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991.
992.
Central European Cenozoic plume volcanism with OIB characteristics and indications of a lower mantle source 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
Average concentrations of incompatible elements and isotopes of radiogenic Sr, Nd and Pb in a 350 km long belt of Central
European volcanics (CECV) resemble those in OIB in general and in OIB from the N Atlantic in particular. This similarity allows
to infer comparable sources for CECV and OIB which might have been located in the lower mantle according to seismic tomography
and chemistry, with the latter unlike a MORB source. The incompatible element contribution of lower mantle origin can be modelled
from primitive mantle minus continental crust and upper mantle inventories. Alkali basaltic magmas from the modelled source
are close in composition to CECV and OIB. The continental crust contains almost half of the silicate Earth's content of Rb,
K, Pb, Ba, Th and U, which were mobilized to a major extent through dehydration of subducted ocean crust. Related losses from
the lower mantle had to be replaced by deep subductions of oceanic lithosphere recognized from their isotopic imprint. From
a balance based on Nd isotopes it can be concluded that average CECV contains 60% matter from residual primitive mantle and
40% from deeply subducted lithosphere (including some young upper mantle materials). Plume products from separate CECV regions
developed, within 45 Ma, from rather depleted to more primitive isotopic signatures. Four periods of volcanism from Eocene
to late Quaternary time are explained as four pulses of an almost stationary ultrafast plume uprise as modelled by Larsen
and Yuen (1997). Magma production has increased from the first to the third pulse with the peak during Miocene time in the
Vogelsberg region. The final pulse produced the Quaternary Eifel volcanoes. Tectonism from the Alpine orogen has probably
triggered the synchronous volcanism of CECV, Massif Central etc. The European lithospheric plate has moved under the control
of the opening Atlantic almost in an eastern direction with a velocity of 1 cm per year and has shifted extinct volcanoes
off their source channels.
Received: 10 July 1998 / Accepted: 10 February 1999 相似文献
993.
994.
995.
Paul?KinsvaterEmail authorView authors OrcID profile Roland?Fried 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(5):1155-1169
This article deals with the right-tail behavior of a response distribution \(F_Y\) conditional on a regressor vector \({\mathbf {X}}={\mathbf {x}}\) restricted to the heavy-tailed case of Pareto-type conditional distributions \(F_Y(y|\ {\mathbf {x}})=P(Y\le y|\ {\mathbf {X}}={\mathbf {x}})\), with heaviness of the right tail characterized by the conditional extreme value index \(\gamma ({\mathbf {x}})>0\). We particularly focus on testing the hypothesis \({\mathscr {H}}_{0,tail}:\ \gamma ({\mathbf {x}})=\gamma _0\) of constant tail behavior for some \(\gamma _0>0\) and all possible \({\mathbf {x}}\). When considering \({\mathbf {x}}\) as a time index, the term trend analysis is commonly used. In the recent past several such trend analyses in extreme value data have been published, mostly focusing on time-varying modeling of location or scale parameters of the response distribution. In many such environmental studies a simple test against trend based on Kendall’s tau statistic is applied. This test is powerful when the center of the conditional distribution \(F_Y(y|{\mathbf {x}})\) changes monotonically in \({\mathbf {x}}\), for instance, in a simple location model \(\mu ({\mathbf {x}})=\mu _0+x\cdot \mu _1\), \({\mathbf {x}}=(1,x)'\), but the test is rather insensitive against monotonic tail behavior, say, \(\gamma ({\mathbf {x}})=\eta _0+x\cdot \eta _1\). This has to be considered, since for many environmental applications the main interest is on the tail rather than the center of a distribution. Our work is motivated by this problem and it is our goal to demonstrate the opportunities and the limits of detecting and estimating non-constant conditional heavy-tail behavior with regard to applications from hydrology. We present and compare four different procedures by simulations and illustrate our findings on real data from hydrology: weekly maxima of hourly precipitation from France and monthly maximal river flows from Germany. 相似文献
996.
