Would different methodologies for assessing carbon leakage exposure lead to different risk levels? A case study of the Brazilian industry     

Luan Santos  André F. P. Lucena  Rafael Garaffa 《Climate Policy》2019,19(9):1102-1116

Energy-intensive industries play an important role in low-carbon development, being particularly exposed to climate policies. Concern over possible carbon leakage in this sector poses a major challenge for designing effective carbon pricing instruments (CPI). Different methodologies for assessing carbon leakage exposure are currently used by different jurisdictions, each of them based on different approaches and indicators. This paper aims to analyse the extent to which the use of different methodologies leads to different results in terms of exposure to the risk of carbon leakage, using the Brazilian industry sector as a case study. Results indicate that carbon leakage exposure is an expected outcome of eventual CPI implementation in Brazilian industry. However, results vary according to the chosen methodology, so the definition of the criteria is paramount for assessing sectoral exposure to the risk of carbon leakage.

Key policy insights

• Despite increasing discussion about the implementation of carbon pricing on the Brazilian industrial sector, the evaluation of carbon leakage risks is still neglected.

• Assessments of the risk of carbon leakage are directly related to the indicators and criteria used by each methodology. Thus, a given subsector may present different levels of exposure to carbon leakage depending on the methodological choice.

• More than a purely technical discussion, the methodological definition of carbon leakage risk is a political discussion – it can be well-conducted, leading to the success of a CPI, or even sabotaged, by implicitly subsidizing energy-intensive industries.

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Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate?     

Gorka Merino  Manuel Barange  Julia L. Blanchard  James Harle  Robert Holmes  Icarus Allen  Edward H. Allison  Marie Caroline Badjeck  Nicholas K. Dulvy  Jason Holt  Simon Jennings  Christian Mullon  Lynda D. Rodwell 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(4):795-806

Expansion in the world's human population and economic development will increase future demand for fish products. As global fisheries yield is constrained by ecosystems productivity and management effectiveness, per capita fish consumption can only be maintained or increased if aquaculture makes an increasing contribution to the volume and stability of global fish supplies. Here, we use predictions of changes in global and regional climate (according to IPCC emissions scenario A1B), marine ecosystem and fisheries production estimates from high resolution regional models, human population size estimates from United Nations prospects, fishmeal and oil price estimations, and projections of the technological development in aquaculture feed technology, to investigate the feasibility of sustaining current and increased per capita fish consumption rates in 2050. We conclude that meeting current and larger consumption rates is feasible, despite a growing population and the impacts of climate change on potential fisheries production, but only if fish resources are managed sustainably and the animal feeds industry reduces its reliance on wild fish. Ineffective fisheries management and rising fishmeal prices driven by greater demand could, however, compromise future aquaculture production and the availability of fish products.  相似文献   

Palaeoceanographic changes in the North Atlantic during the Mid‐Pleistocene Transition (MIS 31–19) as inferred from planktonic foraminiferal and calcium carbonate records     

Iván Hernández‐Almeida  Francisco Javier Sierro  José‐Abel Flores  Isabel Cacho  Gabriel Michael Filippelli 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2013,42(1):140-159

Marine sediments from the Integrated Ocean Drilling Project (IODP) Site U1314 (56.36°N, 27.88°W), in the subpolar North Atlantic, were studied for their planktonic foraminifera, calcium carbonate content, and Neogloboqudrina pachyderma sinistral (sin.) δ¹³C records in order to reconstruct surface and intermediate conditions in this region during the Mid‐Pleistocene Transition (MPT). Variations in the palaeoceanography and regional dynamics of the Arctic Front were estimated by comparing CaCO₃ content, planktonic foraminiferal species abundances, carbon isotopes and ice‐rafted debris (IRD) data from Site U1314 with published data from other North Atlantic sites. Site U1314 exhibited high abundances of the polar planktonic foraminifera N. pachyderma sin. and low CaCO₃ content until Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 26, indicating a relatively southeastward position of the Arctic Front (AF) and penetration of colder and low‐salinity surface arctic water‐masses. Changing conditions after MIS 25, with oscillations in the position of the AF, caused an increase in the northward export of the warmer North Atlantic Current (NAC), indicated by greater abundances of non‐polar planktonic foraminifera and higher CaCO₃. The N. pachyderma sin. δ¹³C data indicate good ventilation of the upper part of the intermediate water layer in the eastern North Atlantic during both glacial and interglacial stages, except during Terminations 24/23, 22/21 and 20/1. In addition, for N. pachyderma (sin.) we distinguished two morphotypes: non‐encrusted and heavily encrusted test. Results indicate that increases in the encrusted morphotype and lower planktonic foraminiferal diversity are related to the intensification of glacial conditions (lower sea‐surface temperatures, sea‐ice formation) during MIS 22 and 20.  相似文献   

