A seasonal study of the atmospheric dynamics over the Iberian Peninsula based on circulation types     

Juan Andrés García-Valero  Juan Pedro Montavez  Sonia Jerez  Juan José Gómez-Navarro  Raquel Lorente-Plazas  Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,110(1-2):291-310

A seasonal analysis of the atmospheric circulation over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) based on circulation types (CTs) obtained from sea level pressure and 500-hPa geopotential height is presented. The study covers the period of 1958–2008, when a high variability and important changes in winter and spring precipitation and temperature have been reported. Frequency, persistence, and the most probable transitions of the circulation types are analyzed. Among the clustering methods available in the literature, two of the most reliable classification methods have been tested, K-means and simulated annealing and diversified randomization. A comparison of both methods over the IP is presented for winter (DJF). The quality of the circulation types obtained through both methods as well as the better stability achieved by K-means suggest this method as more appropriated for our target area. Twelve CTs were obtained for each season and were analyzed. The patterns obtained were regrouped in five general situations: anticyclonic, cyclonic, zonal, summertime, and hybrid-mixed. The analysis of frequencies of these situations offers a similar characterization of the atmospheric circulation that others previously obtained by subjective methods. The analysis of the trends in frequency and persistence for each CT shows few significant trends, mainly in winter and spring with a general decrease of the cyclonic patterns and an increase of the anticyclonic situations. This can be related to the negative precipitation trends reported by other authors. Regarding the persistence, an interesting result is that there is a high interannual variability of the persistence in autumn and spring, when patterns can persist longer than in other seasons. An analysis of the most probable transitions between the CTs has been performed, revealing the existence of cyclic sequences in all seasons. These sequences are related to the high frequency of certain patterns such as the anticyclonic situations in winter. Finally, a clear seasonal dependence of the transitions between cyclonic situations associated with extratropical disturbances was found. This dependence suggests that the transitions of low-pressure systems towards the south of the IP are more likely in spring and autumn than in winter.  相似文献   

North Atlantic atmospheric circulation and surface wind in the Northeast of the Iberian Peninsula: uncertainty and long term downscaled variability   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

E. García-Bustamante  J. F. González-Rouco  J. Navarro  E. Xoplaki  P. A. Jiménez  J. P. Montávez 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(1-2):141-160

The variability and predictability of the surface wind field at the regional scale is explored over a complex terrain region in the northeastern Iberian Peninsula by means of a downscaling technique based on Canonical Correlation Analysis. More than a decade of observations (1992–2005) allows for calibrating and validating a statistical method that elicits the main associations between the large scale atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean areas and the regional wind field. In an initial step the downscaling model is designed by selecting parameter values from practise. To a large extent, the variability of the wind at monthly timescales is found to be governed by the large scale circulation modulated by the particular orographic features of the area. The sensitivity of the downscaling methodology to the selection of the model parameter values is explored, in a second step, by performing a systematic sampling of the parameters space, avoiding a heuristic selection. This provides a metric for the uncertainty associated with the various possible model configurations. The uncertainties associated with the model configuration are considerably dependent on the spatial variability of the wind. While the sampling of the parameters space in the model set up moderately impact estimations during the calibration period, the regional wind variability is very sensitive to the parameters selection at longer timescales. This fact illustrates that downscaling exercises based on a single configuration of parameters should be interpreted with extreme caution. The downscaling model is used to extend the estimations several centuries to the past using long datasets of sea level pressure, thereby illustrating the large temporal variability of the regional wind field from interannual to multicentennial timescales. The analysis does not evidence long term trends throughout the twentieth century, however anomalous episodes of high/low wind speeds are identified.  相似文献   

Strategies to mitigate aliasing of loading signals while estimating GPS frame parameters   总被引：7，自引：5，他引：2  

Xavier?CollilieuxEmail author  Tonie?van?Dam  Jim?Ray  David?Coulot  Laurent?Métivier  Zuheir?Altamimi 《Journal of Geodesy》2012,86(1):1-14

Although GNSS techniques are theoretically sensitive to the Earth center of mass, it is often preferable to remove intrinsic origin and scale information from the estimated station positions since they are known to be affected by systematic errors. This is usually done by estimating the parameters of a linearized similarity transformation which relates the quasi-instantaneous frames to a long-term frame such as the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF). It is well known that non-linear station motions can partially alias into these parameters. We discuss in this paper some procedures that may allow reducing these aliasing effects in the case of the GPS techniques. The options include the use of well-distributed sub-networks for the frame transformation estimation, the use of site loading corrections, a modification of the stochastic model by downweighting heights, or the joint estimation of the low degrees of the deformation field. We confirm that the standard approach consisting of estimating the transformation over the whole network is particularly harmful for the loading signals if the network is not well distributed. Downweighting the height component, using a uniform sub-network, or estimating the deformation field perform similarly in drastically reducing the amplitude of the aliasing effect. The application of these methods to reprocessed GPS terrestrial frames permits an assessment of the level of agreement between GPS and our loading model, which is found to be about 1.5 mm WRMS in height and 0.8 mm WRMS in the horizontal at the annual frequency. Aliased loading signals are not the main source of discrepancies between loading displacement models and GPS position time series.  相似文献   

