A framework for testing dynamic classification of vulnerable scenarios in ensemble water supply projections     

Robinson  Bethany  Herman  Jonathan D. 《Climatic change》2019,152(3-4):431-448

Climatic Change - Recent water resources planning studies have proposed climate adaptation strategies in which infrastructure and policy actions are triggered by observed thresholds or...  相似文献   

Regional modelling of permafrost thicknesses over the past 130 ka: implications for permafrost development in Great Britain          下载免费PDF全文

Jonathan P. Busby  Jonathan R. Lee  Sev Kender  Paul Williamson  Simon Norris 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2016,45(1):46-60

The greatest thicknesses of permafrost in Great Britain most likely occurred during the last glacial–interglacial cycle, as this is when some of the coldest conditions occurred during the last 1 000 000 years. The regional development of permafrost across Great Britain during the last glacial–interglacial cycle was modelled from a ground surface temperature history based on mean annual temperatures and the presence of glacier ice. To quantify the growth and decay of permafrost, modelling was undertaken at six locations across Great Britain that represent upland glaciated, lowland glaciated, upland unglaciated and lowland unglaciated conditions. Maximum predicted permafrost depths derived in this academic study range between several tens of metres to over 100 m depending upon various factors including elevation, glacier ice cover, geothermal heat flux and air temperature. In general, the greatest maximum permafrost thicknesses occur at upland glaciated locations, with minimum thickness at lowland sites. Current direct geological evidence for permafrost is from surface or shallow processes, mainly associated with the active layer. Further research is recommended to identify the imprint of freeze/thaw conditions in permanently frozen porous rocks from beneath the active layer.  相似文献   

Identification of rural land management signals in runoff response     

Neil McIntyre  Miles Marshall 《水文研究》2010,24(24):3521-3534

Rural land management signals in catchment‐scale runoff have proven difficult to identify in general. The Pontbren experimental catchment in upland Wales, UK, provides a new data set with which to address this challenge. This data set includes more than 4 years of data from six tipping bucket rainfall gauges and eight stream flow gauges representing different land management regimes at different scales. Data‐based mechanistic rainfall–runoff models were fitted to this data set using the CAPTAIN toolbox. The spatial and temporal variabilities of model parameters were identified and interpreted where possible. The analysis highlighted a dependency between the modelled residence time and the presence of agriculturally improved grassland, which produced a flashier response than grassland in a more natural condition. Another factor found to strongly affect the spatial variability of runoff response was the presence of lakes, while catchment area had a less pronounced effect, and the influence of trees, steepness and soil type could not be identified. Some time variability of response was observed but this was not consistent across the catchment and could not easily be interpreted. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Oxygen and organic carbon fluxes in sediments of the Bay of Biscay     

Aurélia Mouret  Pierre Anschutz  Bruno Deflandre  Gwénaëlle Chaillou  Christelle Hyacinthe  Jonathan Deborde  Henri Etcheber  Jean-Marie Jouanneau  Antoine Grémare  Pascal Lecroart 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2010,57(4):528-540

The relationship between particulate organic carbon (POC) concentrations measured in modern sediment and fluxes of exported POC to the sediment surface needs to be understood in order to use POC content as a proxy of paleo-environmental conditions. The objective of our study was to compare POC concentrations, POC mineralization rates calculated from O₂ consumption and POC burial rates. Benthic O₂ distributions were determined in 58 fine-grained sediment cores collected at different periods at 14 stations in the southeastern part of the Bay of Biscay with depths ranging from 140 to 2800 m. Depth-dependent volume-specific oxygen consumption rates were used to assess rates of aerobic oxidation of organic matter (OM), assuming that O₂ consumption solely was related to heterotrophic activity at the sediment–water interface. Heterogeneity of benthic O₂ fluxes denoted changes in time and space of fresh organic material sedimentation. The most labile fraction of exported POC engendered a steep decrease in concentration in the upper 5 mm of vertical O₂ profiles. The rupture in the gradient of O₂ microprofile may be related to the bioturbation-induced mixing depth of fast-decaying carbon. Average diffusive O₂ fluxes showed that this fast-decaying OM flux was much higher than buried POC, although diffusive O₂ fluxes underestimated the total sediment oxygen demand, and thus the fast-decaying OM flux to the sediment surface. Sedimentary POC burial was calculated from sediment mass accumulation rate and the organic carbon content measured at the top of the sediment. The proportion of buried POC relative to total exported POC ranged at the most between 50% and 10%, depending on station location. Therefore, for a narrow geographic area like the Bay of Biscay, burial efficiency of POC was variable. A fraction of buried POC consisted of slow-decaying OM that was mineralized within the upper decimetres of sediment through oxic and anoxic processes. This fraction was deduced from the decrease with depth in POC concentration. At sites located below 500 m water depth, where the fast-decaying carbon did not reach the anoxic sediment, the slow-decaying pool may control the O₂ penetration depth. Only refractory organic material was fossilized in sedimentary records at locations where labile OM did not reach the anoxic portion of the sediment.  相似文献   

