A georeferenced agent-based model to analyze the climate change impacts on ski tourism at a regional scale     

Marc Pons  Peter A Johnson  Martí Rosas  Eric Jover 《International journal of geographical information science》2014,28(12):2474-2494

One main argument for modeling socio-ecological systems is to advance the understanding of dynamic correlations between various human and environmental factors, including impacts and responses to environmental change. We explore the shift in skier distribution among ski resorts taking into account the behavioral adaptation of individuals due to the impact of climate change on snow conditions. This analysis is performed at a regional scale by means of a coupled gravity and georeferenced agent-based model. Four different scenarios are considered. Two scenarios assume an increase of winter mean temperature of +2°C and +4°C, respectively, taking into account only natural snow conditions. Two additional scenarios add the effect of snowmaking to enhance the natural snow depth and extend the skiing season in the +2°C and +4°C base scenarios. Results show differing vulnerability levels, allowing the classification of ski resorts into three distinct groups: (1) highly vulnerable ski resorts with a strong reduction in visitors attendance for all climate change scenarios, characterized by unfavorable geographical and attractiveness conditions, making it difficult to ensure snow availability in the future; (2) low vulnerability ski resorts, with moderate reduction in season length during a high climate change scenario but no reduction (or even an increase) in a low one, characterized by ski resorts with a medium capacity and attractiveness to ensure enough snow conditions and capture skiers from other ski resorts; and (3) resilient ski resorts, with good conditions to ensure future snow-reliable seasons and outstanding attractiveness, allowing them to offer longer ski seasons than their competitors and potentially attracting skiers from other closed or marginal resorts. Ski resorts included in this last group increase their skier attendance in all climate change scenarios. Although similar studies in the literature foretell a significant reduction of the ski market in the near future, another probable effect outlined in this study is a redefinition of this market due to a redistribution of skiers, from vulnerable ski resorts to more resilient ones.  相似文献   

A Middle Miocene carbonate embankment on an active volcanic slope: Ilhéu de Baixo,Madeira Archipelago,Eastern Atlantic     

B. Gudveig Baarli  Mrio Cacho  Carlos M. da Silva  Markes E. Johnson  Eduardo J. Mayoral  Ana Santos 《Geological Journal》2014,49(1):90-106

Carbonate factories on insular oceanic islands in active volcanic settings are poorly explored. This case study illuminates marginal limestone deposits on a steep volcanic flank and their recurring interruption by deposits linked to volcaniclastic processes. Historically known as Ilhéu da Cal (Lime Island), Ilhéu de Baixo was separated from Porto Santo, in the Madeira Archipelago, during the course of the Quaternary. Here, extensive mines were tunnelled in the Miocene carbonate strata for the production of slaked lime. Approximately 10 000 m³ of calcarenite (−1 to 1ø) was removed by hand labour from the Blandy Brothers mine at the south end of the islet. Investigations of two stratigraphic sections at opposite ends of the mine reveal that the quarried material represents an incipient carbonate ramp developed from east to west and embanked against the flank of a volcanic island. A petrographic analysis of limestones from the mine shows that coralline red algae from crushed rhodoliths account for 51% of all identifiable bioclasts. This material was transported shoreward and deposited on the ramp between normal wave base and storm wave base at moderate depths. The mine's roof rocks are formed by Surtseyan deposits from a subsequent volcanic eruption. Volcaniclastic density flows also are a prevalent factor interrupting renewed carbonate deposition. These flows arrived downslope from the north and gradually steepened the debris apron westwards. Slope instability is further shown by a coral rudstone density flow that followed from growth of a coral reef dominated by Pocillopora madreporacea (Lamarck), partial reef collapse, and transport from a more easterly direction into a fore‐reef setting. The uppermost facies represents a soft bottom at moderate depths in a quiet, but shore‐proximal setting. Application of this study to a broader understanding of the relationship between carbonate and volcaniclastic deposition on oceanic islands emphasizes the susceptibility of carbonates to dilution and complete removal by density flows of various kinds, in contrast to the potential for preservation beneath less‐disruptive Surtseyan deposits. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Controls on surface water chemistry in two lake‐watersheds in the Adirondack region of New York: differences in nitrogen solute sources and sinks     