Relative roles of climate sensitivity and forcing in defining the ocean circulation response to climate change     

Jeffery R. Scott  Andrei P. Sokolov  Peter H. Stone  Mort D. Webster 《Climate Dynamics》2008,30(5):441-454

The response of the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to increased greenhouse gas forcing is examined using a coupled model of intermediate complexity, including a dynamic 3-D ocean subcomponent. Parameters are the increase in CO₂ forcing (with stabilization after a specified time interval) and the model’s climate sensitivity. In this model, the cessation of deep sinking in the north “Atlantic” (hereinafter, a “collapse”), as indicated by changes in the MOC, behaves like a simple bifurcation. The final surface air temperature (SAT) change, which is closely predicted by the product of the radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, determines whether a collapse occurs. The initial transient response in SAT is largely a function of the forcing increase, with higher sensitivity runs exhibiting delayed behavior; accordingly, high CO₂-low sensitivity scenarios can be assessed as a recovering or collapsing circulation shortly after stabilization, whereas low CO₂-high sensitivity scenarios require several hundred additional years to make such a determination. We also systemically examine how the rate of forcing, for a given CO₂ stabilization, affects the ocean response. In contrast with previous studies based on results using simpler ocean models, we find that except for a narrow range of marginally stable to marginally unstable scenarios, the forcing rate has little impact on whether the run collapses or recovers. In this narrow range, however, forcing increases on a time scale of slow ocean advective processes results in weaker declines in overturning strength and can permit a run to recover that would otherwise collapse.  相似文献   

A lunar cryptomare dome near Mee H and Drebbel F     

Raffaello Lena  Jim Phillips  Geologic Lunar Research Group 《Planetary and Space Science》2009,57(3):267-275

In this study, we examine the lunar mare dome Mee 1 situated near the craters Mee H and Drebbel F in a region showing evidence of ancient (pre-Orientale) mare volcanism and cryptomare deposits. Regional stratigraphic relations indicate that Mee 1 was formed prior to the Orientale impact at the beginning of the Imbrian period. Based on a combined photoclinometry and shape from shading technique applied to telescopic CCD images of the dome acquired under oblique illumination, we determined a diameter of Mee 1 of 25 km, a height of 250 m, a flank slope of 1.15^°, and a volume of . Based on rheologic modelling of the dome and a viscoelastic model of the feeder dike, we obtained a magma viscosity of , an effusion rate of , a duration of the effusion process of 1.6 years, a magma rise speed of , a width of the feeder dike of 32 m, and a horizontal dike length of 144 km. A comparison of Mee 1 with domes with similar morphometric properties, which are located near Milichius and inside the crater Petavius, reveals strong similarities with respect to the viscosity of the dome-forming magma and the feeder dike geometry, while the effusion rate and magma rise speed of Mee 1 are somewhat higher. The pronounced morphometric differences between Mee 1 and a smaller dome situated close to the crater Doppelmayer and characterised by a similar magma viscosity suggest that the growth of that dome was limited by exhaustion of the magma reservoir, while Mee 1 and the other larger domes display morphometric properties presumably coming closer to the cooling limit. The comparison of the ancient dome Mee 1 with the younger (Eratosthenian) edifices near Milichius and Doppelmayer suggests that the conditions in the upper mantle and the crust favoured high eruption volumes, effusion rates, and magma rise speeds, implying the occurrence of large magma reservoirs preventing the limitation of dome growth by magma exhaustion. On the other hand, we observe similar general morphometric, rheologic, and feeder dike characteristics and, thus, conclude that the formation conditions of lunar mare domes did not change fundamentally during the Imbrian period.  相似文献   

A simple unsplit Godunov method for multidimensional MHD     

James M. Stone  Thomas Gardiner 《New Astronomy》2009,14(2):139-148

We describe a numerical algorithm based on Godunov methods for integrating the equations of compressible magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) in multidimensions. It combines a simple, dimensionally-unsplit integration method with the constrained transport (CT) discretization of the induction equation to enforce the divergence-free constraint. We present the results of a series of fully three-dimensional tests which indicate the method is second-order accurate for smooth solutions in all MHD wave families, and captures shocks, contact and rotational discontinuities well. However, it is also more diffusive than other more complex unsplit integrators combined with CT. Thus, the primary advantage of the method is its simplicity. It does not require a characteristic tracing step to construct interface values for the Riemann solver, it is straightforward to extend with additional physics, and it is suitable for use with nested and adaptive meshes. The method is implemented as one of two dimensionally unsplit MHD integrators in the Athena code, which is freely available for download from the web.  相似文献   

