A probabilistic approach for earthquake risk assessment based on an engineering insurance portfolio     

Wen-Ko Hsu  Wei-Ling Chiang  Qiang Xue  Dung-Mou Hung  Pei-Chun Huang  Cheng-Wu Chen  Chung-Hung Tsai 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(3):1559-1571

This paper presents the construction classification of the existing engineering covers in Taiwan. The exposure profile and variable vulnerability during different construction phases are established for some kinds of classes of construction. Finally, we present a method and framework to estimate the probable maximum loss of engineering insurance portfolio during an earthquake with consideration of the dynamic nature of structural changes and exposure values during a construction project.  相似文献   

Integrating long-term seismic risk changes into improving emergency response and land-use planning: a case study for the Hsinchu City, Taiwan   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Hung-Chih Hung  Ming-Chin Ho  Yi-Jie Chen  Chang-Yi Chian  Su-Ying Chen 《Natural Hazards》2013,69(1):491-508

An increasing number of rapidly growing urban areas in Asia are becoming more vulnerable to seismic hazards in their development process. However, local authorities rarely integrate seismic risk into the procedure of emergency and land-use planning. This article explores the question of whether seismic risks for urban areas are increasing or diminishing over time, while trends such as population growth and land development in hazard-prone areas increase the potential for loss in disasters. The net effects of such urbanization factors are examined through the use of simulation models that estimate building inventory and seismic loss changes. Seismic losses are modeled for a comparative analysis under the same hypothetical earthquake events hitting at different points in a city area’s long-term development. A case study of seismic risk assessments is illustrated by the Hsinchu City, Taiwan. Results of a prospective analysis indicate that, for the same seismic events, overall risk is expected to increase due to a forecast 2.9 % growth in building inventory. This increment in loss is largely attributed to a large amount of initial buildings predicted to be developed into commercial and industrial uses. However, the spatial pattern of risk would change slightly; particularly, the southeastern, eastern, and some older core areas would be the most vulnerable and risky both at current and future time periods. The approach here enables city planners to incorporate seismic risk analysis into predisaster emergency and land-use planning to encourage risk-reduction strategies.  相似文献   

A computational finite‐element program for hybrid simulation     

Victor Saouma  Dae‐Hung Kang  Gary Haussmann 《地震工程与结构动力学》2012,41(3):375-389

The essence of real time hybrid simulation (RTHS) is the reliance on a physical test (virtual finite element) in support of a numerical simulation, which is unable to properly simulate it numerically. Hence, the computational support for a hybrid simulation is of paramount importance, and one with anything less than a state of the art computational support may defeat the purpose of such an endeavor. A critical, yet often ignored, component of RTHS is precisely the computational engine, which unfortunately has been a bottleneck for realistic studies. Most researches have focused on either the control or on the communication (mostly in distributed, non‐real time hybrid simulation) leaving the third leg of RTHS (computation) ignored and limited to the simulation of simple models (small number of degrees of freedom and limited nonlinearities). This paper details the development of a specialized software written explicitly to perform, single site, hybrid simulation ranging from pseudo‐dynamic to hard real time ones. Solution strategy, implementation details, and actual applications are reported. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Seismic design and testing of the bottom vertical boundary elements in steel plate shear walls. Part 2: experimental studies          下载免费PDF全文

Chao‐Hsien Li  Keh‐Chyuan Tsai  Hung‐Chi Lee 《地震工程与结构动力学》2014,43(14):2155-2177

This paper describes an experiment to investigate the seismic design and responses of the bottom column, also called the bottom vertical boundary element (VBE), in steel plate shear walls (SPSWs). The main objectives of this experiment include validating the effectiveness of the design method developed in the companion paper, investigating the experimental performance of VBEs under large interstory drifts, and calibrating analytical models for earthquake engineering of SPSWs. Three full‐scale two‐story SPSWs were cyclically tested at the Taiwan National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering in 2011. Test results and numerical simulations confirm that the proposed design procedures are effective in predicting the plastic zone forming elevation in the lower half of the bottom VBE and the occurrence of yielding at the VBE's top end. Test results show that the premature yielding occurring at the top end of a bottom VBE would result in a deformation concentration at the bottom of SPSWs. In addition, lateral torsional buckling could take place on the bottom VBE after significant plastic rotations have developed at the top end. Test results suggest that preventing the VBE's top end from yielding is the key issue in the seismic design of SPSWs, and the proposed method can be effectively adopted to achieve this objective. Furthermore, the inelastic responses of the SPSW specimens were satisfactorily simulated by using detailed finite shell elements or simplified frame response analysis models. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Comparison of metal accumulation in the azooxanthellate scleractinian coral (Tubastraea coccinea) from different polluted environments     

