An operational multiscale system for hazards prediction, mapping, and response     

David P. Bacon  Nash’at N. Ahmad  Thomas J. Dunn  Michael C. Monteith  Ananthakrishna Sarma 《Natural Hazards》2008,44(3):317-327

By definition, a crisis is a situation that requires assistance to be managed. Hence, response to a crisis involves the merging of local and non-local emergency response personnel. In this situation, it is critical that each participant: (1) know the roles and responsibilities of each of the other participants; (2) know the capabilities of each of the participants; and (3) have a common basis for action. For many types of natural disasters, this entails having a common operational picture of the unfolding events, including detailed information on the weather, both current and forecasted, that may impact on either the emergency itself or on response activities. The Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) is a comprehensive package of hazard prediction models and casualty and damage assessment tools that provides a linkage between a modeled or observed effect and the attendant consequences for populations, infrastructure, and resources, and, hence, provides the common operational picture for emergency response. The Operational Multiscale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) is an atmospheric simulation system that links the latest methods in computational fluid dynamics and high-resolution gridding technologies with numerical weather prediction to provide specific weather analysis and forecast capability that can be merged into the geographic information system framework of CATS. This paper documents the problem of emergency response as an end-to-end system and presents the integrated CATS–OMEGA system as a prototype of such a system that has been used successfully in a number of different situations.  相似文献   

Flood hazard delineation combining geomorphological and hydrological methods: an example in the Northern Iberian Peninsula   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

J. Lastra  E. Fernández  A. Díez-Herrero  J. Marquínez 《Natural Hazards》2008,45(2):277-293

Flood mapping requires the combination and integration of geomorphological and hydrological-hydraulic methods; however, despite this, there is very little scientific literature that compares and validates both methods. Two types of analysis are addressed in the present article. On the one hand, maps of flood plains have been elaborated using geomorphological evidence and historical flood data in the mountainous area of northwestern Spain, covering an area of more then 232 km² of floodplains. On the other hand, a hydrometeorological model has been developed (Clark semidistributed unit hydrograph) in the Sarria River basin (155 km², NW Spain). This basin is not gauged, hence the model was subjected to a goodness-of-fit test of its parameter (curve number) by means of Monte Carlo simulation. The peak flows obtained by means of the hydrological model were used for hydraulic modeling (one-phase, one-dimensional and steady flow) in a 4 km² urban stretch of the river bed. The delineation of surface areas affected by floods since 1918, as well as those analyzed subsequent to the geomorphological study, reveals a high degree of reliability in the delineation of the flooded areas with frequent recurrence intervals (<50 years). If we compare these flooded surface areas with the estimate obtained by the hydrological-hydraulic method we can see that the latter method overestimates the extent of the surface water by 144% for very frequent recurrence intervals (>10 years) and underestimates it as the recurrence interval increases, by up to 80% less floodplain for exceptional events (>500 years). Finally, a management map is put forth combining the most reliable results available by integrating both methods. Originally presented at the Sixth International Conference on Geomorphology.  相似文献   

Impact of lightning on organic matter-rich soils: influence of soil grain size and organic matter content on underground fires     

Vittorio Zanon  Fátima Viveiros  Catarina Silva  Ana Rita Hipólito  Teresa Ferreira 《Natural Hazards》2008,45(1):19-31

A detailed study was carried out on a piece of land that had been struck by lightning during the violent rainstorm that raged over the Island of S?o Miguel (Azores Archipelago) in late October 2006. Temperature and gas measurements (CO₂, CO, H₂S and CH₄) were performed in four study trenches, dug in an area of ∼3 m², where an underground fire had been initiated by the impact with a lightning stroke, followed by the emission of a column of gases and smoke. The soil under study was originally a well-pedogenized about 80 cm thick bed, made of volcanic clayey to silty tephra fallouts and contained 5.5–9.7% of organic matter. The underground fire was monitored for one week and revealed a peak release of 404 ppm CO and 3.4% CO₂ originating from a horizon located about 45 cm under the soil surface. Measurements of temperature, performed one week after the impact, indicated a maximum value of 326°C inside the soil, while 516.5°C were measured on the surface of a lava block interred about 20 cm under the surface. Subsequently, a stratigraphic and sedimentologic study proved the role of the grain-size of the soil and of the organic matter content of the different horizons of the impact area, in determining the ratio between anoxic/oxidised combustion conditions and in the progress of the process itself. It was also noticed that combustion was not total all over in the soil bed and that the process had slightly migrated toward SW during the observation period. The combustion process went on for about ten days, in spite of several other violent rainstorms, until it was artificially extinguished through the excavations made to obtain study trenches. This particular circumstance evidenced the potential natural hazard represented by this kind of atmospheric event, especially in a land where the volcanic nature of the soil may easily mislead inexperienced observers and, consequently, delay proper action.  相似文献   