Trends,drivers and impacts of changes in swidden cultivation in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers: A global assessment     

Nathalie van Vliet  Ole Mertz  Andreas Heinimann  Tobias Langanke  Unai Pascual  Birgit Schmook  Cristina Adams  Dietrich Schmidt-Vogt  Peter Messerli  Stephen Leisz  Jean-Christophe Castella  Lars Jørgensen  Torben Birch-Thomsen  Cornelia Hett  Thilde Bech-Bruun  Amy Ickowitz  Kim Chi Vu  Kono Yasuyuki  Jefferson Fox  Christine Padoch  Alan D. Ziegler 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(2):418-429

This meta-analysis of land-cover transformations of the past 10–15 years in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers world-wide shows that swidden agriculture decreases in landscapes with access to local, national and international markets that encourage cattle production and cash cropping, including biofuels. Conservation policies and practices also accelerate changes in swidden by restricting forest clearing and encouraging commercial agriculture. However, swidden remains important in many frontier areas where farmers have unequal or insecure access to investment and market opportunities, or where multi-functionality of land uses has been preserved as a strategy to adapt to current ecological, economic and political circumstances. In some areas swidden remains important simply because intensification is not a viable choice, for example when population densities and/or food market demands are low. The transformation of swidden landscapes into more intensive land uses has generally increased household incomes, but has also led to negative effects on the social and human capital of local communities to varying degrees. From an environmental perspective, the transition from swidden to other land uses often contributes to permanent deforestation, loss of biodiversity, increased weed pressure, declines in soil fertility, and accelerated soil erosion. Our prognosis is that, despite the global trend towards land use intensification, in many areas swidden will remain part of rural landscapes as the safety component of diversified systems, particularly in response to risks and uncertainties associated with more intensive land use systems.  相似文献   

Observations of mine seismicity in the eastern Wasatch Plateau,Utah, U.S.A.: A possible case of implosional failure     

Ivan G. Wong  James R. Humphrey  Janet A. Adams  Walter J. Silva 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1989,129(3-4):369-405

In the summer of 1984, a three-dimensional, high-resolution microearthquake network was operated in the vicinity of two coal mines beneath Gentry Mountain in the eastern Wasatch Plateau, Utah. During a six-week period, approximately 3,000 seismic events were observed of which the majority were impulsive, higher frequency (>10 Hz), short duration (<2–3 sec) events probably associated with the caving of the roof from a longwall operation. In contrast, 234 of the largest located events appeared to occur predominantlybeneath the mines to a depth of 2 to 3 km consistent with previous studies. The magnitudes of these events ranged from less thanM _c 0 to 1.6. In addition to the unusual depths of these latter events, an anomalous aspect displayed by the events was an apparent dilatational focal mechanism suggesting a non-double-couple, possibly implosional source. Implosional events have been observed in other studies of mine seismicity; however, the generally inadequate instrumental coverage of the focal sphere has cast some doubt on the validity of such mechanisms. Previously suggested source mechanisms for such implosional events have included tensional failure through strata collapse, and a shear-implosional displacement mechanism. Shear failure must be involved in the failure process of the Gentry Mountain implosional events as evidenced by well-defined shear waves in the observed seismograms. Simultaneous monitoring in the East Mountain coal mining area to the south by the University of Utah revealed typical shear failure events mixed with implosional events. The observed double-couple, reverse focal mechanisms at East Mountain were similar to mechanisms determined in previous studies and a composite focal mechanism determined in this study for a sequence outside the mining areas. This suggested that the shear events within the mining areas are being influenced by the regional tectonic stress field. Thus in addition to the seismic events associated with caving of the roof from the longwall operation, there appear to be at least two other types of mining-induced seismic events occurring in the eastern Wasatch Plateau, both submine in origin: (1) events characterized by apparent non-double-couple possibly implosional focal mechanisms and well-defined shear waves; and (2) shear events, which are indistinguishable from tectonic earthquakes and may be considered mining triggered earthquakes. The small mining-induced stress changes that occur beyond a few hundred meters from the mine workings suggest both types of seismic events are occurring on critically stressed, pre-existing zones of weakness. Topography, overburden, method of mining, and mine configuration also appear to be significant factors influencing the occurrence of the implosional submine events.  相似文献   

