Assessment of future runoff trends under multiple climate change scenarios in the Willamette River Basin,Oregon, USA     

Il‐Won Jung  Heejun Chang 《水文研究》2011,25(2):258-277

We investigated trends in future seasonal runoff components in the Willamette River Basin (WRB) of Oregon for the twenty‐first century. Statistically downscaled climate projections by Climate Impacts Group (CIG), eight different global climate model (GCM) simulations with two different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios, (A1B and B1), were used as inputs for the US Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modelling System. Ensemble mean results show negative trends in spring (March, April and May) and summer (June, July and August) runoff and positive trends in fall (September, October and November) and winter (December, January and February) runoff for 2000–2099. This is a result of temperature controls on the snowpack and declining summer and increasing winter precipitation. With temperature increases throughout the basin, snow water equivalent (SWE) is projected to decline consistently for all seasons. The decreases in the centre of timing and 7‐day low flows and increases in the top 5% flow are caused by the earlier snowmelt in spring, decreases in summer runoff and increases in fall and winter runoff, respectively. Winter runoff changes are more pronounced in higher elevations than in low elevations in winter. Seasonal runoff trends are associated with the complex interactions of climatic and topographic variables. While SWE is the most important explanatory variable for spring and winter runoff trends, precipitation has the strongest influence on fall runoff. Spatial error regression models that incorporate spatial dependence better explain the variations of runoff trends than ordinary least‐squares (OLS) multiple regression models. Our results show that long‐term trends of water balance components in the WRB could be highly affected by anthropogenic climate change, but the direction and magnitude of such changes are highly dependent on the interactions between climate change and land surface hydrology. This suggests a need for spatially explicit adaptive water resource management within the WRB under climate change. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Adaptation to the infectious disease impacts of climate change     

Kristie L. Ebi  Elisabet Lindgren  Jonathan E. Suk  Jan C. Semenza 《Climatic change》2013,118(2):355-365

Climate change has the potential to increase the challenge of preventing and controlling outbreaks of infectious diseases. An adaptation assessment is an important aspect of designing and implementing policies and measures to avoid, prepare for, and effectively respond to infectious diseases outbreaks. The main steps in conducting an adaptation assessment include: 1) evaluating the effectiveness of policies and measures that address the burden of climate-sensitive infectious diseases; 2) identifying options to manage the health risks of current and projected climate change; 3) evaluating and prioritizing the options; 4) identifying human and financial resources needs, and possible barriers, constraints, and limits to implementation; and 5) developing monitoring and evaluation programs to ensure continued effectiveness of policies and measures in a changing climate. Optimally, relevant stakeholders are optimally included throughout the adaptation assessment. Although the process of conducting an assessment is similar across nations and regions, the context and content will vary depending on local circumstances, socioeconomic conditions, legal and regulatory frameworks, and other factors. The European Centers for Disease Prevention and Control developed guidelines for conducting assessments, with sufficient consistency to facilitate learning lessons across assessments.  相似文献   

Acoustic bubble counting technique using sound speed extracted fromsound attenuation     

Bok Kyoung Choi Suk Wang Yoon 《Oceanic Engineering, IEEE Journal of》2001,26(1):125-130

Sound attenuation has been solely used to estimate bubble size distributions of bubbly water in the conventional acoustic bubble sizing methods. These conventional methods are useful for the void fraction around 10^-6 or lower. However, the change of compressibility in the bubbly water also should be considered in bubble sizing for the void fraction around 10^-5 or higher. Recently the sound speed as well as sound attenuation was considered for acoustic bubble size estimation in bubbly water. In this paper, the sound speed estimated from sound attenuation in bubbly water by an iterative method is used for a bubble counting. This new iterative inverse bubble sizing technique is numerically tested for bubble distributions of single-size Gaussian, and power-law functions. The numerical simulation results are in agreement with the given bubble distributions even for the high void fractions of 10^-4-10^-3. It suggests that the iterative inverse technique can be a very powerful tool for practical use in acoustic bubble counting in the ocean  相似文献   

Visual framework for development and use of constitutive models     

Youssef M. A. Hashash  Donald C. Wotring  John I‐Chiang Yao  Jung‐Suk Lee  Qingwei Fu 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2002,26(15):1493-1513

  相似文献   

Particle shape effect on thermal conductivity and shear wave velocity in sands     

Changho Lee  Hyoung Suk Suh  Boyeong Yoon  Tae Sup Yun 《Acta Geotechnica》2017,12(3):615-625

This study presents the correlations between quantified shape parameters and geotechnical properties for nine sand specimens. Four shape parameters, sphericity, convexity, elongation and slenderness, were quantified with two-dimensional microscopic images with the aid of image processing techniques. An instrumented oedometer cell is used to measure compressibility, thermal conductivity and shear wave velocity during loading, unloading and reloading stages. As the particle shape inherently determines the initial loose packing condition, initial void ratio and shape parameters are well correlated with compressibility. The applied stress in soils increases the interparticle contact area and contact quality; round particles tend to achieve higher thermal conductivity and shear wave velocity during stress-induced volume change. Multiple linear regression is implemented to capture the relative contributions of involved variables, revealing that the thermal evolution is governed by the initial packing density and particle shape. The experimental observations underscore the predominant effect that particle shape has on the geomechanical and physical properties upon stress-induced soil behavior.  相似文献   