Mari Ito  Myron J. Mitchell  Charles T. Driscoll  Robert M. Newton  Chris E. Johnson  Karen M. Roy 《水文研究》2007,21(10):1249-1264

The southwestern Adirondack region of New York receives among the highest rates of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition in the USA. Atmospheric N deposition to sensitive ecosystems, like the Adirondacks, may increase the acidification of soils through losses of exchangeable nutrient cations, and the acidification of surface waters associated with enhanced mobility of nitrate (NO₃^?). However, watershed attributes, including surficial terrestrial characteristics, in‐lake processing, and geological settings, have been found to complicate the relationships between atmospheric N deposition and N drainage losses. We studied two lake‐watersheds in the southwestern Adirondacks, Grass Pond and Constable Pond, which are located in close proximity (～26 km) and receive similarly high N deposition, but have contrasting watershed attributes (e.g. wetland area, geological settings). Since the difference in the influence of N deposition was minimal, we were able to examine both within‐ and between‐watershed influences of land cover, the contribution of glacial till groundwater inputs, and in‐lake processes on surface water chemistry with particular emphasis on N solutes and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Monthly samples at seven inlets and one outlet of each lake were collected from May to October in 1999 and 2000. The concentrations of NO₃^? were high at the Grass Pond inlets, especially at two inlets, and NO₃^? was the major N solute at the Grass Pond inlets. The concentrations of likely weathering products (i.e. dissolved Si, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Na⁺) as well as acid neutralizing capacity and pH values, were also particularly high at those two Grass Pond inlets, suggesting a large contribution of groundwater inputs. Dissolved organic N (DON) was the major N solute at the Constable Pond inlets. The higher concentrations of DON and DOC at the Constable Pond inlets were attributed to a large wetland area in the watershed. The DOC/DON ratios were also higher at the Constable Pond inlets, possibly due to a larger proportion of coniferous forest area. Although DON and DOC were strongly related, the stronger relationship of the proportion of wetland area with DOC suggests that additional factors regulate DON. The aggregated representation of watershed physical features (i.e. elevation, watershed area, mean topographic index, hypsometric‐analysis index) was not clearly related to the lake N and DOC chemistry. Despite distinctive differences in inlet N chemistry, NO₃^? and DON concentrations at the outlets of the two lakes were similar. The lower DOC/DON ratios at the lake outlets and at the inlets having upstream ponds suggest the importance of N processing and organic N sources within the lakes. Although an inverse relationship between NO₃^? and DOC/DON has been suggested to be indicative of a N deposition gradient, the existence of this relationship for sites that receive similar atmospheric N deposition suggest that the relationship between NO₃^? and the DOC/DON ratio is derived from environmental and physical factors. Our results suggest that, despite similar wet N deposition at the two watershed sites, N solutes entering lakes were strongly affected by hydrology associated with groundwater contribution and the presence of wetlands, whereas N solutes leaving lakes were strongly influenced by in‐lake processing. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

An overview of the ACE‐2 CLOUDYCOLUMN closure experiment     

J. L. Brenguier  P. Y. Chuang  Y. Fouquart  D. W. Johnson  F. Parol  Hanna Pawlowska  Jacques Pelon  Lothar Schüller  F. Schröder  J. Snider 《Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology》2000,52(2):815-827

CLOUDYCOLUMN is one of the 6 ACE‐2 projects which took place in June‐July 1997, between Portugal and the Canary Islands. It was specifically dedicated to the study of changes of cloud radiative properties resulting from changes in the properties of those aerosols which act as cloud condensation nuclei. This process is also refered to as the aerosol indirect effect on climate. CLOUDYCOLUMN is focused on the contribution of stratocumulus clouds to that process. In addition to the basic aerosol measurements performed at the ground stations of the ACE‐2 project, 5 instrumented aircraft carried out in situ characterization of aerosol physical, chemical and nucleation properties and cloud dynamical and microphysical properties. Cloud radiative properties were also measured remotely with radiometers and a lidar. 11 case studies have been documented, from pure marine to significantly polluted air masses. The simultaneity of the measurements with the multi‐aircraft approach provides a unique data set for closure experiments on the aerosol indirect effect. In particular CLOUDYCOLUMN provided the 1st experimental evidence of the existence of the indirect effect in boundary layer clouds forming in polluted continental outbreacks. This paper describes the objectives of the project, the instrumental setup and the sampling strategy. Preliminary results published in additional papers are briefly summarized.  相似文献   

