratum to “Laser scanning-based recognition of rotational movements on a deep seated gravitational instability: The Cinque Torri case (North-Eastern Italian Alps)” [Geomorphology 122 (2010) 191-204]     

Alessia Viero  Giordano Teza  Matteo MassironiMichel Jaboyedoff  Antonio Galgaro 《Geomorphology》2012,138(1):420

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Shoshonite and sub-alkaline magmas from an ultrapotassic volcano: Sr–Nd–Pb isotope data on the Roccamonfina volcanic rocks,Roman Magmatic Province,Southern Italy     

Sandro Conticelli  Sara Marchionni  Davide Rosa  Guido Giordano  Elena Boari  Riccardo Avanzinelli 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2009,157(1):41-63

The Roccamonfina volcano is characterised by two stages of volcanic activity that are separated by volcano-tectonic caldera collapses. Ultrapotassic leucite-bearing rocks are confined to the pre-caldera stage and display geochemical characteristics similar to those of other volcanoes in the Roman Province. After the major sector collapse of the volcano, occurred at ca. 400 ka, shoshonitic rocks erupted from cinder cones and domes both within the caldera and on the external flanks of the pre-caldera Roccamonfina volcano. On the basis of new trace element and Sr–Nd–Pb isotope data, we show that the Roccamonfina shoshonitic rocks are distinct from shoshonites of the Northern Roman Province, but are very similar to those of the Neapolitan volcanoes. The last phases of volcanic activity erupted sub-alkaline magmas as enclaves in trachytic domes, and as lavas within the Monte Santa Croce dome. Ultrapotassic rocks of the pre-caldera composite volcano are plagioclase-bearing leucitites characterised by high levels of incompatible trace elements with an orogenic signature having troughs at Ba, Ta, Nb, and Ti, and peaks at Cs, K, Th, U, and Pb. Initial values of ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr range from 0.70926 to 0.70999, ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ranges from 0.51213 to 0.51217, while the lead isotope rations vary between 18.788–18.851 for ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, 15.685–15.701 for ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb, and 39.048–39.076 for ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb. Shoshonites show a similar pattern of trace element depletions and enrichments to the earlier ultrapotassic leucite-bearing rocks but have a larger degree of differentiation and lower concentrations of incompatible trace elements. On the other hand, shoshonitic rocks have Sr, Nd, and Pb isotopes consistently different than pre-caldera ultrapotassic leucite-bearing rocks. ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ranges from 0.70665 to 0.70745, ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ranges from 0.51234 to 0.51238, ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb ranges from 18.924 to 19.153, ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁴Pb ranges from 15.661 to 15.694, and ²⁰⁸Pb/²⁰⁴Pb ranges from 39.084 to 39.212. High-K calc-alkaline samples have intermediate isotopic values between ultrapotassic plagioclase leucitites and shoshonites, but the lowest levels of incompatible trace element contents. It is argued that ultrapotassic magmas were generated in a modified lithospheric mantle after crustal-derived metasomatism. Interaction between the metasomatic agent and lithospheric upper mantle produced a low-melting point metasomatised veined network. The partial melting of the veins alone produced pre-caldera leucite-bearing ultrapotassic magmas. It was possibly triggered by either post-collisional isotherms relaxation or increasing T°C due increasing heat flow through slab tears. Shoshonitic magmas were generated by further melting, at higher temperature, of the same metasomatic assemblage with addition 10–20% of OIB-like astenospheric mantle material. We suggest that addition of astenospheric upper mantle material from foreland mantle, flowing through slab tearing after collision was achieved. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.  相似文献   

Star formation in the starburst cluster in NGC 3603     

Matteo Correnti  Francesco Paresce  Rossella Aversa  Giacomo Beccari  Guido De Marchi  Marcella Di Criscienzo  Xiaoying Pang  Loredana Spezzi  Elena Valenti  Paolo Ventura 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2012,340(2):263-279

We have used new, deep, visible and near infrared observations of the compact starburst cluster in the giant HII region NGC 3603 and its surroundings with the WFC3 on HST and HAWK-I on the VLT to study in detail the physical properties of its intermediate mass (∼1–3 M_⊙) stellar population. We show that after correction for differential extinction and actively accreting stars, and the study of field star contamination, strong evidence remains for a continuous spread in the ages of pre-main sequence stars in the range ∼2 to ∼30 Myr within the temporal resolution available. Existing differences among presently available theoretical models account for the largest possible variation in shape of the measured age histograms within these limits. We also find that this isochronal age spread in the near infrared and visible Colour-Magnitude Diagrams cannot be reproduced by any other presently known source of astrophysical or instrumental scatter that could mimic the luminosity spread seen in our observations except, possibly, episodic accretion. The measured age spread and the stellar spatial distribution in the cluster are consistent with the hypothesis that star formation started at least 20–30 Myrs ago progressing slowly but continuously up to at least a few million years ago. All the stars in the considered mass range are distributed in a flattened oblate spheroidal pattern with the major axis oriented in an approximate South-East–North-West direction, and with the length of the equatorial axis decreasing with increasing age. This asymmetry is most likely due to the fact that star formation occurred along a filament of gas and dust in the natal molecular cloud oriented locally in this direction.  相似文献   

Intermediate-mass black holes and ultraluminous X-ray sources in the Cartwheel ring galaxy     

M. Mapelli  B. Moore  L. Giordano  L. Mayer  M. Colpi  E. Ripamonti  S. Callegari 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,383(1):230-246

Chandra and XMM–Newton observations of the Cartwheel galaxy show ∼17 bright X-ray sources  (≳5 × 10³⁸ erg s⁻¹)  , all within the gas-rich outer ring. We explore the hypothesis that these X-ray sources are powered by intermediate-mass black holes (IMBHs) accreting gas or undergoing mass transfer from a stellar companion. To this purpose, we run N -body/smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations of the galaxy interaction which might have led to the formation of Cartwheel, tracking the dynamical evolution of two different IMBH populations: halo and disc IMBHs. Halo IMBHs cannot account for the observed X-ray sources, as only a few of them cross the outer ring. Instead, more than half of the disc IMBHs are pulled in the outer ring as a consequence of the galaxy collision. However, also in the case of disc IMBHs, accretion from surrounding gas clouds cannot account for the high luminosities of the observed sources. Finally, more than 500 disc IMBHs are required to produce ≲15 X-ray sources via mass transfer from very young stellar companions. Such number of IMBHs is very large and implies extreme assumptions. Thus, the hypothesis that all the observed X-ray sources in Cartwheel are associated with IMBHs is hardly consistent with our simulations, even if it is still possible that IMBHs account for the few (≲1–5) brightest ultraluminous X-ray sources.  相似文献