全球气候模式对宁夏区域未来气候变化的情景模拟分析   总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13  

杨侃  许吟隆  陈晓光  陈楠 《气候与环境研究》2007,12(5):629-637

利用多个全球气候模式(GCM)的情景模拟结果分析只考虑温室气体效应的IS92a GG情景和同时考虑温室气体效应和硫化物气溶胶辐射效应的IS92aGS情景以及SRESA2、B2情景下宁夏区域21世纪地面气温和降水量的可能变化,并进行不确定性分析。气候基准时段(1961~1990年)模拟结果与观测资料的对比分析表明,GCM对宁夏气候具有一定的模拟能力;整体上讲,GCM对地面气温的模拟值偏低,对降水量的模拟值偏高,其中ECHAM4和HadCM3对宁夏基准时段地面气温和降水量的模拟结果与观测比较接近。各GCM模拟值的平均结果显示,4种温室气体排放情景下21世纪宁夏区域气温持续升高,至21世纪末宁夏升温幅度可达4~6℃,与全国平均的增温幅度大致相当;与升温趋势相应的是降水量的增加,但降水变化呈现出很大的波动性,至21世纪末宁夏的降水变化幅度可达10%~40%。各个GCM模拟的宁夏气候变化的总趋势是一致的,但各模式在不同情景下模拟结果的差异很大,存在较大的不确定性。  相似文献   

南极采用飞艇进行航空摄影测量的可行性探讨   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

崔洪禹  孙微  牛彦彬  刘侃 《测绘与空间地理信息》2005,28(2):6-9

随着我国对南极科考工作的加强,迫切需要新的高精度的地形图资料。而由于南极特殊地域的限制,要求作业时间要尽可能地短,基于这种情况,在南极两站地区采用飞艇航摄手段获取高精度的两站地形图将成为最佳的可行手段。  相似文献   

The δ13C–δ18O variations in marble in the Hida Belt,Japan     

Hironobu Harada  Tatsuki Tsujimori  Keitaro Kunugiza  Katsuyuki Yamashita  Shogo Aoki  Kazumasa Aoki  Hideko Takayanagi  Yasufumi Iryu 《Island Arc》2021,30(1):e12389

Marble has a great potential to understand a history of various geological events occurring during tectonic processes. In order to decode metamorphic–metasomatic records on C–O isotope compositions of marble at mid-crustal conditions, we conducted a C–O–Sr isotope study on upper amphibolite-facies marbles and a carbonate–silicate rock from the Hida Belt, which was once a part of the crustal basement of the East Asian continental margin. Carbon and oxygen isotope analyses of calcite from marbles (Kamioka area) and a carbonate–silicate rock (Wadagawa area) show a large variation of δ¹³C [VPDB] and δ¹⁸O [VSMOW] values (from −4.4 to +4.2 ‰ and +1.6 to +20.8 ‰, respectively). The low δ¹³C values of calcites from the carbonate–silicate rock (from −4.4 to −2.9 ‰) can be explained by decarbonation (CO₂ releasing) reactions; carbon–oxygen isotope modeling suggests that a decrease of δ¹³C strongly depends on the amount of silicate reacting with carbonates. The occurrence of metamorphic clinopyroxene in marbles indicates that all samples have been affected by decarbonation reactions. All δ¹⁸O values of calcites are remarkably lower than the marine-carbonate values. The large δ¹⁸O variation can be explained by the isotope exchange via interactions between marble, external fluids, and/or silicates. Remarkably low δ¹⁸O values of marbles that are lower than mantle value (~+5 ‰) suggest the interaction with meteoric water at a later stage. Sr isotope ratios (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr = 0.707255–0.708220) might be close to their protolith values. One zircon associated with wollastonite in a marble thin-section yields a U–Pb age of 222 ± 3 Ma, which represents the timing of the recrystallization of marble, triggered by H₂O-rich fluid infiltration at a relatively high-temperature condition. Our isotope study implies that the upper amphibolite-facies condition, like the Hida Belt, might be appropriate to cause decarbonation reactions which can modify original isotope compositions of marble if carbonates react with silicates.  相似文献   

Ordovician Granitoids and Silurian Mafic Dikes in the Western Kunlun Orogen, Northwest China: Implications for Evolution of the Proto-Tethys     

ZHANG Qichao  WU Zhenhan  LI Shan  LI Kan  LIU Zhiwei  ZHOU Qing 《《地质学报》英文版》2019,93(1):30-49