Fasheng?Miao Yiping?WuEmail author Yuanhua?Xie Feng?Yu Lijuan?Peng 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(7):1683-1696
To the progressive landslide, development of the internal deformation and failure situation can’t be accurately reflected by the overall stability of coefficients and failure probability. But this problem can be solved by utilizing the principle of progressive failure by slices. Taking the warning area of Baishuihe landslide as an example, 5 days accumulated rainfall in different reappearing period is computed by Gumbel model. The failure probability of each slice is calculated by progressive failure principle, which is based on Monte Carlo model. The following results can be revealed through calculation: Overall stability and failure probability can’t reflect real situation of Baishuihe landslide warning area. Through building the calculation of progressive failure model of each slice, the stability of each part in the Baishuihe landslide warning area is quite different. Unstable region mainly lies in vicinity of the middle and posterior warning area. The front of the warning area remains stable. Deformation characteristics of the warning area are consistent with the investigation report. The scope of unstable area increased gradually with rainfall and the decline of reservoir water. Under 5 day’s accumulated rainfall of 50 years, the poor stable and unstable region reached 75 %, there is a large possibility of local deformation slip. Under the joint action of rainfall and reservoir water level, the warning area of Baishuihe landslide shows a progressive failure mode from top to bottom. 相似文献
997.
Daisy?Arroyo Xavier?EmeryEmail author 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(7):1583-1592
This paper addresses the problem of simulating multivariate random fields with stationary Gaussian increments in a d-dimensional Euclidean space. To this end, one considers a spectral turning-bands algorithm, in which the simulated field is a mixture of basic random fields made of weighted cosine waves associated with random frequencies and random phases. The weights depend on the spectral density of the direct and cross variogram matrices of the desired random field for the specified frequencies. The algorithm is applied to synthetic examples corresponding to different spatial correlation models. The properties of these models and of the algorithm are discussed, highlighting its computational efficiency, accuracy and versatility. 相似文献
998.
Zhen?Li Chongqing?Xu Miao?LiEmail author Guihuan?Yan Xiang?LiuEmail author Yeping?Ma 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(7):1671-1682
Groundwater recharge using reclaimed water has developed rapidly around the world to relieve the groundwater resource shortage and declining of the water table. Traditional water treatment systems are inefficient to remove all the types of contaminants, so it is urgent to identify the priority chemical substances (CSs) that deserve our first concern. In this study, we developed a method (EER method) to identify priority CSs in groundwater recharge by surface spreading and direct aquifer injection. Three stages were processed which were exposure assessment, effect assessment and ranking for identification of priority CSs. Fourteen cities in China were selected for data collected and 90 pollutants in reclaimed water samples were analyzed as the target pollutants for a case study. According to three stages, the 90 CSs studied were divided into five groups (primary control CSs and high, moderate and low and no risk control CSs). In the primary control CSs and high, moderate and low and no risk control CSs group there were 14, 18, 21, 21 and 16 CSs, respectively when groundwater recharged by surface spreading, while there were 15, 18, 21, 21 and 15 CSs when recharged by direct injection. This method provided an indicator of prioritizing the risk of 90 compounds in the reclaimed water for groundwater recharge. 相似文献
999.
Hassan?RezaeeEmail author Denis?Marcotte 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(7):1727-1745
A new approach is described to allow conditioning to both hard data (HD) and soft data for a patch- and distance-based multiple-point geostatistical simulation. The multinomial logistic regression is used to quantify the link between HD and soft data. The soft data is converted by the logistic regression classifier into as many probability fields as there are categories. The local category proportions are used and compared to the average category probabilities within the patch. The conditioning to HD is obtained using alternative training images and by imposing large relative weights to HD. The conditioning to soft data is obtained by measuring the probability–proportion patch distance. Both 2D and 3D cases are considered. Synthetic cases show that a stationary TI can generate non-stationary realizations reproducing the HD, keeping the texture indicated by the TI and following the trends identified in probability maps obtained from soft data. A real case study, the Mallik methane-hydrate field, shows perfect reproduction of HD while keeping a good reproduction of the TI texture and probability trends. 相似文献
1000.
Qian?Zhang Xiujuan?Liang Zhang?FangEmail author Changlai?Xiao 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(7):1697-1707
Precipitation is an important part of the hydrologic cycle, and its complexity is closely related to surface runoff and changing groundwater dynamics, which in turn influences the accuracy of precipitation forecasts. In this study, we used the Lempel–Ziv algorithm (LZA) and a multi-scaling approach to assess precipitation complexity for 1958–2011 by analyzing time series data from 28 gauging stations located throughout Jilin province, China. The spatial distribution of normalized precipitation complexity was measured by LZA, a symbolic dynamics algorithm, and by a multi-scaling approach, which is described by fractals. In addition, the advantages and limitations of these two methods were investigated. The results indicate that both methods are applicable and consistent for calculating precipitation complexity, and that the degree of relief is a primary factor controlling precipitation complexity in the mountainous area; in the plain terrain, however, the prominent influencing factor is climate. 相似文献