Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

David W. Pierce  Tapash Das  Daniel R. Cayan  Edwin P. Maurer  Norman L. Miller  Yan Bao  M. Kanamitsu  Kei Yoshimura  Mark A. Snyder  Lisa C. Sloan  Guido Franco  Mary Tyree 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(3-4):839-856

Sixteen global general circulation models were used to develop probabilistic projections of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) changes over California by the 2060s. The global models were downscaled with two statistical techniques and three nested dynamical regional climate models, although not all global models were downscaled with all techniques. Both monthly and daily timescale changes in T and P are addressed, the latter being important for a range of applications in energy use, water management, and agriculture. The T changes tend to agree more across downscaling techniques than the P changes. Year-to-year natural internal climate variability is roughly of similar magnitude to the projected T changes. In the monthly average, July temperatures shift enough that that the hottest July found in any simulation over the historical period becomes a modestly cool July in the future period. Januarys as cold as any found in the historical period are still found in the 2060s, but the median and maximum monthly average temperatures increase notably. Annual and seasonal P changes are small compared to interannual or intermodel variability. However, the annual change is composed of seasonally varying changes that are themselves much larger, but tend to cancel in the annual mean. Winters show modestly wetter conditions in the North of the state, while spring and autumn show less precipitation. The dynamical downscaling techniques project increasing precipitation in the Southeastern part of the state, which is influenced by the North American monsoon, a feature that is not captured by the statistical downscaling.  相似文献   

The coupling coefficients of pulsation for radiative stellar models     

F. Yamakawa  T. Ishida  M. Takeuti 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1993,210(1-2):347-348

The second order theory of coupling is discussed regarding the radial pulsation of stellar models which are constructed ignoring convection. The formula including the nonadiabatic effect is presented. Numerical values given for model classical cepheids are considerably greater than the adiabatic values.  相似文献   

Relationship of topography to surface water chemistry with particular focus on nitrogen and organic carbon solutes within a forested watershed in Hokkaido,Japan     

Akiko Ogawa  Hideaki Shibata  Kei Suzuki  Myron J. Mitchell  Yoshiyuki Ikegami 《水文研究》2006,20(2):251-265

We studied the relationships between streamwater chemistry and the topography of subcatchments in the Dorokawa watershed in Hokkaido Island, northern Japan, to examine the use of topography as a predictor of streamwater chemistry in a watershed with relatively moderate terrain compared with other regions of Japan. Topographic characteristics of the Dorokawa watershed and its subcatchments were expressed as topographic index (TI) values, which ranged from 4·5 to 20·4 for individual grid cells (50 × 50 m²), but averaged from 6·4 to 7·4 for the 20 subcatchments. Streamwater samples for chemical analyses were collected four times between June and October 2002 from 20 locations in the watershed. The pH of water that passed through the watershed increased from ～5·0 to 7·0, with major increases in Na⁺ and Ca²⁺ and marked decreases in NO₃^? and SO . Distinctive spatial patterns were observed for dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved organic nitrogen (DON), and NO₃^? concentrations of streamwater across the watershed. Statistical analyses indicated significant linear relationships between the average TI values of subcatchments and DOC, DON, and NO₃^? concentrations. Furthermore, the proportion of DOC in streamwaters in the wet season increased with TI values relative to other nitrogen species, whereas NO₃^? concentrations decreased with TI. The gradients of soil wetness and the presence of wetlands explained many of the observed spatial and temporal patterns of DOC, DON, and NO₃^? concentrations in the surface waters of the Dorokawa watershed. Our results suggest that the TI is especially useful for predicting the spatial distribution of DOC, DON and NO₃^? in the surface waters of Hokkaido, where topographical relief is moderate and wetlands more common than in other regions of Japan. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Linking Individual and Collective Agency for Enhancing Community Resilience in Northern Ghana     

Kei Otsuki  Godfred Jasaw  Victor Lolig 《社会与自然资源》2018,31(2):151-165

This article aims to explore the relationship between individual adaptive actions and enhancement of community resilience to climate change as a communal objective. It proposes to pay attention to the concept of reflexivity as the primary individual capacity to link adaptive actions and community resilience. Drawing on the field research conducted in northern Ghana in 2015, this article specifically examines life histories of four small farmers and shows that they individually take adaptive actions and reflect on these actions. However, little opportunity exists for them to systematically communicate the reflections with others to learn from their experiences, nurture collective agency and enhance community resilience. The article concludes by outlining new strategies needed to facilitate the communication in particular cultural and policy contexts.  相似文献   

Dynamic analysis of structures with Maxwell model     

Tomohiko Hatada  Takuji Kobori  Masatoshi Ishida  Naoki Niwa 《地震工程与结构动力学》2000,29(2):159-176

A numerical method has been developed for the dynamic analysis of a tall building structure with viscous dampers. Viscous dampers are installed between the top of an inverted V‐shaped brace and the upper beam on each storey to reduce vibrations during strong disturbances like earthquakes. Analytically, it is modelled as a multi‐degree‐of freedom (MDOF) system with the Maxwell models. First, the computational method is formulated in the time domain by introducing a finite element of the Maxwell model into the equation of motion in the discrete‐time system, which is based on the direct numerical integration. Next, analyses for numerical stability and accuracy of the proposed method are discussed. The results show its numerical stability. Finally, the proposed method is applied to the numerical analysis of a realistic building structure to demonstrate its practical validity.  相似文献   