Isani Chan  Jia-Jang Hung  Shao-Hung Peng  Li-Chun Tseng  Tung-Yuan Ho  Jiang-Shiou Hwang 《Marine pollution bulletin》2014

The response of metal accumulation in coral Tubastraea coccinea to various degrees of metal enrichment was investigated from the Yin-Yang Sea (YYS) receiving abandoned mining effluents, the Kueishan Islet (KI) hydrothermal vent field, and the nearshore area of remoted Green Island (GI). The concentrations of most dissolved metals were highest in seawater at YYS, followed by KI, and then GI, showing the effects of anthropogenic and venting inputs on metal levels. Five metals (Co, Fe, Mn, Ni, and Zn) yielded significant differences (p < 0.05) among the skeleton samples. We identified similar patterns in the metal–Ca ratios, indicating that the elevated metals in skeletons was a consequence of external inputs. The coral tissues were relatively sensitive in monitoring metal accumulation, showing significant differences among three locations for Cd, Co, Cu, Fe, Pb, Ni, and Zn. Specific bioconcentration factors provided strong support for the differential metal accumulation in skeletons and tissues.  相似文献   

Total and organic mercury concentrations in the muscles of Pacific albacore (Thunnus alalunga) and bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus)     

Chiee-Young Chen  Chien-Cheng Lai  Kuo-Shu Chen  Chien-Chung Hsu  Chin-Chang Hung  Meng-Hsien Chen 《Marine pollution bulletin》2014

Muscles of 115 North Pacific albacore (ALB, Thunnus alalunga) and 75 Pacific bigeye tuna (BET, Thunnus obesus), collected from 2001 to 2006, were analyzed. No ALB, but 13 large BET had organic mercury (OHg) concentrations exceeding 1 μg g⁻¹ wet weight. For both ALB and BET, total mercury (THg) and OHg concentrations were significantly and positively correlated with fork length (FL) and body weight. The muscle Hg bioaccumulation rates of BET were higher than those of ALB, particularly in the adult fish. Moreover, the lines had crossover points among the two species that imply the young BET (FL < 110 cm) contains lower muscle Hg concentrations than ALB of the same size. The suggested weekly dietary intake of ALB and small-BET meats is 340 g, and of BET meat it is 150 g for a 60-kg person based on the provisional tolerable weekly intake (PTWI) of methylmercury set by the WHO.  相似文献   

Stochastic model for hepatitis B virus infection through maternal (vertical) and environmental (horizontal) transmission with applications to basic reproductive number estimation and economic appraisal of preventive strategies     

Hui-Fang Hung  Ya-Chuan Wang  Amy Ming-Fang Yen  Hsiu-Hsi Chen 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(3):611-625

Elucidating the temporal natural history of Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection provides not only useful information for assessing the spread of HBV infection but also a bedrock for economic appraisal of population-based preventive strategies (such as universal vaccination). HBV transmissions are transmitted through the maternal (vertical) route and environmental (horizontal) route. As the infection process from susceptible to active virus replication and finally to recovery state or to carrier state through both routes is not directly observable, mathematical models were therefore proposed to quantitatively elucidate the dynamic process of HBV infection with time. We began with a simple two-state model (from susceptible to infection) and further developed a five-state (including susceptible, latent phase, active viral replication, carrier, and recovery states) stochastic process to quantify the dynamics of HBV infection, making allowances for a mixed proportion of vertical and horizontal transmissions. The data used in the estimation, which were collected before implementation of a policy for universal HBV vaccination, were derived from several previous serum prevalence studies, including both low (northern) and high (southern) HBV prevalence areas, in Taiwan. The parameters obtained from stochastic models were converted to compute the basic reproductive number (R₀) in each study to indicate the extent of the spread of HBV infection. By linking the temporal natural history of HBV infection with the previously established Markov process for the sequelae of HBV infection (chronic hepatitis infection, liver cirrhosis, and hepatocelluar carcinoma), we developed a Markov cycle decision tree to evaluate the two population-based preventive strategies related to vaccination and maternal lamivudine use with a cost-effectiveness analysis. In the five-state model, horizontal transmission was found to contribute more to HBV infection than vertical transmission in the northern area (59 vs. 41 %), whereas vertical transmission was more likely than horizontal transmission in the southern area (80 vs. 20 %). After considering the parameters of the two transmission routes, annual infection rate (person-years) for susceptible subjects was higher in the northern area (0.35) than the southern area (0.011). A similar finding was noted for annual rate of the transition from the latent period to active viral replications (1.12 in the northern area and 0.072 in the southern area). Annual rate of the conversion from active viral replication to the carrier state was higher in the southern area (0.184) than the northern area (0.119). Annual recovery rates were 0.014 in the northern area and 0.024 in the southern area for the carrier and 0.048 and 0.088 for transient viremia. The R₀ at age 30 using the parameters obtained from the five-state stochastic model was estimated as 4.88 in the northern and 7.03 in the southern area. Regarding the findings of economic appraisal, both preventive strategies were cost-saving, yielding the negative value of incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, compared with the baseline group (no intervention), regardless of areas. The preventive strategies in the southern area were more cost-saving than those in the northern area. The consolidation of elucidating the temporal natural history of HBV infection, estimating basic reproductive number, and conducting an economic appraisal of population-based preventive strategy can aid health policy-makers in designing effective preventive strategies in other countries worldwide where HBV is still prevalent. However, the empirical findings on transmission routes and the temporal evolution of HBV infection varying with areas should be considered with great caution as only two studies were modeled.  相似文献   

