Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Jose A. Marengo  Tercio Ambrizzi  Rosmeri P. da Rocha  Lincoln M. Alves  Santiago V. Cuadra  Maria C. Valverde  Roger R. Torres  Daniel C. Santos  Simone E. T. Ferraz 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(6):1073-1097

Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961–1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071–2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5°N–15°S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6–8°C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4°C and in winter between 3 and 5°C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and southeastern Brazil.  相似文献   

A global perspective on African climate   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

Alessandra Giannini  Michela Biasutti  Isaac M. Held  Adam H. Sobel 《Climatic change》2008,90(4):359-383

We describe the global climate system context in which to interpret African environmental change to support planning and implementation of policymaking action at national, regional and continental scales, and to inform the debate between proponents of mitigation v. adaptation strategies in the face of climate change. We review recent advances and current challenges in African climate research and exploit our physical understanding of variability and trends to shape our outlook on future climate change. We classify the various mechanisms that have been proposed as relevant for understanding variations in African rainfall, emphasizing a “tropospheric stabilization” mechanism that is of importance on interannual time scales as well as for the future response to warming oceans. Two patterns stand out in our analysis of twentieth century rainfall variability: a drying of the monsoon regions, related to warming of the tropical oceans, and variability related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The latest generation of climate models partly captures this recent continent-wide drying trend, attributing it to the combination of anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and greenhouse gases, the relative contribution of which is difficult to quantify with the existing model archive. The same climate models fail to reach a robust agreement regarding the twenty-first century outlook for African rainfall, in a future with increasing greenhouse gases and decreasing aerosol loadings. Such uncertainty underscores current limitations in our understanding of the global climate system that it is necessary to overcome if science is to support Africa in meeting its development goals.  相似文献   

Monte Carlo Markov Chain parameter estimation in semi-analytic models of galaxy formation     

Bruno M. B. Henriques  Peter A. Thomas  Seb Oliver  Isaac Roseboom 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,396(1):535-547

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Isolation,biodegradation ability and molecular detection of hydrocarbon degrading bacteria in petroleum samples from a Brazilian offshore basin     

Suzan Pantaroto de Vasconcellos  Elaine Crespim  Georgiana Feitosa da Cruz  Diego Barbosa Senatore  Karen Christina Marques Simioni  Eugênio Vaz dos Santos Neto  Anita Jocelyne Marsaioli  Valéria Maia de Oliveira 《Organic Geochemistry》2009,40(5):574-588

The detection of microorganisms with potential for biodeterioration and biodegradation in petroleum fields is of great relevance, since these organisms may be related to a decrease in petroleum quality in the reservoirs or damage in the production facilities. In this sense, petroleum formation water and oil samples were collected from the Campos Basin, Brazil, with the aim of isolating microorganisms and evaluating their ability to degrade distinct classes of hydrocarbon biomarkers (9,10-dihydrophenanthrene, phytane, nonadecanoic acid and 5α-cholestane). Twenty eight bacterial isolates were recovered and identified by sequencing their 16S rRNA genes. Biodegradation assays revealed that bacterial metabolism of hydrocarbons occurred through reactions based on oxidation, carbon–carbon bond cleavage and generation of new bonds or by the physical incorporation of hydrocarbons into microbial cell walls. Based on the biodegradation results, selective PCR-based systems were developed for direct detection in petroleum samples of bacterial groups of interest, namely Bacillus spp., Micrococcus spp., Achromobacter xylosoxidans, Dietzia spp. and Bacillus pumilus. Primer sets targeting 16S rRNA genes were designed and their specificity was confirmed in silico (i.e. computational analysis) and in PCR reactions using DNA from reference strains as positive and negative controls. Total DNA from oil was purified and the amplification tests revealed the presence of the target bacteria in the samples, unraveling a significant potential for petroleum deterioration in the reservoirs sampled, once proper conditions are present for hydrocarbon degradation. The application of molecular methods for rapid detection of specific microorganisms in environmental samples would be valuable as a supporting tool for the evaluation of oil quality in production reservoirs.  相似文献   

A new analysis of the GJ581 extrasolar planetary system     

M. Tadeu dos Santos  G. G. Silva  S. Ferraz-Mello  T. A. Michtchenko 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2012,113(1):49-62

We have done a new analysis of the available observations of the GJ581 exoplanetary system. Today this system is controversial due to choices that can be done in the orbital determination. The main ones are the occurrence of aliases and the additional bodies??the planets f and g??announced in Vogt et?al. (Astrophys J 723:954?C965, 2010). Any dynamical study of exoplanets requires the good knowledge of the orbital elements and the investigations involving the planet g are particularly interesting, since this body would lie in the habitable zone (HZ) of the star GJ581. This region, for this system, is very attractive of the dynamical point of view due to several resonances of two and three bodies present there. In this work, we investigate the conditions under which the planet g may exist. We stress the fact that the planet g is intimately related with the orbital elements of the planet d; more precisely, we conclude that it is not possible to disconnect its existence from the determination of the eccentricity of the planet d. Concerning the planet f, we have found one solution with period ??450?days, but we are judicious about any affirmation concerning this body because its signal is in the threshold of detection and the high period is in a spectral region where the occurrence of aliases is very common. Besides, we outline some dynamical features of the HZ with the dynamical map and point out the role played by some resonances laying there.  相似文献   