Modified Mixed Lagrangian–Eulerian Method Based on Numerical Framework of MT3DMS on Cauchy Boundary          下载免费PDF全文

Heejun Suk 《Ground water》2016,54(4):508-520

MT3DMS, a modular three‐dimensional multispecies transport model, has long been a popular model in the groundwater field for simulating solute transport in the saturated zone. However, the method of characteristics (MOC), modified MOC (MMOC), and hybrid MOC (HMOC) included in MT3DMS did not treat Cauchy boundary conditions in a straightforward or rigorous manner, from a mathematical point of view. The MOC, MMOC, and HMOC regard the Cauchy boundary as a source condition. For the source, MOC, MMOC, and HMOC calculate the Lagrangian concentration by setting it equal to the cell concentration at an old time level. However, the above calculation is an approximate method because it does not involve backward tracking in MMOC and HMOC or allow performing forward tracking at the source cell in MOC. To circumvent this problem, a new scheme is proposed that avoids direct calculation of the Lagrangian concentration on the Cauchy boundary. The proposed method combines the numerical formulations of two different schemes, the finite element method (FEM) and the Eulerian–Lagrangian method (ELM), into one global matrix equation. This study demonstrates the limitation of all MT3DMS schemes, including MOC, MMOC, HMOC, and a third‐order total‐variation‐diminishing (TVD) scheme under Cauchy boundary conditions. By contrast, the proposed method always shows good agreement with the exact solution, regardless of the flow conditions. Finally, the successful application of the proposed method sheds light on the possible flexibility and capability of the MT3DMS to deal with the mass transport problems of all flow regimes.  相似文献   

What is responsible for increasing flood risks? The case of Gangwon Province,Korea   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

Heejun Chang  Jon Franczyk  Changhwan Kim 《Natural Hazards》2009,48(3):339-354

We examined the anthropogenic and natural causes of flood risks in six representative cities in the Gangwon Province of Korea. Flood damage per capita is mostly explained by cumulative upper 5% summer precipitation amount and the year. The increasing flood damage is also associated with deforestation in upstream areas and intensive land use in lowlands. Human encroachment on floodplains made these urban communities more vulnerable to floods. Without changes in the current flood management systems of these cities, their vulnerability to flood risks will remain and may even increase under changing climate conditions.  相似文献   

Space and time dynamics of urban water demand in Portland,Oregon and Phoenix,Arizona     

Seung-Jae Lee  Heejun Chang  Patricia Gober 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2015,29(4):1135-1147

  相似文献   

利用远震接收函数研究黄海周边地区的地壳上地幔结构          下载免费PDF全文

Chanho Yu  Kwang-Hee Kim  Mancheol Suh  Bongchool Suk  Paul Rydelek  Suyoung Kang  Yongcheol Park  刘劲松 《地球物理学报》2010,53(6):1336-1343

利用宽频带流动台站(YSBSN)记录的远震波形数据和远震接收函数方法,反演了黄海东、西两侧地壳上地幔的S波速度结构.结果表明,莫霍面深度在30~38 km之间变化,位于中方一侧的JNN台下方地壳厚度最大,可以归因于华北板块和扬子板块的碰撞;韩方一侧的地壳厚度自北向南逐渐变厚,但仍然难以厘定朝鲜半岛南部潜在碰撞带的位置,这些问题的解决需要更大范围的流动台站观测.由于部分台站位于巨厚的沉积层和多孔的火山岩之上,与浅部构造的相关性使得接收函数表现出较大振幅的混响,从而影响了来自深部结构的转换震相.  相似文献   

Radiolarians from the Pohang Basin,Southeast Korea and Paleoceanographic Implications     

Young-Suk BAK  Jong-Deock LEE  Hyesu YUN  Jinyong OH  Seong-Joo LEE 《《地质学报》英文版》2012,86(6):1426-1433

We identified a total of 101 species and two subspecies of radiolarians belonging to 56 genera from 95 samples collected from the Hagjeon and Duho Formations in the Pohang Basin of the southeastern Korean Peninsula. On the basis of the biostratigraphic range of Cyrtocapsella cornuta and Theocorys redondoensis, the depositional period of the upper Hagjeon and lowest Duho Formations was determined to be early to late Middle Miocene. The occurrence of deep-dwelling radiolarians indicates that the paleobathymetry seems to become gradually progressing toward an upper bathyal environment in the middle part of the Hagjeon Formation. However, we prefer to accept another interpretation for the occurrence of deep-sea indicators in the Hagjeon and the lowest part of the Duho Formations, and consider the presence of a region of upwelling cold water that might have simulated a deep-water environment in relatively shallow water. This interpretation is based on the present upwelling of a cold-water mass off the southeast coast of Korea, the occurrence of upwelling microfossils from the Pohang Basin, and the effect of the closing of the Korea Strait approximately 15 Ma. We also considered that the uppermost part of the studied section represents a shallow-water environment.  相似文献