Numerical modeling of tide-surge interaction along Orissa coast of India     

Prakash C. Sinha  Indu Jain  Neetu Bhardwaj  Ambarukhana D. Rao  Shishir K. Dube 《Natural Hazards》2008,45(3):413-427

The Orissa coast of India is one of the most vulnerable regions of extreme sea levels associated with severe tropical cyclones. There was extensive loss of life and property due to the October 1999 super cyclone, which devastated large part of the Orissa coast. The shallow nature of the head bay, presence of a large number of deltas formed by major rivers of Orissa such as Mahanadi and Dhamra, and high tidal range are responsible for storm surge flooding in the region. Specifically, rising and falling tidal phases influence the height, duration, and arrival time of peak surge along the coast. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the tide-surge interaction during the 1999 Orissa cyclone by using nonlinear vertically integrated numerical models. The pure tidal solution for the head bay region of the Bay of Bengal provides the initial condition for the fine resolution nested grid Orissa model. However, the feedback from the Orissa model does not affect the head bay model as the study provides a one-way interaction. Numerical experiments are performed to study the tide-surge interaction by considering various relative phases of the tidal waves with the surge-wave produced by 1999 Orissa cyclone. The comparison, although utilizing only the limited estimates of tidal data, appears adequate to assert that the principal features are reproduced correctly.  相似文献   

Defect properties of albite     

Stephan Lowitzer  Dan J. Wilson  Björn Winkler  Victor Milman  Julian D. Gale 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2008,35(3):129-135

Knowledge of the defect properties of Lunar and Mercurian minerals has recently become important, with the advent of models which attempt to explain the formation of the thin exosphere of these celestial bodies. Here, we have calculated the formation energies of sodium and oxygen vacancies in the mineral albite (NaAlSi₃O₈), as well as the Schottky defect energy for the removal of a Na₂O unit. We have employed both the supercell and Mott–Littleton approaches, using Kohn–Sham density functional theory and classical interatomic potential methods. As well as reporting the defect energies and structures, we comment upon the relative merits of the methods used.  相似文献   

Si diffusion in zircon     

D. J. Cherniak 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2008,35(4):179-187

Self-diffusion of Si under anhydrous conditions at 1 atm has been measured in natural zircon. The source of diffusant for experiments was a mixture of ZrO₂ and ³⁰Si-enriched SiO₂ in 1:1 molar proportions; experiments were run in crimped Pt capsules in 1-atm furnaces. ³⁰Si profiles were measured with both Rutherford backscattering spectrometry (RBS) and nuclear reaction analysis with the resonant nuclear reaction ³⁰Si(p,γ)³¹P. For Si diffusion normal to c over the temperature range 1,350–1,550°C, we obtain an Arrhenius relation D = 5.8 exp(−702 ± 54 kJ mol⁻¹/RT) m² s⁻¹ for the NRA measurements, which agrees within uncertainty with an Arrhenius relation determined from the RBS measurements [62 exp(−738 ± 61 kJ mol⁻¹/RT) m² s⁻¹]. Diffusion of Si parallel to c appears slightly faster, but agrees within experimental uncertainty at most temperatures with diffusivities for Si normal to c. Diffusion of Si in zircon is similar to that of Ti, but about an order of magnitude faster than diffusion of Hf and two orders of magnitude faster than diffusion of U and Th. Si diffusion is, however, many orders of magnitude slower than oxygen diffusion under both dry and hydrothermal conditions, with the difference increasing with decreasing temperature because of the larger activation energy for Si diffusion. If we consider Hf as a proxy for Zr, given its similar charge and size, we can rank the diffusivities of the major constituents in zircon as follows: D _Zr < D _Si << D _{O, dry} < D _{O, ‘wet’}.  相似文献   

Memorial landscapes: analytic questions and metaphors   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Owen J. Dwyer  Derek H. Alderman 《GeoJournal》2008,73(3):165-178