Varre-Sai: The Recent Brazilian Fall     

M. E. Zucolotto  L. L. Antonello  M. E. Varela  R. B. Scorzelli  P. Munayco  E. dos Santos  Isabel P. Ludka 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2012,109(1-4):43-53

Varre-Sai, the most recent Brazilian meteorite fall, on June 19th, 2010 at Varre-Sai, in Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil (20°51??41??S; 41°44??.80??W). At least eight masses (total ~3.5?kg) were recovered. Most are totally covered by fusion crust. The exposed interior is of light-grey colour with a few dark shock veins. Five thin polished and etched sections were prepared from a slice weighing 35?g on deposit at the National Museum/UFRJ. It consists mostly of chondrules ranging in size from 0.35 to ~2.2?mm, and chondrule fragments enclosed in a crystalline matrix. The matrix consists of tiny isolated subhedral and anhedral crystals and opaque minerals that are intergrown with broken chondrules. The chondritic texture is poorly defined with chondrule textures that vary from non-porphyritic to porphyritic ones. The essential minerals are olivine (Fa_25±0.2) and low-Ca pyroxene (Fa_21.66±0.2Wo_1.4). Accessory minerals are plagioclase, apatite, Fe?CNi metal phases, troilite, chromite and magnetite. M?ssbauer spectroscopy analysis confirms that the mineral phases are olivine, pyroxene, troilite and kamacite/taenite. Chemical data indicate that Varre-Sai is a member of the low iron L chondrite group. The observed texture and mineral phases led us to classify Varre-Sai as an equilibrated petrologic type 5. The shock features of the minerals (undulatory extinction, planar structure and numerous cracks), as well as plagioclase partial or totally transformed to maskelynite, suggest a shock stage S4. Also, some post-impact metamorphic processes could be inferred from the meta-sulfide conjoint grains that show complex mixtures of kamacite?Ctaenite?Ctetrataenite and troilite. The occurrence of veins crosscutting the studied sections indicates that Varre-Sai was affected by a late fracturing event. Sealing of these fractures must have been a fast process, as shown by troilite globule textures pointing towards rapid solidification. The meteorite name was approved by the Nomenclature Committee of the Meteoritical Society (Meteoritic Bulletin, no 99).  相似文献   

Discovery of an open cluster with a possible physical association with a planetary nebula     

C. Bonatto  E. Bica  J. F. C. Santos Jr 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,386(1):324-336

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Erratum to: Fracture-Induced Anisotropic Attenuation     

José M. Carcione  Juan E. Santos  Stefano Picotti 《Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering》2014,47(2):835-835

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Correction to: Spatial distribution and estimation of rainfall trends and erosivity in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment,Paraíba,Brazil     

da Silva  Richarde Marques  Santos  Celso Augusto Guimarães  Silva  Jorge Flávio Casé Braga da Costa  Silva  Alexandro Medeiros  Brasil Neto  Reginaldo Moura 《Natural Hazards》2020,104(2):1953-1954

Natural Hazards - The article “Spatial distribution and estimation of rainfall trends and erosivity in the Epitácio Pessoa reservoir catchment, Paraíba, Brazil”, written by da...  相似文献   

Climatic signals in lacustrine deposits of the Upper Yacoraite Formation,Western Argentina: Evidence from clay minerals,analcime, dolomite and fibrous calcite     

João Paulo B. Gomes  Rodrigo B. Bunevich  Sandra N. Tonietto  Daisy B. Alves  Julice F. Santos  Fiona F. Whitaker 《Sedimentology》2020,67(5):2282-2309

Authigenic clays are an important control on reservoir quality in lacustrine carbonates but remain challenging to predict. Lacustrine depositional systems respond to climatic variations in rainfall, surface runoff and groundwater input, and evaporation, and result in rapid and frequent changes in lake volume; this is expressed through changing water depth and shoreline position. In the upper portion of the Early Palaeocene Yacoraite Formation of the Salta Basin in Argentina, extensive lacustrine deposits were deposited during the sag phase of rifting. Prior high-resolution stratigraphic studies have suggested that climatic factors control microbial carbonate sequences within a ‘balanced fill’ lake, with variation in the lake level having a major influence on facies association changes. This study characterizes the evolution of facies and mineralogy within the Yacoraite Formation, focusing on the distribution of clay minerals, making a link between the high, medium and low-frequency sequence stratigraphic cycles. The low-frequency transgressive hemicycle of the upper portion of the Yacoraite Formation is comprised of abundant siliciclastic facies, suggesting a wetter period. Microbialites occurring in this interval are coarse-grained and agglutinated. Detrital clay minerals such as illite and chlorite and associated siliciclastic sediments were input to the lake during high-frequency transgressive periods. During high-frequency regressive hemicycles, sedimentation was dominated by carbonate facies with Ca-rich dolomite and the authigenic clays are comprised of chlorite/smectite mixed-layers. By contrast, the low frequency regressive hemicycle records fine-grained agglutinated microbialite with horizons of fibrous calcite, more stoichiometric dolomite, barite and authigenic magnesian smectite. This indicates elevated ion concentrations in the lake under intense evaporation during an arid period. Understanding the conditions that are favourable for formation and preservation of authigenic clays within the lacustrine environment can improve understanding of reservoir quality in comparable economically important deposits.  相似文献