Shear wave velocity measurements and soil–pile system identifications in dynamic centrifuge tests     

Chung-Jung Lee  Wen-Yi Hung  Chen-Hui Tsai  Ting Chen  Yichun Tu  Chin-Cheng Huang 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2014,12(2):717-734

This paper presents a pre-shaking technique for measuring the $V_{s}$ profile of sand deposits and determining the natural frequencies of the sand bed and soil-structure system in a centrifuge model at an acceleration of 80 g. The pre-shaking technique is a non-destructive test. It uses a shaker as a wave generation source and a vertical array of accelerometers embedded in the sand bed and the accelerometers attached to the pile head as receivers. The pre-shaking method can be easily used for in-flight subsurface exploration ( $V_{s}$ profile measurements) and in-flight system identification of soil-structure systems (natural frequency measurements). A soil–pile centrifuge model is used to demonstrate the versatility of pre-shaking during a routine centrifuge shaking table test. This paper discusses the testing setup, testing procedures, related SI techniques, and signal processing for the soil–pile system. The natural frequencies measured by the pre-shaking tests are consistent with theory-based results. This technique can be conducted at any time before and after major earthquake events occur in a test.  相似文献   

Features of the Distribution of Abnormal Gasgeochemical Fields in the Red River Rift (Gulf of Tonkin,South China Sea)     

Shakirov  R. B.  Hung  Duong Quoc  Syrbu  N. S.  Anh  Le Duc  Obzhirov  A. I.  Borzova  O. V.  Okulov  A. K.  Van Nam  Bui  Van Diep  Nguyen  Dong  Mai Duc  Legkodimov  A. A.  Shakirova  M. V.  Ponomareva  A. L.  Bakunina  M. S. 《Doklady Earth Sciences》2019,484(2):181-184

Doklady Earth Sciences - This paper reports the results of the third Russian–Vietnamese expedition (V.I. Il'ichev Pacific Oceanological Institute, Far East Branch, Russian Academy of...  相似文献   

东南亚断裂构造的演化     

高庭朝  阮友宣  黎文勇  范南雄  Mai Xuan Bach  Thai Anh Tuan 《大地测量与地球动力学》2005,25(1):51-60

本研究项目是采用诸如地质学解释、影像判读和地球物理探测等多种方法相结合进行的。在所得结果的基础上参考了越南国内外同行的一些资料编制了东南亚、越南及邻区的断裂构造图．其比例尺分别为1：4百万和1：1百万。分析所得结果显示出东南亚断裂构造演化的下列情况：1)在现今地质结构方面东南亚是欧亚岩石圈板块的东南部分．由一条消减带围绕．这条消减带的伸展从Myanmer开始,通过Nicobar,Java Timor直到东菲律宾。东南亚被Song Hong(即红河)断裂,Three Pagodas断裂和Hainam-Natuna断裂等2级断裂系统分成3个微板块。2)在早新生代．东南亚是分为5个微板块的。它们的分界断裂中有2个一级断裂(中央东海扩张带和Lupar-Kuching消减带)和3个二级断裂(即上述3个)。3)上述绝大多数二和三级断裂从晚新生代起活化且继承了从早新生代即已发生和发展了的二、三级断裂,但在某些条件下．运动方向却完全变成了相反,尤其是走滑运动的方向。我们的研究结果表明：在这一地区内,盆地、隆起、岩浆侵入、褶皱和局部断裂等构造的形成都取决于这些沿着一、二级走滑断裂的微板块运动。  相似文献