气候变化背景下我国灾害风险治理路径初探          下载免费PDF全文

张亚妮  胡德勇  于琛  张旸  段欣 《气象与减灾研究》2019,42(1):64-69

在全球气候变化背景下,自然灾害风险加剧,传统以政府为主体的灾害管理体制和机制已经无法有效应对自然灾害,因此开展国家在气候变化背景下的自然灾害综合风险治理具有重要意义和紧迫性。本文介绍了我国灾害管理体制的发展历程及转型过程,提出关于我国气候变化的自然灾害综合风险治理具体路径的建议措施,包括完善自然灾害综合风险治理体系,实现五个长效机制,加强应对气候变化的风险研究。  相似文献   

二级生化出水化学法深度除磷实验     

方华  万震  江玒  冯锡杰 《南京气象学院学报》2013,5(5):462-465

以二级生化出水为对象,采用4种常规除磷剂开展了化学法深度除磷和投药量经验系数法研究.研究结果表明,FeCl₃在pH为7.5、投加量为6.5 mg/L条件下,Al₂(SO₄)₃在pH为6、投加量为3.75 mg/L条件下,可使出水总磷小于0.5 mg/L,且处理费用低廉,是生化出水深度除磷的适宜药剂.FeCl₃在除磷的同时,对COD也具有较好的去除效果,可作为总磷和COD均超标的二级生化出水深度处理的有效途径.投药量经验系数法可根据原水和出水的磷质量浓度,估算出除磷剂投加量,在工程实践中具有较大的参考价值.  相似文献   

Accuracy validation of TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis daily precipitation products in the Lancang River Basin of China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Hongwei Zeng  Lijuan Li  Jinming Hu  Liqiao Liang  Jiuyi Li  Bin Li  Kai Zhang 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,112(3-4):389-401

Using statistical methods and contingency table method, this paper evaluates the accuracy of 12 years (1998–2009) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) daily-accumulated precipitation products within a year, the dry season, and rain season for each of the five subbasins and for each grid point (0.25?×?0.25°) in the Lancang River basin by comparing the results with data from the 35 rain gauges. The results indicate that TMPA daily precipitation estimates tend to show an underestimation comparing to the rain gauge daily precipitations under any scenarios, especially for the middle stream in the dry season. The accuracy of TMPA-averaged precipitation deteriorates with the increase of elevation at both basin and grid scale, with upstream and downstream having the worst and best accuracy, respectively. A fair capability was shown when using daily TMPA accumulations to detect rain events at drizzle rain and this capability improves with the increase of elevation. However, the capability deteriorates when it is used to detect moderate rain and heavy rain events. The accuracy of TMPA precipitation estimate products is better in the rain season than in the dry season at all scenarios. Time difference and elevation are the main factors that have impact on the accuracy of TMPA daily-accumulated precipitation products.  相似文献   

Improved reliability of ENSO hindcasts with multi-ocean analyses ensemble initialization     

Jieshun Zhu  Bohua Huang  Magdalena A. Balmaseda  James L. Kinter III  Peitao Peng  Zeng-Zhen Hu  Lawrence Marx 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(9-10):2785-2795

Currently, ensemble seasonal forecasts using a single model with multiple perturbed initial conditions generally suffer from an “overconfidence” problem, i.e., the ensemble evolves such that the spread among members is small, compared to the magnitude of the mean error. This has motivated the use of a multi-model ensemble (MME), a technique that aims at sampling the structural uncertainty in the forecasting system. Here we investigate how the structural uncertainty in the ocean initial conditions impacts the reliability in seasonal forecasts, by using a new ensemble generation method to be referred to as the multiple-ocean analysis ensemble (MAE) initialization. In the MAE method, multiple ocean analyses are used to build an ensemble of ocean initial states, thus sampling structural uncertainties in oceanic initial conditions (OIC) originating from errors in the ocean model, the forcing flux, and the measurements, especially in areas and times of insufficient observations, as well as from the dependence on data assimilation methods. The merit of MAE initialization is demonstrated by the improved El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasting reliability. In particular, compared with the atmospheric perturbation or lagged ensemble approaches, the MAE initialization more effectively enhances ensemble dispersion in ENSO forecasting. A quantitative probabilistic measure of reliability also indicates that the MAE method performs better in forecasting all three (warm, neutral and cold) categories of ENSO events. In addition to improving seasonal forecasts, the MAE strategy may be used to identify the characteristics of the current structural uncertainty and as guidance for improving the observational network and assimilation strategy. Moreover, although the MAE method is not expected to totally correct the overconfidence of seasonal forecasts, our results demonstrate that OIC uncertainty is one of the major sources of forecast overconfidence, and suggest that the MAE is an essential component of an MME system.  相似文献   