Development of a 2-km resolution ocean model covering the coastal seas around Japan for operational application     

Sakamoto  Kei  Tsujino  Hiroyuki  Nakano  Hideyuki  Urakawa  Shogo  Toyoda  Takahiro  Hirose  Nariaki  Usui  Norihisa  Yamanaka  Goro 《Ocean Dynamics》2019,69(10):1181-1202

Ocean Dynamics - In order to expand the coastal ocean monitoring and forecasting system of the Japan Meteorological Agency from the Seto Inland Sea to the entire coastal seas of Japan, a 2-km...  相似文献   

Recovery of groundwater in the Sanriku region contaminated by the tsunami inundation from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake     

Ichirow Kaihotsu  Shin-ichi Onodera  Jun Shimada  Kei Nakagawa 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(6):250

Many wells in the Sanriku region used as sources for water supply systems were heavily contaminated by the tsunami of the 2011 great Tohoku earthquake on March 11 in 2011. To better understand the nature of the groundwater contamination by the tsunami inundation and to clarify the recovery process of contaminated groundwater at the study wells, groundwater monitoring has been conducted once or twice yearly since early summer in 2011. High and abnormal values of electric conductivity (EC), chloride ion concentration (CIC), Na⁺, Ca⁺, heavy metal ions, and heavier isotopes of the contaminated groundwater were also obtained in April and June 2011. The chemical elements have rapidly and exponentially decreased as a result of effective pumping of the contaminated groundwater from the study wells and because of abundant rainfall in 2011. In April 2015 (about 4 years after the tsunami inundation), the CIC and EC of the contaminated groundwater of two study wells in Minamisanriku town had reached pre-inundation values. The estimated residence times of groundwater of the two study wells were 105–118 days in the full-day pumping stage and 910–1000 days in the daytime-only pumping stage.  相似文献   

Effects of CO₂ on benthic biota: An in situ benthic chamber experiment in Storfjorden (Norway)     

Hiroshi Ishida  Lars G. Golmen  Julia West  Martin Krüger  Patricia Coombs  John Arthur Berge  Tastuo Fukuhara  Michimasa Magi  Jun Kita 《Marine pollution bulletin》2013

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) methods, either sub-seabed or in ocean depths, introduces risk of CO₂ leakage and subsequent interaction with the ecosystem. It is therefore important to obtain information on possible effects of CO₂. In situ CO₂ exposure experiments were carried out twice for 10 days during 2005 using a Benthic Chamber system at 400 m depth in Storfjorden, Norway. pCO₂ in the water above the sediment in the chambers was controlled at approximately 500, 5000 and 20,000 μatm, respectively. This article describes the experiment and the results from measured the biological responses within the chamber sediments. The results show effects of elevated CO₂ concentrations on biological processes such as increased nanobenthos density. Methane production and sulphate reduction was enhanced in the approximately 5000 μatm chamber.  相似文献   

Induction of tributyltin-binding protein type 2 in Japanese flounder, Paralichthys olivaceus, by exposure to tributyltin-d27     

Nassef M  Tawaratsumita T  Oba Y  Satone H  Nakayama K  Shimasaki Y  Honjo T  Oshima Y 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(2):412-414

In this study, individual Japanese flounder were intraperitoneally injected with 2 μg tributyltin-d27 (TBT-d27) fish⁻¹. Blood samples were collected on day 7 after injection. TBT-binding protein types 1 and 2 (TBT-bp1, -bp2) in the blood serum were quantified by western blotting analysis. As a result, the concentration of TBT-bp2 in TBT-d27 treated group increased to 220% of that in the solvent control, whereas the TBT-bp1 concentration decreased to 65% of that in the solvent control. Additionally, a positive relationship between the concentrations of TBT-bp2 and TBT was observed in blood sera of wild and cultured flounder. We suggest that TBT-bp2 is produced in response to TBT exposure and may play an important role in fish physiology.  相似文献   

Disruption of Sema3A expression causes abnormal neural projection in heavy oil exposed Japanese flounder larvae     

Kawaguchi M  Song JY  Irie K  Murakami Y  Nakayama K  Kitamura S 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,63(5-12):356-361

It has been well known that oil spills cause serious problems in the aquatic organisms. In particular, some species of teleosts, which develop on the sea surface thought to be affected by heavy oil (HO). During the embryogenesis, the nervous system is constructed. Therefore, it is important to study the toxicological effects of HO on the developing neurons. We exposed HO to eggs of Japanese flounder (Paralichthys olivaceus) and investigated the neural disorder. In larvae exposed by HO at the concentration of 8.75 mg/L, the facial and lateral line nerves partially entered into the incorrect region and the bundle was defasciculated. Furthermore, in the HO-exposed larvae, Sema3A, a kind of axon guidance molecule, was broadly expressed in second pharyngeal arch, a target region of facial nerve. Taken together, we suggested the possibility that the abnormal expression of Sema3A affected by HO exposure causes disruption of facial nerve scaffolding.  相似文献