Estimation of Residual Dense NAPL Mass by Inverse Modeling     

Jonathan B. Butcher  Thomas D. Gauthier 《Ground water》1994,32(1):71-78

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臭氧和平流层动力学的相互作用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jonathan S.Kinnersley  朱乾根  孙照渤  何金海 《南京气象学院学报》1993,(1)

讨论了给定的南极春季臭氧洞(取自1979—1985年臭氧减少的观测结果)对二维平流层—对流层模式中温度和环流的影响。11月份,南极上空约17km处,温度最多可降低6℃。这种温度变化引起的平均经向环流对臭氧洞起填塞作用,不过,这种影响很小,每年仅产生14DU的变化。观测事实表明,近年来10月份,南半球波活动减弱。为此,我们作了南半球波作用全年都减少一半,并考虑了臭氧洞的数值试验。结果表明,臭氧柱在11月份76°S减少了44DU,在赤道却增加了12DU。  相似文献   

World Data Center-A for Paleoclimatology at the NOAA Paleoclimatology Program,Boulder, CO     

Robert S. Webb  Jonathan T. Overpeck  David M. Anderson  Bruce A. Bauer  Mildred K. England  Wendy S. Gross  E. Ann Meyers  Michael M. Worobec 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1993,9(1):69-75

Conclusion The World Data Center-A for Paleoclimatology, located in the NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, is committed to providing the scientific community with easy access to all paleoenvironmental data. Efforts to make archived data readily available include international coordination of data acquisition, management, and distribution, sponsoring workshops and data cooperatives to facilitate the compilation of important data sets, development of a browse and visualization software package (PaleoVu), and dispersal of archived data on magnetic media or over ANONYMOUS FTP/INTERNET. The program publishes a semi-annual newsletter that highlights latest developments and accomplishments in the area of paleoenvironmental data for global change research. Contributions to the newsletter are welcome from researchers describing their efforts to coordinate the free flow of paleoclimate data throughout the international scientific community.For information on the program or to be added to the mailing list contact Mrs Mildred England (phone: 303-497-6227; Fax: 303 497-6513; e-mail: MKE@mail.ngdc.noaa.gov), NOAA National Geophysical Data Center, Paleoclimatology Program/World Data Center-A for Paleoclimatology, 325 Broadway, E/GC Boulder, CO 80303 USA  相似文献   

Personal Narratives as Interactive Texts: Collecting and Interpreting Migrant Life-Histories*     

Miranda Miles  Jonathan Crush 《The Professional geographer》1993,45(1):84-94

Life-history or personal narrative techniques have considerable potential as a way of recovering hidden histories, contesting academic androcentrism, and reinstating the marginalized and dispossessed as makers of their own past. Drawing on a large methodological literature on life-history collection, and applications of these techniques in Africa, we argue that geographers might explore these methodologies as a means of recovering lost geographies and venting alternative voices in academic texts. Drawing on our own project on Swazi migrant women, we suggest that life-histories cannot, however, be seen purely as vehicles for the delivery of uncontaminated fact about the past. Rather personal narratives should be viewed and interpreted as interactive texts. This leads us to a consideration of a number of methodological and interpretive issues surrounding life-history collection: the positional advantages of insider status, the “terrible assymetries” of the interview process, and the power (and pitfalls) of narrative forms of representation.  相似文献