皖江一次大暴雨多普勒天气雷达回波分析     

张克杰  赵青松  张华  杨开围  王文本  王玉红 《气象科技》2013,41(6):1101-1108

利用合肥多普勒天气雷达回波和各种常规资料,对2010年梅雨期皖江一次大暴雨天气过程的雷达回波进行分析,探讨短时大暴雨的回波特征。结果表明：有利的大尺度环流,充足的水汽条件和较强的上升运动是产生强降水有利的天气背景。雷达资料分析发现形成此次皖江暴雨的源地位于大别山区,强降水是由局地发展的对流回波加强合并产生的,回波的发生和发展加强常常与风场的局地强辐合区（逆风区）相联系,雨带在中低空切变线上合并加强,强降水区域尺度较大,单体回波移向和雨带走向一致,回波移动缓慢或呈准静止状态,累积雨量大,易于形成暴雨。  相似文献   

重庆主城区一次重度霾天气过程分析     

江文华  陈道劲  胡春梅 《气象科技》2013,41(2):343-346

利用NCEP再分析资料、L波段雷达探空资料、常规气象资料及自动气象站资料和空气污染资料,对2005年12月25-28日重庆主城区一次重度霾天气过程进行了分析.结果表明:此次重度霾天气过程发生在一定天气背景下,500 hPa青藏高原南侧南支槽槽区宽广,槽前西南气流较为强盛,850 hPa重庆地区持续处于均压场控制,气压梯度小,水平风速弱,且影响重庆地区的冷空气活动少、强度弱,有利于重度霾的形成和维持;低层风速较小、中低层逆温层的持续存在、气温较低也是此次重度霾形成和维持的重要条件;在未达到饱和的情况下,适当增加湿度有利于霾的加强,霾天气过程中,气溶胶粒子的吸湿增长会使能见度更加恶化.  相似文献   

江西省“三农”服务专项建设现状与思考   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

杨爱萍  林秋  蔡哲  刘文英  姚俊萌  郭瑞鸽 《气象与减灾研究》2015,38(2):59-63

通过对江西省24个"三农"服务专项建设实施地的"两个体系"建设情况开展实地调查,分析了江西省"三农"服务专项建设在提高气象为农服务现代化、促进气象工作政府化、惠民利民等三方面取得的成效,总结了各地的建设内容、成功经验、工作亮点和特色,梳理了存在的问题,并结合建设现状和有关要求,对今后江西省"三农"服务专项建设提出了六个方面的具体建议。  相似文献   

NanoSIMS analysis of organic carbon from the Tissint Martian meteorite: Evidence for the past existence of subsurface organic‐bearing fluids on Mars     

Yangting Lin  Ahmed El Goresy  Sen Hu  Jianchao Zhang  Philippe Gillet  Yuchen Xu  Jialong Hao  Masaaki Miyahara  Ziyuan Ouyang  Eiji Ohtani  Lin Xu  Wei Yang  Lu Feng  Xuchao Zhao  Jing Yang  Shin Ozawa 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2014,49(12):2201-2218

Two petrographic settings of carbonaceous components, mainly filling open fractures and occasionally enclosed in shock‐melt veins, were found in the recently fallen Tissint Martian meteorite. The presence in shock‐melt veins and the deuterium enrichments (δD up to +1183‰) of these components clearly indicate a pristine Martian origin. The carbonaceous components are kerogen‐like, based on micro‐Raman spectra and multielemental ratios, and were probably deposited from fluids in shock‐induced fractures in the parent rock of Tissint. After precipitation of the organic matter, the rock experienced another severe shock event, producing the melt veins that encapsulated a part of the organic matter. The C isotopic compositions of the organic matter (δ¹³C = ?12.8 to ?33.1‰) are significantly lighter than Martian atmospheric CO₂ and carbonate, providing a tantalizing hint for a possible biotic process. Alternatively, the organic matter could be derived from carbonaceous chondrites, as insoluble organic matter from the latter has similar chemical and isotopic compositions. The presence of organic‐rich fluids that infiltrated rocks near the surface of Mars has significant implications for the study of Martian paleoenvironment and perhaps to search for possible ancient biological activities on Mars.  相似文献   

东昆仑三维重力异常解释方法研究     

胡宁 《青海国土经略》1996,(2)

小波变换是一种广泛应用的信号处理技术,它具有良好的时—频局部化特性。本文探讨了小波变换在分解重力异常中的应用。同时,利用计算机对重力资料的三维定量解释,进行了初步试算。通过东昆仑地区实际资料处理,认为这二种方法在重力资料处理解释中,具有快速、简捷的特点。  相似文献   

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF INTERANNUAL AND INTERDECADAL VARIABILITY OF SURFACE WIND OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

吴爱明  赵永平  白学志  胡敦欣 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2002,20(1):1-8

A global atmospheric general circulation model (L9R15 AGCMs) forced by COADS SST was integrated from 1945 to 1993. Interannual and interdecadal variability of the simulated surface wind over the tropical Pacific was analyzed and shown to agree vey well with observation. Simulation of surface wind over the central-western equatorial Pacific was more successful than that over the eastern Pacific. Zonal propagating feature of interannual variability of the tropical Pacific wind anomalies and its decadal difference were also simulated successfully. The close agreement between simulation and observation on the existence of obvious interdecadal variability of tropical Pacific surface wind attested to the high simulation capability of AGCM.  相似文献