Pliocene and late Pleistocene (MIS 5e) decapod crustaceans from Santa Maria Island (Azores Archipelago: Central Atlantic): systematics,palaeoecology and palaeobiogeography     

Matúš Hyžný  Carlos S. Melo  Ricardo S. Ramalho  Ricardo Cordeiro  Patrícia Madeira  Lara Baptista  A. Cristina Rebelo  Cynthia Gómez  Alfred Uchman  Markes E. Johnson  Björn Berning  Sérgio P. Ávila 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(1):91-109

The presence of decapod crustaceans in the Pliocene and Pleistocene (MIS 5e) fossil record of Santa Maria Island (Azores Archipelago) is herein reviewed. Our study raises the number of fossil decapods from this island from one species to 10 taxa (three for the Pliocene and seven for the Last Interglacial). Four of these 10 taxa are reported for the first time in the fossil record, worldwide. A new species of a mud shrimp is also described (Upogebia azorensis n. sp.). Our study suggests that the Plio–Pleistocene decapod assemblages of the Azores did not differ significantly from modern ones, being dominated by species that are today widespread across the Webbnesia ecoregion, the Mediterranean Sea, and the eastern Atlantic shores, including the Azores. As far as can be judged from the limited fossil record, apparently no tropical crab species with a Cabo Verdean/Senegalese provenance reached the Azores during windows of opportunity associated with Glacial Termination 2 or with the initial setting of the Last Interglacial period. This contribution increases the total number of marine taxa reported for the Pliocene and Pleistocene outcrops of Santa Maria Island to 218 and 155, respectively, highlighting the scientific relevance of its palaeontological heritage.  相似文献   

Observations of the evolution of the aerosol, cloud and boundary‐layer characteristics during the 1st ACE‐2 Lagrangian experiment     

Doug W. Johnson  Simon Osborne  Robert Wood  Karsten Suhre  Patricia K. Quinn  Tim Bates  M. O. Andreae  Kevin J. Noone  Paul Glantz  Brian Bandy  J. Rudolph  Colin O'Dowd 《Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology》2000,52(2):348-374

During the 1st Lagrangian experiment of the North Atlantic Regional Aerosol Characterisation Experiment (ACE‐2), a parcel of air was tagged by releasing a smart, constant level balloon into it from the Research Vessel Vodyanitskiy . The Meteorological Research Flight's C‐130 aircraft then followed this parcel over a period of 30 h characterising the marine boundary layer (MBL), the cloud and the physical and chemical aerosol evolution. The air mass had originated over the northern North Atlantic and thus was clean and had low aerosol concentrations. At the beginning of the experiment the MBL was over 1500 m deep and made up of a surface mixed layer (SML) underlying a layer containing cloud beneath a subsidence inversion. Subsidence in the free troposphere caused the depth of the MBL to almost halve during the experiment and, after 26 h, the MBL became well mixed throughout its whole depth. Salt particle mass in the MBL increased as the surface wind speed increased from 8 m s⁻¹ to 16 m s⁻¹ and the accumulation mode (0.1μm to 3.0 μm) aerosol concentrations quadrupled from 50 cm⁻³ to 200 cm⁻³. However, at the same time the total condensation nuclei (>3 nm) decreased from over 1000 cm⁻³ to 750 cm⁻³. The changes in the accumulation mode aerosol concentrations had a significant effect on the observed cloud microphysics. Observational evidence suggests that the important processes in controlling the Aitken mode concentration which, dominated the total CN concentration, included, scavenging of interstitial aerosol by cloud droplets, enhanced coagulation of Aitken mode aerosol and accumulation mode aerosol due to the increased sea salt aerosol surface area, and dilution of the MBL by free tropospheric air.  相似文献   

The response of nematodes to deep-sea CO2 sequestration: A quantile regression approach     