The western Kunlun orogen in the northwest Tibet Plateau is related to subduction and collision of Proto-and Paleo-Tethys from early Paleozoic to early Mesozoic. This paper presents new LA-ICPMS zircon U-Pb ages and Lu-Hf isotopes, whole-rock major and trace elements, and Sr–Nd isotopes of two Ordovician granitoid plutons(466–455 Ma) and their Silurian mafic dikes(～436 Ma) in the western Kunlun orogen. These granitoids show peraluminous high-K calcalkaline characteristics, with(⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)_i value of 0.7129–0.7224, ε_Nd(t) values of -9.3 to -7.0 and zircon ε_Hf(t) values of -17.3 to -0.2, indicating that they were formed by partial melting of ancient lower-crust(metaigneous rocks mixed with metasedimentary rocks) with some mantle materials in response to subduction of the Proto-Tethyan Ocean and following collision. The Silurian mafic dikes were considered to have been derived from a low degree of partial melting of primary mafic magma. These mafic dikes show initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of 0.7101–0.7152 and ε_Nd(t) values of -3.8 to -3.4 and zircon ε_Hf(t) values of -8.8 to -4.9, indicating that they were derived from enriched mantle in response to post-collisional slab break-off. Combined with regional geology, our new data provide valuable insight into late evolution of the Proto-Tethys.  相似文献   

Late Triassic granites from the northwestern margin of the Tibetan Plateau,the Dahongliutan example: petrogenesis and tectonic implications for the evolution of the Kangxiwa Palaeo-Tethys   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Qichao Zhang  Zhenhan Wu  He Huang  Kan Li  Qing Zhou 《International Geology Review》2019,61(2):175-194

The Dahongliutan granitic pluton consists of two-mica granites and is located in the eastern part of the Western Kunlun Orogen, northwestern Tibetan Plateau. Zircon separates from the pluton yield a SIMS U–Pb age of 217.5 ± 2.8 Ma. Rocks from the pluton contain relatively high and uniform SiO₂ (72.32–73.48 wt%) and total alkalis (Na₂O + K₂O = 8.07–8.67 wt%) and are peraluminous and high-K calc-alkaline to shoshonitic in composition. The Dahongliutan granites are relatively depleted in the high-field-strength elements and the heavy rare earth elements (HREEs) and have relatively high Rb, and low Ba and Sr concentrations. They contain low total rare earth element (REE) concentrations. The light REEs are strongly enriched relative to the HREEs, with (La/Yb)_N values of 28.56–37.01. The ε_Nd(t) values range from ?10.6 to ?8.8, and (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)_i = 0.7142–0.7210. Zircons from the pluton yield ε_Hf(t) values of ?13.8 to ?1.6, and δ¹⁸O = 10.5–11.6‰. Petrographic and geochemical features of the pluton indicate that the granites are S-type and were derived from parting melting of a mixture of metasedimentary and minor metaigneous sources in the middle–lower crust. Magmatic differentiation was dominated by the fractional crystallization of plagioclase, K-feldspar, muscovite, biotite, and accessory monazite, allanite, and Fe–Ti oxides. Regional granitoids were emplaced in the Early-to-Middle Triassic. Other younger granitoids, with ages of 240–200 Ma, are mostly I-type in character and were likely derived from multiple types of source rock, suggesting the source was heterogeneous Triassic crust. Such a scenario is consistent with their formation in a post-collisional setting. Our new data, combined with other geological evidence, suggest that the collision between the Tianshuihai and southern Kunlun terranes occurred between ca. 250 and 240 Ma, resulting in the closure of the Palaeo-Tethys. Post-collisional tectono-magmatic events may have occurred between 240 and 200 Ma.  相似文献   

杭州商业街道空间布局形态关键要素对周边风环境的影响     

应小宇  阚琪 《地理科学》2018,38(12):2093-2099

利用基于计算流体力学（CFD）理论的数值模拟软件,在不影响街道连续性面貌的前提下,通过控制变量法分别改变街道贴线率、街道界面密度、街道高宽比3个关键要素的数值来观察街道风环境的变化情况。结论主要有： 街道内的风速大小随着街道贴线率的增大呈抛物线趋势变化,先增大后减小,在街道贴线率接近70%时,城市街道内风速达到最大; 随着界面密度的不断减小,城市街道内各个测点的风速变化的幅度越来越大,这样会让在其中行走的行人感受到强烈的风速变化,舒适度大为下降; 城市街道内的平均风速和街道高宽比成反比例关系。  相似文献   