Over the past two decades, geographers have probed the intersection of collective memory and urban space. Their sustained interest in the subject reflects an understanding of the social condition of commemoration and the important role that space plays in the process and politics of collective memory. Along with other critical social scientists, geographers envision these public symbols as part of larger cultural landscapes that reflect and legitimate the normative social order. A review of the extant literature indicates that geographers scrutinize memorial landscapes through three conceptual lenses that may be understood via the metaphors of ‘text,’ ‘arena,’ and ‘performance.’ These metaphors are in turn mobilized through a series of analytic questions that serve to identify the interests served and denied by landscape ‘texts,’ the ‘arenas’ in which they are produced, and the ways in which they are enacted via ‘performance.’ This article’s synopsis of the subfield’s predominant metaphors and its attendant questions contributes to the ongoing cultural geographic project of articulating and implementing methods for interpreting landscapes as open-ended symbolic systems.

Derek H. AldermanEmail:

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Structural investigation of the synthetic CaAn(PO4)2 (An = Th and Np) cheralite-like phosphates     

Philippe E. Raison  Regis Jardin  Daniel Bouëxière  Rudy J. M. Konings  Thorsten Geisler  Claudiu C. Pavel  Jean Rebizant  Karin Popa 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2008,35(10):603-609

The crystallographic structures of the synthetic cheralite, CaTh(PO₄)₂, and its homolog CaNp(PO₄)₂ have been investigated by X-ray diffraction at room temperature. Rietveld analyses showed that both compounds crystallize in the monoclinic system and are isostructural to monazite LnPO₄ (Ln = La to Gd). The space group is P2₁/n (I.T. = 14) with Z = 2. The refined lattice parameters of CaTh(PO₄)₂ are a = 6.7085(8) Å, b = 6.9160(6) Å, c = 6.4152(6) Å, and β = 103.71(1)° with best fit parameters R _wp = 4.87%, R _p = 3.69% and R _B = 3.99%. For CaNp(PO₄)₂, we obtained a = 6.6509(5) Å, b = 6.8390(3) Å, c = 6.3537(8) Å, and β = 104.12(6)° and R _wp = 6.74%, R _p = 5.23%, and R _B = 6.05%. The results indicate significant distortions of bond length and angles of the PO₄ tetrahedra in CaTh(PO₄)₂ and to a lesser extent in CaNp(PO₄)₂. The structural distortions were confirmed by Raman spectroscopy of CaTh(PO₄)₂. A comparison with the isostructural compounds LnPO₄ (Ln = Ce and Sm) confirmed that the substitution of the large rare earth trivalent cations with Ca²⁺ and Th⁴⁺ introduces a distortion of the PO₄ tetrahedra.  相似文献   

人工合成烃类包裹体研究进展   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

陈勇  葛云锦 《地质论评》2008,54(6):807-813

人工合成烃类包裹体不仅可以作为分析仪器校正的标样,还可以增进人们对烃类包裹体形成机制和水—岩作用机理的认识。人工合成包裹体的方法主要有三种：人工晶体生长法、焊封石英管法和金刚石压腔法,其中利用愈合人工石英(水晶)单晶裂隙合成流体包裹体技术已成为标准的合成技术。目前人工合成烃类包裹体主要利用晶体生长法合成,包括高温高压利用石英（或方解石）晶体生长愈合裂缝形成流体包裹体和低温下采用过饱和溶液重结晶形成流体包裹体。由于高温高压条件下烃类可能发生裂解,母液保真是成功实现人工合成烃类包裹体的重要前提条件。国外在人工合成烃类包裹体研究方面已经取得了一些重要的认识,但远不及人工合成无机体系流体包裹体研究那样系统和完善。国内关于人工合成烃类包裹体研究尚处于起步阶段,迫切需要开展这方面的研究工作。  相似文献   

Biaxial test simulations using a packing of polygonal particles   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

A. A. Peña  A. Lizcano  F. Alonso‐Marroquin  H. J. Herrmann 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2008,32(2):143-160

The mechanical response of cohesionless granular materials under monotonic loading is studied by performing molecular dynamic simulations. The diversity of shapes of soil grains is modelled by using randomly generated convex polygons as granular particles. Results of the biaxial test obtained for dense and loose media show that samples achieve the same void ratio at large strains independent of their initial density state. This limit state resembles the so‐called critical state of soil mechanics, except for some stress fluctuations, which remain for large deformations. These fluctuations are studied at the micro‐mechanical level, by following the evolution of the co‐ordination number, force chains and the fraction of the sliding contacts of the sample. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献