Process length variation of the cyst of the dinoflagellate Protoceratium reticulatum in the North Pacific and Baltic‐Skagerrak region: calibration as an annual density proxy and first evidence of pseudo‐cryptic speciation     

Kenneth Neil Mertens  Manuel Bringué  Nicolas Van Nieuwenhove  Yoshihito Takano  Vera Pospelova  Andre Rochon  Anne De Vernal  Taoufik Radi  Barrie Dale  R. Timothy Patterson  Kaarina Weckström  Elinor Andrén  Stephen Louwye  Kazumi Matsuoka 《第四纪科学杂志》2012,27(7):734-744

Process length variation of cysts of the dinoflagellate Protoceratium reticulatum (Claparède et Lachmann) Bütschli in surface sediments from the North Pacific was investigated. The average process length showed a significant inverse relation to annual seawater density: σ_{t annual} = ?0.8674 × average process length + 1029.3 (R² = 0.84), with a standard error of 0.78 kg m^?3. A sediment trap study from Effingham Inlet in British Columbia revealed the same relationship between average process length and local seawater density variations. In the Baltic–Skagerrak region, the average process length variation was related significantly to annual seawater density: σ_{t annual} = 3.5457 × average process length ? 993.28 (R² = 0.86), with a standard error of 3.09 kg m^?3. These calibrations cannot be reconciled, which accentuates the regional character of the calibrations. This can be related to variations in molecular data (small subunit, long subunit and internal transcribed spacer sequences), which show the presence of several genotypes and the occurrence of pseudo‐cryptic speciation within this species. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The last deglaciation in the Picos de Europa National Park (Cantabrian Mountains,northern Spain)     

Ana Moreno  Blas L. Valero‐Garcés  Montserrat Jiménez‐Sánchez  María José Domínguez‐Cuesta  M. Pilar Mata  Ana Navas  Penélope González‐Sampériz  Heather Stoll  Pedro Farias  Mario Morellón  J. Pablo Corella  Mayte Rico 《第四纪科学杂志》2010,25(7):1076-1091

A sedimentological and geochemical study of the Lago Enol sequence (Cantabrian Mountains, northern Spain), together with detailed geomorphological mapping, provides a first record of glacier evolution and climate change over the last 40 ka in the Picos de Europa National Park. The Enol glacier retreated from its maximum extent prior to 40 ka BP as demonstrated by the onset of proglacial lacustrine sedimentation in two glaciated depressions: the Comella hollow to the north (before 40 ka BP) and the Lago Enol (before 38 ka BP). These results support previous evidence that the maximum extent of southern European glaciers occurred earlier than in northern Europe. Alternation of homogeneous and laminated proglacial sediments during the glacier retreat illustrate a dynamic glacial evolution during the Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 (40–26 ka BP). A slight warming is detected at 26 ka ago with the change from proglacial sediments (in a lake located in contact to the glacier) to glaciolacustrine sedimentation (in a non‐contact or distal lake). Finally, the onset of organic‐rich sediments took place at 18 ka ago. This last transition occurred in two phases, similarly to the North Atlantic Last Termination, suggesting a link between North Atlantic Deep Water formation oscillations and palaeohydrological variability in the Cantabrian Mountains. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Analytic element modelling for strip aquifers     

José Anderson N. Batista  Edson Wendland  Harry E. Schulz 《水文研究》2012,26(8):1254-1262

