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151.
152.
A tracer plume was created within a thin aquifer by injection for 299 d of two adjacent “sub‐plumes” to represent one type of plume heterogeneity encountered in practice. The plume was monitored by snapshot sampling of transects of fully screened wells. The mass injection rate and total mass injected were known. Using all wells in each transect (0.77 m well spacing, 1.4 points/m2 sampling density), the Theissen Polygon Method (TPM) yielded apparently accurate mass discharge (Md) estimates at three transects for 12 snapshots. When applied to hypothetical sparser transects using subsets of the wells with average spacing and sampling density from 1.55 to 5.39 m and 0.70 to 0.20 points/m2, respectively, the TPM accuracy depended on well spacing and location of the wells in the hypothesized transect with respect to the sub‐plumes. Potential error was relatively low when the well spacing was less than the widths of the sub‐plumes (>0.35 points/m2). Potential error increased for well spacing similar to or greater than the sub‐plume widths, or when less than 1% of the plume area was sampled. For low density sampling of laterally heterogeneous plumes, small changes in groundwater flow direction can lead to wide fluctuations in Md estimates by the TPM. However, sampling conducted when flow is known or likely to be in a preferred direction can potentially allow more useful comparisons of Md over multiyear time frames, such as required for performance evaluation of natural attenuation or engineered remediation systems.  相似文献   
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Trade-wind cumuli constitute the cloud type with the highest frequency of occurrence on Earth, and it has been shown that their sensitivity to changing environmental conditions will critically influence the magnitude and pace of future global warming. Research over the last decade has pointed out the importance of the interplay between clouds, convection and circulation in controling this sensitivity. Numerical models represent this interplay in diverse ways, which translates into different responses of trade-cumuli to climate perturbations. Climate models predict that the area covered by shallow cumuli at cloud base is very sensitive to changes in environmental conditions, while process models suggest the opposite. To understand and resolve this contradiction, we propose to organize a field campaign aimed at quantifying the physical properties of trade-cumuli (e.g., cloud fraction and water content) as a function of the large-scale environment. Beyond a better understanding of clouds-circulation coupling processes, the campaign will provide a reference data set that may be used as a benchmark for advancing the modelling and the satellite remote sensing of clouds and circulation. It will also be an opportunity for complementary investigations such as evaluating model convective parameterizations or studying the role of ocean mesoscale eddies in air–sea interactions and convective organization.  相似文献   
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A time-dependent generalized extreme value (GEV) model for monthly significant wave heights maxima is developed. The model is applied to several 3-hour time series from the Spanish buoy network. Monthly maxima show a clear non-stationary behavior within a year, suggesting that the location, scale and shape parameters of the GEV distribution can be parameterized using harmonic functions. To avoid a possible over-parameterization, an automatic selection model, based on the Akaike Information Criterion, is carried out. Results show that the non-stationary behavior of monthly maxima significant wave height is adequately modeled, drastically increasing the significance of the parameters involved and reducing the uncertainty in the return level estimation. The model provides new information to analyze the seasonal behavior of wave height extremes affecting different natural coastal processes.  相似文献   
157.
The spatial and temporal variability of extreme wave climate along the Central-South American continent is analyzed. The study evaluates changes in the intensity of extreme significant wave height (SWH) throughout the year over the 1980–2008 period, using a calibrated long-term wave reanalysis database forced with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. A non-stationary extreme value model, based on monthly maxima with a new approach for long-term trends, has been applied. Results show a common positive trend in the Pacific basin throughout all seasons and a significant decreasing trend pattern in the area of Surinam and north of Brazil, on the Atlantic border (up to ?1.5 cm/year in March–April–May). A higher increase of the extreme wave heights is found in the austral summer (December–January–February) at Tierra de Fuego and the Falkland Islands, reaching 6.5 cm/year (which means 1.82 m for the 28 years studied). Furthermore, the complete reanalysis period (1948–2008) is analyzed in order to compare results with the assimilation data period (1980–2008), resulting in some discrepancies, especially in the Atlantic basin.  相似文献   
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Within larger ice-free regions of the western Arctic Seas, subject to ongoing trophic cascades induced by past overfishing, as well as to possible future eutrophication of the drainage basins of the Yukon and Mackenzie Rivers, prior very toxic harmful algal blooms (HABs) – first associated with ∼100 human deaths near Sitka, Alaska in 1799 – may soon expand. Blooms of calcareous coccolithophores in the Bering Sea during 1997–1998 were non-toxic harbingers of the subsequent increments of other non-siliceous phytoplankton. But, now saxitoxic dinoflagellates, e.g. Alexandrium tamarense, were instead found by us within the adjacent downstream Chukchi Sea during SBI cruises of 2002 and 2003. A previous complex, coupled biophysical model had been validated earlier by ship-board observations from the Chukchi/Beaufort Seas during the summer of 2002. With inclusion of phosphorus as another chemical state variable to modulate additional competition by recently observed nitrogen-fixers, we now explore here the possible consequences of altered composition of dominant phytoplankton functional groups [diatoms, microflagellates, prymnesiophyte Phaeocystis colonies, coccolithophores, diazotrophs, and dinoflagellates] in relation to increases of the toxic A. tamarense, responding to relaxation of grazing pressure by herbivores north of Bering Strait as part of a continuing trophic cascade. Model formulation was guided by validation observations obtained during 2002–2004 from: cruises of the SBI, CHINARE, and CASES programs; moored arrays in Bering Strait; other RUSALCA cruises around Wrangel Island; and SBI helicopter surveys of the shelf-break regions of the Arctic basin. Our year-long model scenarios during 2002–2003 indicate that post bloom silica-limitation of diatoms, after smaller simulated spring grazing losses, led to subsequent competitive advantages in summer for the coccolithophores, dinoflagellates, and diazotrophs. Immediate top-down control is exerted by imposed grazing pressures of the model’s herbivores and bottom-up control is also effected by light-, nitrate-, ammonium-, silicate-, and phosphate-modulated competition among the six functional groups of the simulated phytoplankton community. Similar to the history of the southern North Sea adjacent to the Rhine River, possible farming of northwestern Alaska and Canada, in conjunction with other human activities of ice retreat and overfishing, may lead to future exacerbations of poisonous phytoplankton. These potential killers include both toxic dinoflagellate and diazotroph HABs, deadly to terrestrial and marine mammals, as well as those of prymnesiophytes, some of which have already foamed beaches, while others have killed fishes of European waters.  相似文献   
160.
The report presents an analysis of a unique data set demonstrating the influence of geocryological processes on the 75-km Chara-China Railway track (northern Transbaikal region). The originality of these investigations lies in the study of the influence of natural processes on the road in the absence of any repair works or protective and compensating measures for a long period of time (1998~2014). These conditions allowed assessment of the actual damage to the railroad.  相似文献   
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