How to improve attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts     

Heidi Kreibich  Veit Blauhut  Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts  Laurens M. Bouwer  Henny A.J. Van Lanen  Alfonso Mejia 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(Z2):1-18

ABSTRACT

For the development of sustainable, efficient risk management strategies for the hydrological extremes of droughts and floods, it is essential to understand the temporal changes of impacts, and their respective causes and interactions. In particular, little is known about changes in vulnerability and their influence on drought and flood impacts. We present a fictitious dialogue between two experts, one in droughts and the other in floods, showing that the main obstacles to scientific advancement in this area are both a lack of data and a lack of commonly accepted approaches. The drought and flood experts “discuss” available data and methods and we suggest a complementary approach. This approach consists of collecting a large number of single or multiple paired-event case studies from catchments around the world, undertaking detailed analyses of changes in impacts and drivers, and carrying out a comparative analysis. The advantages of this approach are that it allows detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the paired-event analyses, and reveals general, transferable conclusions based on the comparative analysis of various case studies. Additionally, it is quite flexible in terms of data and can accommodate differences between floods and droughts.  相似文献   

Ground-Water Systems Simulation by Time-Series Techniques   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

J.F.T. Houston 《Ground water》1983,21(3):301-310

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The Lyngen Gabbro: the lower crust of an Ordovician Incipient Arc     

Astri?J.?S.?KvassnesEmail author  Anita?Hetland?Strand  Heidi?Moen-Eikeland  Rolf?Birger?Pedersen 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2004,148(3):358-379

We present evidence for the origin of the Lyngen Gabbro of the Ordovician Lyngen Magmatic Complex in Troms, Northern Norway. The two magmatic suites of the Lyngen Gabbro strike parallel NNE-SSW, and have distinct magmatic signatures. We define these signatures by using major and trace-element analyses together with selected major- and trace-element mineral analyses and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd-isotope whole-rock analyses of gabbroic to tonalitic plutonic rocks from seven detailed cross-sections from this large gabbro-complex. The Western suite of the Lyngen Gabbro precipitated from magma that may have been derived from the same system as the associated volcanic rocks. The gabbros have high An-content (An_>90) of their plagioclases relative to co-existing mafic minerals. Together with somewhat high _Nd(t) values (+6), this implies that the parental magmas were hydrous tholeiites similar to those found in back arc basins today. The Eastern suite, on the other hand, consist of cumulates that were precipitated from melts resembling those of ultra-depleted high-Ca boninitic magmas found in fore-arcs. Extremely high-An plagioclases (An_>95) co-exist with evolved mafic minerals and oxides, and the _Nd(t) values are lower (+4) than in the Western suite. The Eastern suite has no volcanic counterpart, but dikes intersecting the suites have compositions that possibly represent its parental magma. The oceanic Rypdalen Shear Zone generally separates the two suites in the north, but several non-tectonic transitions from boninitic to tholeiitic signatures southwards advocate that the magmatism happened concurrently. The magmatic proximity between the suites, the hydrous magmatism and the absence of a silicic or calc-alkaline mature arc section, suggests that the Lyngen Gabbro formed in the Iapetus Ocean under conditions presently found in incipient arcs later emplaced as outer arc highs.  相似文献   

Seismic constraints on magma chambers at Hekla and Torfajökull volcanoes,Iceland     

Heidi?SoosaluEmail author  Páll?Einarsson 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2004,66(3):276-286

Hekla and Torfajökull are active volcanoes at a rift–transform junction in south Iceland. Despite their location next to each other they are physically and geologically very different. Hekla is an elongate stratovolcano, built mainly of basaltic andesite. Torfajökull is a prominent rhyolitic centre with a 12-km-diameter caldera and extensive geothermal activity. The scope of this study is to examine the propagation of body waves of local earthquakes across the Hekla–Torfajökull area and look for volumes of anomalous S-wave attenuation, which can be evidence of magma chambers. So far the magma chamber under Hekla has been modelled with various geophysical means, and its depth has been estimated to be 5–9 km. A data set of 118 local earthquakes, providing 663 seismic rays scanning Hekla and Torfajökull, was used in this study. The major part, 650 seismograms, did not show evidence for S-wave attenuation under these volcanoes. Only six seismograms had clear signs of S-wave attenuation and seven seismograms were uncertain cases. The data set samples Hekla well at depths of 8–14 km, and south part of it also at 4–8 km and 14–16 km. Western Torfajökull is sampled well at depths of 4–14 km, eastern and southern Torfajökull at 6–12 km. Conclusions cannot be drawn regarding the existence of magma beyond these depth ranges. Also, magma volumes of smaller dimensions than about 800 m cannot be detected with this method. If a considerable molten volume exists under Hekla, it must be located either above 4 km or below 14 km. The former possibility seems unlikely, because Hekla lacks geothermal activity and persistent seismicity, usually taken as expressions of a shallow magma chamber. An aseismic volume with a diameter of 4 km at the depth of 8 km in the west part of Torfajökull has been inferred in earlier studies and interpreted as evidence for a cooling magma chamber. Our results indicate that this volume cannot be molten to a great extent because S-waves travelling through it are not attenuated. Intense geothermal activity and low-frequency earthquakes are possibly signs of magma in the south part of Torfajökull, but a magma chamber was not detected there in the areas sampled by this study.Editorial responsibility: T. Druitt  相似文献   

Volcanic tremor related to the 1991 eruption of the Hekla volcano,Iceland     

Heidi?SoosaluEmail author  Páll?Einarsson  Steinunn?Jakobsdóttir 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2003,65(8):562-577

Volcanic tremor at the Hekla volcano is directly related to eruptive activity. It starts simultaneously with the eruptions and dies down at the end of them. No tremor at Hekla has been observed during non-eruptive times. The 1991 Hekla eruption began on 17 January, after a short warning time. Local seismograph stations recorded small premonitory earthquakes from 16:30 GMT on. At 17:02 GMT, low-frequency volcanic tremor became visible on the seismograph records, marking the onset of the eruption. The initial plinian phase of the eruption was short-lived. During the first day several fissures were active but, by the second day, the activity was already limited to a segment of one principal fissure. The eruption lasted almost 53 days. At the end of it, during the early hours of 11 March, volcanic tremor disappeared under the detection threshold and was followed by a swarm of small earthquakes. At the start of the eruption, the tremor amplitude rose rapidly and reached a maximum in only 10 min. The tremor was most vigorous during the first hour and started to decline sharply during the next hour, and later on more gently. During the eruption as a whole, the tremor had a continuous declining trend, with occasional increases lasting up to about 2 days. Spectral analysis of the tremor during the first 7 h of the eruption shows that it settled quickly, within a couple of minutes, to its characteristic frequency band, 0.5–1.5 Hz. The spectrum had typically one dominant peak at 0.7–0.9 Hz, and a few subdominant peaks. Hekla tremor likely has a shallow source. Particle motion plots suggest that it contains a significant component of surface waves. The tremor started first when the connection of the magma conduit with the atmosphere was reached, suggesting that degassing may contribute to its generation.  相似文献