北京几次弱降水过程预报失误分析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

孙军  马学款  代刊  符娇兰  董林  秦华锋  董全 《气象》2018,44(1):26-41

在选取的北京地区2011年冬季至2012年春季9次弱降水过程中,预报员出现了4次空报、2次漏报,预报效果总体不理想。通过对9次过程的预报检验、天气分析和多模式预报对比,得到如下认识:北京地区弱降水过程天气形势复杂多样,按高空大气环流形势可分为两槽一脊型、一槽两脊型、一槽一脊型,按地面天气形势可分为冷锋型、华北锢囚锋型、东风与倒槽型和东风回流型;弱降水过程普遍具有对流层低层水汽条件差或动力抬升弱的特点;对湿层浅薄、饱和层高度高、抬升凝结高度高的弱降水过程,数值模式容易出现空报;而对低层湿度条件好、饱和层高度低、抬升凝结高度低但高空系统弱的降水过程,模式又容易出现漏报;预报员主观预报出现空、漏报主要源于对天气系统的结构及发生发展机理认识不足,对边界层水汽、抬升等关键降水要素缺乏预报订正经验。  相似文献   

“7·20”华北强暴雨集合预报的中期预报转折和不确定性分析   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

王毅  马杰  代刊 《气象》2018,44(1):53-64

中央气象台主观预报和数值模式对2016年7月20日华北强暴雨过程的中期预报出现了一定的误差,本文利用ECMWF(简称EC)集合预报和T639集合预报等资料对"7·20"华北强暴雨过程的中期预报效果进行了分析,结果发现:(1)EC集合预报在7月16日前后对降雨区及强度的预报出现了明显转折,其因是大尺度影响天气系统的预报发生了转折性变化,7月16日20:00起报的环流形势集合平均场对比15日20:00起报场显示,在河套地区附近500hPa低槽发展更深,其下游华北高压脊也更强,形成了移动缓慢"东高西低"的环流型,黄河气旋及中低层西南涡北抬加强,导致降雨预报更接近于实况;(2)集合敏感性分析发现对降雨中期预报敏感的区域与转折前后预报的环流差异的分布型一致,引起降雨预报转折的影响系统也是降雨中期预报不确定性的来源;(3)对于降雨预报最敏感的环流系统是黄河气旋,集合成员预报的黄河气旋偏西偏北,强度越强,则预报的京津冀地区降水量越大。  相似文献   

资源环境承载能力预警的超载成因分析方法及应用     

徐勇  张雪飞  周侃  王传胜  徐小任 《地理科学进展》2017,36(3):277-285

建立资源环境承载能力监测预警机制和对超载区域实行限制性措施是中央全面深化改革的一项重大任务,而超载成因分析既是资源环境承载能力监测预警技术方法的重要组成内容,也是制定超载区域限制性政策的基础。本文在搭建超载成因分析总体框架、阐述关键因素识别和成因分析方法的基础上,梳理总结了陆域/海域基础和专项评价结果以及综合预警超载成因分析的要点,进而在京津冀地区进行了实证应用。研究结果表明,导致京津冀地区资源环境超载的因素涉及自然、发展和管理各个类别,但关键因素的作用程度及其组合叠加状况在基础评价结果、专项评价结果和综合预警超载成因方面存在较大差异;水资源严重短缺、地形和气象等自然条件是导致超载的基础原因;人口和产业过度集聚以及低端产业、能源消费结构等发展类因素是超载的首要原因;内海净化能力差和海域生态退化、海岸开发强度大综合导致了海域生态环境超载;现行的资源环境管理政策尚不具备有效遏制和解决资源环境超载的能力。既有的超载成因分析框架、方法及要点可供各省、市、自治区开展资源环境承载能力监测预警借鉴。  相似文献   

海湾扇贝幼虫变态诱导研究     

洪旭光  杨宇  阚金军  吴宝铃 《海洋科学进展》1998,(3)

本文在实验室条件下研究了海湾扇贝幼虫的诱导变态。研究结果表明肾上腺素、去甲肾上腺素、ｃ－ＡＭＰ、ＧＡＢＡ、赖氨酸和ＫＣｌ等６种诱导剂中,ＫＣｌ对海湾扇贝幼虫的变态诱导效果非常显著。ＫＣｌ对幼虫的诱导效应随ＫＣｌ浓度和作用时间的增加而增大,过高浓度则抑制幼虫的变态。受精１３ｄ后幼虫（２２±１℃）才对ＫＣｌ的作用着重产生明显反应。这为生产上提供了一种方便、价廉、安全的诱导变态方法,在海湾扇贝育苗工作有很大的应用前景。  相似文献