The Analytic Element Method (AEM) provides a convenient tool for groundwater flow analysis in unbounded continuous domains. The AEM is based on the superposition of analytic functions, known as elements, useful at both regional and local scales. In this study, analytic elements for strip aquifers are presented. Such aquifers occur in riverine or coastal deposits and in outcrop zones of confined aquifers. Local flow field is modelled indirectly, using a reference plane related to the aquifer domain through the Schwarz‐Christoffel transform. The regional flow is obtained as a solution of the one‐dimensional flow equation. The proposed methodology was tested by modelling two hypothetical situations, which were compared to exact solutions. It is shown that regional boundaries can be reproduced exactly while local fields are adequately reproduced with analytic elements. The developed elements are applied to simulate a real flow field in northeastern Brazil showing good agreement with measured water levels. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Estimating impacts of warming temperatures on California's electricity system     

Jayant A. Sathaye  Larry L. Dale  Peter H. Larsen  Gary A. Fitts  Kevin Koy  Sarah M. Lewis  André Frossard Pereira de Lucena 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(2):499-511

Despite a clear need, little research has been carried out at the regional-level to quantify potential climate-related impacts to electricity production and delivery systems. This paper introduces a bottom-up study of climate change impacts on California's energy infrastructure, including high temperature effects on power plant capacity, transmission lines, substation capacity, and peak electricity demand. End-of-century impacts were projected using the A2 and B1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios. The study quantifies the effect of high ambient temperatures on electricity generation, the capacity of substations and transmission lines, and the demand for peak power for a set of climate scenarios. Based on these scenarios, atmospheric warming and associated peak demand increases would necessitate up to 38% of additional peak generation capacity and up to 31% additional transmission capacity, assuming current infrastructure. These findings, although based on a limited number of scenarios, suggest that additional funding could be put to good use by supporting R&D into next generation cooling equipment technologies, diversifying the power generation mix without compromising the system's operational flexibility, and designing effective demand side management programs.  相似文献   

Study of bond stress–slip relationship and radial dilation in prestressed concrete     

José Mª Benítez  J.C. Gálvez  M.J. Casati 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2013,37(16):2706-2726

This paper presents two test procedures for evaluating the bond stress–slip and the slip–radial dilation relationships when the prestressing force is transmitted by releasing the steel (wire or strand) in precast prestressed elements. The bond stress–slip relationship is obtained with short length specimens, to guarantee uniform bond stress, for three depths of the wire indentation (shallow, medium and deep). An analytical model for bond stress–slip relationship is proposed and compared with the experimental results. The model is also compared with the experimental results of other researchers. Since numerical models for studying bond‐splitting problems in prestressed concrete require experimental data about dilatancy angle (radial dilation), a test procedure is proposed to evaluate these parameters. The obtained values of the radial dilation are compared with the prior estimated by numerical modelling and good agreement is reached. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Subfossil and modern diatom plankton and the paleolimnology of Rotsee (Switzerland) since 1850     

André F. Lotter 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》1989,51(4):338-350

The diatom biostratigraphy of the topmost sediment meter of Rotsee, Central Switzerland, is characterized by a major change fromCyclotella comensis-dominated toStephanodiscus hantzschii/S. parvus-dominated assemblages. A comparison between old phytoplankton samples, taken between 1910–1930, and subfossil diatom assemblages is used for dating the upper 35 cm of the core. There is evidence that the change in dominant diatoms occurred in 1919/20, thus before the opening of an artificial inlet in 1922, and is due to increasing eutrophication. Furthermore, the sedimentary carbonate content can be used as a good indicator for past phytoplankton productivity in Rotsee.  相似文献   

Strato-mesospheric ozone and IMF sector boundary     

Manuel Gil  Jan Laštovička  Reviever L. Křivský 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》1989,33(1):101-103

Summary We find no effect of the interplanetary magnetic field(IMF) sector boundary crossing in ozone at altitudes ranging from the middle stratosphere(10 hPa) to the lower mesosphere(0.4 hPa) at middle latitudes(40°–60° N), based on winter data over the period of December 1979–December 1982.

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Резюме Мы не нaшлu нuкaко о эффекma nересеченuя секmорноŭ рaнuцы межnлaнеmно о мa нumно о nоля в озоне в облaсmu высоm меж?rt;у сре?rt;неŭ сmрamосфероŭ(10 Пa) u нuжнеŭ мезосфероŭ(0,4 Пa) нa сре?rt;нuх шuроmaх(40°–60° с.ш.), nрuменяя зuмнuе ?rt;aнные зa nерuо?rt; ?rt;екaбрь 1979 – ?rt;екaбрь 1982 .

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