Glaciation and deglaciation of the SW Lake District,England: implications of cosmogenic 36Cl exposure dating     

Colin K. Ballantyne  John O. Stone  L. Keith Fifield 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》2009,120(2-3):139-144

Exposure dating using cosmogenic ³⁶Cl demonstrates that the summit plateau of Scafell Pike (978 m) in the SW Lake District escaped erosion by glacier ice during the last glacial maximum (LGM; c. 26–21 kyr) and probably throughout the Devensian Glacial Stage (MIS 5d-2). Exposure ages obtained for ice-moulded bedrock on an adjacent col at 750–765 m confirm over-riding and erosion of bedrock by warm-based glacier ice during the LGM. The contrast between the two sites is interpreted in terms of preservation of tors, frost-shattered outcrops and blockfields on terrain above 840–870 m under cold-based ice. An exposure age of 17.3 ± 1.1 kyr for the col at 750–765 m suggests that substantial downwastage of the last ice sheet had occurred by c. 17 kyr, consistent with deglacial exposure ages obtained for other high-level sites in the British Isles. An exposure age of 12.5 ± 0.8 kyr obtained for a glacially transported rockfall boulder within the limits of later corrie glaciation confirms that the final episode of local glaciation in the Lake District occurred during the Loch Lomond Stade (c. 12.9–11.7 kyr). This research also demonstrated the difficulties of obtaining reliable exposure ages from rhyolite and andesite bedrock that has proved resistant to glacial abrasion.  相似文献   

Large Proton Anisotropies in the 18 August 2010 Solar Particle Event     

R. A. Leske  C. M. S. Cohen  R. A. Mewaldt  E. R. Christian  A. C. Cummings  A. W. Labrador  E. C. Stone  M. E. Wiedenbeck  T. T. von Rosenvinge 《Solar physics》2012,281(1):301-318

The solar particle event observed at STEREO Ahead on 18?August 2010 displayed a rich variety of behavior in the particle anisotropies. Sectored rates measured by the Low Energy Telescope (LET) on STEREO showed very large bidirectional anisotropies in 4??C?6?MeV protons for the first ???17?hours of the event while inside a magnetic cloud, with intensities along the field direction several hundred to nearly 1000 times greater than those perpendicular to the field. At the trailing end of the cloud, the protons became isotropic and their spectrum hardened slightly, while the He/H abundance ratio plunged by a factor of approximately four for about four hours. Associated with the arrival of a shock on 20?August was a series of brief (<?10?minute duration) intensity increases (commonly called ??shock spikes??) with relatively narrow angular distributions (???45^° FWHM), followed by an abrupt decrease in particle intensities at the shock itself and a reversal of the proton flow to a direction toward the Sun and away from the receding shock. We discuss the STEREO/LET observations of this interesting event in the context of other observations reported in the literature.  相似文献   

Assessing the hydrological and geomorphic behaviour of a landscape evolution model within a limits-of-acceptability uncertainty analysis framework     

Jefferson S. Wong  Jim E. Freer  Paul D. Bates  Jeff Warburton  Tom J. Coulthard 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(10):1981-2003

Landscape evolution models (LEMs) have the capability to characterize key aspects of geomorphological and hydrological processes. However, their usefulness is hindered by model equifinality and paucity of available calibration data. Estimating uncertainty in the parameter space and resultant model predictions is rarely achieved as this is computationally intensive and the uncertainties inherent in the observed data are large. Therefore, a limits-of-acceptability (LoA) uncertainty analysis approach was adopted in this study to assess the value of uncertain hydrological and geomorphic data. These were used to constrain simulations of catchment responses and to explore the parameter uncertainty in model predictions. We applied this approach to the River Derwent and Cocker catchments in the UK using a LEM CAESAR-Lisflood. Results show that the model was generally able to produce behavioural simulations within the uncertainty limits of the streamflow. Reliability metrics ranged from 24.4% to 41.2% and captured the high-magnitude low-frequency sediment events. Since different sets of behavioural simulations were found across different parts of the catchment, evaluating LEM performance, in quantifying and assessing both at-a-point behaviour and spatial catchment response, remains a challenge. Our results show that evaluating LEMs within uncertainty analyses framework while taking into account the varying quality of different observations constrains behavioural simulations and parameter distributions and is a step towards a full-ensemble uncertainty evaluation of such models. We believe that this approach will have benefits for reflecting uncertainties in flooding events where channel morphological changes are occurring and various diverse (and yet often sparse) data have been collected over such events.  相似文献   

Long-term observations of the group structure of surface waves in ice     

Gemmrich  Johannes  Mudge  Todd  Thomson  Jim 《Ocean Dynamics》2021,71(3):343-356

Ocean Dynamics - Several years of surface wave observations in the Chukchi Sea reveal wave groups are a common feature in open water and ice-covered conditions. The strength of the groupiness, here...  相似文献