J.W. Fleeger  D.S. Johnson  K.R. Carman  P.B. Weisenhorn  A. Gabriele  D. Thistle  J.P. Barry 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2010,57(5):696-707

One proposed approach to ameliorate the effects of global warming is sequestration of the greenhouse gas CO₂ in the deep sea. To evaluate the environmental impact of this approach, we exposed the sediment-dwelling fauna at the mouth of the Monterey Submarine Canyon (3262 m) and a site on the nearby continental rise (3607 m) to CO₂-rich water. We measured meiobenthic nematode population and community metrics after ～30-day exposures along a distance gradient from the CO₂ source and with sediment depth to infer the patterns of mortality. We also compared the nematode response with that of harpacticoid copepods. Nematode abundance, average sediment depth, tail-group composition, and length: width ratio did not vary with distance from the CO₂ source. However, quantile regression showed that nematode length and diameter increased in close proximity to the CO₂ source in both experiments. Further, the effects of CO₂ exposure and sediment depth (nematodes became more slender at one site, but larger at the other, with increasing depth in the sediment) varied with body size. For example, the response of the longest nematodes differed from those of average length. We propose that nematode body length and diameter increases were induced by lethal exposure to CO₂-rich water and that nematodes experienced a high rate of mortality in both experiments. In contrast, copepods experienced high mortality rates in only one experiment suggesting that CO₂ sequestration effects are taxon specific.  相似文献   

A theory of pressure sensor performance in snow     

Jerome B. Johnson 《水文研究》2004,18(1):53-64

A theory of pressure sensor response in snow is derived and used to examine the sources of measurement errors in snow water equivalent (SWE) pressure sensors. Measurement errors in SWE are caused by differences in the compressibility of the pressure sensor and the adjacent snow layer, which produces a shear stress along the perimeter of the sensor. When the temperature at the base of the snow cover equals 0 °C, differences in the snowmelt rate between the snow–SWE sensor interface and the adjacent snow–soil interface may also produce a shear stress along the sensor's perimeter. This shear stress perturbs the pressure field over the sensor, producing SWE measurement errors. Snow creep acts to reduce shear stresses along the SWE sensor's perimeter at a rate that is inversely proportional to the snow viscosity. For sustained periods of differential snowmelt, a difference in the mass of snow over the sensor compared with the surrounding soil will develop, producing additional permanent errors in SWE measurements. The theory indicates that SWE pressure sensor performance can be improved by designing a sensor with a high Young's modulus (low compressibility), low aspect ratio, large diameter and thermal properties that match those of the surrounding soil. Simulations of SWE pressure sensor errors using the theory are in close agreement with observed errors and may provide a means to correct historical SWE measurements for use in hydrological hindcast or climate studies. Published in 2003 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The Physics and Chemistry of Sputtering by Energetic Plasma Ions     

R.E. Johnson  F. Leblanc 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2001,277(1-2):259-269

Energetic ions from the solar wind, local pick-up ions or magnetospheric plasma ions impact the atmospheres and surfaces of a number of solar system bodies. These energetic incident ions deposit energy in the gas or solid. This can lead to the ejection of atoms and molecules, a process referred to as sputtering. In this paper we first describe the physics and chemistry of atmospheric and surface sputtering. We then apply this to the production of a thin atmosphere on Europa by magnetospheric ion bombardment of Europa's surface and show that Europa loses more Na atoms than it receives from the Jupiter magnetosphere. The loss of atmosphere from Mars in earlier epochs by pick-up ion sputtering of that atmosphere is also calculated. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

The application of automated recognition techniques to side-scansonar imagery     

Johnson  S.G. Deaett  M.A. 《Oceanic Engineering, IEEE Journal of》1994,19(1):138-144

The rapid identification of ocean-bottom toxic-waste deposits has grown in importance due to worldwide industrialization and the expense of proper disposal. Acoustic surveys with a side-scan sonar provide a cost effective means of locating such damaging deposits. Here we describe an automatic image recognizer that can serve to prescreen volumes of data and alert a human operator. This recognizer operates using features and rules drawn from operator experience to establish candidate detections in amplitude-segmented imagery. The algorithm is described, performance examples are given, and applications are discussed  相似文献